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Monday, 10 Jul 2023

What We're Tracking Today
Ipo
Legislation Watch
Regulation Watch
A Message From Hsbc
Debt Watch
Moves
Last Night’s Talk Shows
Egypt In The News
Also On Our Radar
Planet Finance
Diplomacy
Blackboard
Calendar

It’s a do-over: EGX will reset trading in Taqa Arabia shares today

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Today at a glance

1

What We're Tracking Today

 Madbouly gov’t set to announce privatization progress at Tuesday presser.
2

IPO

 A chaotic debut for Taqa Arabia as EGX resets shares that soared 83,000%.
3

LEGISLATION WATCH

 Investment incentives inch forward in the House + East Port Said port expansion gets nod.
4

REGULATION WATCH

 No-duty alcohol purchase limit for foreigners rises to three bottles from two.
5

DEBT WATCH

 IFC lends bank USD 250 mn to finance capital, sustainable lending.
6

LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

 No more hikes to public transport fares, says transport minister.
7

Diplomacy

 Egypt to host peacemaking summit with neighbors of Sudan.
8

PLANET FINANCE

 EM bonds soar on signs of debt reform for distressed countries.
9

BLACKBOARD

How Egyptian universities fared in scientific publication-centered rankings.

Monday, 10 Jul 2023

What We're Tracking Today
Ipo
Legislation Watch
Regulation Watch
A Message From Hsbc
Debt Watch
Moves
Last Night’s Talk Shows
Egypt In The News
Also On Our Radar
Planet Finance
Diplomacy
Blackboard
Calendar
1

What We're Tracking Today

THIS MORNING: Egyptian prime minister Moustafa Madbouly set to announce privatization progress at a press conference tomorrow

Good morning, wonderful people, and a very happy Monday. It’s another gentle summer day as far as the newsflow is concerned, with just enough going on to keep things interesting.

Before we get underway: Thank you to everyone who wrote in with smart suggestions for what we should be speaking about at our 18-19 September Enterprise Finance Forum. We’re sifting all the replies and will be in touch over the coming week or so. Want to attend? Register your interest here. The first round of invites will be going out soon.

DRIVING THE AGENDA THIS MORNING- A big privatization presser? The Madbouly government is on Tuesday expected to hold a press conference at which it will announce the completion of a number of asset sales as part of the state privatization program, two senior government sources confirmed to Enterprise on condition they not be named.

We’ve been expecting this: Planning Minister Hala El Said said before the holiday the government had met itsinitial setof privatization targets and would make news of transactions public after the Eid holiday. Cabinet had been targeting asset sales of USD 2 bn by the end of June. By our math, it had raised USD 153 mn before the break through the sales of paintmaker Pachin and of 10% of Telecom Egypt.

Among the possibilities: Recent reports have suggested that there’s been progress in talks about Telecom Egypt’s stake in Vodafone Egypt, Egyptian Chemical Industries (Kima), Ethydco, and a number of state-owned hotels. There has also been chatter about one of the Siemens-built power plants, though we would be surprised if that has already gone through.

Expect the pace to pick up in the coming months: Our friends at the International Finance Corporation came on board in June to advise on the privatization program, and a new cabinet-level body aims to streamline the process, support the good folks at the Sovereign Fund of Egypt, and smooth any bureaucratic obstacles between ministries when it comes to privatization sales.

SOUND SMART #1- The IFC will spend an initial (multi-month) period taking stock of assets and expressions of interest before making recommendations. It would not be surprising if the IFC were to be interested in investing in select assets itself further down the road.

SOUND SMART #2- A veteran banker is quarterbacking the cabinet’s asset management unit. Mahmoud El Sakka (LinkedIn) has crossed over from the Central Bank of Egypt to take on the role. El Sakka comes from AAIB, where he led investment banking and corporate finance.

AT THE EGX-

THE BIG STORY here at home is the drama that accompanied Taqa Arabia’s EGX debut yesterday. Shares in the utilities company mysteriously soared 83,000% during its first day of trading after a direct listing on the bourse, handing the company a market cap nearly 50x higher than its assessed fair value.

Taqa will get a do-over debut in today’s session. We have the lowdown in this morning’s newswell, below.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

Sidpec to complete Ethydco merger this quarter: Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals (Sidpec) is set to finalize its all-share merger with the Egyptian Ethylene and Derivatives Company (Ethydco) by the end of 3Q,a source with knowledge of the acquisition told Enterprise yesterday. The company is now working to obtain regulatory approval for the takeover and will soon determine the price, they said.

See this as privatization-adjacent, folks: A number of GCC-based parties have expressed interest in taking a stake in the merged entity, we have previously been told.

