Coffee is coming: May we begin by respectfully noting that no matter whether you believe Ramadan will last 29 days or 30 this year, we will all be drinking coffee during daylight hours a week from now?
It remains unclear whether Egypt will participate in June a gathering sponsored by the White House to (re-)launch The Donald’s plan to bring peace to the Israelis and Palestinians. Egypt has yet to announce whether it is sending a delegation to the conference, which Trump hopes will end with Gulf countries backing infrastructure and other economic development programs targeting Palestine (and, potentially, Egypt and other neighboring countries). Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar have all said they will attend, but an Associated Press story out overnight quotes an unnamed Sisi administration official as saying that (so far) only Egyptian business leaders will be there as “individuals.” Reuters counters that Egypt, Jordan and Oman are all expected to send delegates to the conference.
Attention EM bargain hunters: Look to tech and communications stocks, Bloomberg suggests. Both sectors are currently registering sub-20 on the relative-strength index, indicating that they have been heavily oversold. Shares in the real estate, healthcare and non-essential consumer goods sectors have also been oversold in a month that has seen EM equities fall more than 8%.
More bad news for EM: Diesel demand is falling in China, signaling that the economic slowdown could be worse than some believe. It’s unlikely that EM would be able to escape the fallout if a slowdown in China prompted emerging markets investors to pull back, Bloomberg Opinion suggests. China accounts for 40% of the GDP of developing economies.
Sign of the times: Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba is reportedly looking to raise around USD 20 bn in a second listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The company, whose 2014 Wall Street debut smashed IPO records by raising USD 25 bn, is currently in talks with financial advisors about the offering. Not coincidentally, Alibaba’s depositary receipts on the NYSE have plunged 20% in the past year. (FT | Bloomberg)
The payments industry gold rush: Investors plowed USD 18.5 bn into the payment sector in 2018 — an almost 500% increase from 2017, CNBC reports. Fintech startups behind e-payment platforms are generating intense interest from venture capital outfits and corporations alike as businesses and consumers increasingly turn to digital transactions over cash. Online payment processing startup Stripe raised USD 345 mn in an investment round in January. And Klarna recently received USD 100 mn during an internal round, aided by Snoop Dogg who fronted their ad campaign.
While we’re on the subject of fintech: Egyptian fintech startup accelerator Startupbootcamp-Pride Fintech Cairo held its Demo Day on 22 May. Ten startups pitched their business plans to investors and the wider business community, the group said in a press release (pdf).
What We’re Tracking Today, the Ramadan edition:
A pre-iftar reading list to kill time between your post-workout shower and the breaking of the fast:
We may need to plan a trip to North America for June just to eat the Stranger Things-inspired concoctions coming to Baskin Robbins (see this press release picked up by Yahoo Finance).
Apple rolled out a new iPod yesterday. In 2019. Go figure.
RAMADAN PSA- Bank hours are at 9am-2pm for employees; doors are open from 9:30am until 1:30pm for customers. The trading day at the EGX runs 10:00am until 1:30pm.
So, when do we eat? Maghrib is at 6:50pm CLT today in Cairo. You’ll have until 3:12am tomorrow morning to caffeinate / finish your sohour.
WEATHER- The mercury will spike to 40°C today and our favorite weather app says it will stay there through Friday. Look for a slightly cooler 37°C for the duration of Eid El Fitr next week.
IPO WATCH- E-finance is going to IPO, and NI Capital is asking investment banks to pitch for the mandate: NI Capital, the state-owned investment bank that is shepherding the Sisi administration’s IPO program, has invited several local investment banks to bid to quarterback the upcoming stake sale of fintech company e-finance as part of the second wave of the state privatization program, unidentified sources close to the matter tell Al Mal.
Rehabilitation: Beltone Financial, which settled earlier this year with the Financial Regulatory Authority after being suspended in the wake of an IPO last fall, is one of the banks that got the call, the newspaper claims. Beltone is planning to bid as part of a consortium, Al Mal added.
Background: Public Enterprises Minister Hisham Tawfik confirmed in April that e-finance would be part of the second wave of the program, which is set to begin as early as September. Tawfik told us in March that the second wave of privatizations is expected to only involve new listings, and companies in the industrial, mining, and E&P sectors will be prioritized. One company will IPO each month, he said.
