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IDA asks parliament for EGP 21 bn lifeline

1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

InstaPay, Fawry in line for VAT exemptions

Good morning, wonderful people and happy hump day. We have a meaty, debate-driven issue today, leading with news that the Industrial Development Authority (IDA) is asking parliament for an EGP 21 bn lifeline to service 17 industrial zones, but lawmakers are pushing back and demanding the authority self-finance instead.

And something to cautiously watch, S&P DJI has launched a consultation to potentially demote Egyptian equities to frontier market status over lingering market accessibility concerns.

… and something to optimistically watch, the local investment fund industry surged 30% in a single quarter to hit EGP 411 bn — and retail investors ask for regulated, lower-ticket exposure to cash, gold, and real estate.

***

WISH THIS MORNING’S ISSUE was a podcast? We’ve got you. Tap or click here to listen to Morning Drive, a 10-minute version of today’s issue crafted for you to enjoy with your morning coffee, while getting the kids ready for school, or while stomping around the house wondering where the [redacted] you left your [redacted] reading glasses.

***

Widening the net

InstaPay, Fawry, and a number of other banking and non-banking finance services and investment funds are set to receive value-added tax (VAT) exemptions under the second tax facilitation package. The package is now heading to the House for approval, according to a newly approved Cabinet draft law seen by EnterpriseAM. The package would also make leased administrative units subject to VAT at the standard rate — deductible as a business cost — except for educational, social, and health facilities.

That’s the backdrop to a strong tax revenue print: Receipts rose 29.3% y-o-y to EGP 2.2 tn in the first 10 months of the fiscal year (July–April), driven by a sharp expansion of the corporate tax base and inflation-boosted consumption, according to the Finance Ministry’s monthly financial performance report (pdf).

The drivers: While VAT remains the largest overall contributor to state coffers (bringing in EGP 907 bn — up 22.7% y-o-y), income tax receipts drove the actual increase in revenues, rising by EGP 242.3 bn to reach EGP 818.5 bn. Corporate income tax collections jumped 45.6% y-o-y to EGP 453.1 bn, while revenues from taxes on treasury bills and bonds rose 20.6% to EGP 316.6 bn. The increase was driven by bringing more of the informal economy into the tax net and using advanced data analytics to slash tax leakages, a government official tells EnterpriseAM.

Why it matters: Tax revenues fund roughly 80% of next year’s budget and are the backbone of the country’s fiscal consolidation. The strong performance helped narrow the overall deficit to 5.3% of GDP in 10M FY 2025/26, down from 6.2% a year earlier.

BUT- Debt servicing is devouring the tax gains. Despite the record collections, interest payments reached a staggering EGP 2.02 tn during the same period, nearly wiping out the tax revenues generated. To help bridge the widening expenditure gap, the government relied heavily on exceptional non-tax revenues, including a massive EGP 166.8 bn injection from the Alam El Roum project.

What’s next: The Finance Ministry plans to raise its tax revenue target to EGP 3.5 tn in the next fiscal year, up from EGP 2.7 tn in the current one. A third package of tax facilitation measures is also being prepared, to be followed by a stricter tax enforcement package targeting non-compliant taxpayers, according to a government document reviewed by EnterpriseAM.

Grain ambitions

The Supply Ministry is in technical talks with Russian agricultural firms to establish a grain storage and distribution hub in the Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone), Supply Minister Sherif Farouk told Hapi, adding that a Russian firm has already dispatched a technical delegation to evaluate one of the ministry’s logistics zones, with feasibility studies on potential sites still underway.

The talks are the latest move in a playbook the Madbouly government has been running with Russia, Ukraine, and Brazil — positioning Egyptian ports as a regional food supply-chain hub for the Middle East and Africa. The ambition is real, but so are the headwinds: as we examined yesterday, grain storage and re-export is an ultra-low-margin, freight-sensitive business. Experts say processing capacity and value-added exports may be the more compelling play.

Data point

7% — that’s how much net foreign assets increased m-o-m in April. The figure jumped to USD 22.9 bn, resuming its upward trajectory following a dip in March, according to CBE data (pdf). Assets contracted 22% m-o-m in March, breaking a nearly two-year appreciation streak due to capital outflows triggered by the war. The quick recovery signals that the initial geopolitical shock is fading, reviving expectations that the banking sector can move closer to the USD 29.5 bn peak seen in January.

