United Bank announces intention to float

Monday, 28 Oct 2024

United Bank announces intention to float

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Today at a glance

Economy

Egypt is mapping out three potential routes for its IMF program adjustment.

Privatization

United Bank to sell 30% stake on EGX this year.

What We're Tracking Today

Egypt proposes two-day ceasefire with small-scale hostage swap.

What We're Tracking Today

Three-month t-bills yield at highest level since float, recording 30%.

INVESTMENT WATCH

Deloitte launches Cairo innovation hub with three-year, USD 30 mn investment to boost service exports.

Manufacturing

Otsuka breaks ground on new USD 40 mn factory.

Startup watch

Local investor snaps up minority stake in Simplex.

ALSO ON OUR RADAR

Gov’t to offer private players 21 plots to set up hospitals.

PLANET FINANCE

Corporate market on thin ice: Record trade masks looming risks.

BLACKBOARD

Fresh insights on the new National Council for Education, Research, and Innovation.

What We're Tracking Today

Egypt proposes two-day ceasefire in Gaza

Good morning, friends. After a quiet weekend, the news flow has picked up with the latest on United Bank’s IPO, news on what a revised IMF loan agreement would look like, and fresh investment news.

WAR WATCH-

El Sisi confirms ceasefire proposal: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi said yesterday that Egypt has proposed an initial two-day ceasefire in Gaza to exchange Israeli detainees of Hamas for Palestinian prisoners. The temporary ceasefire would then see permanent ceasefire talks resume within 10 days, El Sisi added (watch, runtime: 21:55).

Not the first we hear of this: Last week, unnamed officials told Axios that Egyptian officials have put forth a proposal for a “small” agreement that would see some of the Israeli hostages being held by Hamas released in exchange for a short ceasefire in Gaza.

It’s unclear if Israel and Hamas are on board: Unnamed sources told Al Arabiya that both sides signaled they will commit to the new accord, though Israeli reports claim Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is still set on continuing Israel's invasion and strikes on northern Gaza during ceasefire negotiations, going against one of Hamas’ key conditions.

The situation on the ground remains dire: El Sisi’s announcement came as Israeli strikes killed 75 Palestinians across Gaza, with the UN describing the situation in northern Gaza as “unbearable.”

DEBT WATCH-

Yield on three-month t-bills reaches highest level since March float: The Finance Ministry sold some EGP 52.4 bn in EGP-denominated three-month t-bills this week at an average yield of 30.0%, according to central bank data. This marks the highest yield on three-month bills since March, when the rate jumped to 30.2% in an auction following the EGP float.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

Cabinet discusses EU’s CBAM, export competitiveness: The Madbouly government convened a meeting on Sunday to discuss the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) — set to go into full effect starting in 2026 — with Industry Minister Kamel El Wazir noting that the government is in the process of finalizing a plan to adjust to the new standards, according to a cabinet statement.

What the plan entails: The government will work on identifying sectors targeted for carbon footprint reduction with the aim of increasing the industrial sector’s overall energy efficiency, and is also putting together a list of prioritized exporters that will receive financial support to green their production lines, El Wazir said during the meeting.

DIVE DEEPER- We dove into the ins and outs of the CBAM and what it means for Egypt in a Going Green earlier this year.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- The Doing Business with Finland seminar is happening today, with Finnish and Egyptian companies set to meet later this morning at the Finnish Embassy-backed event to discuss potential healthcare, education, ICT, and food supply partnerships.

#2- It’s day two of Cairo Urban Week, which is highlighting the “city’s rich cultural diversity and unique heritage” until Sunday ahead of the World Urban Forum that will begin just after in the capital. You can find the full agenda and the link to register on the event’s official website.

#3- ITDA is inking agreements for three commercial and logistics zones in Beni Suef and Sharqia governorates with two firms including Emaar, Al Mal quotes Internal Trade Development Authority (ITDA) Head Heba El Sayed as saying.

#4- UNSC to convene for emergency meeting following request from Tehran: The UN Security Council will meet today to discuss Israel’s latest attack on Iran after the latter requested an emergency meeting with the support of Algeria, China, and Russia. “The Islamic Republic of Iran, in alignment with the principles enshrined in the Charter of the United Nations and under international law, reserves its inherent right to legal and legitimate response to these criminal attacks at the appropriate time,” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said in a letter to the council on Saturday.

