“New energy” models are at the heart of our auto market’s revival

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What We're Tracking Today

Mohamed Mansour + Mansour Group say goodbye to London

Good morning, friends. We have for you a relatively busy Sunday — even as it seems that the holiday exodus is kicking off this week.

The auto market has a new lease on life — although it's not the market we know as distributors are banking on 2026 being the year of range-extended electric vehicles for Egypt. Industry insiders we spoke to don’t think it’s a paradigm shift just yet, but there are big changes afoot in market dynamics.

MEANWHILE- As policymakers look to address mounting pressure on state finances, the Madbouly Cabinet gave the Finance Ministry the all-clear to begin talks to swap outstanding debt for investment. The ministry is separately doubling the threshold for transfer pricing compliance to EGP 30 mn in a move that is expected to reduce red tape for SMEs.

Watch this space

INDUSTRY: Egypt and Tanzania are looking at setting up reciprocal logistics zones in each of the two countries, according to a statement from the Industry Ministry. The potential project would bring a Tanzanian logistics zone in Egypt and vice versa, and would be modeled after a similar agreement with Rwanda, the statement says.

Sign of the times

It’s official: The London era for Egyptian family offices is ending. Mansour Group and Man Capital Chairman Mohamed Mansour is returning to Egypt, ending his residency in the UK after having called London home since at least 2016, Bloomberg reports. Where Man Capital relocates to, though, is still an open question.

Mansour’s departure comes despite his position in the country’s political and business establishment, having served as the Conservative Party’s senior treasurer and even receiving a knighthood.

Outside of the Gulf, London has for decades been the undisputed second home for Egyptian capital — that era died this week. The departure of the world’s third-richest Egyptian follows the departure of its first, Nassef Sawiris, who moved his NNS family office to Abu Dhabi in 2023, along with many other wealthy residents.

What’s at play: Tax rises and reforms on wealthy individuals from abroad, more fiscally conservative pundits allege.

Data point

A two-year high of 124 — that’s the number of oil and gas rigs in operation in October, according to Oil Ministry data compiled by Middle East Economic Survey. An uptick in drilling activity seems to show that the state’s push to pay down arrears and improve terms for energy players may be having the desired effect.

But, an uptick in drilling activity is yet to hit the pipeline, with both oil and gas output down in October from September, albeit marginally.

Happening Tomorrow

The Pharaohs are set to play against Zimbabwe in their opening match of the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations tomorrow in Morocco’s Stade Adrar in Agadir, marking the start of Egypt’s Group B campaign.

There’s more on the line now: This year’s champions will go home with a USD 10 mn prize, after the Confederation of African Football (CAF) upping the figure from last year’s USD 7 mn, according to a statement from the confederation.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Oil markets are once again in watch-and-see mode after the US seized yet another oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem confirmed overnight. The Panamanian-flagged vessel is the second tanker near Venezuela that the US has gone after this month, with US President Donald Trump ordering a “total and complete blockade” of all sanctioned oil tankers going into and out of Venezuela. Read the complete take on Reuters.

PLUS- Did the price tags on tickets for the 2026 World Cup make your eyes water? FIFA and other sporting bodies are under pressure to capitalize on major sporting events — ostensibly to be able to reinvest in the sports they oversee — while facing pressure from fans to make the experiences more accessible. Go read the Financial Times’ Big Read on The “Outrageous” Cost of Sports Tickets.

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WEATHER- Cairo is in for a slightly windy day today, with the Egyptian Meteorological Authority forecasting intermittent winds across the capital, as well as low clouds expected to result in light drizzles. Expect a high today of 22°C and a low of 11°C.

Christmas is just the beginning. At Somabay, the celebrations unfold day by day, night by night, building all the way into the New Year. From rooftop takeovers and beach parties to late-night performances and full-band shows, the season is curated to let you choose your moment and celebrate it your way — right through the final countdown and beyond.

New Year’s and beyond at Somabay.

Celebrate when it feels right: Pick your night. Book your plans.

Discover the full December & NYE calendar here. Welcome the New Year at Somabay.

Egypt's EV future is here — it just has a backup engine

Industry insiders are betting that 2026 will be the year of range-extended electric vehicles (REEVs) in Egypt. One of them, Abu Ghaly Motors Vice President Tamer Kotb, goes so far as to say that REEVs could account for as much as 50-60% of new car sales in Egypt in the coming year.

