** #1 M&A WATCH- Medhat Khalil & Co to submit mandatory offer for 100% of Raya? Conflicting media reports emerged yesterday over reports that Raya founder Medhat Khalil is leading a group that will submit a mandatory tender offer (MTO) to acquire 100% of Raya Holding for Financial Investments by 27 November. Khalil, the company’s chairman, was quoted in the local press (here and here) as saying he would submit an MTO next month to acquire 100% of Raya at EGP 10 per share. The reports claim that Khalil is making the bid after the Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) ordered that he do so or reduce his holdings, having found that Khalil and related parties control a combined 42% stake in the company. Under securities regulations, going over the 33% ownership mark triggers the MTO requirement.
The MTO wasn’t ordered by the regulator? Khalil denied in a statement to the EGX (pdf) that his company had received any such notice from FRA — and said that he and his immediate family own less than one third of Raya’s shares.
Unwinding Raya trades: The news prompted the EGX yesterday to reverse all transactions on Raya’s shares from Monday and Tuesday, the local press claims, meaning the stock is expected to open today’s session at EGP 6.49 per share.
Khalil is buying at a premium if he goes ahead with the MTO by month’s end. EGP 10 is nearly 45% above the company’s share price prior to the announcement. Shuaa Securities Egypt said in a research note yesterday that “not only is it relatively [inexpensive], but it is also trading at below book value.”
What is Raya, anyway? It’s not the same beast that once sold you your beloved Nokia and that bet the house on becoming the nation’s third mobile network operator, losing to Etisalat, well over a decade ago. Today, Raya is an investment company with a private-equity-like mindset. That attitude saw it spin off Raya Contact Centers (Egypt’s largest provider of outsourcing services) last year in an IPO. In addition to Raya Contact Center (where it is still majority shareholder), Raya’s investments today include:
- BariQ, an exporter of recycled PET;
- E-payments outfit Aman;
- Plenty of food investments, including Ovio (one of our favorite restaurants in our fair town) and frozen food producers, a pasta business (in Poland, of all places);
- A partnership to build a washing machine plant with Samsung;
- And other ventures ranging from data centers to a tuktuk partnership with Piaggio and venture into Uganda.
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M&A WATCH- NBE to acquire another 2% of Arab Contractors subsidiary? Arab Contractors reportedly sold another 2% of its shares in Mostakbal Urban Developments to state-owned National Bank of Egypt (NBE) in an EGP 1.2 bn transaction yesterday, unnamed sources tell Al Mal.
Advisers: HC Securities acted as the sell-side advisor to Arab Contractors while Beltone Securities was buy-side legal counsel.
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** #2 INVESTMENT WATCH- Emaar Properties boss Mohamed Alabbar is looking to acquire a hotel in Cairo amid plans to grow his company’s investments in Egypt, Al Mal reports, citing unnamed sources. No details on the size of the potential investment or the name of the hotel were provided. The iconic UAE business leader reportedly expressed interest in the potential transaction to Tourism Minister Rania Al Mashat, according to the sources. Alabbar said in July he would invest EGP 6 bn to develop six hotels by 2021 at Marassi, his company’s North Coast resort. He had also said he aims to double Emaar’s Egypt investments to EGP 100 bn over the next five years.
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** #3 When government policy works, part II: The Black Cloud. For as long as many of us at Enterprise have been alive, Cairenes have choked each fall on the acrid “black smoke” that blankets our fair city. The cause? The burning of straw by rice farmers. But this autumn has been particularly smoke-free, and you can thank a government program that gave traders an EGP 50 per-ton incentive to buy the straw from farmers, Reuters reports, citing remarks by Mohamed Salah, head of the Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency. The straw is then sold as animal feed, the newswire reports, though we have primarily seen it used in waste-to-energy programs.
This is the second time this week we’ve found evidence that smart policy can make a difference. The government’s white cab program, which pulled ancient taxis off the roadways by providing subsidized finance for new vehicles, slashed Egypt’s carbon dioxide emissions by 310k tonnes in 2013-2017, according to a World Bank report we noted on Monday.
