Inflation eases to lowest level in 17 months

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What We're Tracking Today

Egypt’s central bank meets later this week to review rates

Good morning, friends. It is shaping up to be a busy week with the latest inflation data, more on the new government’s plans for the coming three years, and news from the IMF.

THE BIG STORY HERE AT HOME-

It’s all about the hefty 276-page document outlining the new cabinet’s hopes and ambitions for the country for the coming three years. The document lets us in on the state’s plan to boost private sector involvement in the economy and industry and outlines fresh goals.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Afreximbank could more than double its Egypt-bound financing this year: The Cairo-headquartered African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) is considering providing Egyptian banks and firms with an additional USD 3.2 bn in financing this year, Global Trade Bank Executive Vice President Haytham El Maayergi told Asharq Business. The additional financing would bring the bank’s total financing to local entities this year to USD 5 bn, he added.

#2- How will AI impact the local job market? The Labour Ministry will form a task force to look into the impact of artificial intelligence on the job market, according to a statement.

HAPPENING TODAY-

CBE holds t-bill auction: The Central Bank of Egypt is looking to raise some EGP 135 bn from auctioning off EGP-denominated treasury bills — the bills will have tenors ranging from three months to one year, according to the CBE’s website. The submission deadline for the six-month and one-year t-bills is today at 11am, while the deadline for the three- and nine-month t-bills is tomorrow.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

It’s interest rate week: The central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet on Thursday, 18 July to review rates, after leaving key rates unchanged when it last met in May.

PSA-

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It’s even nicer in Alexandria, with a high of 33°C and a low of 24°C.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Donald Trump was wounded in what is being called an assassination attempt after a shooting at a rally during the early hours of today (local time). The Republican candidate was reported safe after being hit by a bullet in his right ear, while the suspected gunman and another attendee were reported dead and two others are in critical condition.

In typical Trump fashion: He was seen pumping his fist as he was being rushed offstage and into his car by the Secret Service and he is said to be in “great spirits” after the accident.

CLOSER TO HOME- At least 90 Palestinians were killed and 300 others were injured in the latest wave of Israeli attacks yesterday, said to have been targeting Hamas official Mohammed Deif.

AND ON THE BUSINESS FRONT- Rate cut incoming? The US Federal Reserve has sent its “strongest signal yet” that it will move forward with highly-anticipated rate cuts following easing inflation. Traders now see the Fed first cutting rates in September.

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Egypt’s new cabinet’s goals for the next three years and how they can be achieved

Breaking down the new government’s plans for the next three years: The new Madbouly government laid down its plans for its three-year term in a 276-page document that Enterprise got a hold of. The document adds more color to the government’s policy statement delivered by Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly last week.

TL;DR: The document breaks down the plans into four simple goals — protecting national security and Egypt’s foreign policy, building up the Egyptian citizen, building a competitive economy that attracts investments, and achieving political stability.

THE ROAD TO MORE PRIVATE SECTOR INVOLVEMENT-

The goal: Private investments to make up 51% of total investments in Egypt by the fiscal year 2026-2027 and 70% by 2030. Private investments made up 25.5% of total investments last fiscal year.

The how:

Leasing rights: Allowing private players to lease unused units owned by the Public Enterprise Ministry.
Transparency: In an effort to move forward with privatization plans, the new government will be prioritizing transparency when it comes to state-owned companies — sharing annual reports of the companies’ portfolios.
Revamping the tendering process: The plan includes having all tenders concerning the biggest 50 state-owned companies laid out on the designated digital platform.
Making it easier to set up projects: The new government will work to make it quicker and easier for investors to set up projects and receive the necessary licenses.
Incentives: The state will be offering incentives and tax breaks aimed at boosting FDI in industry and other priority sectors.

For better, more competitive local industries: The government will also focus on boosting high-quality domestic industries and growing local supply chains to limit imports, meet local market needs, and become a part of global and regional value chains. By the fiscal year 2026-2027, the plan aims to see industrial output growing 31.2% a year and increase exports to USD 130 bn by 2026-27 and to USD 145 bn by 2030.