“The real growth story won’t be pure electric cars, but new-energy vehicles (NEVs), including plug-in hybrids and range-extended EVs,” Kotb notes. “I see strong inflows. Manufacturers and agents are heavily focused on NEVs as the price of petrol increases [thanks to government subsidy cuts] and thanks to the lower operating and maintenance costs of EVs,” he adds.

Everyone and their brother is bringing “new energy” models to the market: In just the past week, Karim Sami Saad’s Natco introduced two extended-range models from Exeed (Chery’s luxury brand), while GB Auto launched three extended-range models from premium Chinese brand Li Auto. GB had new-energy models in each of the three brands it rolled out in the last year, according to GB Auto board member Mansour Kabbani: Li Auto, South Korean luxury brand Genesis, and Changan’s Deepal.

And they just keep coming: Just yesterday, El Tarek Automotive — one of the nation’s largest multi-brand distributors — reintroduced the Chinese brand DFSK, featuring a lineup of vehicles with REEV technology.

A number of global brands are looking at Egypt as a potential manufacturing hub for REEVs, says Ahmed Fikry Abdel Wahab, vice president of the African Association of Automobile Manufacturers (AAAM). Why? Range-extended EVs are particularly well-suited to Egypt and much of Africa, he explains, noting, “charging infrastructure will take decades to roll out” across the continent. (Abdel Wahab is also managing director of Natco’s Egyptian German Automotive Company.)

Uh, Enterprise? What’s a REEV?

Demystifying industry-speak: A REEV is essentially an electric car with a small internal combustion engine that works only as a generator, switching on to produce electricity when the battery runs low. The wheels are always driven by an electric motor. On a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), both the engine and the electric motor can directly drive the wheels via parallel drivetrains.

In practice, REEVs deliver a smooth, EV-like driving experience while reducing mechanical complexity and range anxiety: Even the tank-like Rox01 claims a range of more than 1.1k km.

When it comes to batteries, REEVs sit in the middle: Much larger than PHEV packs, but smaller than those in pure EVs, which rely on large batteries to cover the full range without an internal-combustion backup.

!_Subhed_! A paradigm shift? Not yet.

EV sales grew significantly in 2025, but they still represent no more than 5% of total new-car sales, according to Kotb. Egyptian buyers have licensed about 18.5k passenger EVs since 2021 — 1,267 of them in the past month alone, according to data from the Compulsory Motor Ins. Pool.

Kabbani, who drives a full EV, doesn’t see EVs taking over the local market in the near-to-medium term. He points to two drawbacks: A still-embryonic national network of charging stations — and a little thing called “range anxiety.”

Range anxiety “is a very big overhang,” he says. “Forget going to Gouna. You’ll stop in Zafarana — either the station is working or it's not. And if it is working, maybe a car is already plugged in, so what are you going to do?”

The potential game changer?

BYD is coming: Perhaps the most anticipated event in the local automotive market is the introduction in early 2026 of global EV leader BYD’s electric and hybrid vehicles through Mansour Group’s Maneast. Even without an official distributor in place, parallel-market imports of BYD EVs currently account for roughly one-third of monthly EV sales.

Adaptation

Hybrid vehicles are going to re-shape the market for buyers and sellers alike, whether we’re talking PHEVs, EVs, or REEVs.

“The elephant in the room is that the resale value of electric cars is very poor worldwide. This is a phenomenon,” says our friend Maged El Tawil, a car dealer better known for Cars by Maged, the nation’s number-one automotive YouTube channel with more than 620k subscribers. “You’re talking about something in their infancy compared to internal combustion, which has been around for more than 120 years. Today you can change your internal combustion engine for 10% of your car’s price, but if you want to change your EV battery, you’ll pay 40 or 50% of the car’s price,” Maged explains.

For distributors, the economics of selling pure EVs is also a significant change from selling ICE vehicles: “It’s almost like being a mobile phone distributor. Mobile phones do not require maintenance,” Maged says. That’s a paradigm shift for dealers selling cars with internal-combustion engines. Aftersales parts and service revenues (think oil changes and transmission work) contribute maybe 15% of a distributor’s revenues — but can account for up to 60% of its gross profit.

