
Egypt beat South Africa to the top stop of Rand Merchant Bank’s “Where to Invest in Africa” report for 2018. This is the first time South Africa has not been in top spot since the report was initiated seven years ago, Fin24 reports. Analyst Celeste Fauconnier tells Bloomberg TV that Egypt came ahead of South Africa because of its better economic growth prospects, despite lagging behind in terms of business environment. The report contained a “surprise” in its omission of Nigeria and Algeria from the Top 10 list “due to the erosion of its short-term investment appeal by recessionary conditions,” Fauconnier explains. Overall, the report said Africa could be “on the brink of disaster” if its economies do not become more diversified. While Morocco, Ethiopia, Ghana, and Kenya followed to make up the top six respectively, a standout entry was Rwanda, which reentered the list in eighth position. The report says Rwanda was helped by being one of the fastest reforming economies in the world, with high real growth rates and making a continuing attempt to diversify its economy.
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The government will decide the specifics of its coming bond issuance in the coming two weeks, including whether it will begin by issuing eurobonds denominated in EUR or in USD as well as the timing of the issuances, Finance Minister Amr El Garhy told Reuters in an interview. The aim of issuing EUR-denominated eurobonds is to diversify the basket of currencies in Egypt’s funding mix, he says. A roadshow to support the issuance is in the cards.
El Garhy added that it was not settled yet whether the government will use the same issuers and arrangers as in last time’s issuances or not. The previous eurobond issuance was managed by BNP Paribas, Citigroup, JP Morgan, and Natixis. El Garhy added that he expects the economic growth rate in 1Q 2017-18 to come in between 4.75-5%.
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Moody’s obstinance on credit rating continues: “Egypt's B3 stable credit profile reflects its large and diversified economy and strong reform momentum, set against constraints which include its very weak government finances,” Moody's said in an annual report yesterday. The credit agency insists that its rating on Egypt strikes the right balance between progress on the economic reforms and government debt levels.
Moody’s wants to see “faster-than-expected” progress on the reform program beforemoving to raise Egypt’s credit rating — because a 180° change in a year and a half is apparently not fast enough. (Do we really need to remind any of you that, as recently as a year ago, it felt as if we were driving the economy off a cliff Thelma and Louise style, giving every appearance that we didn’t particularly care?) Moody’s, a leading player in an industry whose vigilance and careful attention to conflict of interest guidelines helped bring us the Global Financial Crisis, also wants to see more rapid fiscal consolidation and improvements in debt metrics. “Conversely, any signs of reform slowdown would jeopardize the stable outlook,” it warned.
That said, the agency did acknowledge progress. "Although Egypt's economic growth is still below pre-revolution levels, it has started to pick up, and investor sentiment has also improved on the back of strengthened reform momentum," said Steffen Dyck, a Moody's Vice President and co-author of the report. "We also expect that Egypt's high fiscal deficits and government debt levels will gradually reduce."
Moody’s sees the budget deficit in FY2017-18 reaching 10% of GDP, higher than 9.2% projected by the government, but down from 12.1% of GDP in FY2015-16. It sees GDP growth reaching 5%, but only in FY2018-19.
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Egypt will be the major driver of growth for Attijariwafa Bank in coming years, and the bank plans to expand operations her significantly by adding new branches and hiring staff, Tamim Elyan writes for Bloomberg. General Manager Ismail Douiri expects the Egyptian unit to contribute 12-14% of the group’s net income on 2018 as revenue is set to grow by 20-25% a year, the most among its foreign units. “In Egypt, everything we saw as a potential is materializing and can grow even faster than we initially thought,” Douiri says, adding that the Egyptian unit “is not only an important contributor today, but it will also be a major growth driver tomorrow.” Attijariwafa acquired Barclays’ Egyptian unit earlier this year and it now operates in more than 20 countries including Tunisia, Niger, Gabon and Cameroon, as well as France, Germany and Italy.
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IPO WATCH- BPE Partners has tapped EFG Hermes to Sigma Capital to manage is planned listing on the EGX this year, source told Al Mal. The company has said it plans to list 25-30% of its shares. Zaki Hashem & Partners are legal advisors on the transaction and Grant Thornton is preparing the fair value assessment.
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IPO WATCH- Clothing outfit Dice’s general assembly approved a plan to list 65% of its shares on the EGX, sources close to the matter tell Al Borsa. The newspaper had previously reported that the company was considering listing up to 49%. The assembly also ratified the fair value share price of EGP 30.90 established by Pharos Holding in its capacity as independent financial advisor on the transaction. EFG Hermes was tapped to manage the listing, while Matouk Bassiouny is serving as legal counsel.
