Even more success with eurobond issuance round 2: Egypt raised USD 3 bn in a triple tranche eurobond sale on Wednesday, about twice as much as targeted and at lower cost than when the same bonds were first sold in January, Reuters reports. The government sold USD 750 mn worth of five-year bonds at yields of 5.45%, down from 6.125% in January’s eurobond sale. USD 1 bn of 10-year bonds were sold at yields of 6.65%, down from 7.50% in the last sale, while 30-year bonds raked in USD 1.25 bn at yields of 7.95%, down from 8.50%. 80% of the money raised from the bond sale came from North America and Europe, and that the proceeds would reach the central bank by May 31, said Finance Minister Amr El Garhy.
“This is a great success and shows confidence in the economy," a Cairo-based banker told Reuters. “This shows that there is very good sentiment on Egypt and expectations that yields could fall further in the future.”
Heavily oversubscribed: Order books closed at USD 11 bn or 4x oversubscribed, a document issued by one of the banks leading the deal showed. BNP Paribas, Citi, JP Morgan, and NATIXIS were joint bookrunners. The issuance is listed in Luxembourg and London and governed by English law. We hope to have more color in Sunday’s edition.
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Russians still playing hardball on resuming flights despite resurgence in Egypt tourism from other sources: Talks between Russia and Egypt are essentially going nowhere. That’s our take based on remarks by Russia’s Deputy Transportation Minister Valery Okulov carried in Sputnik Arabic, which suggest the Russians haven’t grown bored with their tourists-for-nuke-plant extortion tactics. Okulov refused to comment on when he expects flights to resume, adding that media reports on a change in the Russian position was conjecture. Russia has not changed its stance on the issue since February, he said.
At issue: The USD 30 bn Dabaa nuclear power plant, for which the final contracts are now said to be due for signing “before the month is out.” (We don’t see the nuke issue spilling over and hitting the sale of Russian shipborne Ka-52K Katran combat helicopters for Egypt's Mistral-class helicopter carriers. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov confirmed to Sputnik on Tuesday that the talks were taking place.)
…Maybe we should be saying “Dasvidaniya” to the Ruskies and “Willkommen” to the Germans? Egypt is expecting up to 1 mn German tourists in FY2017, Mohamed Abdel Gabbar, tourism director of the Egyptian embassy in Berlin, tells German tourism portal FVW. This would be around a 50% year-on-year increase from last year’s figure of just over 650K, he added. We had noted that number of German tourists visiting increased 35% y-o-y in 1Q17. The optimism appears reflected in the opinions of tour operators in Germany that took part in a workshop held by the outlet. Some, including travel agency Ihr Reiseladen’s Kerstin Hesse, praised security of key German hotspots and downplayed any danger from recent terror attacks (security concerns are the coat hanger on which the Russians are hanging their withholding of flights).
Prevailing wisdom among German operators is that the resurgence in German comes down to how cheap prices are. “The value for money is brilliant,” declared TUI’s Patrick Geyer. “Our partners have really invested in the product.”
The optimism about a resurgence of tourism isn’t limited to Germany. A number of other international operators tell Travel Weekly about spikes in bookings to Egypt. Intrepid has increased its Egypt departures by 140%, to 48, for 2017, compared with the 20 it offered in 2016, while Tourico Holidays, a Florida-based global travel distribution company, has also seen a 300% jump in reservations to Egypt compared with last year. US-based Viking Cruises is even relaunching its Nile cruise line.
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Fake news in Poland about Zuk’s death threatens an important outbound market: The Polish media’s coverage of the death of Magdalena Zuk — the 27 year old Polish tourist who died in Hurghada — is unnecessarily causing a diplomatic rift between Egypt and Poland and contributing to the slump in tourism, writes Edmund Bower for the Independent. In an interesting investigative piece, Bower dives deep into the many wild (and often racist) conspiracy theories promulgated in the Polish press on the circumstances surrounding Zuk’s death. Motivations are said to include a desire by some TV charlatans to boost ratings, and a desire by neo-Nazi groups to play this as a nationalist cause. The spread of fake news is having a real and tangible effect on people in Egypt who rely on tourism, he argues. Bower states that the backlash now includes pressure on the Polish government to take unwanted, drastic diplomatic actions against Cairo.
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Egypt blocks 21 websites for hosting pro-terror content and allegedly publishing fake news: The Ismail government has blocked access in Egypt to 21 news websites for publishing fake news and hosting content that security officials described as being “pro-terrorism,” Youm7 reported on Wednesday, citing top security official who spoke on condition of anonymity. The list reportedly includes local news website Mada Masr as well as Huffington Post’s Arabic service (the US site remains accessible), Qatari news network Al Jazeera, Cairo Portal, Egypt Window, Horria Post, and Ikhwan Online and the Ikhwan-affiliated Rassd, as well as Hasm and Hamas’ websites. Al Mal has most listed here and Al Arabiya also picked up the story. Mada Masr put out a statement late last night via Facebook confirming that even though its website had indeed been blocked, “we will continue to publish through existing platforms, as well as our website.” Reuters has the story in English.