PSA

WEATHER- It’s another warm day in Cairo, with a high of 36°C and a low of 24°C, according to our favorite weather app. Expect the mercury to remain around 37°C for the rest of the week.

It’s only a bit cooler in Alexandria, with a high of 30°C and a low of 22°C.


Earning well is not the same as investing well — and for most mid-level executives and entrepreneurs, the gap between the two is wider than they’d like to admit. The financial landscape has shifted. Regional markets are opening up, AI is rewriting how portfolios get managed, and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) are entering the conversation.

And the questions that used to feel straightforward — buy or rent, fund the startup or play it safe, finance the car now or wait it out — are harder to answer than ever.

In Issue 2 of EnterpriseAM Money Matters, we get into the decisions that don’t have easy answers, because at this stage, playing it safe is the riskiest move you can make.

Tap or click here to subscribe to the Egypt edition, delivered to your inbox today, 11 AM Egypt.


The big story abroad

No single story is dominating the global front pages this morning — but among the stories making headlines:

#1- SpaceX will reportedly raise USD 75 bn in its highly anticipated IPO, selling 555.6 mn shares at USD 135 a pop, unnamed sources told Reuters. These figures put the firm’s valuation at USD 1.75 tn.

#2- Microsoft launched its own AI offerings at its Build conference to compete with proprietary models, including coding assistants and reasoning models, which would lower costs and reliance on OpenAI products. The tech giant also unveiled Project Solara, a family of prototype devices designed to host AI agents that carry out complex tasks autonomously.

#3- Investors seem bullish and unafraid: Concerns over inflation and elevated asset prices are trumped by optimistic sentiments, as financial markets currently exhibit “more greed than there is fear,” Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said. He added that so long as investors remain bullish, there is ample liquidity to absorb massive upcoming IPOs from companies like SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI.

#4- The UN General Assembly has elected its next head. Bangladeshi Foreign Minister Khalilur Rahman narrowly defeated Cyprus’ Andreas Kakouris to secure the presidency of the UN General Assembly.

AND- The latest war updates: Iran launched fresh attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain last night — some failed en route and others were intercepted. In response, US forces launched “self-defense” strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island.

*** It’s Hardhat day — your weekly briefing of all things infrastructure in Egypt: EnterpriseAM’s industry vertical focuses each Wednesday on infrastructure, covering everything from energy, water, transportation, and urban development, as well as social infrastructure such as health and education.

In today’s issue: We look at why our construction sector is surviving on paper but bleeding in practice — and what the industry is doing to hold on until the FDI-driven recovery arrives.

Where the grass court season begins.

From 8-14 June 2026, Somabay will host one of the region’s first professional grass court tournaments as part of the ITF World Tennis Tour, welcoming international players to the Red Sea for a week of world-class competition.

Set within the Soma Sports Arena, the tournament reflects Somabay’s continued rise as a leading destination for global sports events.

2

Industry

The EGP 21 bn question

The Industrial Development Authority (IDA) is asking parliament for EGP 21 bn over the next three years to complete infrastructure across 17 industrial zones — and lawmakers want to know why the authority isn’t self-financing. IDA Chairperson Nahed Youssef presented the request during parliamentary budget discussions, with the funding to be channeled through the Industrial Zones Support Fund. The request comes weeks after five new zones were transferred to the IDA’s jurisdiction, deepening pressure on the government to expand the supply of investment-ready land.

Parliamentary pushback: House Industry Committee Chairman Ahmed Bahaa Shalaby argued the industrial sector has the resources to self-finance and should maximize its own revenues instead of leaning on the state budget.

The IDA’s defense is structural: Vice Chairman Ahmed Abdel Raouf countered that the Industrial Zones Support Fund hasn’t received direct Finance Ministry funding since 2013, leaving the authority to rely on its own surpluses to cover infrastructure works that local administrations failed to complete in areas like Beni Suef and Giza.

The deeper point is that the IDA’s financial model is fundamentally different from agencies like the New Urban Communities Authority (NUCA). The state intentionally subsidises industrial plots and offers flexible installment and usufruct plans to slash factory setup costs and attract capital. Because the IDA doesn’t sell land at market value like NUCA, it doesn’t generate massive revenues — and whatever proceeds it does collect are absorbed by existing infrastructure and zone-management costs, leaving it dependent on public funding to service new areas.