The roadmap: In order to achieve its goals by the set timeline, the government will be taking a set of steps to help boost local industry, that includes setting up more industrial zones, offering more incentives, improving the infrastructure surrounding industrial zones, and continuing to market and promote industrial complexes.

OTHER GOALS WORTH NOTING-

#1- Less unemployment: The cabinet aims to reduce the unemployment rate to 6.5% by FY 2026-27 and to 6.1% by 2030. Egypt’s unemployment rate fell to 6.7% of the total workforce in the first quarter of this year, inching down 0.2 percentage points from the previous quarter.

#2- Better healthcare: The government aims to expand health ins. coverage to reach 85% of the population by 2026-2027 and have local pharma production meet 94% of local market needs.

#3- Revised tourism target: The cabinet has revised downwards its tourism target and now expects to welcome 25 mn tourists annually by 2030, down from a previously-set goal of hitting 30 mn tourists by 2028. Egypt is expected to welcome 15.7 mn tourists during the current fiscal year and 17.8 mn during FY 2026-27.

We’ve only scratched the surface: The document also details the new government’s goals for infrastructure, logistics, aviation, and more. Look out for the rest of our coverage in upcoming issues.

The IMF pushing back Egypt’s third loan review is “not unusual,” says the Fund’s comms director

Why did the IMF postpone our third review? The IMF Executive Board has pushed back the third review of our USD 8 bn loan program to 29 July to “finalize some details,” IMF Communications Director Julie Kozack said on Thursday during a press briefing. The postponement “is not unusual in these kinds of circumstances,” she said, pointing to regional headwinds and domestic structural challenges. The IMF is “quite confident on the path forward for Egypt,” she added.

Remember: The IMF Executive Board was initially scheduled to discuss the third review on 10 July, before the Fund pushed the meeting to the end of the month. The greenlight from the board will see the Fund disburse a fresh USD 820 tranche into the state coffers and will allow Egypt to apply for an additional USD 1.2 bn in climate finance. Egypt and the IMF reached a staff-level agreement on the third review early last month.

The challenges? Kozack cited a drop in Suez Canal receipts, explaining that revenues from the waterway have fallen by more than half from last year, straining the economy and depriving the country of an important source of foreign exchange and fiscal revenue. The Central Bank’s most recent current account data showed Suez Canal receipts falling 57.2% y-o-y drop in the third quarter of the 2023-2024 fiscal year after Houthi attacks on vessels passing the waterway started to pick up.

All in all, things are looking up: “Recent efforts by the Egyptian authorities to restore macroeconomic stability have helped improve economic conditions in Egypt,” Kozack said. “Inflation has fallen for four consecutive months … the foreign exchange demand backlog has been eliminated, and there are signs that the three and a half-year contraction in private sector activity is finally reversing.”

AND- IMF to lower surcharges on borrowers? The IMF is conducting a “comprehensive review” of the surcharges it levies on borrower countries, Kozack confirmed in response to a question on the topic. The question follows reports last week that the Executive Board would meet to discuss options to lower surcharges after several countries raised concerns that the penalties were becoming too hefty in light of higher interest rates and inflation. Egypt is the Fund’s third largest debtor with USD 10.3 bn of outstanding credit, behind Ukraine and Argentina.

The story also caught the attention of the int’l press: Reuters.

Egypt’s inflation falls to lowest level in 17 months, recording 27.5% in June

Annual inflation slows for the fourth consecutive month: Annual urban headline inflation cooled 0.6 percentage points to 27.5% in June, down from 28.1% in May despite fears of renewed inflationary pressures following a historic increase in subsidized bread prices, according to figures from state statistics agency Capmas. This month’s inflation figure is the lowest recorded since January 2023.