EVs can require as much as 40% less maintenance than a petrol-fueled car, leaving distributors trying to make up their margins on tires, software upgrades, and post-collision bodywork (a good revenue stream in Egypt). Kabbani notes that EVs aren’t maintenance-free, though, pointing to the need to replace brake pads, tires, and other components.

Our take

Hybrid vehicles including REEVs and PHEVs offer the best of both worlds — the range of a conventional vehicle combined with cutting-edge Chinese tech and a taste of what our full-EV future might look like. And with perhaps a decade before Egypt is notably far down the road to full-EV future, they offer better-than-EV aftersales margins to local brand owners used to the fat margins on ICE models.

Think of them as a “walk-before-you-run” bridge technology: mostly electric, range-flexible, and better suited to our market, where charging infrastructure will be built-out over a decade or more.

What remains unclear: How should REEVs be treated in the licensing process, given the variation in the capacity and function of their gasoline engines? For now, REEVs and PHEVs are being temporarily licensed as EVs, pending the introduction of a formal hybrid classification within the car licensing system next year, while mild-hybrid vehicles continue to be treated as conventional IC vehicles.

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Cabinet greenlights debt swap talks as interest bill consumes 80% of revenues

EXCLUSIVE- The Finance Ministry has the green light to open broad negotiations with foreign creditors to swap outstanding debt for investment, after receiving approval from cabinet, a government source tells EnterpriseAM. The move comes as policymakers race to finalize a comprehensive public debt strategy within days to address mounting pressure on state finances.

What pressures, you say? Interest payments are now consuming approximately 80% of state revenues this fiscal year, a second government source tells us. Total public debt stood at EGP 14.9 tn at the end of the last fiscal year in June, marking an over 15% y-o-y increase, with external debt standing at EGP 3.8 tn of the total, according to a government document seen by EnterpriseAM.

But there is a silver lining, with the debt-to-GDP ratio declining due to inflation and growth.

What’s next?

The cabinet’s mandate now allows the planning and finance ministries to engage directly with creditors — including through the Paris Club — to convert debts into long-term investment stakes in development projects. This fits into the broader public debt strategy, which aims to widen the debt market by diversifying the creditor base. The plan seeks to reduce reliance on traditional heavyweights by introducing new instruments, including a retail market for fractional bonds, sukuk, green bonds, and issuances specifically targeted at Egyptians abroad.

The IMF’s recent visit to the country may have something to do with the timing

This flurry of activity appears calibrated to address concerns raised behind closed doors by the IMF. While the government remains optimistic about passing the upcoming fifth and sixth program reviews, the fund has expressed dissatisfaction with Egypt’s current debt indicators, the second government source tells EnterpriseAM. The lender’s primary warning is that the current lack of fiscal flexibility threatens the state's ability to absorb future economic shocks or fund social development, necessitating the urgent shift toward debt swaps and new liquidity pools.

Madbouly sets the tone

The new debt playbook: Less borrowing, more swaps. The Madbouly government is trying to pivot the debt narrative from crisis management to asset monetization. In a rare opinion piece from Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly out Thursday, the PM signaled that debt-for-investment swaps — where creditors trade debt for equity in state projects — will be the primary engine for driving the external debt-to-GDP ratio down to 40% by 2026.

Keep an eye out for an announcement of new measures to address our debt burden, which Madbouly said to expect within days.

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Amea Power, Kyuden International reach financial close on USD 700 mn Abydos II solar project after securing USD 570 mn debt package

Dubai-based Amea Power and Japan’s Kyuden International wrapped financing on a USD 700 mn solar and battery storage project in Aswan, Amea said in a statement. The facility, known as Abydos II, will be the largest single-site renewable energy facility in Africa when it comes online.

The International Finance Corporation led a USD 570 mn debt package, with co-financing from a who’s-who of development finance institutions, including Italy’s CDP, Dutch development bank FMO, Germany’s DEG, British International Investment (which wrote a USD 37 mn ticket, it said in a separate statement), the OPEC Fund, and Europe Arab Bank.

By the numbers: The 1 GW solar plant, paired with 600 MWh of battery storage, should come online by June 2026. Amea Power holds 60% of the project, while Kyuden has 40%. It’s Kyuden’s first investment in Egypt. Construction work is already underway; Amea and Kyuden have a 25-year offtake agreement with the Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company.

This one is special: The Amea-Kyuden plant is being paired with what will become Africa’s largest battery energy storage system (or “BESS,” in industry-speak). The battery system will allow the massive solar park to supply renewable energy to the national grid during peak evening hours when load-shedding risks are highest.