HAPPENING TOMORROW-

AUC to hold talk on US elections’ regional impact: The American University in Cairo is holding a moderated panel discussion tomorrow entitled “America’s Next President: What it Means for the Middle East, Africa and the Future of the Region.” The hour-long talk will be held at AUC’s Tahrir Square campus and will kick off at 1 pm and will be open to the AUC community only. For more details on the event and individual panelists, visit the event’s website.

PSA-

WEATHER- It’s another cool day in Cairo, with a high of 28°C and a low of 18°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s more or less the same in Alexandria, with a high of 26°C and a low of 20°C.

** DID YOU KNOW that we now cover Saudi Arabia and the UAE?

** Were you forwarded this email? Tap or click here to get your own copy delivered every weekday before 7am Cairo time — without charge.

ICYMI- Missed this week’s Inside Industry? In our weekly vertical exploring all things industry and manufacturing, we looked at the challenges facing automakers in Egypt in the push to localize the industry. Check out the story here.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

#1- The Decision Makers Conference will take place on Wednesday, bringing together 500 attendees and over 30 speakers to discuss the country’s real estate sector. The conference will host sessions on urban development strategies, attracting foreign investment, and the current challenges and promises of Egypt's real estate industry with input from leading public and private sector players. You can register to attend through the event’s official website.

#2- The Iraq Investment Forum 2024 is penciled in for next week: A delegation from the Contractors Union will fly to Baghdad to partake in the Iraq Investment Forum — a two-day event held on 2-3 November, where the Iraqi government showcases the available project offerings across various sectors, including infrastructure, education, healthcare, and water waste. The union is expected to land agreements between local contracting companies and Iraqi entities to carry out construction projects there in the upcoming period, according to Amwal Al Ghad.

Local construction firms have been loving the Iraqi market, which has become one of a number of key markets local firms have been expanding to as domestic opportunities shrink. The Iraqi construction market is expected to grow significantly over the coming ten years, our sources said, adding that they expect demand to exceed the USD 500 bn market over the next decade. We dove into the full story in a HardHat published last month.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

ENTERPRISEAM IS LOOKING FOR SMART, TALENTED PEOPLE of all backgrounds to help us build some very cool new things. EnterpriseAM — the essential morning read on all the important news shaping business and the economy in Egypt, GCC, and the wider region — is looking for writers, reporters, and editors to help us build out new publications.

Never worked in a newsroom before? We have the EnterpriseAM Business Writing Development Program. Whether you are a recent graduate, an industry vet, or looking to switch careers, the EnterpriseAM Business Writing Development Program will give you the tools you need to tell the most important stories to our audience of C-suite officials, government ministers, diplomats, financiers, investors, and entrepreneurs.

Not an internship program — a career: The three-month program will see full-time, paid participants take part in workshops and lectures from veteran business journalists on subject matter knowledge, while also working on constructing and filing EnterpriseAM stories that will run on any of our publications. Those who have successfully completed the program, will then be given long-term job offers.

Apply directly to jobs@enterprisemea.com and mention “writing development program” in your subject line.

PLUS- We’re also looking for our first dedicated audience development professional. Someone who loves the challenge of helping us reach new readers in new markets — Saudi, the UAE, and lots more to come —using a range of digital channels and tools. You’re someone who thrives on working in a small, focused team. You’ve got proven digital skills (more likely than not on the performance marketing side). And you want to be part of what we immodestly think is the region’s most exciting media, advisory, and business intelligence company.

Interested? Tell Patrick and Moustafa why and send us your resume on newjobs@enterprise.news. We’d love to hear from you today. The position is based in Cairo, offers two days a week working anywhere you please, and offers a competitive package. (We’re also pretty nice people to work with, if we don’t say so ourselves.)

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Election news, escalations between Iran and Israel, and chatter around a potential ceasefire in Gaza continue to push business news further to the bottom of the foreign press’ front pages.