Despite an overall dip in inflationary pressure, food and beverage prices were up: Food and beverage prices — the largest component of the basket of goods and services used to calculate headline inflation — rose 31.9% y-o-y in June, up 0.9 percentage points from the month prior. One of the biggest contributors to this jump in food inflation was a 33.2% y-o-y increase in bread and cereals on the back of the government’s decision to quadruple subsidized bread prices that came into effect at the beginning of June. The uptick in the overall figure was limited by bread only constituting around 1% of the basket of goods that make up food and beverages.

There was no single factor driving the overall deflationary trend: Except for alcohol and tobacco, which dropped 29.2 percentage points to 57.7% y-o-y, inflationary trends were mixed. The favorable base effect also helped absorb some of the price hikes and help keep annual inflation from picking up.

Most analysts were spot-on with their forecasts: A Reuetrs poll of 17 analysts got it right to the decimal point with its forecast of 27.5%.

Monthly inflation was back in the red: On a monthly basis, inflation was up 1.6% on all items, after having fallen 0.7% m-o-m in May — in what was the first such fall in prices since June 2022. Driving the trend were food and beverage prices increases, which were up 2.6% from the month before on the back of a 12.3% rise in bread and cereals prices. Monthly inflation had been on a downward trend for three consecutive months.

Core inflation was down: Annual core inflation — which excludes volatile items such as food and fuel — slowed 0.5 percentage points to 26.6%, down from 27.1% in May, according to data from the Central Bank of Egypt. Monthly core inflation, meanwhile, stood at 1.3%, up from -0.8% during the month prior.

Most analysts seem to be confident that the disinflationary trend will continue, but risks remain: While the government, along with most analysts and financial institutions, see inflation continuing to cool for the rest of the year, expected energy, fertilizers, and meds price hikes are still a concern. “Increases to electricity and fuel prices present upside risks in the coming months, but we continue to expect the disinflation process to continue in the coming months and into 2025,” Capital Economics said in a note seen by Enterprise.

The international press also picked up our latest inflation data: Reuters | Bloomberg.

Fertiglobe awarded EUR 397 mn bid to supply Europe with Egyptian-made green ammonia

Egyptian-made green ammonia to help power Europe’s green transition: Germany, through its H2Global hydrogen initiative, awarded a 20-year, EUR 397 mn green ammonia offtake agreement with UAE-based renewables player Fertiglobe, according to a statement from the OCI Global- and Adnoc-owned company. This came after Fertiglobe won the first of a number of tenders to be launched by the German side to secure green hydrogen.

The details: The agreement will see Fertiglobe supply H2Global with up to 19.5k tons of green ammonia annually beginning in 2027, which could be cranked up to 397k tons by 2033 at a rate of EUR 1k per ton. It will then resell it at a reduced rate to EU companies, according to a statement from the German Economic Affairs Ministry.

But where will the green ammonia come from? Fertiglobe’s green hydrogen partnership with Orascom Construction, Scatec, the Sovereign Fund of Egypt (SFE), and the Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company — dubbed Egypt Green Hydrogen — will provide the green hydrogen needed for Fertiglobe to produce green ammonia at its ammonia plants. The consortium’s plant kicked off a trial phase in November 2022 and aims to produce some 13k tons of green hydrogen a year. Fertiglobe will buy the plant’s production of green ammonia for the coming 20 years — marking the world’s first long-term green ammonia purchase agreement.

The first of many: The German side is already preparing to launch a second tender under its H2Global initiative looking for international contracts to supply green hydrogen — Germany’s Economic Affairs Ministry has earmarked EUR 3.53 bn for the initiative.

Remember: Local and foreign investor appetite for the sector is building alongside the government’s plan to turn Egypt into a regional hub for green hydrogen production by 2026 and a global hub by 2030. The country aims to produce 3.2 mn tons of green hydrogen per year by 2030 and 9.2 mn tons per year by 2040.

The story also got ink from: Bloomberg | Reuters.