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** #4 Burgeoning relationship with Beijing is “win-win” for Cairo: Egypt’s ties with China have been taking strides since 2014, when the two countries signed a strategic agreement to boost trade, investment, and political ties as President Abdel Fattah El Sisi began looking to diversify Egypt’s allies, Heba Saleh writes for the Financial Times. Since then, Chinese tourists and investment have been flowing into Egypt, making both countries happy as Beijing pushes its Belt and Road initiative and Cairo attracts investment for major infrastructure projects. “There are economic powers who have the ability to help us but not the desire, and others who have the desire but not the ability,” said Mostafa Ibrahim, deputy head of the China committee in the Egyptian Businessmen’s Association. “China tops the list of those who have both the ability and the desire.” China also serves as the perfect kind of friend for Egypt in that — unlike the US and Europe — it remains unconcerned with rights issues and maintains a “policy of non-interference in other countries’ affairs,” Saleh notes.
Also in the China file this morning: Chinese electric car manufacturers see Egypt as a market with potential, according to China Daily. The drive to for EVs is being led by Darshal, the local agent of China’s Dongfeng and Vasworld Power. The Egyptian market “has a great potential with its high purchasing power and unique location as a gateway to Africa and the Arab countries,” said Vasworld Power CEO Wang Li. “Wang said now is the right time to enter the Egyptian market and prepare to reap benefits of the Belt and Road Initiative and the close ties between Egypt and China.”
Saleh’s piece anchors a package from the FT headlined New Trade Routes: Arab World. Other entries include:
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Also on the foreign policy front: Turkey is setting up a confrontation in the Eastern Med over natural gas exploration rights. Ankara, having already its regional rivals against further exploration in Cypriot waters, has deployed its “first deep-sea drilling ship, flanked by Turkish war vessels” to explore for “natural gas and oil in contested waters of the Mediterranean.” The move is likely to “exacerbate longstanding tensions with Greece,” Bloomberg reports.
Background: Turkey sent naval forces earlier this year into Cypriot waters to try to block the deployment of an Eni exploration rig. The move came just months before Egypt and Cyprus — anchors of a regional triad with Greece that is cooperating on economic and security policies — signed an agreement that paves the way for the export of Cypriot natural gas to Egypt, which is emerging as the premier energy hub in the Eastern Med.
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Egypt and Germany signed a four-year economic cooperation protocol yesterday worth EUR 129 mn, according to an Investment Ministry statement. Of the total, EUR 45 mn will be allocated to economic development initiatives, while EUR 43 mn will be spent on energy projects, and EUR 39 mn on water-related projects, and another EUR 2 mn on youth-targeted projects. The two sides also signed MoUs that cover vocational training and scientific research, as well as an agreement to establish a German university for applied sciences at the new administrative capital.
Siemens AG CEO Joe Kaeser had plenty of nice things to say about Egypt and efforts to revitalize the economy and improve infrastructure, Egypt Today reports. Kaeser’s comments came in his speech yesterday addressing the G20 Africa Investment Summit in Berlin, where President Abdel Fattah El Sisi was in attendance, alongside 11 other African leaders and heads of major international organizations.
This came as German Chancellor Angela Merkel pledged yesterday to establish a new African-focused development fund that would “tackle unemployment in Africa,” which she sees as a main reason behind illegal migration to Europe, Reuters says. Illegal migration was among the issues that came up during El Sisi’s talks with Merkel yesterday, which focused mainly on bilateral cooperation across the board, as well as regional issues, Ittihadiya said in a statement. (For background on Africa’s unemployment problem, see yesterday’s Worth Reading.)
El Sisi’s visit to Germany had the talking heads buzzing, with coverage yesterday on Yadhoth fi Masr (watch, runtime: 2:37), Hona Al Asema (watch, runtime: 9:27), Masaa DMC (watch here, runtime: 6:16, here, runtime: 7:52, and here, runtime: 1:01:18), and Al Hayah Al Youm (watch here, runtime: 11:12 and here, runtime: 7:44).
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Stretching for relevance, any kind of relevance: How the Khashoggi case could spell trouble for Egypt’s economy. The spillover effect from the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi serves as a “potential economic risk” for Egypt, Rob Cox writes for Reuters’ BreakingViews. Egypt is heavily dependent on remittances from its expats working in the kingdom, and Saudi visitors comprised a significant chunk of Egypt’s tourist arrivals. “Any fallout, such as U.S. sanctions, from the killing of the Saudi journalists by agents of the Riyadh government could dent Egypt’s recovery. Following a currency devaluation in 2016 and austerity measures, a steady flow of USD from Saudi is critical to buttressing reserves as the Egyptian central bank struggles to reduce inflation and interest rates.” If investors are scared out of KSA as a result of Khashoggi’s death, the ripple effect would be certain to hit Egypt as well, Cox says.