Access to serviced land remains a major hurdle: Securing serviced land is among the top obstacles for investors, the latest World Bank Enterprise Survey found, with companies waiting an average of 89 days for new electricity connections and 86 days for construction permits — significantly behind regional and lower-middle-income peers. The delays drive up upfront costs and tie up capital long before operations begin.

The supply-versus-pricing gap is now visible in transactions: The government offered nearly 6.5k industrial plots in 2025 across 23 governorates, but inadequate utility readiness has constrained their conversion into functioning factories. The constrained supply has produced striking pricing distortions: in 10th of Ramadan City, land has reached EGP 30k per sqm in some transactions, against the official EGP 6k rate.

The unserviced land proposal the government has rejected: Federation of Egyptian Industries board member Mohamed El Bahy tells EnterpriseAM the government has turned down proposals to offer unserviced land at lower prices for investors to develop themselves — a model that could reduce upfront costs and expand the available supply substantially. The government’s insistence on fully servicing zones before offering plots has severely limited supply and intensified competition. An industry source tells us they were left empty-handed in the last two allocation rounds, while many zones in Upper Egypt remain unequipped with the utilities needed to attract capital.

A new IDA offering

IDA announced its 14th plot offering through the Egypt Digital Industrial Platform yesterday — 400 newly serviced plots totalling 900k sqm across 24 industrial zones in 15 governorates, with applications opening today and running through to 11 June. Plot sizes range from 300 sqm to 22k sqm, calibrated for small, medium, and large manufacturers across food, engineering, chemicals, pharma, textiles, and building materials.

The offering comes with reduced application fees, a waived financial guarantee, and a smaller reservation deposit, all geared to lower the upfront costs that the Federation of Egyptian Industries has flagged as blocking investors. It’s the first IDA offering to specify target products plot-by-plot within each industrial activity, aimed at localizing feeder industries to secure supply chains and bridge import gaps, Youssef says.

Key developments to watch include Parliament's decision on the EGP 21 bn request, the 29 June allocation results from the 400-plot offering — which will tell us how strong demand actually is for serviced industrial land — and whether the unserviced-land proposal gets revisited as supply pressure intensifies. The 10th of Ramadan EGP 6k-vs-EGP 30k pricing gap is the clearest signal of how constrained the supply has become.

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Capital markets

Losing the emerging edge

Egyptian equities could lose their emerging market label in one of the world's most widely followed equity index families. S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) launched a consultation on demoting Egypt to frontier market status, citing lingering concerns around market accessibility, capital mobility, and broader institutional stability, per its 2026 Equity Country Classification Consultation (pdf). The consultation remains open until 17 July. S&P DJI will review market feedback before reaching a final decision, likely later this year.

IN CONTEXT- This comes a little over three months after the EGX cleared FTSE Russell’s annual review, retaining its Secondary Emerging market status and remaining above the minimum company threshold required for inclusion. FTSE had added Egypt to a watchlist for possible demotion back in 2023 amid reports of foreign investors having difficulties repatriating capital.

If adopted, the change would take effect during the September 2027 index reconstitution, moving Egypt out of the same basket as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and India and into the Frontier universe alongside Morocco, Pakistan, and Vietnam.

Should investors care? Probably — though not necessarily because of the immediate flow impact. Egypt currently represents just 0.12% of the S&P Emerging BMI, limiting the scale of any forced selling from passive Emerging market funds. If reclassified, Egypt would account for around 3.4% of the Frontier BMI, a far more meaningful presence within a smaller benchmark. The bigger issue is perception. Being placed under consultation for a downgrade sends a message that extends well beyond index trackers — the same global investors, rating agencies, and development institutions following Egypt's reform story also pay attention to benchmark classifications.

Foreign investors have already been pulling back from local equities, with liquidity rotating toward debt markets instead, macro analyst Rania Yacoub told Al Masry Al Youm. A reclassification, she added, would trigger a readjustment in the liquidity ratios of global investment funds, though she expects the market to recover over the longer term once the cycle turns.