Japan’s ruling coalition lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since 2009 in snap elections yesterday, according to public broadcaster NHK’s projections, casting the country into political uncertainty. While the Liberal Democratic Party lost seats, Japan’s largest opposition party — the Constitutional Democratic Party — made big gains.

Market analysts are expecting the JPY and the Nikkei to suffer from an expected uncertainty in the legislative process of the country, Semafor said. The JPY has already weakened to its lowest level in almost three months following the news, Bloomberg reports. The Nikkei, however, has yet to show signs of faltering, rising 1% in early trade this morning, while the Topix is also up.

Israeli and Iranian officials are making their thoughts known on the impact of Israel’s strikes on Iran on Saturday, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claiming the attack “severely [harmed] its defense capabilities and its ability to produce missiles that would be launched at us,” after Israeli officials initially kept quiet on the details of the strike, Bloomberg reports. Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, on the other hand, said the strike must “neither be downplayed nor exaggerated,” BBC reported.

*** It’s Blackboard day: We have our weekly look at the business of education in Egypt, from pre-K through the highest reaches of higher ed.

In today’s issue: We dive into the new National Council for Education, Research, and Innovation.

Tags:

Middle East politics WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Somabay, every reason to fall in love.

Economy

Egypt is mapping out three potential routes for its IMF program adjustment

What would a revised IMF program look like? Last week, IMF boss Kristalina Georgieva said she will land in Egypt within days to “see for herself what is happening in the country.” This came during the same press briefing that she signaled openness to changing Egypt’s loan terms, adding that the Fund has “been very open to adjust the Egyptian program or any other program to what is best to serve people.” So what can we expect from a revised program?

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Three possible scenarios: Egypt is preparing three possible revisions to the loan agreement to present to Georgieva and her accompanying delegation when they land in Egypt mid-next week, government officials told EnterpriseAM.

#1- Extending the timeline for implementing reforms: The first scenario proposes extending the loan program by two years so Egypt ends up having five years to implement the reforms and unlock the entire USD 8 bn in funding. The move will give the country some breathing room to see moves to boost revenue and investment bear fruit.

#2- Growth stimulating measures: The second scenario would give the government a year to carry out a stimulus package that includes pausing energy price hikes and slashing interest rates in efforts to boost growth. The move would reduce cost burdens for citizens and businesses and ease the pace of reforms.

#3- Increased funding for social protection: The third and final scenario suggests securing additional IMF funding, while maintaining the program’s current structure and timeline. This increase would enable the government to strengthen social protections through a robust package aimed at raising the minimum wage, providing periodic pension bonuses, stabilizing prices, boosting contributions to the Takaful and Karama programs, and expanding healthcare services.

Option three seems unlikely? The Fund’s Middle East and Central Asia head Jihad Azour last week said that additional funds were unlikely, adding that “the macroeconomic conditions today are showing that the program as it's designed and its finance is still appropriate.”

Exceptional times: Regional tensions — and their impact on Suez Canal revenues — mean that Egypt needs more time to achieve agreed-upon program targets, our sources said, adding that Egypt needs to slow down the rate of lifting subsidies and start cutting rates to attract investments.

Remember: After President Abdel Fattah El Sisi made headlines for stating that Egypt might reevaluate its agreement with the IMF in light of economic pressures the nation is enduring as the country carries out reforms as part of the loan agreement, Prime Minister Madbouly confirmed that the government is currently reviewing the timeline and reforms put forward by the Fund. Madbouly highlighted the direct impact that the war on Gaza and the subsequent decline in Suez Canal revenues has had on state revenues as justification for the review.

Tags:

debt economy IMF

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Privatization

Egypt’s United Bank announces intention to float

United Bank is going public before year end: Central Bank of Egypt-owned United Bank will be going ahead with plans to float 330 mn of its shares — equivalent to a 30% stake — on the EGX, the company said in its intention to float (pdf). The bank plans to make its EGX debut before the end of the year — a quarter earlier than initially expected.

What’s next: The bank is in the process of obtaining the required approvals from the Financial Regulatory Authority and the EGX. The dates of the institutional and retail offerings are yet to be disclosed.