Remember: EGX-listed Sidpec, which currently owns 20% of Ethydco, has been eyeing acquiring the remaining shares in the company since last year. The firm was said in March to have completed due diligence, and last week approved the fair value studies.

IN THE HOUSE TODAY-

Bye-bye, tax breaks for (some) state-owned entities: MPs will discuss and vote on a bill eliminating preferential tax treatment for some state-owned organizations, as well as a bill setting up an EGP 1 bn disability fund.

Today at the House committees:

  • The Legislative and Constitutional Affairs Committee will discuss a draft law on the settlement of commercial and civilian disputes;
  • The Industrial Committee will review the manufacturing industries’ contribution to the economy;
  • The Social Solidarity Committee will look into issues facing the Takaful and Karama subsidy program;
  • The Local Administration Committee will look into the impact of the law regulating car parking areas.

THE REALIGNMENT-

Is El Sisi headed to Turkey this month? There are reports out of Turkey that President Abdel Fattah El Sisi will be heading to Ankara at the end of July, El Hekaya’s Amr Adib said last night (watch, runtime: 1:29).

BACKGROUND: The two countries last week appointed ambassadors for the first time in a decade, restoring diplomatic ties and marking a significant thawing of tensions. Officials from both countries have said publicly that they’re preparing a first meeting between El Sisi and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan, though a date is yet to be announced.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Ukraine’s bid to join Nato is taking center stage in the international press a day before the defense coalition’s summit kicks off in Vilnius, Lithuania. US President Joe Biden has said that allowing Kyiv to join Nato while the war with Russia continues would be “premature,” the Washington Postand New York Times report. Other member states are pushing the US and Germany to shift their “conservative” stance on Ukraine’s path to membership, the Financial Timesreports citing officials briefed on the talks.

ICYMI- Missed this week’s Inside Industry? In our weekly vertical exploring all things industry and manufacturing, we profiled Omar El Bakry, executive vice chairman of Insutech, our Manufacturer of the Month.

ENTERPRISE IS LOOKING FOR SMART, TALENTED PEOPLE of all backgrounds to help us build some very cool new things. Enterprise — the essential morning read on all the important news shaping business and the economy in Egypt and the region — is looking for writers, reporters and editors to help us build out new publications.

NEVER WORKED IN A NEWSROOM BEFORE? We have the Enterprise Business Writing Development Program. Whether you are a recent graduate, an industry vet, or looking to switch careers, the Enterprise Business Writing Development Program will give you the tools you need to tell the most important stories to our audience of C-suite officials, government ministers, diplomats, financiers, investors and entrepreneurs.

Not an internship program — a career: The three-month program will see full-time, paid participants take part in workshops and lectures from veteran business journalists, while also working on and filing stories that will run on any of our publications. Those who have successfully completed the program, will then be given long-term job offers.

Apply directly to jobs@enterprisemea.com and mention “reporter development program” in your subject line.

*** It’s Blackboard day: We have our weekly look at the business of education in Egypt, from pre-K through the highest reaches of higher ed.

In today’s issue: How did Egyptian universities fare in this year’s Leiden-Dutch Center for Science and Technology Studies (CWTS) rankings?

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2

IPO

EGX voids Taqa Arabia debut following 83,000% price surge

Well, that didn’t go to plan:Taqa Arabia’s debut yesterday as a publicly-traded company got off to a chaotic start as its shares closed up more than 83,000%. That prompted the EGX to roll back all of the day’s transactions and say it would give the company a second debut this morning.

Wait, 83,000%? The EGX usually only allows shares to rise or fall by 20% in a session before circuit breakers kick in and suspend trading. But in a decision announcedlast week, the bourse suspended the rules for the first day of dealing in Taqa shares, exposing the company’s stock to the volatility we saw yesterday.

Taqa = four CIBs:Taqa’s shares debuted on the exchange at their nominal EGP 0.50 price but soon rocketed almost 100,000% to EGP 500 before falling back to close at EGP 418.45. This left the company with a market cap of around EGP 566 bn — almost four times the valuation of CIB, the largest component of the benchmark EGX30.

What was Taqa Arabia worth before the listing? Its shares were worth EGP 8.90 apiece according to an independent valuation ahead of its debut, implying the company was worth EGP 12 bn (USD 393 mn) before public investors got the chance to weigh in.

Ctrl-alt-delete: In a statement after market close, the EGX said it would cancel all of the day’s dealings in Taqa shares.

It’s back to the drawing board this morning: Taqa’s shares will begin trading back at their EGP 0.50 book price at the opening bell today.

Remember: Taqa is a technical listing, not an IPO. The company’s shares have been made tradeable on the EGX, but there was no offering of equity (primary or secondary) arranged by existing shareholders prior to the listing. A technical listing simply makes it possible for shareholders pre-transaction to start offering shares for sale to other investors via the EGX.

