Egypt is stepping up its drive to land energy investment in the Gulf of Suez, Oil Minister Tarek El Molla said yesterday. The minister announced an agreement with an international company to conduct a seismic survey of the Gulf of Suez to attract exploration investment in the area, but “did not name the company or give any details on the agreement,” Reuters notes. He added that Egypt is developing a new online database in cooperation with oil and gas majors to log geological and seismic data on Egypt in a bid to promote Egypt’s fields to foreign investments, Youm7 reports.
(That last bit is a play on the trend in the wider industry of making more data available to oil and gas majors, as the Financial Times notes in its Big Read: Drillers turn to big data in the hunt for more, cheaper oil.)
New and improved 95 octane formulation hits the market: Speaking at the launch of the EGYPS Petroleum Show 2018, El Molla said that the ministry has introduced a higher-quality formulation of 95 octane fuel to the market that is more compatible with newer car engines. The minister confirmed that the fuel will be sold at the same price of EGP 6.60 per liter through Exxon Mobil and Total gas stations as a first stage. He added that work is underway to improve the quality of fuel products in cooperation with global oil products marketers.
How many shipments does Egypt have to import before it ends LNG tenders? “Very few,” El Molla said without specifying how many LNG shipments the country has to go before tenders grind to a halt, according to Reuters. Observes expect that will be by the end of the year at the latest. The minister added that Egypt’s current gas production stands at 5.5 bcf/d.
We’re already a regional energy hub? Also speaking at the conference was OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Barkindo, who said that Egypt has become a regional energy hub, according to Al Shorouk.
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INVESTMENT WATCH- BP pledges to invest USD 1 bn this year as production from Atoll gas field begins seven months ahead of schedule: BP plans to invest USD 1 bn in Egypt this year, BP Group CEO Bob Dudley said on the sidelines of the conference, Reuters reports. The statement comes as BP announced that it has started production at the Atoll Phase One project in the North Damietta concession in the East Nile Delta seven months ahead of schedule and 33% below the initial cost estimate. Atoll is now producing 350 mcf/d and 10,000 bpd of condensate, with the main reservoir in the field containing an estimated 1.5 tcf of gas and 31 mn bbp of condensates. Phase 1 of Atoll, which has seen nearly USD 1 bn in investments, is the first new project to come into production for BP in 2018. “The longstanding partnerships we have in Egypt allowed us to fast-track Atoll’s development and deliver first gas only 33 months after discovery. This is a further demonstration of our commitment to help realize Egypt’s oil and gas potential and meet the increasing demand from its growing population,” Dudley said.
“The government owes us no money,” he added. Egypt, whose arrears to international oil companies had reached USD 2.4 bn as of the end of FY2016-17, has pledged to eliminate arrears owed to foreign oil companies by the end of June 2019 and not to accumulate more.
SOUND SMART: The Oil Ministry doesn’t owe anything to BP and has paid down arrears to other majors, insiders tell us, but it’s squeezing the cash flows of mid-sized producers. They’re the next pressure point in the chain.
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INVESTMENT WATCH- BP wasn’t the only one pledging new investments, as Dubai-based Emirates National Oil Company (Enoc) said yesterday it is eyeing new investment in Egypt through its wholly-owned subsidiary Dragon Oil, according to the National. “Investing in Egypt’s market, the third largest in Africa, complements our business strategy to go beyond the UAE and our commitment to industry-leading performance,” said Enoc group CEO Saif Al Falasi. Dragon Oil, which fully owns the East Zeit Bay offshore concession south of the Gulf of Suez. Enoc currently sells lubricants, greases, petrochemicals and aviation fuel to the Egyptian market and has plans expand its product offering here.
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Production from the Zohr offshore gas field will reach 2.9 bcf/d by mid-2019, said Eni CEO Claudio Descalzi at the conference. The goal was to reach output of 1.8-2 bcf/d by the end of 2018 and then ramp up to 2.9 bcf/d by mid-2019, he added, according to Reuters.
Descalzi also spoke on the potential giant discovery in Cyprus’ Calypso 1 reservoir, saying that an appraisal well would have to be drilled to understand the real volumes there and that Eni would decide alongside France’s Total when to commit to that campaign. Asked whether it is believed to hold around 6-8 tcf, Descalzi said: “It could be more or in that range... for sure it cannot be less, but we have to understand it ... It’s a good find that has merit to go ahead with additional investment.” He did not mention Turkey’s latest acts of aggression to hinder the development of Block 6.