Remember: The EGX’s listing committee approved the temporary listing of United Bank last week, with the bank having listed 1.1 bn shares with a nominal value of EGP 5 per share as of last Thursday.

Advisors: CI Capital will act as sole global coordinator and bookrunner for the offering, while Helmy, Hamza & Partners — Baker McKenzie’s Cairo office — has been appointed as counsel.

Tags:

IPO watch privatization watch United Bank

INVESTMENT WATCH

Deloitte launches Cairo innovation hub with three-year, USD 30 mn investment to boost service exports

The Deloitte Innovation Hub has landed in Cairo: Global consulting firm Deloitte has kicked the tires on its new innovation hub in Cairo yesterday, pledging a three-year USD 30 mn investment to employ 5k of the country’s “top-tier talent” in several service export sectors, the London-headquartered company said in a statement (pdf). The hub — which started operations in September 2023 before the official opening — has already hired 350 people.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Service exports are the name of the game: The hub’s focus will be on recruiting young and skilled people working in AI, data analysis, marketing, commerce, cloud computing, cybersecurity, and resource planning. Services will be exported to Middle Eastern and European markets.

The state is firmly behind the project: The inauguration was attended by CIT Minister Amr Talaat, who praised the project and highlighted the government’s efforts to increase digital exports and build a knowledge based economy, according to the statement. Information Technology Industry Development Agency (ITIDA) boss Ahmed El Zaher, who was also in attendance, likewise gave his backing to the project that is set to increase the country’s competitiveness and presence in the global outsourcing market.

Remember: The government wants to see digital outsourcing services bring USD 9 bn into the economy annually as of 2026. Egypt’s digital exports brought in USD 6.2 bn in 2023, up 26.5% y-o-y from 2022. The figure includes outsourcing exports — think call centers and human resource centers — which accounted for over half of the digital exports in 2023, standing at USD 3.7 bn, up 54% y-o-y.

What they said: “The Innovation Hub will enable us to foster and develop local talent, making an impact that matters to Egyptian people and society, as well as deliver exceptional value to our clients across different markets in Europe and the Middle East,” said Deloitte Innovation Hub head Hani Girgis.

Tags:

Deloitte investment watch ITIDA outsourcing

Manufacturing

Otsuka breaks ground on new USD 40 mn factory in Egypt

Construction of Egypt’s Otsuka’s new factory is underway: Investment Minister Hassan El Khatib laid the foundation stone for Arab Otsuka Nutraceuticals subsidiary Egypt Otsuka ’s factory for nutritional products in Tenth of Ramadan yesterday, according to a ministry statement. The factory will initially focus on the manufacture of Otsuka’s Oronamin C drink.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

The timeline: The factory should be up and running by September 2025, with an eye toward kicking off exports to Gulf countries by January 2026, Mubasher quotes Arab Otsuka’s Managing Director Kiyoto Taira as saying.

The company aims to invest USD 40 mn in the first phase of the factory, Mubasher quotes Egypt Otsuka’s president Ahmed Zaghloul as saying, with production capacity set to reach 100 mn units annually. The new facility is the company’s fifth plant in Egypt, with the firm intending to increase its investments and expand production in the coming period, Zaghloul added.

Remember: Egypt Otsuka was granted a golden license to establish and operate the factory back in August. The firm is one of only three Japanese companies to receive the government’s golden license, El Khatib said, adding that the government hopes the project will attract more Japanese companies to Egypt.

ALSO- Supply minister follows up with Feerum Egypt over its planned silo factory: Supply Minister Sherif Farouk met with Janusz Musialski — CEO of the Egyptian arm of Polish grain silo manufacturer Feerum — to discuss next steps for moving forward with Feerum’s planned EGP 1.6 bn grain silo project, according to a Supply Ministry statement.

What’s next? A committee of representatives from the ministries of investments, supply, and finance will be set up next month to look into resuming the silo project, project partner engineering firm Samcrete’s Refky Kamel told Al Borsa. The committee should conduct the necessary work to grant the consortium carrying out the project the final green light and have it resume negotiations with local lenders.