The expectation was always that relatively few shareholders (compared to a “full” IPO) would choose to sell, given investment bankers didn’t have a mandate to widely market the sale to new investors, let alone engage to create a stabilization fund — or any of the other accouterments usually associated with an EGX debut.

So, what happened? In short: Few trades x big share price = outsized impact.The EGX attributed the surge in Taqa shares to 75 transactions worth just EGP 395k that it said were executed by mistake, which local media is reporting involved just 1,362 shares. A number of local and regional outlets are quoting traders saying that several trades were executed at between EGP 380 and EGP 500, triggering the surge in the company’s share price.

EGX boss Ramy El Dokany made substantially the same point on Amr Adib’s show last night, saying the bourse authorized today’s re-do at the request of brokerage companies. A number of day-traders placed online orders at EGP 500 per share, he said (watch, runtime: 11:02).

And price limits are reportedly still off the table: The EGX isn’t planning to reverse its decision to lift its circuit breaker during trading today, according to Al Masry Al Youm, which cites a source saying that no price limits will be in effect.

Advisors: EFG Hermes is quarterbacking the transaction, while Zulficar & Partners are providing counsel. Baker Tilly is the independent financial advisor and PwC is the auditor.

BACKGROUND: The Qalaa Holdings subsidiary is selling shares to public investors via a direct offering, rather than going the conventional IPO route. It listed its 1.35 bn shares on the exchange at a nominal value of EGP 0.50. It is trading under the ticker TAQA. The company published a statement (pdf) ahead of ringing the opening bell.

The energy distribution company is the first newcomer to the EGX this year, ending a drought of fresh listings triggered by the country’s economic crisis and global market volatility sparked by Russia’s war in Ukraine. The government is hoping to sell shares in several companies to the public in the coming months, includingtwo firms owned by the Suez Canal Authority, as part of its privatization agenda.

ALSO FROM TAQA-

Taqa wants to double its network of filling stations to 250 locations within the next two years, the company’s CEO, Pakinam Kafafi, told Asharq Business in an interview yesterday (watch, runtime: 2:08).

Adding a new line of business: The company has acquired an EV charging license and is currently installing some 250 chargers it has purchased, said Kafafi.

Expansion plans: Taqa will establish its first gas station in Tanzania in 4Q 2023. It has already signed a definitive agreement with a Saudi partner to establish a new company in the kingdom, Kafafi added.

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3

LEGISLATION WATCH

Egyptian House of Representatives gives preliminary approval to fresh investment incentives, East Port Said port terminal contracts

It was an FDI-themed day in the House yesterday. Here’s the rundown:

#1- House approves amendments aimed at boosting FDI: The House of Representatives yesterday gave preliminary approval to amendments to the 2017 Investment Law that lawmakers hope will help attract more foreign direct investment. The amendments were approved by the House Economic Affairs Committee last Wednesday.

The details: The proposed amendments will allow projects predating the 2017 bill to benefit from incentives and expand the variety of projects eligible for a single approval, known as the “golden license.” They aim to attract investment to sectors including “oil processing, fertilizers, iron and steel, LNG transport, and energy-intensive industries,” said Mohamed Abdel Hamid, deputy chair of the House Economic Committee.

Some MPs are happier than others: “These investment reforms might have come late but this is much better than never coming at all,” said Wafd Party Rep. Ayman Mehasseb. Egyptian Social Democratic Party Rep. Maha Abdel Nasser was less positive: “This is another cut-and-paste amendment of the investment law and I wonder how we will be able to implement this bill while we have so far failed to translate the state ownership policy document into fact on the ground,” she said. “The new amendments will not have any positive impact as long as we have two exchange rates for the USD on the local market,” she added.

REFRESHER- The amendments are part of 22 measures put forward by the Supreme Investment Council in May aimed at improving the business environment for the private sector by increasing transparency and competition. The government is aiming to attract USD 40 bn in private investment by 2026 as it looks to increase the private sector’s economic footprint, and to increase exports to USD 100 bn a year by the middle of the decade. Improving the business climate is also a key condition of our stalled USD 3 bn loan program with the IMF.

What next? Yesterday’s vote was preliminary approval only. MPs will need to pass the bill in a final plenary vote today or tomorrow. If they don’t do so before going on break tomorrow, it will slip to the fall session.

#2- MPs gave final approval to two bills allowing for the USD 565 mn redevelopment of the East Port Said port. The first bill allows the Suez Canal Economic Zone to hand a 30-year contract to Sky Logistics and Reliance Logistics to design, construct, manage, operate and maintain a new multi-purpose terminal worth USD 65 mn at the port. The second bill paves the way for Maersk’s Suez Canal Container Terminal to start work on a USD 500 mn container terminal. Both bills got the greenlight from the House Economic Affairs Committee last week.

