Hynfra triples Ras Banas investment

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Are we staying in energy-saving mode?

Good morning, all. It’s only the last week of April, but the scorching sun and return of daylight saving time is making it feel like summer is right around the corner.

Green ammonia is the focus of today’s big story after Polish renewables player Hynfra tripled the initial investment for its Ras Banas green ammonia facility. We also look at what needs to be done to attract more African investments into the country, Onsi Sawiris’ HOF Capital’s latest M&A moves, and the future of energy saving measures.

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Tick, tock on Egypt's energy saving measures

The Crisis Management Committee is reviewing energy saving measures put in place last month — including early closure times for commercial establishments and work-from-home mandates, Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said in a press conference on Thursday. They will announce if the measures will stay in place today or tomorrow, as the mandate expires Monday, 27 April.

“Work-from-home delivered real rationing — not just on electricity, but on traffic too,” Madbouly said, hinting that WFH may be one of the measures most likely to be extended.

REMEMBER– The government saved USD 14.4 mn in a week by forcing early closure of commercial spaces. The measures come on the back of the cost of generating electricity nearly doubled in February and March, hitting EGP 60 bn as global crude prices climbed past USD 100 on the back of the Middle East conflict.

F&B operators spent the past month re-engineering their business models after the measures effectively killed their most profitable hours. Some venues reported losing 80-90% of their revenue — and enforcement has been no joke, including forced closures, fines, and arrests.

USD gains EGP

The USD rebounded against the EGP across Egypt’s major banks over the past week. The greenback’s selling price climbed 1.5% w-o-w at the National Bank of Egypt and Banque Misr to EGP 52.67 by Thursday’s close, while CIB saw a 1.7% advance to settle near EGP 52.7.

The recent uptick in demand for FX has been driven by domestic pressures, a banking source told EnterpriseAM. The Central Bank of Egypt has recently met significant external obligations and there has been an increase in opening letters of credit for essential imports to stabilize supply chains to tamper inflation, the source added. “These dynamics contributed to upward movements in the USD against the EGP during Wednesday and Thursday trading.”

Hot money flows remain strong: Portfolio inflows exceeded USD 4 bn over the past two weeks — USD 1.3 bn up until last Thursday and USD 2.7 bn the week before — as appetite remains strong for government debt instruments, particularly in the secondary market, our source tells us. Standard Chartered estimates the total hot money outflow from the local market at USD 12-15 bn since regional tensions began, before making a recovery and decreasing net outflows to USD 10-12 bn, MENA & Pakistan Head of FX Trading Mazen Barbir told Arabic press.

Recent movements underscore exchange rate flexibility, our source says, noting that interbank market transactions successfully financed around 97% of foreign outflows in March without draining FX reserves.

Every drop counts

The Oil Ministry is ramping up domestic gas production, with Agiba Petroleum investing USD 509 mn in extraction next fiscal year. The move will push Agiba, a EGPC-Eni JV, to achieve a daily production target of 38k bbl/d of oil and 125 mcf/d of natural gas, according to a statement from the Ministry.

IN CONTEXT- The new targets follow a strong current FY, where revised investments hit USD 639 mn. Agiba drilled 18 developmental wells — including the recent Dorra 36 and West Yasmin 3 — which are currently yielding around 1.7k bb/d of oil and 19 mcf/d of gas.

Could we see more global auto players set up shop here?

The government is hoping to reach final agreements with two “major global auto players,” who have made offers to set up shop in Egypt, Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly told reporters during a presser (watch, runtime: 30:03) last week. Madbouly kept the automakers unnamed, but hinted that their plants will have an annual capacity of 100k-200k vehicles each. We’ll be keeping an eye out for any development in these negotiations and official announcements if the talks prove fruitful.

We’ve been seeing some progress on the auto localization front, most recently with Mansour Group’s MAC for Mobility Manufacturing securing funding for a vehicle assembly plant. And we expect to see more progress after the government revamped the Automotive Industry Development Program to slash the initial local component ratio to a highly accessible 20%.

PSA-

WEATHER- We’re back to perfect spring weather in Cairo today, with a high of 27°C and a low of 16°C, according to our favorite weather app. Expect the mercury to remain breezy over the week, with a high of 27-28°C through Friday.