The consultation lands squarely in the middle of efforts to deepen and modernize the EGX. The bourse has been pushing ahead with structural upgrades, including an already- live derivatives market, with short-selling and market maker mechanisms still in the pipeline — measures that former EGX boss Islam Azzam previously said would help strengthen the market's quantitative metrics and move it closer to FTSE Russell's developed-market requirements. That is alongside an active government IPO program, with Banque Du Caire, Misr Life Ins., other state-backed IPO hopefuls, and oil-related assets expected to hit the floor later this year.

What’s next: “I believe the discussions between the stock exchange management, those responsible for the index committee, the Egyptian stock market indices, with Dow Jones and S&P might yield more clarifications,” Chairman of the Egyptian Capital Market Association Mohamed Maher told Arabic press (watch, runtime 4:27).

4

Investment Watch

Old savings, new wrapper

Our investment fund industry has become a EGP 411 bn parallel route for household savings by the end of 1Q 2026, up 30% in a single quarter and increasingly used by retail investors who previously parked money in physical gold, real estate units, or bank deposits. The shift isn’t replacing the deposit base — fund total Net Asset Value (NAV) sits at roughly 3% of bank deposit levels — but rather opening a regulated, lower-ticket channel for households to gain exposure to the very asset classes they’ve long preferred, the Financial Regulatory Authority's latest report (pdf) shows. The number of funds rose to 187 from 172, while the number of certificates jumped 54.7% q-o-q to 31.4 bn.

This is Egypt’s old savings playbook in a lower-ticket wrapper. Households that have long used physical gold and real estate units to preserve value are now being offered regulated products that mimic that exposure without the same entry ticket. “Funds have become very accessible from everywhere. It is a sign of rising investor awareness, wider use of fintech, and a much higher level of trust in the investment fund product,” Azimut Egypt Managing Director Ahmed Abou El Saad tells EnterpriseAM. Macro analyst Rania Yacoub agrees that this is a retail access story, telling us that “this clearly showed up in the rise in the number of coded investors on the EGX,” which climbed by 215% y-o-y during the first quarter of the year, according to FRA Head Islam Azzam. The NBFI sector “was able to attract investors — and not only investors who used to invest through banks, but new segments of citizens,” Yacoub tells us.

Behind the bns

The scale check still favours the banks. Fund NAV at EGP 411 bn sits against bank deposits at roughly EGP 13-14 tn before end-2025, macro expert Moustafa Badra tells EnterpriseAM — funds are now a parallel channel, not a substitute. “Let's separate the two, because this has its customer and that has its customer,” Badra says. “Despite the major expansion in funds and their ability to attract large investments and money, the entrenched base for many investors is still certificates and bank deposits.” Abou El Saad makes the same point: CDs still work for savers who depend on fixed income to meet living expenses, while funds give more flexible investors a different tool. “[CDs] have their people, but for people for whom certificates were not the right product, funds created another option,” he tells us.

Money is not waiting to rotate — it has a job. Money market funds dominate the industry, holding EGP 276.3 bn in NAV at end-March (67% of the market) and accounting for 54.1% of all fund certificates. They delivered an average 4.44% return in 1Q, with the best-performing money market funds coming in above that average: Iskan Ins.’s Kol Youm returned 6.37% in 1Q after delivering 24.7% in 2025, while Basata Cash returned 5.22% and Wethaq 5.20%. That concentration isn't a warning sign. “Most citizens investing in money market funds are doing it because they want to preserve the value of their money, earn the highest possible return, and still be able to withdraw that liquidity at any time to face daily needs,” Jacoub says. Abou El Saad is more direct: “If you look at the structure of investment funds in any country in the world, you will find it very close to these numbers. Money market funds usually make up 60-80% of any fund market globally.”

The smaller-ticket safe haven

Precious metals funds were the quarter’s clear performance winner, delivering an average 20.37% return in 1Q. Their NAV nearly doubled to EGP 10.1 bn from EGP 5.2 bn at the end of 2025, but they still account for just 2.5% of total fund NAV — making this a fast-growing corner of the market but not the center of gravity. The top performers came in slightly above the category average: Beltone Evolve’s Sabaek returned some 21.7% in 1Q after delivering 52.4% in 2025, while Al Ahly Evolve’s Dahab returned 21.41% after 50.4% annual gains in 2025.