Export hub ambitions: “The two bills are part of the government’s efforts aimed at upgrading Egyptian ports and turning them into international logistical centers and supply chain hubs,” Mostaqbal Watan Rep. Kamaleddin El Shafie said.

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4

REGULATION WATCH

Foreign passport holders can now buy up to 3 liters of duty-free alcohol on entry to Egypt

Foreign passport holders can buy more booze from zero-duty stores:The Finance Ministry made amendments to the customs law that will allow foreigners to buy up to 3 liters of alcohol for personal use from state-owned zero-duty stores, up from two liters currently, Al Mal reports.

But that extra liter will cost you: Buyers will face a higher fee equivalent to 25% of the customs rate on the additional liter of alcohol. The current 1% rate will still apply to the first two liters. Alcohol imports face customs taxes of between 1,200% and 3,000%, depending on the proof level.

This is in addition to the recently approved tax changes that impose a 3% charge on purchases from zero-duty shops and a 10% tax on purchases of more than 1 liter of alcohol.

A USD 13 minimum customs fee per liter remains unchanged: The minimum customs tax fee to be paid on each liter of distilled alcohol remains unchanged at USD 13.

The limit is USD 200: Buyers can purchase up to USD 200 worth of items without duties at approved stores within 48 hours of arriving in the country. This is limited to 3 liters of distilled alcohol and two cartons of cigarettes. They have the option to replace one liter of distilled alcohol with one carton of beer.

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5

A MESSAGE FROM HSBC

The sun is shining on Middle East solar energy — here’s why

The solar energy industry has developed rapidly across Middle Eastern markets in recent years, boosted by falling photovoltaic (PV) technology costs and a desire by national governments to demonstrate leadership on climate action. This trend has increased since Egypt hosted the COP27 conference last year, and as the UAE takes the baton, hosting COP28 in Dubai in December this year.

Renewable energy solutions, such as solar power, form a crucial part of the energy transition. Solar projects are springing up across the region, as solar PV has emerged as the cheapest source of electricity generation for new projects in GCC countries and beyond.

The Middle East has some of the highest solar energy potential anywhere in the world. Egypt, for instance, hosts one of the top five biggest solar energy sites in the world, Benban near Aswan. This site covers 37 sq km and will contribute to the government’s target of achieving 42% of energy from renewables by 2035. Benban comprises 34 solar power plants, each with a capacity of 50MW.

In the UAE, which aims to reach net zero by 2050, current trends predict the production capacity of clean energy, including solar and nuclear, to reach 14 GW by 2030, up from about 100 MW in 2015 and 2.4 GW in 2020. The sizable 5 GW capacity Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park has been growing in Dubai, and with investments totalling AED 50 bn (USD 13.6 bn), the solar park is expected to save over 6.5 mn tons of carbon emissions annually when completed. The emirate also aims to attract clean energy start-ups by creating the Dubai Green Zone via its USD 27 bn Green Energy Fund.

Abu Dhabi meanwhile is in the process of adding 3.5 GW across two sites. One of which — the Al Dhafra Solar PV project — is at 2 GW the world’s largest single solar site, and will provide clean energy to more than 110k households when it’s connected to the grid this year. In Saudi Arabia, some 10 GW of renewable capacity is in the pipeline. The kingdom, which aims to be carbon neutral by 2060, plans to boost its renewable energy capacity to 58.7 GW by 2030, from a target of 9.5 GW by 2023. Solar energy is expected to account for 68.1% of the 2030 goal.

Qatar, which plans to produce 20% of its energy from solar power by 2030, last year launched its 800 MWp Al Kharsaah Solar PV Independent Power Producer, the country’s first large-scale solar project. Covering 10 sq km, the equivalent of roughly 1,400 football fields, the project features 2 mn modules mounted on trackers and a semi-automated cleaning system.

And in Oman, the government inaugurated in 2022 its 500 MW Ibri Solar Power Plant, the country’s largest clean energy production facility, which is expected to help reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 340k tons a year, according to MESIA.

It’s an exciting time to be involved with the solar energy industry, and it’s clear that it will be leading the way on the green transition, offering investors a range of exciting new opportunities in the renewable energy market across the Middle East.

David Ramos (LinkedIn) is acting head of sustainability at HSBC Bank Middle East. HSBC’s column appears in Enterprise every second Monday.

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6

DEBT WATCH

A bank has secured USD 250 mn in loans from IFC to support capital, fund green projects

Our friends at the International Finance Corporation (IFC) are lending USD 250 mn to a private sector institution, giving Commercial International Bank two long-term loans worth a combined USD 250 mn to finance its capital and expand its green lending activities, the bank said in a statement (pdf) yesterday.