Remember: Feerum last week refuted local media reports that it would be backing out of the project after the Supply Ministry reportedly canceled an order for a silo, hampering negotiations with local banks over financing.

Tags:

commodities healthcare Manufacturing pharma wheat

Startup watch

Egyptian investor snaps up minority stake in Simplex

Egyptian investor acquires minority stake in Simplex: An undisclosed Egyptian investor has acquired a non-controlling stake in local industrial machinery manufacturer Simplex in an EGP eight-figure transaction, company CEO Ahmed Shaaban told EnterpriseAM, without disclosing further details. Shaaban also noted that previous negotiations with Elsewedy Electric CEO Ahmed Elsewedy over a possible EGP 50 mn stake acquisition had not been completed due to disagreements over the size of the stake.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Where is the money going? The funds from the agreement will be used to complete the construction of the firm’s EGP 100 mn factory in Tenth of Ramadan City — set to be completed by May 2025 — and fund R&D efforts aimed at producing new models of the company’s computer numerical control (CNC) machines, Shaaban told us. The funds will also support Simplex’s plans to expand into three new countries, including Tunisia, Morocco, and Algeria. The firm already operated in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Libya, he said.

CNC machines? A CNC machine — short for computer numerical control machine — is a computer-controlled piece of machinery used in industry to cut and shape materials. CNC machines are good at dealing with complex and precise designs and repetitive tasks, making them an important tool in the manufacture of high-precision parts.

Advisor: Exits MENA served as buy side advisor on the transaction, the company announced on LinkedIn.

Tags:

Manufacturing Simplex Startup watch

Moves

Heba El Sayed appointed as the head of the Internal Trade Development Authority

Internal Trade Development Authority has a new boss at the helm: Supply Minister Sherif Farouk appointed Heba El Sayed (LinkedIn) as head of the Internal Trade Development Authority (ITDA), the authority said in a statement. El Sayed spent months as interim head after taking over following Ibrahim Ashmawy’s resignation — she was previously the assistant chairman for investment at the authority.

Tags:

moves Supply Ministry

LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

Egypt’s El Sisi received his Algerian counterpart

Algerian president’s visit to Cairo dominates the airwaves: Last night’s talk shows were focused on Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune’s visit to Cairo yesterday, where he met President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and the two held a joint presser (runtime: 21:55).

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

A new session of the joint Egypt-Algeria Committee is set to take place in Cairo soon, El Sisi said, adding that there are more than 5k Egyptian companies ready to cooperate with the Algerian side on infrastructure and energy projects.

Egypt can offer a wealth of city-building expertise: The upcoming period will see Egypt share its experience building new cities with Algeria, Ala Mas’ouleety’s Ahmed Moussa said (watch, runtime: 2:35). He added that Egyptian companies are already doing this in Libya and elsewhere in Africa.

Algeria represents an important ally for Egypt: The country was the first to be visited by El Sisi after he first took office back in 2014 — indicating Algeria’s strategic importance to Egypt’s political leadership, head of the Arab and Regional Studies Unit at Al Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies Mohamed Ezz El Arab told Salaat El Tahrir's Faten Abdel Maaboud (watch, runtime: 5:05).

The situation in Gaza and Lebanon was also a key talking point for the two presidents, who both emphasized the urgent need for a ceasefire in both areas, alongside the delivery of humanitarian aid. They affirmed the international community's responsibility to protect civilians from attacks, as well as the necessity of establishing an independent Palestinian state, according to an Ittihadeya statement. The presidents also discussed the state of the continent as a whole, mentioning the need for coordination to ensure the region’s best interests and to support developmental efforts.

Tags:

Abdel Fattah El Sisi Algeria DIPLOMACY LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS Middle East politics

ALSO ON OUR RADAR

Egypt to offer private players 21 plots to set up hospitals

HEALTHCARE-

New hospitals incoming: The government will offer private sector companies the chance to set up hospitals on 21 land plots as it works to add 173k beds to the country’s residential capacity by 2030, unnamed sources with knowledge of the matter told Al Mal.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Where things stand: The government is currently reviewing offers from local and Arab investors, with major projects expected to be announced soon, according to an unnamed Health Ministry source. The offered plots are located in Cairo, Giza, Sharqia, Qalyubia, Beheira, Damietta, Matrouh, Beni Suef, Minya, and Qena.