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Is the Finance Ministry looking to exempt certain oil and gas activities from the VAT? The Finance Ministry has put together a preliminary list of oil and gas exploration and drilling operations which may be exempt from the value-added tax (VAT), said Vice Minister of Finance Amr El Monayer, according to Al Mal. The list has been sent to the EGPC for review, he added. Apparently, the government had been planning on setting an exemption list of oil and gas activities for some time now but hadn't gotten around to it. Under the current VAT law, the sale of oil, gas and other minerals is VAT-exempt, but activities associated with their exploration and extraction are not.
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The resumption of Russian flights to Egypt probably won’t happen before the winter season, Vice President of the Russian Union of Travel Industry Uri Barzykin tells Russia’s Parliamentary Gazette. Cairo Airport’s security measures have passed Moscow’s inspections, but security at the Sharm El Sheikh and Hurghada airports are more important, Barzykin says.
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China is expected to edge out the European Union and become Egypt’s “fastest growinginvestment partner,” Trade and Industry Minister Tarek Kabil tells Reuters in an interview. The minister pointed to the benefits Egypt stands to gain from the Belt and Road initiative, pointing out that negotiations were already ongoing “with major [Chinese] players in terms of textiles and automotives.”
Speaking on the second day of the Euromoney Egypt Conference (pdf), Kabil mostly talked up the need to develop local industry and boost exports. The ministry will be primarily focused on construction, textiles, engineering, and chemical manufacturingover the next few years and is in the process of establishing industrial complexes for textiles, leather, furniture, and plastic that will specifically target exports. That is in addition to an industrial complex in Sadat City and two others in Badr and in Port Said.
Local investors are vital to narrowing Egypt’s trade deficit, since foreign directinvestment is still picking up, Kabil said. He explained how recent legislative reforms have helped local businesses: 80% of applicants now have their requests processed in under a month since the Industrial Permits Act came into effect in May. The Trade Ministry has also allocated 16 mn sqm of land for industrial purposes since the start of 2016, compared to 9 mn sqm between 2007-15. As for trade procedures, exports are now processed in six days instead of nine, while imports are processed in 21 days instead of nine, according to the minister.
The ministry’s next big priority is to develop legislation on SMEs, the minister said, noting that the state allocated EGP 7 bn to supporting small business last year.
Other speakers and panelists yesterday included:
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The Transport Ministry is hoping to complete four railway development projects worth USD 1 bn by 2022, Minister Hisham Arafat tells Al Mal in an interview. The projects include infrastructure and signaling system maintenance and upgrades.
Gov’t is still looking to the private sector to play a role in the overhaul of the nation’s rail system: On private sector partnerships, Arafat said the ministry is actively studying offers from foreign companies to build new rail lines and provide maintenance services. This comes as legislative amendments are being drafted to give the private sector full freedom to build, manage, and maintain rail infrastructure. As for the electric rail linking Salam City to the new capital, Arafat said the interest rate on the first tranche of the USD 739 mn loan from China was dropped to 1.8% from an initial 2%. The tranche will have a 15-year maturity and a five-year grace period. Negotiations are still ongoing for the second USD 460 mn tranche. The state will spend EGP 12.3 bn will be spent on purchasing 32 new locomotives and renovating 23 others, in addition to EGP 1.9 bn for signaling systems, Arafat said.
Investing in the Metro: Separately, the ministry is also still in negotiations with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development for USD 350 mn in funding to develop Metro Line 1, Arafat added. The government is spending EGP 998 mn on the supply and manufacturing of four trains for Metro Line 2. As for Metro Line 3, which the government wants to manage through a private sector company, negotiations are ongoing with a number of international finance institutions to obtain USD 500 mn in funding for the section linking Heliopolis to Cairo Airport.
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You reap what you sow — GASC pays the high price of a confused wheat import policy: The General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) purchased 175k tonnes of Russian wheat yesterday, but at a significantly higher price. The above-average prices are largely due to suppliers’ concerns over the Romanian and French wheat cargoes rejected by the Agricultural Quarantine Authority for containing poppy seeds, Agrimoney reports. Also contributing to the hiked prices, however, is a spike in demand on Russian wheat and the difficulties Ukraine is facing in meeting GASC’s new protein content requirements, according to Agrimoney.
GASC also received significantly fewer offers than usual, and the offered prices included a USD 4-11 premium per tonne, Reuters reports. “The way in which they are going about acquiring wheat is turning into a circus and will ultimately pull wheat off the table,” a source from the US’ Halo Commodity Company tells Agrimoney. Sources had said earlier this week that the sieving process for the two cargoes could take up to eight months, and would require the shipments to be moved to a separate port.
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