The IFC is extending a 10-year Tier 2 facility worth USD 150 mn to the EGX-listed bank, USD 90 mn of which will be used to refinance existing debt to the corporation and the remaining USD 60 mn to support the bank’s “sustainable growth plans.”

Expanding green lending: A second seven-year loan valued at USD 100 mn will support the bank’s lending to environmentally-friendly projects and MSMEs. These include water treatment and efficiency, renewable energy, green buildings, and sustainable agriculture.

Background: The lender signed off on the loans on 26 June, according to its website. The IFC is also providing advice to the bank to help it manage climate riskon its existing portfolio.

REMEMBER- The IFC covered all of the bank’s USD 100 mn green bond issuance in 2021.

The bank is looking to secure additional green finance this year, its head of financial institutions, Heba Abdel Latif, was quoted as telling Bloomberg.

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7

Moves

Egyptian president appoints new justice chiefs

Changing of the guard at three key judicial institutions: New heads of the Court of Cassation, the Administrative Prosecution Authority and the State Lawsuits Authority have been sworn in by President El Sisi, Ittihadiya said yesterday.

Court of Cassation: Judge Hossny Hassan Abdel Latif Abou Zaid has replaced Judge Mohamed Eid Mohamed as chief justice. The Court of Cassation is Egypt’s highest appeals court.

Administrative Prosecution Authority (APA): Judge Hafez Ahmed Abbas replaced Judge Adly Abdel Fattah Zayed as head of the APA. The authority prosecutes administrative and other crimes committed by members of the civil service.

Sate Lawsuits Authority: Judge Mosaad Abdel Maksoud succeeds Judge Mohamed Mohamed Bakr as head. The SLA is effectively Egypt’s attorney-general, representing the state in legal matters.

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8

LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

Egyptian minister rules out public transport fare hikes on talk shows

It was a slightly busier night on the airwaves as the nation’s talking heads brought us coverage of the latest from the Transport Ministry and the so-called Madinaty murder trial.

There will be no further public transport fare hikes, Transport Minister Kamal El Wazir told Ala Mas’ouleety (watch, runtime: 3:31), without elaborating on how long this freeze on fares will last Public transport fares — including taxis, microbuses and buses — increased around 10% in May following an EGP 1.00 increase in the price of diesel.

Defending the Transport Ministry’s EGP 2 tn spend on projects over the past decade: “No investors will come into the country and we won’t be able to set up any factories without the necessary transportation set up,” El Wazir said (watch, runtime: 3:16), adding that “basic structure is worth investing in and the EGP 2 tn figure isn’t that major.”

Military wraps up investigation into Madinaty murderer: The military prosecution has finished its investigation into the military doctor being charged with murder and attempted murder after he ran over and killed a pharmacist and injured her husband and children following an altercation in the Madinaty compound. The defendant will soon be referred to the Military Criminal Court, Armed Forces Spokesman Gharib Abdel Hafez said in a statement. The news received coverage from Kelma Akhira (watch, runtime: 6:08), Masa’a DMC (watch, runtime: 2:55), and El Hekaya (watch, runtime: 6:11).

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9

EGYPT IN THE NEWS

Ramses exhibit in Sydney hits Australian headlines

Ramses down under: Australian news outlets SBS News, the Sydney Morning Herald,and the Mirage are taking note of the Ramses II exhibition that will head from Paris to Sydney’s Australian Museum this November. In Sydney to inspect the exhibition site, Secretary-General of the Supreme Council of Antiquities Mostafa Waziri weighed in on the debate over whether ancient Egyptian artifacts should be under foreign ownership. “I don’t mind if we have Egyptian artifacts in Australia,” he said. “They have thousands of pieces in the Louvre Museum. I don’t care. We have obelisks in Italy, England, and America. They are for me like ambassadors in those countries.”

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10

Also on our Radar

Chinese delegation visits Egypt’s SCZone. PLUS: 6 gold complexes + Steel anti-dumping duties extended + Contact x Telda + Qardy x Egypt Post

INVESTMENT-

SCZone welcomes Chinese delegation: A Chinese business delegation from Jilin province met with Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone) representatives to explore investment prospects, the SCZone said yesterday. This comes a few weeks after the SCZone signed a number of initial agreements for projects worth hundreds of mns of USD with Chinese companies during a roadshow in China.

FINTECH-

Contact x Telda: Contact Financial’s consumer finance arm Contact Creditech and digital payments app Telda have teamed up to offer lending-as-a-service (LaaS) solutions that enable Telda users to apply for a credit limit from Contact, according to a joint statement (pdf).