The structural reason gold funds work: physical gold has become expensive at the entry point. Al Mal reports that making charges (masna’ya) average EGP 350-400 per gram for local jewelry and EGP 800-1k per gram for imported pieces — while the official tax-accounting averages for gold workmanship will also rise 10% from July. “Most investors in these funds are more nimble investors who do not have large liquidity pools, so precious metals funds gave them what they were looking for: the ability to invest small amounts periodically,” Yacoub tells us. Abou El Saad cautions that the structure shouldn't be confused for a trading vehicle: “People understand that gold is a long-term thing, not something you trade. 1Q saw a very strong inflationary surge, and that cooled in 2Q with the decline in gold prices. It has cooled, but people are still net buyers in 2Q — just at a much lower rate.”

Equities are growing, but cash still sets the market’s shape. Equity funds are the largest category by number of funds, with 62 funds at the end of March and the second-largest by NAV at EGP 56.4 bn — around 13.7% of the market. Equity funds NAV grew 29.3% q-o-q, broadly in line with the industry’s headline growth, while average 1Q returns came in at 4.18%. Index funds performed better, returning 7.54%, but remain tiny at just EGP 243.7 mn in NAV.

That does not mean the EGX rally is failing to show up in funds. “A year ago, we were talking about all equity funds being around EGP 10-11 bn — look at where we are now,” Abou El Saad tells us. “The biggest reflection of that growth came from the FRA’s new rules requiring private ins. funds and ins. companies to hold minimum investments in equity funds.” Yacoub says the return picture also depends on timing and benchmarks, noting that “the real jump in the EGX30 happened in the final quarter of the year, and that was reflected in equity funds,” while some index and shariah-compliant products saw stronger moves tied to their underlying stocks.

The next test

Real estate wants the gold-fund playbook. Real estate funds posted the sharpest NAV jump in the report, rising to EGP 8.98 bn from EGP 923.7 mn at the end of 2025. But this is still early-stage: real estate funds account for just 2.2% of total fund NAV and 0.32% of all fund certificates, with the jump driven largely by one large new vehicle rather than a broad retail breakout. “Real estate funds will represent a good opportunity to organize Egypt’s real estate sector and its pricing,” Yacoub tells us. “Once this product gets its chance in marketing, it will attract a very large segment of investors, like what happened with gold.”

The next test is fractional property. Abou El Saad says the next wave is about turning real estate into a smaller-ticket investment product. “The funds we are going to launch are the ones that let people invest in real estate with EGP 5k — this is where the fractional real estate idea comes in,” he tells us. Platforms including Partment and Nawy Shares’ FRA-regulated fractional ownership model are already moving in that direction. “If we succeed in real estate, real estate will be the king of the coming period,” Abou El Saad says.

Real estate is where the regulatory framework matters most. The asset class has historically been the one most susceptible to informal arrangements, valuation disputes, and the dual-pricing problem that’s now visible in industrial land. Badra makes the regulatory point explicitly: “As long as there is a regulatory framework — investment funds, regulated investment companies, regulated finance companies — that gives society confidence. For me, as long as this is under the state's umbrella, under the state’s eyes, and under regulatory oversight, it is reassuring.” Whether the access thesis extends to assets above the gold-fund ticket size — and whether the FRA’s regulatory wrapper holds up to the test — will be clearer in the next four to six quarters.

5

EARNINGS WATCH

Madinet Masr's bottom line dips 14% to EGP 682.5 mn in 1Q 2026

Madinet Masr’s bottom line dipped 14.1% y-o-y to EGP 682.5 mn in 1Q 2026, hampered by a flurry of lower-margin unit handovers, according to an earnings release (pdf). However, the top line grew 7.4% y-o-y to EGP 2.8 bn as the developer ramped up construction, driving a staggering 256.7% increase in deliveries to hit 831 units.

New sales cooled 7.0% y-o-y to EGP 11.7 bn as the broader real estate market caught its breath. Even though the developer sold more homes — volumes jumped 59.0% to 1.5k units — average selling prices dropped as buyers gravitated toward an affordable housing project outside East Cairo, the company’s IR department tells EnterpriseAM. Routine contract terminations also drove EGP 264.1 mn in revenue reversals, though strong collections improved the delinquency rate to 1.0% from 1.6% a year earlier.