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WTO to probe Egypt’s steel import duties: The World Trade Organization (WTO) will meet with Egyptian officials to discuss the recently imposed duties on steel imports during its November committee meetings, according to a press release (pdf). The Trade Ministry last month introduced 180-day import duties of 25% on finished steel rebar and 3-15% on iron pellets in a bid to protect local manufacturers. The WTO meetings come after Japan, Australia and South Korea complained that the country’s anti-dumping measures violate WTO rules. The global trade body will also hold talks with the European Union, Morocco, Canada and the Eurasian Economic Union, which have adopted similar protectionist measures.
Where will Egypt go from here? The temporary measure may be made permanent as soon as the ministry completes a study on whether these products are being dumped in Egypt. Sources told the local press that the Industrial Development Authority received a letter from the WTO about the measures, but provided no further details.
What do WTO rules say? Under WTO rules, a country is allowed to take emergency measures such as introducing temporary tariffs, subsidies and import quotas if its local industry is under serious threat by increasing imports. Key here is that the industry has to face “serious injury” before the government can take action — and a detailed investigation must take place in order to quantify the damage. Countries are also not permitted to target imports from specific countries.
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Bombardier says its consortium has been tapped as preferred bidder for monorail project: A consortium of Orascom Construction, Arab Contractors, and Bombardier Transportation has been tapped as the preferred bidder to build a monorail linking Six October to the new administrative capital, Bombardier confirmed in a statement. The project would entail the construction of a 54-km-long monorail system connecting 6 October with the new administrative capital, in addition to a 42 km line that would connect 6 October to Giza. “The potential value of the bid for Bombardier Transportation is GBP 1.2 bn (USD 1.3 bn) for the Design & Build Contract. In addition, there is a 15+15 years Operations and Maintenance [agreement] with a potential value of about GBP 1.1 bn (USD 1.2 bn).” As we previously noted, the selection is not final and is subject to final confirmation.
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ECA calls foul on Delivery Hero-Glovo “arrangement,” orders Glovo to come back to Egypt: The Egyptian Competition Authority (ECA) said an “arrangement” between Delivery Hero and Glovo to “divide up” markets” led Glovo to exit Egypt in violation of the competition law, the ECA said in a statement (pdf). The competition regulator has ordered Glovo to return to the country and to scrap its agreement with Delivery Hero within 30 days. “The concentration of market power with Delivery Hero could lead to practices that constrain competition and have a negative impact on all players in this market whether users, drivers or restaurants,” the ECA said.
Glovo has yet to be officially notified of the ECA’s decision, an unnamed company official tells Masrawy. According to the official, the company is currently in talks with the ECA over the potential consequences if it fails to comply with the order, including paying a fine.
Background: Spanish delivery startup Glovo, partially owned by Germany’s Delivery Hero, sent messages last month to its employees in Egypt informing them of the decision to indefinitely suspend its operations in Egypt following a EUR 150 mn series D funding. Glovo has also exited Chile, citing “some hefty financial losses” in 2018. The ECA’s intervention comes after it threatened both Uber and Careem with EGP 500 mn fines following their USD 3.1 bn mergerin March.
Meanwhile, the ECA called in Huawei for a chat about the handset and network equipment maker’s recent woes, which have seen Google pull Huawei’s license to use the Android operating system. Ahram Online has the story.
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LEGISLATION WATCH- Aspiring crypto businesses are going to need licenses: Companies looking to establish digital currency and cryptocurrency platforms will be required to obtain licenses under the proposed Banking Act, an unnamed central bank official told state news agency MENA without providing further details. The bill would also give the CBE regulatory power over the use of cryptocurrency in Egypt. We noted earlier this month that the CBE has effectively blacklisted crypto in its recently issued e-commerce guidelines for banks. The current draft has been with the Madbouly Cabinet for review since January and is due to be introduced to the House of Representatives soon.
This isn’t necessarily a bad move. We can’t afford the CBE to block the exploration of crypto in Egypt — but the last thing Egypt needs is a modern-day El Rayyan scandal centered on crypto. If it can happen in Canada, where cryptocurrency exchanges are still essentially unregulated. The trick will be to balance a light hand with legitimate businesses with devastatingly draconian penalties for would-be fraudsters and startups that fail to build in adequate safety protocols.
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The EGP is still “tightly managed” and will continue to appreciate, Dubai-based Lighthouse Research said in a note (pdf). The firm said the appreciation of the EGP against key currencies since the start of the year “defied the broader sell-off in global emerging market assets.” It pointed out that the KRW, ZAR and TRY have depreciated by 6%, 4% and 15% respectively. The Egyptian pound was selling at 16.8794 to the USD on Tuesday, having broken through the psychologically important EGP 17 barrier.