Qardy is now available via Egypt Post: SME lending startup Qardy has signed an agreement with Egypt Post to provide its services via Egypt Post branches, according to a press release (pdf). Launched last year, Qardy’s online marketplace allows SMEs to access debt financing from financial institutions.

TRADE-

Anti-dumping duties on steel imports extended: The Trade and Industry Ministry has approved extending anti-dumping duties on reinforced steel imports from China, Turkey, and Ukraine for another four years, according to a decision published in the Official Gazette. The duties have been in effect since 2017.

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PLANET FINANCE

EM bond rally here to stay? PLUS: Turkey expects USD 10 bn in Gulf FDI + Oil production cuts could backfire on Saudi Arabia

EM bond rally lives on: Emerging market bonds are seeing significant gains and investors are wagering that there could be more to come, Bloombergwrites, as signs of reform in EMs that have long struggled with heavy debt burdens drive optimism. USD bonds from Zambia, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka have seen returns of 25% in the past month after the three countries saw progress on debt reform and restructuring — compared with 1.3% for a wider index of developing nation debt.

This could be good news for Egyptian sovereign debt: “Our preference has been the countries that have really avoided default and we think can continue to avoid default going forward,” UBS Asset Management's Shamaila Khan said, namechecking Egypt and Nigeria. Egypt’s sovereign USD bonds saw gains over the past week, riding the wave of gains in other EMs.

Turkey looks to drum up FDI from the Gulf: Turkey expects an upcoming visit by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE to result in USD 10 bn in direct investment, Reuters reports citing two senior Turkish officials. The countries could ultimately invest USD 30 bn in Turkey’s energy, infrastructure, and defense sectors over the longer term, they added. Erdogan’s visit, which is scheduled for 17-19 July, comes as he country continues to face economic challenges in the wake of his recent reelection and amid the rapprochement between Ankara and Cairo.

Saudi economy could contract if oil cuts continue: Saudi Arabia’s economy could see a 1% contraction if the kingdom chooses to stick with its current production cuts through to the end of 2023, according to Bloomberg Economics. Any contraction would mark a sharp change of fortunes for the KSA, which was the G20’s fastest growing economy in 2022, seeing nearly 9% growth. Saudi has so far only said it will extend production cuts through August.

EGX30

16,555

-3.2% (YTD: +13.4%)

USD (CBE)

Buy 30.84

Sell 30.96

USD at CIB

Buy 30.85

Sell 30.95

Interest rates CBE

18.25% deposit

19.25% lending

Tadawul

11,609

+0.1% (YTD: +10.8%)

ADX

9,604

+0.0% (YTD: -5.9%)

DFM

3,962

+0.0% (YTD: +18.8%)

S&P 500

4,399

-0.3% (YTD: +14.6%)

FTSE 100

7,257

-0.3% (YTD: -2.6%)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,237

+0.3% (YTD: +11.7%)

Brent crude

USD 78.47

+2.6%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 2.58

-1.0%

Gold

USD 1,932.50

-0.9%

BTC

USD 30,209

+0.1% (YTD: +82.6%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 3.2% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 5.1 bn (119% above the trailing 90-day average). Foreign investors were net sellers. The index is up 13.4% YTD.

In the green: Juhayna (+3.7%) (setting aside Taqa Arabia…)

In the red: Mopco (-17.9%), Qalaa Holdings (-16.1%) and Ibnsina Pharma (-12.5%).

Asian markets are mostly up in early trading this morning and futures suggest European markets will also open in the green, while Wall Street is set for a more mixed open later on today.

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12

Diplomacy

Egypt to host peacemaking summit of Sudan’s neighbors

Egypt is hosting a meeting of Sudan’s neighbors on Thursday to look into ways to put an end to the ongoing civil war in Sudan, according to an Ittihadiya statement. The summit will work to set up “effective mechanisms” to stop the bloodshed in coordination with regional and international players, the statement reads, without clarifying which countries will participate. It has been three months since fighting first broke out between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces, killing over 3k people and forcing some 3 mn to flee their homes. Egypt has so far taken in more than 255k refugees from the conflict, according to latest UN data.

International coverage: Bloombergand Reutersboth covered the story.

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Our weekly deep dive into education in Egypt, from K-12 to post-secondary.

Published every Monday in EnterpriseAM.

Read Blackboard
13

BLACKBOARD

Looking at Egyptian universities’ performance in the 2023 CWTS Leiden Ranking

How Egyptian universities fared in scientific publication-centered rankings: In this year’s edition of the Leiden-Dutch Center for Science and Technology Studies (CWTS) rankings of global universities, Egyptian universities have broadly improved their performance compared to last year. Out of the 13 Egyptian universities included in the 2023 rankings, six are ranked higher than they were last year, while only three fared worse, one remained unchanged, and three other universities were included for the first time this year. The 2023 ranking covers the period from 2018-2021, while the 2022 ranking looked at the 2017-2020 period.