M&A-

Vantage Capital fully exits Pickalbatros: South African fund manager Vantage Capital has fully exited its investment in Egypt-based hospitality group Pickalbatros Hotels after having provided the company some USD 18.4 mn in mezzanine financing in December 2020, according to a press release.

The firm is reaping the fruits of tourism’s post-pandemic bounceback: Vantage Capital partner David Kornik noted that through the investment — made in the depths of the Covid pandemic — the firm was “willing to support a strong underlying business at a time when banks were too risk averse.”

LOGISTICS-

Egypt, Italy to launch new ro-ro shipping line next month: A new ro-ro shipping line connecting Damietta Port with Italy’s Port of Trieste will begin operations by the end of November, Al Mal reports, citing Italy’s ambassador to Egypt Michele Quaroni. The route aims to facilitate the transport of perishable agricultural commodities to European markets and marks Italy’s first direct maritime link with Africa, Quaroni said.

Remember: The Transport Ministry in January said that the new line would launch by the end of 1H 2024.

BANKING-

Standard Chartered has acquired its license to operate as a custodian bank after having obtained the necessary approvals from the Financial Regulatory Authority, according to an authority statement.

Remember: The British multinational bank’s Egyptian arm began banking operations after getting the final go-ahead from the central bank in January. We sat down with the lender’s Egypt CEO Mohammed Gad to discuss what the bank is hoping to achieve in its first year here. Check out the full interview here.

ADVERTISING-

Local advertisers can advertise on Reddit: Aleph Holding has expanded its advertising partnership with social media platform Reddit to Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, according to a joint statement (pdf). The partnership will see Aleph help Reddit connect with local advertisers and feature relevant brands as part of the firm’s larger mission to help large platforms expand in new markets.

DEBT-

A consortium of 11 banks will provide EGP 50 bn in financing to the Social Housing and Mortgage Finance Fund, with contracts set to be finalized in early November, unnamed sources told Al Shorouk. The funding will support the construction of additional units for Egypt's social housing program, green housing program, and the Housing for All Egyptians initiative.

Who’s involved? The consortium includes the National Bank of Egypt, Banque Misr, the Housing and Development Bank, Banque du Caire, CIB, Arab African International Bank, QNB Al Ahli, the Industrial Development Bank, Bank NXT, United Bank, and Midbank. The consortium has received approval from the central bank and the loan will be guaranteed by the Finance Ministry.

LEGISLATION WATCH-

Changing up how earnings are reported: Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly has issued a decision adding a new accounting standard that aims to provide clear financial information that accurately reflects the financial position of businesses in a hyperinflationary economy, according to a decision published in the Official Gazette. This standard applies to financial statements, including consolidated, independent, and separate reports, and applies to any entity with operations abroad.

ALSO WORTH NOTING-

#1- GB Auto to distribute UD Trucks: GB Corp’s automotive arm GB Auto is now the official distributor of Japanese UD Trucks ’ vehicles in the local market.

#2- Four table egg producers will be fined EGP 5 mn each after the Cairo Economic Court ruled that they had been colluding to set daily egg prices in violation of the Competition Act.

#3- EgyFert saw a large-volume trade of 3.11 mn shares worth EGP 186.6 mn on the EGX yesterday.

Tags:

ALSO ON OUR RADAR automotive banking debt EgyFert GB Auto GB Corp healthcare infrastructure Italy logistics M&A Watch

PLANET FINANCE

Corporate market on thin ice: Record trade masks looming risks

The US corporate bond market wrapped up its busiest month on record in September with an average daily volume exceeding USD 43 bn, but cracks could be forming under the surface, the IMF warned last week in its Global Financial Sustainability Report. Although trading activity surged, narrow credit spreads are raising concerns about a sudden repricing of bonds if markets face turbulence, Bloomberg reports.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background and outside sources.)