A first-ever dividend: Madinet Masr distributed its first-ever stock dividend of 4.2% in March, alongside a banknote payout. Robust collections also helped the developer close the quarter with EGP 380.1 mn in net liquidity, reversing an EGP 329.2 mn net debt position at the end of 2025.

The company has also recently launched several subsidiaries, which it described as “vertically expanding our services ecosystem around our core industry development business.” The brokerage arm, Doors, aims to expand sales and brokerage reach, while finishing-services provider, Finishing Solutions, supports customers post-handover. Additionally, the fractional investment platform SAFE is geared to expand monetization prospects across the customer lifecycle and diversify revenue streams.

6

Moves

CEO out, founder in

Emaar Misr CEO Mostafa El Kady was terminated on May 25, according to an EGX disclosure (pdf) , with group founder Mohamed Alabbar (LinkedIn) stepping in to run Egyptian operations. Alabbar will exercise “direct and full oversight of the company’s business operations and affairs,” Emaar Misr said In a separate disclosure (pdf), with board member Mohamed Eid re-designated from non-executive to executive director to support him in the expanded capacity (pdf). The company disclosed that it has not appointed a new CEO.

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Also on our Radar

Fueling summer

More LNG coming our way: Egypt is tapping global markets for another six liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments this month, bringing its total June deliveries to 28, Al Arabiya reports, citing unnamed government officials. The move aims to offset a supply shortfall from maintenance shutdowns at Israeli gas fields and shore up reserves ahead of heightened summer demand.

BACKGROUND- The government is looking to secure 130 LNG shipments starting June to ensure we see no blackouts this summer. A big chunk of our LNG imports come from the US, Trinidad and Tobago, Mauritania, and Nigeria — we were the topdestination for US LNG cargoes last month, securing 16 of the 153 cargoes delivered throughout the month.

How much gas are we talking about? According to initial estimates, May’s LNG shipments cover 23-26% of local demand (around 1.5-1.7 bcf / d), while June’s planned cargoes should provide close to 2 bcf / d. To put things in perspective, Egypt imported nearly 2.35 bcf / d of natural gas in 1Q, accounting for 38% of the country’s total available gas supply. As summer consumption edges toward 7 bcf / d, imports are set to play an even larger role, covering nearly 45% of peak consumption.

Wanna go deeper? We unpacked the country’s gas balance sheet over the last three years earlier this week.

Sohag is getting a new public freezone

Sohag is set to house a new public freezone after securing preliminary approval from the General Authority for Investment and Freezones (Gafi), Sohag Investors Association Chairman Mahmoud El Shendweily told Al Borsa. The zone aims to funnel fresh capital into Upper Egypt and scale up industrial exports by leveraging the governorate’s direct access to Red Sea shipping hubs. However, the final rollout hinges on overhauling the area's aging infrastructure to set up dedicated power, water, and natural gas networks.

The cost question is still hanging over investors. Manufacturers are pushing for the return of tax breaks, relief on overdue social ins. payments, and lower industrial land prices, El Shendweily said. He claimed land prices jumped from EGP 200 to EGP 1.1k per sqm — a figure still lower than the EGP 1.9k per sqm we reported last year but enough to echo the broader manufacturer backlash over surging land costs slowing new investment.

IN CONTEXT- The Sohag project aligns with a broader state drive to launch four new public freezones by the end of the year. As Egypt’s nine existing zones hit 95% capacity, Gafi plans to launch four new freezones in 10th of Ramadan, New October, New Borg El Arab, and New Alamein.

8

PLANET FINANCE

Muted AI exposure and war spell trouble for Indian equities as AI shakeout puts other EMs ahead

Foreign investment in Indian equities hit its lowest level in nearly ten years, with Bloomberg reporting that overseas holdings dipped to INR 7.3 tn at the start of June. The slide marks a sharp reversal for a market that spent years as one of the standout destinations in emerging markets, drawing investors in with its strong GDP growth, expanding middle class, and young demographic dividend. Two converging forces are now driving the retreat.

The US-Iran conflict has rattled global investor sentiment, but India is absorbing the shock more acutely than most. As the world's third-largest oil importer, India is directly exposed to the elevated oil prices triggered by the conflict. Higher energy costs feed quickly into inflation, widen the current account deficit, and put downward pressure on the INR, which has already fallen from around INR 90 to beyond INR 95 against the USD.