It’s not about foreign reserves, Lighthouse argues, pointing out that most inflows took place from November 2016 until February 2018 before a stagnation that has seen the figure only go up by USD 1.7 bn since. The current account deficit has seen some improvement though, thanks to higher exports and a recovery in the tourism industry, the firm notes.
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Egypt could combine stamp duty and capital gains taxes on stock market investments to reduce the financial burden on investors, EGX boss Mohamed Farid told Reuters. Proposed amendments could have the government refund a portion of the stamp duty if its value exceeded capital gains that are paid towards the end of the year, Farid said. “The amendments (to tax laws) could include … a combination of the stamp duty and capital gains taxes, with the capital gains tax acting as a ceiling for the stamp duty tax,” Farid told the newswire.
What’s going on? The Finance Ministry and EGX are working on potential scenarios for the implementation of a capital gains tax on stock market transactions when the levy comes back into effect next year, Farid told us earlier this week.
CLARIFICATION- The amendments could also mean the tax would be calculated differently for resident and non-resident investors, Farid had told us. We incorrectly said in yesterday’s issue that the proposal was to create a different calculation for local and foreign investors.
Background: After a revolt by retail investors, officials shelved in 2017 for a three-year period a tax on capital gains made on the EGX — and replaced the measure with a provisional stamp tax. The full introduction of the tax was a recommendation of the IMF, and reports in the local press citing unnamed government sources had suggested earlier this month that the government would not be bringing back the tax “anytime soon” despite deciding to keep the stamp tax on EGX trades unchanged at 0.150%.
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Trade minister holds talks with UK trade secretary on post-Brexit ties: British trade secretary Liam Fox sat down with Trade Minister Amr Nassar for talks about the UK’s post-Brexit trade relationship with Egypt, according to a ministry statement (pdf).
Post-Brexit talks started last year: Brexit would see the UK abandon a trade pact that saw Egypt and the European Union ease trade barriers on agricultural and manufactured products. The two sides began early talks last year over a new agreement, at which time the UK was said to be looking to negotiate terms similar to those in the EU pact, while Egypt was pushing for ways to increase exports. UK Trade Commissioner for Africa Emma Wade-Smith confirmed the talks to Enterprise in an exclusive sit-down in December. Wade-Smith emphasized Britain’s willingness to push for continuity on the trade front and more investment.
May’s resignation could slow down early talks: UK Prime Minister Theresa May is stepping down at the end of the month, which will likely slow the talks as her success sorts out his or her Brexit agenda.
Correction: 29/05/2019
A previous version of this article incorrectly stated that Fox met with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi.
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Tax breaks for exporters to launch tomorrow on trial basis: The Tax Authority will meet tomorrow with leaders of Egypt’s export councils to implement on a trial basis the tax settlement mechanism which will be introduced under the new export subsidy program, Al Shorouk reports. We noted yesterday that exporters will be getting tax breaks as part of a new framework to recompense overdue export subsidy payments. The program will effectively pay out what is claimed to be up to EGP 12 bn in incentives owed to Egyptian exporters by the Export Subsidy Fund since last year.
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EARNINGS WATCH- Elsewedy Electric reported a 32% y-o-y drop in net profit to EGP 957.2 mn in 1Q2019, down from EGP 1.4 bn in 1Q2018, the company said in its earnings release (pdf). Revenues for the quarter grew 12% y-o-y to EGP 11.2 bn from EGP 9.9 bn in 2018. Revenue growth was driven primarily by turnkey projects, which rose by 33% y-o-y during the quarter. “The first quarter of 2019 saw Elsewedy Electric return to steady top-line growth after three consecutive quarters of contracting revenue during 2018, a year of normalization,” CEO Ahmed Elsewedy said, adding that the company is “aggressively moving” to develop its turnkey segment in Africa, Asia and the GCC.
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EFG advises on Saudi healthcare merger: EFG Hermes has completed advisory on a JV agreement between London Stock Exchange-listed UAE healthcare provider NMC Healthcare and Hassana Investment Company, the investment wing of the Saudi General Organization for Social Insurance, the bank said in a statement (pdf). NMC Health will own a majority 53% stake in the new company, which will be one of the largest healthcare providers in Saudi Arabia.
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MOVES- Markets sage and Allianz chief economic advisor Mohamed El Erian (LinkedIn) has been appointed president at Cambridge University’s Queens’ College, Bloomberg reports. El Erian will succeed Lord John Leonard Eatwell in October 2020. The son of an Egyptian diplomat and a four-time feature of Foreign Policy’s Top 100 Global Thinkers, El Erian is the author of When Markets Collide and The Only Game in Town. He earned his undergraduate degree at Cambridge and his masters and PhD in economics at Oxford. Reuters also has the story.