Amea is big here: The developer is quickly becoming one of the largest private power players in the nation. When the Aswan facility comes into service, the company’s Egypt portfolio will top 2.5 GW of wind and solar, plus 2.4 GWh of storage. It commissioned a 500 MW solar plant a year ago this month and has a 500 MW wind farm in the construction phase.

The utility-scale battery storage is clutch

Why this matters: Utility-scale battery storage is among the more important hedges against the return of rolling blackouts that plagued us in 2023 (and, to a lesser extent, 2024). The other big things for officials to address are the capacity and quality of the transmission grid itself. Integrated battery storage systems, like the 600 MWh of storage Amea has here, provide baseload-style renewable power. The more we have of that, the less reliant we’ll be on unpredictable Israeli gas imports and declining domestic production from the Zohr field.

Egypt aims to hit 42% renewables in its energy mix by 2030 as it seeks to position itself as the premier renewable energy hub in the eastern Mediterranean.

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Fractional real estate is heating up in Egypt as MNT-Halan and Azimut launch the country’s first non-listed digital REIT

A REIT you can buy into from your phone, no brokerage account necessary. MNT-Halan and Azimut Egypt submitted a prospectus for what they’re billing as the first digitally-distributed real estate fund in Egypt — we’re thinking of it as the nation’s first private (as distinct from EGX-listed) digital REIT.

What is it? The Halan AZ Real Estate Fund will allow individual investors to buy digital investment certificates in what the fund is billing as “premium real estate assets.” The fund plans to market the certificates to both novice and experienced investors through three of the nation’s top fintech platforms: Halan, Thndr, and Azinvest, it said in a statement (pdf).

How does it work? Actively managed by Azimut, Halan AZ will let retail investors buy digital certificates in a multi-tranche fund, earn rental income, and trade their stakes via the app. If it works, they’ll become the latest in a new (and very underserved) fractional real estate market.

Who else is playing in fractional real estate? As we’ve noted in our recent two-part guide to the industry (here and here), players include our friends at Bonyan and Madinet Masr. Here’s how they break down:

Halan AZ — a digital-first REIT: An actively managed fund that will offer digital certificates. Buy online from Halan, Azinvest, or Thndr without a brokerage account. Each tranche of the fund includes a mix of commercial, residential, hospitality, and office properties from multiple developers.
Bonyan — an institutional heavyweight: An EGX-listed company that functions as a pure-play landlord. Buy BONY.CA through your brokerage account — it’s an EGX share. Invests in grade-A commercial real estate (office and retail) in East and West Cairo, including high-end offices and malls with USD-linked rents.
SAFE — a fractional proptech: A direct ownership model where you take a specific share of a single apartment or office. Distributed through MNHD’s SAFE app on Google and Apple’s app store. Buy pieces of individual properties in specific projects.

Why fractional real estate matters: Real estate has always been Egypt’s favorite place to park savings (and hedge against devaluation and inflation), but the affordability crunch has forced many people out of the market. Fractional players want to institutionalize the market — and grow it by allowing would-be investors to write smaller tickets.

Worth watching: Our friend Hassan Allam is on Halan AZ’s board; his involvement suggests this isn’t just a fintech experiment.

What’s next: We’ll be watching for regulatory approval of the prospectus and the initial asset list in the first tranche. We expect 2026 to be a down year for unit sales in real estate at large as the industry shakes out a bit, but with interest rates coming down, more investors will be eyeing prospects to lock in high yields instead of rolling over their CDs.

For our fellow Finance Nerds: Azimut is getting interesting. This is the third pillar in what looks an awful lot like a strategy to digitize Egypt’s traditional savings vehicles. The asset manager already offers digital gold via az-Gold and has pushed into fixed income through its Azinvest platform. Real estate was the obvious next step.

MANAGEMENT + ADVISORS- Khaled Sakr is MD of Halan AZ, while Ahmed Abdel Meguid is MD of MNP, Halan AZ’s property manager. Azimut is fund manager, while Maatouk Bassiouny & Hennawy is counsel. Banque du Caire is mandated custodian and MCDR is central custodian of the fund’s investment certificates.