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IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde singled out Egypt in her praise of the “courage” Arab countries have shown in implementing economic reforms, according to CNBC. “If we look at Egypt, which has gone through a really tough time, and where the Egyptian people have shown courage, and the Egyptian leader, courage — we have seen growth up more than 5 percent,” said Lagarde at the World Government Summit in Dubai. “When you see inflation going down, when you see [capital] coming back into the country, investors looking at Egypt as a good risk in which to set up new companies and create jobs, that's the response,” she said.
“Big stabilization in Egypt is going to give rise to benefits for the people. And in all circumstances, whether it's in Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia and all places we think of as difficult situations, we are very attentive that there be a social basis so that people who are at risk, people who are underprivileged, people who are exposed, have sufficient benefits to actually cope with the situation,” she added.
Lagarde warned, however, that changes in the world economy and energy prices mean that many countries across the Arab world need to undergo significant changes in order to survive.
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Washington stands by Egypt and is “committed” to supporting it in its war on terrorism, US State Secretary Rex Tillerson said yesterday after meeting with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, according to an Ittihadiya statement (pdf). “The President noted that Egypt looks forward to forging closer economic cooperation with the US and to increasing American investments in Egypt,” read the statement.
Tillerson pledged that the US would continue to provide military and economic support to Egypt. Speaking at a press conference in Cairo on the first leg of his Middle East tour, Tillerson said that the US had provided Egypt with bns in military assistance. He did not, however, mention the near USD 300 mn in military assistance the US froze last year, citing human rights concerns.
…Foreign aid cuts expected, except for ‘friends’: His statements come as foreign aid workers expect US assistance to decrease sharply in the Trump administration’s 2019 budget proposal, especially after the Donald threatened to cut aid from countries that do not support US policies, according to the Washington Post. Analysts, including the Heritage Foundation’s Brett Schaefer, say that the move would not apply to strong US allies, among them Egypt, Jordan and Afghanistan.
Tillerson also stressed the need for free and fair elections in all countries, but did not comment directly on Egypt’s March presidential vote. Foreign Sameh Shoukry said during the conference that Egypt was committed to fair elections and upholding human rights.
As for the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Tillerson said Washington remained committed to working for the peace process, adding that Trump’s recent decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem did not set final boundaries for the city. He added that the final boundaries need to be decided by both sides. El Sisi had urged in his meeting with Tillerson the US to push forward the Israeli-Palestinian negotiating process “in line with international resolutions.”
Tillerson also commented on North Korea, saying that “it’s too early to tell” if recent signs of overture between North and South Korea at the Olympics mean that a genuine political process is beginning.
Shoukry added that Egypt and the US would hold 2 plus 2 talks on strategic cooperation sometime in the second half of the year.
You can catch the full press conference here (watch, runtime: 25:39).
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Daesh calls for attacks during presidential elections as Operation Sinai 2018 intensifies: The Daeshbags have reportedly put out a video urging their fighters to stage terror attacks during next month's presidential elections and warning Egyptians to stay away from polling centers, according to the Associated Press. The video, which calls the elections an act of apostasy, makes a brief mention of the Armed Force offensive in Sinai, suggesting it was made after the campaign began Friday. As for the offensive itself, the Armed Forces announced on Monday that 12 militants were killed and about 100 other suspected militants have been arrested and weapons caches destroyed. This would bring the announced deaths in the largest military operation in Egypt in years to 28 militants.
The Armed Forces also announced yesterday that it has launched a hotline service to allow citizens across the country to report suspected terrorists.
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Iraq will follow Egypt’s model on economic reforms as it begins a USD 88 bn reconstruction process after three years of war with Daesh, Iraqi Central Bank Governor Ali Mohsen Al Allaq told Al Shorouk on the sidelines of an international donors’ conference in Kuwait yesterday. It is unclear whether this implies a possible devaluation of the IQD. An Egyptian government delegation led by presidential advisor for national projects Ibrahim Mahlab recently visited Baghdad to discuss Egypt’s role in reconstruction efforts there.
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CORRECTION- Our friends at EFG Hermes are not planning to expand to Latin America, as reported by Al Mal. EFG Hermes clarified instead that they’re going to launch research coverage of some Latin American markets, including Peru and Argentina. The incorrect entry has been removed from our web edition.
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