A downturn could hit when it’s least expected: While current liquidity appears strong, the IMF cautioned that smooth trading conditions often vanish in times of stress. A sudden market shock — such as volatility surrounding the upcoming US presidential election — could trigger a rapid deterioration. “It just looks like a disaster in the making,” said Global Head of Investment Grade Debt at Goldman Sachs Group Jonny Fine.

The rise of e-trading is helping: Platforms like MarketAxess and Tradeweb have supported liquidity, with 50% of high-grade bonds now traded online. Portfolio trading, where large blocks of bonds are exchanged in a single transaction, has also become a key driver, making up 25% of dealer-client trades last month, up from near-zero in 2018.

Risks remain, despite record numbers: While the US Federal Reserve’s policy outlook supports the market, analysts warn that complacency could backfire. “My concern is the kind of self-fulfilling prophecy of everybody thinking liquidity is good and getting better,” the business information service quotes head of fixed income sales and trading at US Bank Blair Shwedo as saying. “Does that lead us to a point where, because everybody’s under the assumption that liquidity is really good, the music stops and we see a drastic deterioration?”

Bottom line: In anticipation of volatility striking at any time, analysts are already preparing for a tougher environment, with some pointing to weaker economic data, potential policy shifts, and corporate refinancing challenges as risks to watch.

Upcoming data points to watch:

USD 20 bn of high-grade US bond sales are expected next week.
US GDP for 3Q 2024 will likely come in at 3.1%, according to Bloomberg Economics.
October payrolls report on 1 November could show the first negative figure since 2020.
Eurozone inflation is projected to hold steady at 1.7% in October.

EGX30	30,812	+0.9% (YTD: +23.8%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 48.67	Sell 48.81
USD (CIB)	Buy 48.69	Sell 48.79
Interest rates (CBE)	27.25% deposit	28.25% lending
Tadawul	12,069	+1.5% (YTD: +0.9%)
ADX	9,204	+0.1% (YTD: -3.9%)
DFM	4,479	+0.3% (YTD: +10.3%)
S&P 500	5,808	0.0% (YTD: +21.8%)
FTSE 100	8,249	-0.3% (YTD: +6.7%)
Euro Stoxx 50	4,943	+0.2% (YTD: +9.3%)
Brent crude	USD 76.05	+2.3%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.56	+1.5%
Gold	USD 2,755	+0.2%
BTC	USD 67,762	+0.8% (YTD: +60.3%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 0.9% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 3.4 bn (18.0% above the 90-day average). Regional investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 23.8% YTD.

In the green: ADIB (+3.6%), Beltone Holding (+2.7%), and CIB (+2.5%).

In the red: Juhayna (-4.1%), AMOC (-1.5%), and Emaar Misr (-0.7%).

Tags:

Financial Markets Planet Finance

Our weekly deep dive into education in Egypt, from K-12 to post-secondary.

Published every Monday in EnterpriseAM.

Read Blackboard

BLACKBOARD

Fresh insights on the new National Council for Education, Research, and Innovation

A closer look at the new education council: The House of Representatives has recently given final approval to a draft law establishing the National Council for Education, Research, and Innovation, which will coordinate directly with ministries and relevant bodies to ensure education policies align with the demands of Egypt’s labor market, both domestically and internationally. The council will submit biannual reports to the President, outlining its activities, progress, and any adjustments needed to support educational advancements.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

What will the council do? The council will set policies for all education levels, create national strategies for research and innovation, and align educational outcomes with local and global labor market demands. The council will coordinate with ministries to update sector priorities, develop school infrastructure plans, expand vocational training aligned with economic needs, and implement a strategy to promote Egypt’s educational and research outputs locally and internationally.

Who’s on the council? The prime minister will head the council, with ministers from relevant sectors, leaders of related institutions, and a select group of experts and business figures appointed by the president based on nominations by the prime minister. Each member will serve a renewable two-year term.

The council adopts an independent model for education policy making — a common approach globally that is new to Egypt — that will balance the needs of students, teachers, and public and private institutions, House Education Committee member Doaa Oriaby told EnterpriseAM. Oriaby added that this structure is designed to elevate educational quality through inclusive, comprehensive policies.

The new council will unify Egypt’s fragmented education systems, crafting cohesive policies that drive development and keep pace with global standards, professor and chatshow education pundit Tamer Shawky told EnterpriseAM.