Please don’t get us started. It’s Halloween. All we want is chocolate. Lots and lots of chocolate.
The Khashoggi case is receding from the headlines, with most notable coverage in recent days including a New York Times op-ed by Obama administration national security advisor Susan Rice calling MbS “a partner we can’t depend on” and the Wall Street Journal suggesting that MbS’ position as crown prince is “appears secure” as “Saudi Arabia’s royal family is closing ranks to protect the monarchy from a storm of criticism.” Meanwhile, former NYT Cairo reporter Kareem Fahim is part of a Washington Post team with a long, solid take in the form of Crown prince Mohammed bin Salman is ‘chief of the tribe’ in a cowed House of Saud.
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** #5 IPO WATCH- Orientals for Urban Development eyeing 2019 IPO: Oriental Weavers sister company Orientals for Urban Development (OUD) is looking at a potential IPO in 2H2019, Chairman Asser Hamdy said. According to Hamdy, the company is studying hiring an adviser for the transaction, and expects to make a choice in 2019. The company is also planning to invest EGP 3 bn next year in its residential and commercial projects and hotels, including the inauguration of two new hotels in the North Coast and Marsa Alam, as well as construction works on a mall in East Cairo and two residential compounds — Janoub in the new capital and Heliopolis Hills in Obour City.
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EARNINGS WATCH- Edita Food Industries recorded a net profit of EGP 89.4 mn in 3Q2018, up 34.1% y-o-y, up from EGP 66.7 mn, according to the company’s earnings release (pdf). Net revenue for the quarter was up 22.2% to EGP 1.02 bn, driven by “higher volumes and improvements in product mix,” as well as export sales. “Our third quarter results clearly reflect Edita’s ability to capture market growth and capitalize on new fundamentals and consumer dynamics. Our volumes continued to grow compared to both the previous year and last quarter, while our profitability is witnessing marked improvement as we control costs and benefit from economies of scale,” Edita Chairman Hani Berzi said. The quarter also saw the leading snack producer maintaining its market position in its core segments, holding a nearly 54% share of the cake market and growing its share of the croissant market to 64.5%. Edita’s primary focus for the coming year will be driving volumes and sales upwards while defending its market share, as well as expanding its footprint in the region.
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REGULATION WATCH- FRA signs off on same-day trading for category B of securities eligible for ‘special activities’: The Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) signed off yesterday on a proposal from the EGX that allows same-day trading on stocks that are on its category 'B' list of securities eligible for “specialized activities.” The policy will allow brokerage firms freedom to decide which securities from the list to make eligible for T+0 trades, according to an FRA statement.
Background: The move is the latest in string of policy amendments that aim to boost stock market liquidity by introducing new trading tools and mechanisms. Earlier this month, the FRA was said to be scraping a rule requires listed companies to seek approval from the FRA and the EGX for stock splits. The authority had also had also decidedto slash annual service fees for listed companies, introducing a new tiered system that sets fees based on capital.
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LEGISLATION WATCH- Foreign embassies to be subject to reciprocal tax treatment on real estate tax: When it comes to paying real estate taxes, foreign embassies in Egypt will get reciprocal treatment, meaning they’ll pay (or not pay) the same taxes as Egyptian embassies do in each of those countries, Real Estate Tax Authority head Samia Hussein said yesterday, Al Mal reports. The House of Representatives’ economics and housing committee are expected to meet this month to discuss the government's proposed amendments to the Real Estate Tax Act, which are expected to cover everything from new real estate tax formula to how rented properties would be taxed, how properties would be appraised, and avenues for appeals. Reps. said they expect to complete their review by the end of 2018.
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MOVES- Mustafa Mousa (not to be confused with the former presidential candidate) has been made partner at Bahaa-Eldin Law Office in cooperation with BonelliErede, Al Mal reports. Mousa previously served as chairman of Assiut Islamic National Trade and Development.
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