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MOVES- President Abdel Fattah El Sisi has appointed (pdf)Fakhry El Fekki (bio, pdf) to the board of directors of the Central Bank of Egypt, replacing Planning Minister Hala El Said. Fekki has served with the IMF, United Nations and World Bank in a career that has so far spanned 35 years.
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MOVES- World Bank Group senior vice president Mahmoud Mohieldin has been appointed as a member of the AmCham’s advisory council, Al Shorouk reports.
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Human rights is back in the foreign press: A 134-page report from Human Rights Watch accuses security forces of misconduct in North Sinai. The report claims to document arbitrary arrests, torture and collective punishment. It also accuses terrorist groups of having “committed horrific crimes … including kidnapping scores of residents and security force members and extrajudicially executing some.” The story is receiving widespread coverage: Reuters | BBC | Euronews | Fox News.
Egypt has dismissed the report as “groundless,” with Armed Forces spokesman Tamer El Refaie telling state news agency MENA that the organization “is seeking to tarnish the image of Egypt and its army.”
The continued detention of Al Jazeera reporter Mahmoud Hussein is also drawing attention, with the International Press Institute (IPI) expressing “dismay” that he has not yet been released after an Egyptian court ruled last week that he should be set free after being held without charge.
Egypt’s commitment to completing the Grand Egyptian Museum on time is front-page news in the country’s three main state-run newspapers this morning (Al Ahram | Al Akhbar | Al Gomhuria). President Abdel Fattah El Sisi met with members of the Madbouly Cabinet to discuss the latest updates on the museum and ongoing work to develop the surrounding areas and roads. The museum is set to open in 2020.
Shocker: Egypt’s public service is playing catch-up on artificial intelligence: Egypt ranks 111 out of 194 countries in the latest Government Artificial Intelligence Readiness 2019 report (pdf) published by Oxford Insights. The report ranks countries based on their ability to harness AI to deliver better public services, looking at existing infrastructure, skills, and governance.
The essentials? Quality and availability of data, a strong pool of in-country talent — built through AI education and the general strength of the sector — and a government that displays “both strong political will and capacity to push for innovation.”
And yet our ranking is surprisingly low: It’s hard to fathom how Kenya (52), Tunisia (54), Mauritius (60), South Africa (68), Morocco (80), Rwanda (99) and Nigeria (107) all outrank us, with the report noting that “Cape Town, Addis Ababa, Kigali, and Nairobi [are] all positioning themselves as regional centres for innovation,” without any mention of Cairo. Corporate deployment of AI in Egypt is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 25.5% between now and 2030 and ICT minister Amr Talaat says he will implement a national AI strategy in the next 3-5 years. The report recommends developing clear policies about data usage and availability, opening more tech hubs to spur AI research and development, and working closely with SMEs, open source developers, and educational bodies to help them incorporate AI.
Elon Musk makes his mark on the night sky: Amateur astronomer Marco Langbroek has captured on video the 60 Starlink internet satellites launched by SpaceX earlier this week (watch, runtime: 00:39). The “train” of satellites can currently be seen (with the right equipment, and a little patience) moving around the Earth 2-3 times each night but they will eventually spread out, with each satellite moving into its own destination orbit. SpaceX intends to launch almost 12k units into orbit in the next few years in a bid to provide affordable internet access around the world.
Apex signs two MoUs with Ghana: Apex Trade Development and Finance signed yesterday two MoUs with Ghana for health, transport, construction, and industrial projects, according to an emailed statement (pdf). The MoUs include an agreement with International Maritime United Technology and Ghana’s Defense Ministry to supply medical equipment and vehicles, and to construct two complexes housing the Ghanaian army’s headquarters and the Defense Industries Holding Company’s offices. The second MoU will see the Egyptian National Organization for Military Production establishing separate facilities to manufacture solar panels, disposable syringes, and prepaid smart meters in Ghana. No further details on the expected timeline or cost were provided.
The Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company (EETC) has signed with Siemens Egypt and Siemens Transformer a supply and supervision contract worth EGP 227.6 mn for the installation of four 750 Mega Volt Amp transmitters for power stations in Zagazig and Kafr El Sheikh, EETC head Sabah Mashaly said, according to the local press.
Housing Minister Assem El Gazzar signed an agreement with Swiss Ambassador to Egypt Paul Garnier to establish a potable water management program in Upper Egypt, according to a press release from the Swiss embassy picked up by Egypt Independent. The project is designed to provide sustainable access to drinking water to some 2 mn people, and will be implemented across several phases between 2019 and 2027.