Tapping the private sector for vocational training is also part of the plan: The council aims to strengthen technical education by linking it directly to labor market needs, taking cues from the Mubarak Kol model, where schools partner with factories and workshops.

But some are also calling for the updating of the Education Act: Setting up the council is a much-needed move, but serious partnerships with education investors and the state are essential to improving Egypt’s education standards, Private School Owners Association Deputy Chairman Badawy Allam told EnterpriseAM. Allam called for a new legislative framework to replace the 1981 Education Act, to attract investment and encourage private sector involvement to reduce the reliance of the sector on the government, enhance quality, and support the country’s educational goals.

Tax breaks and rule changes should play an important part: Allam shared that he discussed with the education minister ways to attract investors to the education sector, focusing on tax exemptions. He also called for a review of private-sector partnership requirements for establishing specialized schools, which currently mandate a capital of EGP 100 mn — a setup that limits investment interest.

Longer leases and easier financing are also part of the puzzle: He also highlighted the need for easier financing from banks in light of rising costs and proposed extending the land lease agreement period for school facilities from 30 to 50 years to mitigate rising construction expenses.

Shifting more responsibility to the private sector would ease the government’s burden of EGP 15k per student annually, while providing affordable, high-quality options, Allam notes. An incentive system could drive competition and help unify fragmented initiatives within education reform.

Your top education stories for the week:

The Supreme Council of National Universities granted preliminary approval to establish the New Valley National University, advancing the proposal to its procedural steps.(Statement)
Orange expands its Digital Schools project: Orange Egypt now covers 100 schools under its Digital Schools initiative, which aims to enhance tech-driven education in underserved areas, train teachers in digital skills, and equip centers with tablets, laptops, and internet access to support a modern learning environment. (Statement, pdf)

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CALENDAR

2024

OCTOBER

28 October (Monday): The Doing Business with Finland Forum, Cairo, Egypt.

30 October (Wednesday): The CEO Women Conference, Cairo, Egypt.

30 October (Wednesday): Decision Makers Conference, Cairo, Egypt.

NOVEMBER

2-3 November (Saturday-Sunday): The Iraq Investment Forum.

4-8 November (Monday-Friday): World Urban Forum, Cairo, Egypt.

7-9 November (Thursday-Saturday): FinExpo Conference and Exhibition, Cairo.

8-9 November (Friday-Saturday): Carerha Summit 2024, Cairo, Egypt.

10-12 November (Sunday-Tuesday): Falak Startups’ Fund Manager Masterclass, Cairo, Egypt.

12-15 November (Tuesday-Friday): Arab African Investment and International Cooperation Summit, Aswan, Egypt.

17-19 November (Sunday-Tuesday): Autotech Exhibition for Automotive Aftermarket & Feeder Industries, Cairo, Egypt.

21 November (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

25-27 November (Monday-Wednesday): Annual Digital Nation Conference, Cairo, Egypt.

26-28 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Egypt Energy Show, Cairo, Egypt.

28-30 November (Thursday-Wednesday): Cairo International Wood and Wood Machinery Show, Cairo, Egypt

30 November (Saturday): Deadline to apply for renewable energy projects under the peer-to-peer (P2P) system.

DECEMBER

16-17 December (Monday-Tuesday): Mining World Conference 2024, London, UK.

26 December (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2H 2024: Gov’t to launch the Cairo Ring Road BRT buses.

3Q 2024: Egyptian-Armenian Joint Committee.

First week of November: Egypt-Turkey high-level trade consultation mechanism.

November 2024: Egypt to host the World Urban Forum (WUF12).

End of 2024: The launch of the high-speed train line linking Ain Sokhna with Al Alamein City.

2025

7-10 April 2025 (Monday-Thursday) : EFG Hermes One on One conference, Dubai, UAE.

May 2025: Egyptian Exporters Association (Expolink) exhibition, Italy.

July 2025: The first operational trail of Egypt-KSA electricity interconnection line.

March 2025: Operation of phase one of the Amotope wind farm

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2Q 2025: Safaga Terminal 2 to start operations.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

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