The move comes on the heels of Saudi Arabia and the UAE blocking access to several Qatari news websites, including Al Jazeera, as a result of publishing the “fake news,” Bloomberg reports. Qatar, however, claimed that its state news agency had been “hacked” after it reported remarks purportedly by Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani criticizing aspects of US foreign policy in the wake of US President Donald Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia. The comments were critical of the renewed tensions with Iran, calling it an "Islamic power" and saying Qatar's relations with Israel were "good" during a military ceremony. Qatar News Agency (QNA) insists its “website has been hacked by an unknown entity. A false statement attributed to His Highness has been published … The statement published has no basis whatsoever, and the competent authorities in the State of Qatar will hold all those (involved) accountable.” The hackers also purportedly “took over the news agency's Twitter feed and posted alleged quotes from Qatar's foreign minister alleging a plot against the country by other Arab nations,” the Associated Press reports.
The QNA comments also said Qatar has recalled its ambassadors from Bahrain, Egypt, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates over the “plot.”
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Security forces arrested yesterday one of the attackers behind a drive-by shooting that killed two police captains and one enlisted member of the police service earlier this month. Investigators have also identified three other alleged perpetrators, the Interior Ministry announced yesterday. According to the statement, the men are members of the Hasm militant group (an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood) and are implicated in a number of other terrorist attacks. The ministry’s announcement came hours after Hasm released what appears to be video footage of the attack. (We have viewed the video and believe it has hallmarks that suggest it could be genuine. That said, we are not linking to it this morning, and the website to which it has been posted appears to have since been blocked by the authorities.)
The group had threatened earlier in the day to launch an attack in a “hail of bullets” at 7pm last night without providing further details, leading the US Embassy and some workplaces in Cairo to issue security warnings.
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Is the government privatizing management of the Cairo Metro? The Transport Ministry is set to launch a tender for a private sector company to operate Cairo Metro Line 3, Transport Minister Hisham Arafat tells Al Borsa. A non-state-owned company will also be tasked with operating Cairo Metro Line 4. Tunneling operations of Metro Line 3’s phase 4A are currently being completed and will be delivered before the end of 2018.
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Listed companies will now have to issue their first call for a general assembly at least 21 days in advance rather than 15, as was the case before new amendments to the Companies Act issued yesterdayby Investment and International Cooperation Minister Sahar Nasr. Don’t have quorum after your first call? You’ll need to give seven days’ notice of a second meeting. The changes are expected to improve Egypt’s ratings on global indices, such as the World Bank’s Doing Business Report and World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report, the ministry said.
(Or, conversely, it could make it easier for crank shareholders with five shares apiece to show up and ask for handouts / demand more food / steal your silverware.)
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EARNINGS WATCH- Elsewedy Electric doubled its consolidated net profit in 1Q2017 to EGP 1.54 bn in 1Q2017, according to a regulatory filing (pdf). Consolidated revenues increased by 108% y-o-y to EGP 9.78 bn in 1Q2017, Reuters reports.
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El Sisi denies Al Bashir’s accusations of intervention in Sudan at Wednesday presser: Egypt’s foreign policy is “based on non-intervention in foreign countries’ affairs” and has never conspired against Sudan or any other country, President Abdel Fattah El Sisi told the press on Wednesday, according to a statement from Ittihadiya (pdf). The statements came during a joint press conference with Austrian Chancellor Christian Kern, who met with El Sisi and Prime Minister Sherif Ismail yesterday for cooperation talks.
Reuters quotes the president as saying, “The other point I must stress is that Egypt does not conspire. Would I conspire and let elements attack our brothers in Sudan? We practice honorable politics at a time when honor is rare.”
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Former investment minister Mahmoud Mohieldin speaks with Al Mal: Egypt needs to focus more on creating employment opportunities away from urban centers and in rural areas, former Investment Minister Mahmoud Mohieldin told Al Mal in an interview. Creating job opportunities for the unemployed will have a more substantial impact on families than across-the-board increases in wages for state employees. Mohieldin, now senior vice president at the World Bank, says the state should provide the land for these projects and treat them like freezones. He says investors who are looking to expand right now will not be deterred by prevailing interest rates and those who want to start new businesses are keeping an eye on the projected path of prices and interest rates in the future. Now, the government has a duty to provide cash or commodity subsidies to the least well-off, he says, praising the Takaful and Karama programs. Mohieldin also praised the expansion in road networks nationally. The state could also embark on a universal health insurance scheme and, like the case of Thailand, could have it implemented relatively quickly. He would also like to see a more decentralised tax collection system that gives governorates the authority to collect some of the taxes rather than the central government.
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Raising interest rates was “absolutely the right decision, and it was long overdue,” Patrick Werr writes in The National. He says inflation before the price shock that followed the EGP flotation was already high, placing the blame on the “rapid expansion of the money supply over the past few years.” He says governments, since 2011, relied, in effect, on printing money to finance deficits. Werr adds that concerns about the access to credit following the rate hike are not entirely valid as “the sad truth is that Egyptian banks haven’t been lending all that much to private businesses.”
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