The National Food Safety Authority (NFSA) has given companies running food sorting and packaging facilities six months starting from June to comply with 99 new regulations, said Ashraf Mohamed, quality control executive at PICO. Many of the new rules, including one making it mandatory to treat water prior to usage, are unnecessary, Mohamed said, claiming that the process is costly and ineffectual.
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The Supply Ministry is planning to set up soon a holding company to operate the country’s first exchange market for industrial and agricultural commodities, Minister Ali El Moselhy said at a presser yesterday. The ministry has completed the necessary studies and is waiting on presidential approval to set up the company. The exchange will be established this year and will initially allow five commodities — flour, iron, oil, corn, and cement — to be traded.
Vodafone Egypt will begin using Nokia’s cloud-based Subscriber Data Management (SDM) solution to increase the scope of its network and cater for increased data traffic, according to a Nokia press statement. Vodafone Egypt engineers will use Nokia Registers to manage subscriber data and authentication from a centralized location and across both fixed and mobile technologies. It is unclear when the new system will be fully functional.
Elsewedy Electric’s board of directors approved yesterday receiving a EUR 42 mn loan from the National Bank of Greece, according to an EGX disclosure (pdf). No details were provided on what the loan will be used for.
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MM Group for Industry and International Trade (MTI) has increased its issued capital to EGP 383.6 mn from EGP 306.9 mn by issuing EGP 76.7 mn-worth of bonus shares, the company said in a bourse disclosure (pdf). The issuance will be financed from its 2018 retained earnings.
English Premier League footballer Sarah Essam, the first Egyptian woman to join the league, has won the Golden Boot for Stoke City’s Development Team, KingFut reports. 20-year-old Essam, who joined Stoke City Ladies in 2017, was awarded “Arab Woman of The Year: Achievement in Sport” by the London Arab Foundation last year.
The Libyan National Army officially handed over Egyptian special forces officer-turned-terrorist Hisham El Ashmawy to Egypt yesterday, according to the State Information Service. El Ashmawy was captured in Libya last year and is believed to be responsible for orchestrating several high-profile attacks in Egypt. The terrorist’s extradition to Egypt came as Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel visited Libyan military leader Khalifa Haftar, according to Ahram Gate.
Egyptian, Yemeni journalists receive Michael Kelly Award, one month after winning Pulitzer: Egyptian investigative Journalist Maggie Michael, Canadian-Egyptian photojournalist Nariman El-Mofty and Yemeni video journalist Maad Al-Zikry have been awarded the Michael Kelly Award, a prize of USD 25k, for their work covering Yemen’s civil war for the Associated Press. The three were awarded a Pulitzer in international reporting in April, having spent a year uncovering abuses in Yemen.
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The MENA region spends close to 58 mn more hours on Facebook and watch more YouTube videos during Ramadan than at any other time of the year, making the holy month a prime time for advertisers, the AP reports. People in the MENA region sleep later during Ramadan and for the most part finish work earlier than usual, and as a result spend more time on Facebook and other social media platforms or watching TV.
Turnover: EGP 925 mn (17% above the 90-day average)
EGX 30 year-to-date: +7.6%
THE MARKET ON TUESDAY: The EGX30 ended Tuesday’s session up 0.5%. CIB, the index heaviest constituent ended up 0.3%. EGX30’s top performing constituents were GB Auto up 7.8%, and Kima up 5.3%, and AMOC up 5%. Yesterday’s worst performing stocks were Eastern Co down 3.6%, Juhayna down 3.1% and Sarwa Capital Holding down 0.7%. The market turnover was EGP 925 mn, and regional investors were the sole net sellers.
Foreigners: Net Long | EGP +3.0 mn
Regional: Net Short | EGP -5.9 mn
Domestic: Net Long | EGP +2.9 mn
Retail: 40.4% of total trades | 38.4% of buyers | 42.3% of sellers
Institutions: 59.6% of total trades | 61.6% of buyers | 57.7% of sellers
WTI: USD 58.93 (-0.36%)
Brent: USD 70.11 (0.00%)
Natural Gas (Nymex, futures prices) USD 2.58 MMBtu, (0.00%, June 2019 contract)
May: 50 Egyptian companies are set to visit Libya to discuss trade, investment and reconstruction.
1H2019 (date TBD): Investment Minister Sahar Nasr will head a delegation of businessmen into Mexico City to explore cooperation avenues with the Latin American country.
June: International Forum for small and medium enterprises (SMEs).