The resulting risk-off sentiment has accelerated foreign outflows that were already underway: India recorded USD 17 bn in outflows by late 2025 as US tariff pressures and weaker global sentiment began to bite, with overseas ownership of NSE-listed firms falling to under 17% — around a 15-year low.

The second headwind is structural and longer-term, but investors are pricing it in now. India's economic model has long relied on a large, skilled, English-speaking workforce to power its services and outsourcing sectors — but that is precisely the category of labour most exposed to automation in the current AI cycle. That could threaten a core pillar of India’s GDP, and — unlike Taiwan or South Korea — India has a limited presence in the semiconductor and AI infrastructure supply chains that stand to benefit most from the current technology wave.

Despite the foreign exodus, there’s still been activity. The IPO market closed 2025 with a record USD 22 bn raised across more than 200 approved listings. The caveat: 75% of allocations were absorbed by domestic institutions and retail investors.

Who's picking up India's slack? The capital rotating out of India is, in part, finding a home in markets better positioned for the AI era. Taiwan and South Korea both have deep semiconductor and AI infrastructure exposure that India lacks. Taiwan has been climbing toward India's spot as the fifth-largest global equity market by capitalization — driven largely by TSMC, which climbed more than 25% in April alone. South Korea's Kospi has recently hit a record high.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Japan’s Nikkei hit record highs in early trading, echoing gains felt across Wall Street. The benchmark is up over 2% this morning with gains across automakers and tech stocks fueling the rally. The Shanghai Composite is looking at more modest gains, while the Hang Seng is in the red, down 1.2%.

EGX30

52,927

+0.1% (YTD: +26.5%)

USD (CBE)

Buy 51.80

Sell 51.94

USD (CIB)

Buy 51.80

Sell 51.90

Interest rates (CBE)

19.00% deposit

20.00% lending

Tadawul

11,016

+0.1% (YTD: +5.0%)

ADX

9,621

-0.3% (YTD: -3.7%)

DFM

5,732

-0.7% (YTD: -5.2%)

S&P 500

7,610

+0.1% (YTD: +11.2%)

FTSE 100

10,374

+0.3% (YTD: +4.5%)

Euro Stoxx 50

6,108

+1.2% (YTD: +5.4%)

Brent crude

USD 96.00

+1.1%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 3.17

+0.2%

Gold

USD 4,492

-0.6%

BTC

USD 67,302

-5.8% (YTD: -23.2%)

S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index

1,051

-0.1% (YTD: +5.8%)

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk

151.63

-0.4% (YTD: -0.2%)

VIX (Volatility Index)

15.77

-1.7% (YTD: +5.5%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 0.1% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 10.4bn (28.5% above the 90-day average). International investors were the sole net sellers. The index is up 26.5% YTD.

In the green: Oriental Weavers (+3.2%), Kima (+3.2%), and Ibnsina Pharma (+1.8%).

In the red: Palm Hills Developments (-2.6%), Orascom Development (-2.3%), and Abu Qir Fertilizers (-2.1%).

9

HARDHAT

The mid-tier crunch

Egypt’s construction sector is in the hardest stretch of its expected contraction, and the central question for the industry now isn’t whether the recovery will come. Despite closing FY 2025/26 with near-zero real growth, Fitch Solutions sees real growth jumping to 4.9% in FY 2026/27 on the back of Gulf FDI inflows into megaprojects like Ras El Hekma. Big industry players tell EnterpriseAM that the nominal contract values currently on the books are masking a deep liquidity squeeze and margin erosion that could push smaller firms into bankruptcy before private investment lands in their accounts.

The market has split into two tracks. Large contractors have shielded themselves by exporting work and reducing exposure to the local market. Orascom Construction’s FY 2025 results showed a record USD 9.0 bn backlog — growth that did not come from Egypt but from geographic diversification. Its US backlog jumped 80.6% to USD 2.89 bn, driven by data center and aviation projects, while its MENA and Africa backlog rose on major projects in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Second- and third-tier contractors are on the other side of the trade. “We are selling assets and land to stay in the market,” Egyptian Federation for Construction & Building Contractors (EFCBC) board member Shams El Din Youssef tells EnterpriseAM. “Some second- and third-tier companies — and even first-tier firms that did not hedge — have already gone bankrupt.”