Eni to drill two new wells in Egypt’s Zohr in 2025

Eni to up its Egypt operations next year: Italian Energy giant Eni plans to drill two new wells in the Zohr field in 2H 2025 with investments of USD 160 mn, an unnamed government official reportedly told Asharq Business. The company is currently conducting geological studies ahead of resuming drilling in the Shorouk concession where the Zohr field is located, the source added.

Egypt’s recent clearing of oil and gas arrears may have played a role: An Eni delegation was in town last week, where it met with newly-appointed Oil Minister Karim Badawi and unveiled plans to drill new wells in its Egyptian concessions. This came shortly after the news that Egypt had cleared USD 1.3 bn worth of arrears to foreign oil and gas companies operating in the country at the end of June, amounting to around 20% of its outstanding dues. Earlier in the year, the Oil Ministry had quelled rumors that Eni had quit operating in Zohr because of unpaid arrears.

Remember: The Zohr gas field, understood to be the Mediterranean's largest-ever find and Egypt’s largest gas field, was once expected to turn the country into a leading regional and international natural gas exporter. However, the field has seen production decline from a peak of 2.76 bn cubic feet per d ay in 3Q 2021 to below 2 bn cf/d in the past six months, the regional business outlet reports.

Eni has had an on-again, off-again relationship with Egypt over the last few years: The Italian company’s plans to drill new wells follows earlier reports that it had slowed exploration operations in Egypt — Eni’s production in the country dropped by 11.7% y-o-y by the end of the 1Q 2024. And before this in September of last year, Eni announced that it would invest USD 7.7 bn with its partners over the next four years to expand its Egypt operations.

Eni’s appetite for its Egypt operations is a big deal for our energy sector: Eni, along with its partners, is responsible for producing around 60% of Egypt’ natural gas. It also owns 50% of the Damietta LNG plant, one of the country’s two liquefaction facilities that are key to the government’s increasingly long-term export ambitions.

DATA POINT- Eni has invested some USD 39 bn in Egypt since it kicked off operations here — USD 13.5 bn of which were spent on developing the Zohr field, according to a statement.

El Sisi inks free trade agreement with Serbian counterpart

A diplomacy-heavy night: The nation’s talking heads were fixated on Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić’s time in Cairo and his meeting with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi over the weekend.

What went down: The two sides inked a FTA which will “significantly boost economic and trade cooperation” between them, El Sisi said during the joint presser held following the meeting. Egypt and Serbia have been negotiating the agreement for two years — it was first brought to the light during El Sisi’s 2022 visit to Serbia. They also inked ten other cooperation agreements covering various fields.

"The visit represents a strong push to enhance bilateral relations across various fields," international relations expert Ahmed Sayed told Al Sa’aa Al Sadesa’s Azza Moustafa (watch, runtime: 6:35). Ala Maso’uleety also had the story (watch, runtime: 4:36 | 2:57)

ALSO IN THE DIPLOMACY SPHERE- MoUs with China: Planning and International Cooperation Minister Rania Al Mashat inked three MoUs with China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the China International Development Cooperation Agency (CIDCA) during her visit to Beijing for the second edition of the Forum on Global Action for Shared Development.

The details: The MoUs will see the two sides work together to deploy China's BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) in Egypt, establish a center for people with motor disabilities in Egypt, and exchange expertise in the fields of macroeconomics, industrial development, renewable energy, technological innovation, and sustainable development.

The fate of Palestinians who fled to Egypt is catching the attention of the global press

Egypt is safe, but it’s not home, Palestinian refugees that have recently fled Gaza tell the New York Times in a long-form piece looking at the struggles they face in Cairo. Many of the c.100k Gazans that have successfully crossed the border into Egypt are unable to obtain residency papers after their tourist visa expires and unable to register as refugees with the UN. This legal limbo means that Gazans are unable to open bank accounts, start business, send their children to public schools, or even apply for a visa to another country.

A new terminal is underway at Egypt’s Sokhna Port

LOGISTICS-

EDECS kicks off work on Sokhna Port terminal: Construction firm EDECS has laid the foundation stone for the new container terminal at the Ain Sokhna Port, expected to be completed and fully operational within 18 months, the company said in a press release (pdf).