About the ranking: The Leiden Ranking is a bibliometric ranking of major universities worldwide. The exclusive focus on the scientific performance of universities also distinguishes the Leiden Ranking from other university rankings.The ranking provides statistics on scientific impact, collaboration, open access publishing, and gender diversity. The ranking is based on bibliographic data from the Web of Science database produced by Clarivate, with the 2023 ranking based on the number of indexed publications between 2018 and 2021. The ranking does not consider “other aspects of the performance of universities, in particular their contribution to teaching,” according to the CWTS website.

How does it differ from other major ranking systems? The ranking differs from others — such as the Times Higher Education (THE) or QS World University Rankings — primarily in its methodology. Leiden relies largely on ranking universities based on data directly from journals where universities’ scientific research was published, rather than using data or information from universities themselves. The ranking also emphasizes size-independent indicators, meaning it looks at the volume of scientific research output from each university in terms of absolute numbers and in percentage terms to account for each university’s size.

Explaining Leiden’s indicators: Universities are ranked by default by their number of publications, represented by the P indicator. This indicator is presented together with two other indicators: The P (top 10%) indicator and the PP (top 10%) indicator. These indicators show, respectively, the absolute number of highly cited publications of a university and a university’s percentage of highly cited publications.

Which Egyptian universities improved the most compared to last year: Cairo University continued to be the highest-placed Egyptian institution in the Leiden Ranking, rising 15 spots in this year’s edition to 275 overall. The absolute number of highly cited publications from the university rose to 313 from 305, with the PP indicator inching up 0.1 percentage points to 6.5%. Al Azhar University — the eighth-highest ranking Egyptian institution — staged the strongest improvement compared to last year’s ranking, rising 96 spots overall to 925. The improvement was buoyed by the university’s absolute number of cited publications rising to 133 from 81, while the percentage of its publications that were highly cited rose 1.7 percentage points to 8.7%.

Also improving y-o-y:

  • Ain Shams University (ranked second in Egypt), which rose 32 spots to 537;
  • Mansoura University (ranked third in Egypt), which rose 41 spots to 572;
  • Alexandria University (ranked fourth in Egypt), rising 40 spots to 617;
  • Zagazig University (ranked fifth in Egypt), rising 81 spots to 637;
  • Assiut University (ranked sixth in Egypt), which rose 12 spots to 832;
  • Tanta University (ranked seventh in Egypt), which rose 45 spots to 907;
  • Menoufia University (ranked ninth in Egypt), rising 42 spots to 1062; and
  • Beni Suef University (ranked 10th in Egypt), which rose 53 spots to 1145.

We also have a set of newcomers: Benha University (1232), Minya University (1311), and Kafr El Sheikh University (1380) cracked into the ranking this year for the first time. Benha University had 91 highly-cited publications between 2018-2021, accounting for 9.3% of its total scientific research output.

REMEMBER- Broadly speaking, we’re in pretty good shape when it comes to scientific and academic research, as we’ve noted previously. Egyptian university rankings have been rising over the past several years, mostly due to increased citations and more industry income. Our universities are among the fastest-rising higher education institutions in the world out of all those tracked and ranked by THE, which places extra emphasis on research capabilities. Egypt’s overall strong performance comes despite individual researchers having a hard time going about their business, mostly as a result of a lack of funding and challenges in acquiring the basic equipment necessary to complete their research.

Your top education story for the week:Italian satellite campuses incoming? Higher Education Minister Ayman Ashour met with the Italian ambassador and delegates from the University of Campania Luigi Vanvitelli and the University of Naples Federico II to explore potentially setting up branches of the Italian universities in Egypt, according to a ministry statement.

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CALENDAR

JULY

12-13 July (Wednesday-Thursday): Finance Ministry to pay out first batch of export subsidies under sixth phase of subsidies program.

15 July (Saturday): Deadline for EGAS + EGPC bid rounds for gas exploration and development of mature oil fields.

15 July (Saturday): Rollout of the fourth phase of the Egyptian Tax Authority’s e-receipt system.

18 July (Tuesday): Islamic New Year.

18-19 July (Tuesday-Wednesday): Egypt Mining Forum, Nile Ritz-Carlton, Cairo.

19 - 20 July (Wednesday - Thursday): Gov’t to pay out subsidies to second wave of applicants under its sixth export subsidy program.