The books may still show revenues flowing, but on the ground, contractors are dealing with a liquidity crunch and sharp margin erosion. Current contract values are misleading, Youssef says. “The contract value for all contractors in Egypt is a nominal value — when I add variable cost items and price differences, the value doubles.” In one government contract, asphalt costs rose from EGP 100 per sqm at signing to EGP 350 today, he tells us. State compensation covers only 60-70% of contractors’ actual losses, leaving companies to bear losses they are neither obligated nor able to carry.

Imports make the squeeze structurally worse. “No less than 40-50% of project money goes to supplies, equipment, or electromechanical works imported from abroad in foreign currency,” EFCBC Head Mohamed Sami Saad tells us. The sector’s reliance on imported inputs means external shocks — FX volatility, regional supply disruptions — hit ongoing projects directly rather than working through over months.

The macro picture

The macro picture confirms what contractors are reporting. Fitch cut its real growth forecast for the sector to 0.4% in FY 2025/26 from an earlier 5.6% projection. The downgrade is driven by a strategic shift in public spending, with the government redirecting priorities toward debt management in line with IMF program targets — scaling back the public sector's role and creating what Fitch describes as a “visible investment gap.” Construction activity already shrank 0.3% in 1H FY 2025/26, and Fitch warns the difficult operating environment will persist amid high financing costs, building materials inflation, and regional conflict spillovers.

The state has stepped in with emergency measures. The EFCBC formed a crisis committee and requested contract extensions to protect companies from delay penalties and project withdrawals. The government has granted contractors additional time, Saad says. “The government is making every effort to support the sector because it employs a very large workforce and moves a lot of local industries,” he tells us.

Skilled workers are leaving. Beyond the liquidity crunch, the sector is bleeding talent to the Gulf — a migration that’s pushing local wages higher and adding another layer of pressure on developers and contractors, Fitch notes. The local talent drain tracks a wider global construction labour squeeze that the Project Management Institute expects to grow by 2.5 mn project managers by 2035.

How does the sector hold on until recovery?

Shift toward maintenance and operations. “We are advising [contractors] to move from contracting into maintenance and operations,” Saad tells EnterpriseAM. “Construction will slow, but maintenance and operations contracts are sustainable and include large amounts over long periods.” The federation has also begun preparing companies to work under international contract formats ahead of dealing with donors and Gulf and foreign investors — a move that would let domestic contractors plug into the FDI-driven recovery rather than just wait for it to land.

The second push is making construction a real FX earner. Contractors are lobbying for state backing to export their services more aggressively, with Youssef framing the ambition in big terms — he wants Egyptian construction exports to one day rival Suez Canal revenue. The current obstacles are concrete. “I am ready to provide all guarantees, but I cannot get a letter of guarantee to work abroad,” Youssef says. Red tape compounds the problem: “Issuing a work visa for an Egyptian project manager in Iraq costs USD 2.5k — how can I compete?”

For now, contractors don't see the private-sector pipeline as a quick fix. “Developers themselves are not launching many projects right now,” Youssef says, as they feel the impact of weaker government liquidity. The maintenance-and-operations pivot Saad is recommending, and the export-services push the federation is lobbying for, are both medium-term plays. The bridge to FY 2026/27 will have to be walked on what contractors already have on their books.


2026

JUNE

30 June (Tuesday): June 30 Revolution.

JULY

9 July (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fourth meeting of 2026.

23 July (Thursday): Revolution Day (TBC).

AUGUST

20 August (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fifth meeting of 2026.

26 August (Wednesday): Prophet Muhammad’s birthday.

SEPTEMBER

15 September (Tuesday): IMF to hold its eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

24 September (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s sixth meeting of 2026.

27-29 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Global Conference on Population, Health, and Human Development.

OCTOBER

6 October (Tuesday): Armed Forces Day.

29 October (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s seventh meeting of 2026.

DECEMBER

17 December (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s eighth meeting of 2026.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

1Q 2026: Trial operations for the Ain Sokhna-Sixth of October section of Egypt’s first high-speed rail line scheduled to begin.

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments.

July 2026: British Prime Minister Keir Starmer set to visit Egypt.

2H 2026: Operations at Deli Glass Co’s new USD 70 mn glassware factory kick off.

2026: The Egyptian-American Economic Forum.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings.

2027: Egypt-EU Summit 2027.

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

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