Remember: A consortium of private-sector companies — Hutchison Ports, Cosco and CMA CGM — last year inked an agreement with the government to construct, manage, and operate the new terminal for 30 years.

TRANSPORT-

Prepare to welcome another ride-hailing app to the market: Emirati taxi booking and cab services app Hala will expand into Egypt under an MoU inked with local mobility solutions provider Mwasala.Tech, according to a press release (pdf). The partnership will see Hala bring its tech to Egypt to help “enhance the travel experience” for customers and look into expanding operations to the new capital and other Egyptian cities. This marks Hala’s first venture abroad and represents the first step in an ambitious regional expansion strategy.

CAPITAL MARKETS-

EGX shares the ins and outs of carbon trading: The EGX has issued the rules for trading carbon certificates and their futures on its website, according to an EGX statement. The Financial Regulatory Authority last year released its carbon credit verification and certification standards and the registration and delisting rules back in March.

Remember: The EGX in 2022 announced it would set up Africa’s first voluntary carbon market. The market will allow companies in Egypt and Africa working on emissions-reducing projects to sell certified carbon credits, which can then be bought by other companies wanting to offset their emissions.

M&A-

That’s a wrap on the Electra-Elsewedy acquisition: Abu Dhabi-based Electra Investment Holding now owns 20% of Elsewedy Electric after the EGX completed the transfer of around 427.7 mn shares to the buyer on Wednesday in a USD 449.1 mn transaction.

Advisors: EFG Hermes was Electra’s sole financial advisor on the transaction, according to a press release (pdf).

ENERGY-

More renewable investments from UAE’s AMEA Power? UAE-based Al Nowais’ AMEA Power is looking to up its investments in Egypt and set up 2.5 GW-worth of solar and wind projects, according to a statement. The company is currently working on 1 GW-worth of renewable projects in Egypt —- 500 MW solar Abydos plant which is set to begin operations by the end of September, as well as a 500 MW wind farm in Ras Ghareb that is lined up for completion mid-2025.

DEBT WATCH-

First Design secures loan for Madinaty expansion: Real estate firm First Design — a joint venture between the National Bank of Egypt and Banque Misr — has secured EGP 5.2 bn in financing from a syndicate of local banks, two unnamed sources told Asharq Business. The funds will allow the firm to develop a 170k-sqm mixed-use project in Madinaty.

A number of banks are in on the action, including NBE, Banque Misr, Banque du Caire, United Bank, EG Bank, and the EBank.

AVIATION-

A whole lot of new EgyptAir routes: The country’s flag carrier EgyptAir launched a number of new routes connecting Cairo with UAE’s Fujairah, the Czech capital Prague, Djibouti, and Somalia's Mogadishu.

Even more to come: The new routes come as EgyptAir aims to increase the number of weekly flights to African countries from 109 currently to 276 by 2028. The new flights will see EgyptAir expand its footprint to cover 30 African countries from 24 currently.

Emerging markets recover from post-pandemic lows despite higher interest rates

EMs show resilience in face of rising interest rates, stronger USD: Net capital inflows into emerging markets excluding China rose to USD 110 bn, or 0.6% of GDP in 2023, their highest level since 2018, the International Monetary Fund said in a blog post. The recovery from post-pandemic lows comes despite monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve and a stronger greenback.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

The breakdown: EM saw a decline in more volatile net portfolio inflows, but net inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) remained resilient, the IMF said. The Washington-based lender partly attributed EM resilience to “stronger fundamentals. … Indeed, many countries are now benefiting from more robust fiscal, monetary, and financial policy frameworks, as well as more effective implementation of policies and tools,” it said.

Negatives for China: China saw net capital outflows, including net FDI outflows over 2022-2023, the IMF said. “Some of this may reflect multinational firms repatriating earnings. But it may also reflect shifting expectations about Chinese growth and geoeconomic fragmentation,” the IMF said.