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Finance Ministry doubles transfer pricing compliance threshold to EGP 30 mn

The threshold that exempts companies from filing detailed transfer pricing documentation has now doubled to EGP 30 mn, effective immediately for the current tax period, according to a decree reviewed by EnterpriseAM. The Finance Ministry decision means companies whose annual transactions with related parties fall below the new EGP 30 mn mark are no longer required to submit a master file, local file, or country-by-country report, a government source told us.

TP or not TP? Transfer pricing, at its core, refers to the internal pricing mechanism used when a division or a subsidiary charges another entity within the same group for goods, services, or intellectual property. This internal invoice is important for the taxman, because it prevents companies from inflating or deflating the costs of inter-company transactions to lower their taxes. But it’s also important for the companies being taxed, as it can help prevent double taxation, especially when they have operations abroad.

Why it matters

This cuts a lot of red tape for mid-market companies and growing SMEs + helps the Egyptian Tax Authority (ETA) focus on quality over quantity. Transfer pricing compliance can be one of the most administratively heavy and expensive aspects of the tax code, often requiring specialized external consultants. By doubling the threshold, the ministry is removing a major friction point for companies that were previously caught in the compliance net despite having relatively low-value inter-company transactions.

It’s also good news for employees at the ETA: By raising the floor, the authority is clearing its desk of small-fry documentation to focus its audit resources on high-risk, high-value transactions involving large-caps and multinationals, where the potential for earnings-shifting is greatest.

The context

The decision ties in with a key pillar of Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk’s first tax facilitation package, which aims to move the Egyptian Tax Authority away from a culture of blanket inspections toward a risk-based auditing system.

But wait, hadn’t the government already doubled the threshold? Despite initially being listed among the facilities laid out in the government’s first tranche of facilities announced in October, it was later cut from the draft.

The new threshold also accounts for the impact of inflation and the depreciation of the EGP — a EGP 15 mn transaction today represents a much smaller volume of business than it did even just a year ago, never mind before the float of the EGP.

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Ministers blanket the airwaves to talk energy, mining, and airports

The 2026 outlook for Egypt’s energy and mining sectors and the country’s airport privatization push were in the spotlight on last night’s talk shows, with Oil Minister Karim Badawi and Civil Aviation Minister Sameh El Hefny appearing in separate interviews to talk about what to expect next year.

We’re getting a digital portal for mining sector investments in 2026, Badawi told Ala Masouleety’s Ahmed Moussa, as the ministry is working on new investment initiatives in the new year. Among these initiatives is launching a new gold refinery, as well as conducting the first aerial survey in more than four decades. The survey will look to identify mining prospects across the country, Badawi said.

ALSO- There will be no new fuel price increases until October 2026, Badawi told Moussa, saying that the government is looking to nearly double daily crude production to 1 mn barrels to achieve self-sufficiency (watch, runtime: 1:44:33).

Privatization ≠ selling…

The private sector is being brought in to manage and operate — not buy — airports in Egypt, Aviation Minister Sameh El Hefny told El Sora’s Lamees El Hadidy. All matters related to sovereign procedures — such as inspections, customs, or air traffic control — can’t be delegated to any private entity, and will continue to be handled by the government (watch, runtime: 00:39).

DATA POINT- Cairo Airport is expected to handle 30 mn passengers by the end of 2025, an increase of at least 2.5 mn passengers from 2024. Total passenger traffic across all airports in Egypt is expected to reach 60 mn by year-end, with a 20% growth rate at some airports (watch, runtime: 01:50).

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King Thutmose II’s tomb tapped among 2025’s top 10 archeological discoveries

Archeology Magazine gave a nod to the discovery of King Thutmose II’s tomb in its list of the Top 10 Discoveries of 2025, diving into the details of the discovery — made in February. The tomb, discovered in the Western Wadis of the Theban Necropolis in Luxor by an Egyptian-British team, was first believed it to be a royal woman’s tomb, but was later confirmed to be the pharaoh’s tomb due to evidence from dedications from Hatshepsut, Thuthmose II’s wife. The discovery marks the first discovery of a royal tomb of an 18th Dynasty pharaoh, since Tutankhamoun.

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Maersk returns to the Red Sea, EFG Hermes advises on Kuwait IPO, and EBRD gives Alexbank green financing

Maersk vessels are slowly making their way back to Red Sea waters

Shipping giant Maersk’s Sebarok ship passed through the Bab El Mandab Strait and the Red Sea for the first time in two years since the company stopped transiting the Red Sea route, it said on its website. The company plans to continue the gradual return of its sailing along the East-West route through the Red Sea and Suez Canal, “assuming that security thresholds continue to be met.” Meanwhile, no sailings are scheduled at the moment, it added.

