Could Vodafone be pressured to sell its Egyptian arm? That’s the suggestion from Bloomberg, which speculates that incoming CEO Nick Read will be looking for ways to cope with “a weak share price [and] a fragile dividend” as it faces a potential “shake-up by US activist investor Elliott Management Corp,” which has reportedly built a stake in the world’s second-largest wireless carrier. Among the options Bloomberg suggests could be on the table: “Selling divisions. Vodafone has assets dotted around the world that Elliott could pressure it to sell. … The group’s South African and Egyptian units contribute to synergies.” Read: Vodafone could be ripe for activist investors, one of the most interesting pieces we’ve read on a very slow newsnight.
The US Federal Reserve left interest rates on hold yesterday, characterizing the US economy as strong in a statement. The Fed left its target federal funds rate range at 1.75-2%. “Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. Household spending and business fixed investment have grown strongly,” the statement read. Analysts still expect the Fed to raise rates twice before the end of the year, according to Reuters.
Goldman Sachs lowers expected 2018 returns for EM assets in mid-year update to its 2018 Outlook: In a once in a blue moon mid-year update to its 2018 Outlook, Goldman Sachs has lowered its expected returns on emerging markets assets in 2018, with the bank recommending a “small strategic allocation to emerging markets.” Nonetheless, the bank has raised its aggregate growth forecast by only 0.2%, driven largely by improved outlooks on China and India —and offset by declines in Russia and Brazil. “Monetary policy remains accommodative across the key countries, and the inflation outlook is benign,” it reads. Earnings in EM companies grew 12%, the report notes, in line with expectations. That said: Growth was concentrated in energy, IT, and materials.
Still, Goldman’s asset management unit now sees EM bonds as some of the more attractive opportunities out there. “The growth story there is still very positive,” Andrew Wilson, the London-based co-head of global fixed income at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. The bank has all but called an end to the EM zombie apocalypse, saying that the plunge had bottomed out in June.
The Goldman report also sees continued volatility in global markets driven by political risks, noting especially the ongoing trade war between the US and China. US equities get a strong buy recommendation at the expense of other developed markets (particularly the Eurozone) and emerging markets.
You can catch the full report here (pdf) or access it through the landing page here.
Speaking of that trade war: The Donald is considering raising tariffs on Chinese imports to 25%. That would more than double the proposed tariffs on some USD 200 bn in annual imports from China, the Financial Times reports.

Qatar is now the top-performing stock market in the GCC: The Qatar Stock Exchange overtook Saudi Arabia as the GCC’s top-performing market, closing yesterday at its highest level since May last year, Reuters reports. The 1.5% jump in the index was led largely by banking stocks, indicating that the Qatari benchmark “has recovered all losses” since Egypt, Saudi, the UAE, and Bahrain decided to boycott the statelet in 2017, according to Bloomberg. “While the standoff shows no sign of ending, pressure on Qatari assets in general has eased.”
More charges brought against Abraaj’s Naqvi over bad cheques: Arif Naqvi, the founder of Dubai-based private equity firm Abraaj, is facing a new set of criminal charges, this time over alleged bad cheques worth c. USD 217.3 mn, according to Reuters. The case, which is set to be heard by a Sharjah court on 14 August, was filed by Hamid Jafar, a founding shareholder of Abraaj who had previously accused Naqvi of issuing bad cheques worth at least USD 48 mn. Abraaj is currently undergoing a court-ordered restructuring and has filed for provisional liquidation.
Other global business headlines you may want to know about:
- Brent crude was down 2% yesterday to USD 72.39 per barrel “as a surprise increase in US crude stockpiles fed concerns about global oversupply,” Reuters reports, noting that prices are also “being pressured by concern that global trade tensions could crimp economic growth.”
- Apple shares still have a way to run before the company becomes the first to hit USD 1 tn in market cap. That’s the takeaway from CNBC, which says an adjusted share count reported yesterday means the company has to hit USD 207.05 per share (not USD 203.45 per) to hit the USD 1 tn threshold. The company’s stock ended trading on Wednesday as USD 201.50 after delivering a strong earnings report thanks in large part to strong iPhone X sales and growth in the sale of services and “other products.”