Zooming out:

Global gross inflows fell to USD 4.4 trn (or 4.4%) of the world’s GDP during 2022-2023, down from USD 4.5 trn (or 5.8%) of global GDP in 2017-2019, according to the IMF.
The US saw its share of global gross inflows almost double to 41% during 2022-2023 from 23% in 2017-2019. Its share of global gross outflows also increased to 21% from 14%.

ALSO- A breather for Islamabad: The IMF reached a staff-level agreement with Pakistan on a USD 7 bn loan for the cash-strapped South Asian country, according to an IMF statement. The 37-month extended fund facility will still need to be signed off by the fund’s executive board (usually a formality) before the funds are disbursed. The facility comes as Pakistan struggles to meet some USD 24 bn in loan repayments due this fiscal year, according to Bloomberg.

EGX30	28,288	-0.6% (YTD: +13.6%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 47.95	Sell 48.08
USD (CIB)	Buy 47.95	Sell 48.05
Interest rates (CBE)	27.25% deposit	28.25% lending
Tadawul	11,792	+0.1% (YTD: -1.5%)
ADX	9,143	-0.1% (YTD: -4.5%)
DFM	4,104	+0.3% (YTD: +1.1%)
S&P 500	5,615	+0.6% (YTD: +17.7%)
FTSE 100	8,253	+0.4% (YTD: +6.7%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,043	+1.3% (YTD: +11.5%)
Brent crude	USD 85.03	-0.4%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.33	+2.7%
Gold	USD 2,420.70	-0.1%
BTC	USD 58,655	+1.8% (YTD: +38.8%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 0.6% at Thursday’s close on turnover of EGP 3.3 bn (22.2% below the 90-day average). Regional investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 13.6% YTD.

In the green: Beltone Holding (+4.1%), Oriental Weavers (+2.4%), and Egypt Kuwait Holding (+1.7%).

In the red: Ezz Steel (-5.1%), GB Corp (-4.0%), and E-finance (-2.9%).

CALENDAR

2024

JULY

9-18 July: Act Financial IPO subscription period for institutional investors.

9-23 July: Act Financial IPO subscription period for retail investors.

16-17 July (Tuesday-Wednesday): The Egypt Mining Forum, Cairo, Egypt.

18 July (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

23 July (Tuesday): Revolution Day (national holiday).

AUGUST

4-5 August (Monday-Tuesday): Egypt Expat Forum.

SEPTEMBER

3-5 September (Tuesday-Thursday): Egypt International Airshow, El Alamein International Airport.

5 September (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

15 September (Sunday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

25-26 September (Wednesday-Thursday): The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank’s (AIIB) 2024 annual meeting, Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

OCTOBER

6 October (Sunday): Armed Forces Day.

17 October (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

13-17 October (Sunday-Thursday): Cairo Water Week, Water and Climate: Building Resilient Communities, Cairo, Egypt.

21-27 October (Monday-Sunday): The World Bank and IMF annual meetings.

30 September (Monday): Ban on sugar exports expiration.

NOVEMBER

4-8 November (Monday-Friday): World Urban Forum, Cairo, Egypt.

21 November (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

26-28 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Egypt Energy Show, Cairo, Egypt.

DECEMBER

26 December (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

June 2024: Gov’t expects to finalize sale of Beni Suef combined-cycle power plant.

1H 2024: Gov’t expects to finalize sale of four water desalination plants.

2H 2024: Gov’t to launch the Cairo Ring Road BRT buses.

3Q 2024: Egyptian-Armenian Joint Committee.

November 2024: Egypt to host the World Urban Forum (WUF12).

End of 2024: The launch of the high-speed train line linking Ain Sokhna with Al Alamein City.

End of 2024: Shalateen Mining Company to launch a gold exploration tender in the Eastern Desert.

2025

July 2025: The first operational trail of Egypt-KSA electricity interconnection line.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2Q 2025: Safaga Terminal 2 to start operations.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

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