Will other shippers follow suit? The move comes on the heels of French shipping giant CMA CGM’s rerouting of its India America Express (Indamex) service through the Red Sea, with the first vessel serving the service on the new program set to arrive at the Suez Canal on 8 January.

EFG Hermes wraps advisory on Action Energy IPO in Kuwait

EFG Hermes Investment Banking wrapped advisory on Action Energy Company (AEC)’s USD 179 mn IPO on Boursa Kuwait’s premier market with strong appetite (a 5x oversubscription rate) from local, regional, and international investors, it said in a statement (pdf). EFG Hermes was joint global coordinator and joint bookrunner on the transaction, which saw AEC offer 45.9% of its shares for sale.

BACKGROUND- EFG Hermes’ track record for the year now stands at 16 equity raises, 14 debt transactions, and eight M&As across Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Oman, and Egypt.

Valu, Infinity bank on BNPL to unlock Egypt’s home-charging bottleneck

Valu and Infinity are pivoting toward home-charger financing in a bid to tackle one of Egypt’s biggest EV adoption hurdles — home charging infrastructure. The two companies partnered to offer buy now, pay later plans for home EV chargers during this weekend’s EVs Electricity expo, targeting the high upfront cost that has slowed uptake, according to a joint statement (pdf).

The shift: Valu is moving beyond consumer goods into green infrastructure finance, wagering that financing the garage is as critical as financing the car. Under the agreement, Infinity customers can access six-month plans with 0% interest, zero down payment, and no purchase fees for home chargers, while public charging sessions can be paid in installments via the InfinityEV app, including cashback incentives.

Why it matters: This marks the formalization of green mobility as a distinct credit category in Egypt, following Valu’s earlier move into residential solar. With Infinity already operating 250+ stations and 850+ charging points nationwide, lowering the barrier to home charging could help accelerate demand — if the EV market is ready for it.

EBRD extends USD 20 mn in green financing to Alexbank

Alexbank landed USD 20 mn from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development for onlending to households and MSMEs for climate adaptation and mitigation, the lender said on its website. The package includes a USD 17 mn loan under the EU-backed Green Economy Financing Facility II, in addition to USD 3 mn co-financed by the Green Climate Fund. The package will also include incentive grants and EU-funded technical assistance aimed to “promote equal access to climate finance and green technologies for women and men.”

Valu places EGP 1.1 bn securitized bond

EGX-listed fintech player Valu closed a 1.1 bn securitized bond issuance. The transaction is the first under its eighth securitization program, worth some EGP 10 bn. The bond has an 18-month tenor and is structured in two fixed-rate tranches.

ADVISORS- EFG Hermes was the sole financial advisor, sole transaction manager, bookrunner, underwriter, and arranger on the issuance. AAIB and Al Ahli Bank of Kuwait were underwriters, while AAIB was custodian. Dreny & Partners acted as counsel and Baker Tilly as auditor.

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Brookfield wagers on real assets for 2026 as AI, energy, and dealmaking reshape returns

Brookfield is positioning 2026 as a year for real assets, not rate wagers. Higher-for-longer rates, geopolitical fragmentation, and AI-driven demand are reshaping where capital can earn durable returns, the firm said in its 2026 Investment Outlook (pdf).

Infrastructure sits at the center of the playbook: Brookfield is most bullish on digital infrastructure, power, and transport — assets tied to electrification, AI workloads, and critical material supply chain reconfiguration. Long-duration assets and inflation linkage, it says, are back in focus as volatility persists elsewhere.

Rather than chasing application-level top players, Brookfield favors owning the physical backbone of AI — data centers, grids, fiber, cooling, and compute-linked real estate — as energy constraints turn access to power into a competitive moat, reinforcing the infrastructure thesis, which pencils in investments of over USD 100 tn in the sector by 2040.

The trend will filter through to private equity, with Brookfield expecting platforms linked to digitization, services, and transition infrastructure to remain attractive, while capital-intensive and cyclical assets face higher hurdles. PE firms will also likely move away from leverage-driven returns and toward operational improvement and thematic growth.