20 July (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Islamic New Year (TBC).

23 July (Sunday): Revolution Day.

25-26 July (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

27 July (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Revolution Day.

31 July (Monday): Application deadline for the Smart Green Projects initiative.

31 July (Monday): Emigration Ministry’s Egyptians Abroad conference.

Late July-14 August: 2Q2023 earnings season.

AUGUST

August: Hassan Allam Utilities + Agility to open Yanmu East logistics park.

2 - 3 August (Wednesday - Thursday): Gov’t to pay out subsidies to second wave of applicants under its sixth export subsidy program.

3 August (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

10 August (Thursday): Shalateen Mineral Resources gold mining tender closes.

22-24 August (Tuesday-Thursday): BRICS summit, Johannesburg, South Africa.

SEPTEMBER

September: Sustainable Debt Coalition Initiative agreed at COP27 to launch.

September: IDH to open first branch in Saudi Arabia.

September: The Egypt-Germany trade and investment joint conference in Cairo.

September: JETRO’s second delegation arrives in Cairo.

9-10 September (Saturday-Sunday): G20 summit, New Delhi, India.

10-12 September (Sunday-Tuesday): The International Agricultural Exhibition for Africa and the Middle East, Sahara.

15 September (Friday): IMF to review USD 3 bn program.

15 September (Friday): Deadline for FX bureaus to comply with new capital requirements.

17-18 September (Sunday-Monday): Arab Security Conference and Exhibition, Nile Ritz Carlton.

17-19 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Sharm Rendezvous, Rixos Premium Seagate, Sharm ElSheikh.

19-20 September (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

21 September (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

21-23 September (Thursday-Saturday): Narrative PR Summit, Somabay.

25 September (Monday): Nasdaq deadline for Swvl Holdings Corp to increase its market value of publicly held shares to a minimum of USD 15 mn.

25-26 September (Monday-Tuesday): Egypt to host the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank’s annual board meeting, Sharm El Sheikh.

26 September (Tuesday): Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

28 September (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

28-29 September (Thursday-Friday) Medical Tourism Conference, Sharm ElSheikh.

OCTOBER

October: Deadline for ins. providers to link their databases with the FRA.

2-4 October (Monday-Wednesday): Sharm Rendezvous - Ins. Market, Rixos Premium Seagate, Sharm ElSheikh.

2-5 October (Monday-Thursday): ADIPEC 2023, Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center.

6 October (Friday): Armed Forces Day.

9-11 October (Monday-Wednesday): Arabs Savings and Financial Literacy Conference, Four Seasons Hotel.

13 October- 20 October (Friday-Friday): The sixth edition of El Gouna Film Festival (GFF).

Late October-14 November: 3Q2023 earnings season.

15-17 October (Sunday-Tuesday): Egypt Automotive Aftermarket Exhibition, Cairo International Convention Center.

26 October (Thursday): Daylight saving time ends.

29-31 October (Sunday-Tuesday): Egypt Energy, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

29 October - 2 November (Sunday- Thursday): Cairo Water Week.

30-31 October (Monday-Tuesday): Intelligent Cities Exhibition and Conference, Dusit Thani LakeView, Cairo.

30-31 October (Monday-Tuesday): Global Business School Network (GBSN), American University of Cairo.

31 October - 1 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

NOVEMBER

2 November (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

9-15 November (Thursday-Wednesday): Intra-African Trade Fair, Cairo.

14-15 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): Destination Africa, Royal Maxim Palace Kempinski Hotel.

15-24 November (Wednesday-Friday): Cairo International Film Festival, Cairo.

19-22 November (Sunday-Wednesday): Cairo ICT, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

23 November (Thursday): Worldview Education Fair, Cairo. (Register here)

30 November-12 December (Thursday-Tuesday): COP28, Dubai.

DECEMBER

10-11 December (Sunday-Monday): eGlobe Expo, St. Regis Almasa Hotel, Cairo.

12-13 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

12-14 December (Tuesday-Thursday): Food Africa Expo, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

21 December (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2023: The inauguration of the Grand Egyptian Museum.

Summer 2023: EGX to launch a shariah-compliant index.

1H 2023: GAFI roadshow set to launch to drum up foreign investment for golden licenses

1H 2023: Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank intends to launch a digital consumer finance company

2H 2023: Egyptian government expected to sign agreements with a consultant for the EuroAfrica electricity interconnector.

2H 2023: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expected to hold a summit.

3Q 2023: E-Finance to launch in Saudi Arabia.

4Q 2023: EGX to launch its new futures exchange.

End of 2023: A Developments’ first phase of the Lazoghly development completed.

2024: Standard Chartered Bank to open a branch in Egypt.

November 2024: Egypt to host the 12th session of the World Urban Forum (WUF12).

2Q 2025: Safaga Terminal 2 to initiate operations.

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