And to M&A, which it expects to rebound in 2026, partly due to an increase in infrastructure mergers, alongside an easing of financing conditions and sellers reset expectations. Corporate carve-outs and sponsor-to-sponsor transactions are also likely to lead the recovery.

Real estate is stabilizing, unevenly: Brookfield sees a bottom forming across global property markets, with widening divergence by sector. Logistics, multifamily, student housing, and data center-adjacent assets are favored.

The takeaway: Brookfield argues investors who stayed defensive may be underexposed to the next phase of growth. With AI deployment broadening, infrastructure spending rising, and M&A thawing, it sees 2026 as a year where scale and patience regain the upper hand.

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EGX30	40,926	-1.39% (YTD: -1.39%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 47.52	Sell 47.65
USD (CIB)	Buy 47.53	Sell 47.63
Interest rates (CBE)	21.00% deposit	22.00% lending
Tadawul	10,450	+0.4% (YTD: -13.2%)
ADX	9,967	-0.3% (YTD: +5.8%)
DFM	6,114	+0.6% (YTD: +18.5%)
S&P 500	6,834	+0.9% (YTD: +16.2%)
FTSE 100	9,897	+0.6% (YTD: +21.1%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5760	+0.3% (YTD: +17.7%)
Brent crude	USD 60.47	+1.1%%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.98	+1.9%
Gold	USD 4,387	+0.5%
BTC	USD 87,902	-0.3% (YTD: -5.9%)
S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index	981.82	+0.1% (YTD: +27.7%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	151.80	-0.1% (YTD: +8.4%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	14.91	-11.6% (YTD: -14.1%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 1.4% at Thursday’s close on turnover of EGP 7.7 bn (44% above the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 37.6% YTD.

In the green: Abu Qir Fertilizers (+4.3%), Egypt Aluminum (+3.2%), and AMOC (+1.3%).

In the red: Eastern Company (-5.6%), Emaar Misr (-3.1%), and CIB (-2.7%).

CALENDAR

DECEMBER

25 December: (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2H 2025: Potential visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Egypt

4Q 2025: The beginning of construction works on China’s State Grid two solar projects.

4Q 2025: GB Auto starts assembling one of China’s Great Wall Motor models in 4Q 2025.

4Q 2025-1Q 2026: Kasrawy Group to launch first Avatr EV models in Egypt.

2025: The InterAcademy Partnership assembly.

2025: Nile Basin States Summit, Cairo, Egypt.

2025: Release of the government’s Startup Charter document.

Before 2025-end: The government will launch two ro-ro shipping lines with Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

2026

JANUARY

1 January (Thursday): European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to fully come into effect.

7 January (Wednesday): Coptic Christmas.

25 January (Sunday): Revolution Day / Police Day.

FEBRUARY

10-12 February (Tuesday-Thursday): Gitex Global’s AI Everything Middle East & Africa Summit

19 February (Thursday): First day of Ramadan (TBC).

MARCH

15 March (Sunday): IMF to hold its seventh review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

21 March: (Saturday): Eid El Fitr starts (TBC).

30 March - 1 April (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt International Energy Conference and Exhibition 2026 (EGYPES)

APRIL

12 April (Sunday): Coptic Easter.

25 April (Saturday): Sinai Liberation Day.

MAY

1 May (Friday): Labor Day.

27-29 May (Wednesday-Friday): Eid El Adha (TBC).

May: NEBU Egypt’s Gold & Jewelry Exhibition.

JUNE:

30 June (Tuesday): National holiday in observance of June 30 Revolution (TBC).

JULY

23 July (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Revolution Day (TBC).

AUGUST

26 August (Wednesday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

SEPTEMBER

15 September (Tuesday): IMF to hold its eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

27-29 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Egypt will host the fourth edition of the Global Conference on Population, Health and Human Development.

OCTOBER

6 October (Tuesday): Armed Forces Day.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

Early 2026: Passenger operations on the New Administrative Capital–Nasr City monorail scheduled to begin.

Early 2026: The government will launch the second package of tax facilitation measures.

1Q 2026: Trial operations for the Ain Sokhna–Sixth of October section of Egypt’s first high-speed rail line scheduled to begin.

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments

2H 2026: Operations at Deli Glass Co’s new USD 70 mn glassware factory kick off.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings for 2027.

2027: Egypt-EU Summit 2027

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

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