It’s several degrees cooler in Alexandria, with a high of 22°C and a low of 15°C.

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The big story abroad

Shots fired: President Donald Trump was uninjured and quickly escorted out following reports of shots fired at the White House correspondents' dinner, where he was due to speak, the New York Times reports. The story is still developing as we’re hitting send, but the suspect is in custody and no injuries were reported from the attack.

US-Iran peace talks have faced another setback, after Trump canceled a scheduled visit by two envoys to Islamabad yesterday. Trump cited “infighting and confusion” within Tehran’s leadership, suggesting that internal political instability is preventing diplomatic headway. Meanwhile, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had a “fruitful” sitdown with Pakistani officials in Islamabad, and questioned whether Washington is “truly serious about diplomacy,” he said in a social media post.

Sounding the alarm over the alleged theft of US intellectual property, the US State Department has pointed the finger at Chinese firms, including AI startup DeepSeek, according to a diplomatic cable seen by Reuters. Washington alleges that these firms are doing away with security protocols and bias safeguards after seizing the US’ proprietary AI models. The Chinese Embassy in Washington has rejected the accusations as baseless.

More layoffs in the tech world: Tech giants Meta and Microsoft have laid off some 20k jobs late last week, which coincides with the firms’ spending of USD hundreds of bns on their AI infrastructure. This has prompted some economists and industry experts to warn of an AI-related labor shortage, as some estimates place the number of tech workers laid off this year at 92k.

Tripling the ticket

Polish renewables developer Hynfra and local consultancy Coxswains have tripled their initial investment to USD 5 bn for the first phase of their Ras Banas green ammonia facility. The project under the Egypt Amun Green Ammonia JV, had an initial investment ticket of USD 1.6 bn for the phase back in 2024, according to a statement from the Industry Ministry. The plant is now expected to come online in 2031, a year later than the original timeline.

More money, more volume: The higher initial investment tick is set to result in initial annual production volumes 4x the original plan to 400k tons of green ammonia, before rising to some 1 mn tons per year as the project scales toward its full USD 10 bn build out.

Independent energy: To power the plant, the consortium will build a 2 GW renewable energy farm — evenly split between solar and wind — to avoid relying on the national grid. Any surplus electricity generated could potentially be sold back to the national grid at pre-set prices, a government source tells EnterpriseAM. The 100 sq km project will also be supported by a port dedicated to exporting green ammonia.

Why this matters: Unlike many green hydrogen and ammonia projects that seem to be stalled due to low offtake demand, Egypt Amun officials say this project has already inked offtake contracts for buyers in Central and Eastern Europe set to generate some USD 490 mn in annual export revenue.

The gateway to Africa needs to bring Africa to the table

Egypt has built awareness among US companies that it can serve as a gateway to Africa. The next step? Turning awareness into agreements by bringing African governments and business leaders into the room to discuss and identify specific projects, sectors, and opportunities, VP of Middle East Affairs at the US Chamber of Commerce Steve Lutes said during a media roundtable at AmCham Egypt’s Doorknock Mission to Washington, DC EnterpriseAM attended last week.

Location, location, location

“Egypt already has some things built in that you can’t just create, and part of it is geography,” Lutes said, “You can’t move through the Middle East without having Egypt front and center.” With geography and supply chains already working in our favor, companies were already “rethinking supply chains” to ensure “redundancy,” he added.

Africa is where the pitch needs to become actionable, and the gateway narrative needs to be backed by a clearer business case and real pipelines of projects, Lutes said. “I think we haven’t really answered the why,” he noted. This year’s Egypt-US Economic Forum should focus on execution rather than broad messaging, he added, stressing the importance of pairing large sessions with “one-on-one” discussions to understand what this company is looking for.

Widening the zone

Organizers are seeking to designate the forum as a US Department of Commerce Certified Trade Mission to significantly widen the pool of participating companies. The move could “open the door to a lot of companies that haven’t even ever stepped foot in Egypt, or maybe even the Middle East,” particularly firms that “may have never went beyond” their home markets and could use Egypt as a first entry point, Lutes noted.

Which sectors hold the most promise? The Chamber sees strong potential for US companies using Egypt as a base in sectors such as logistics, construction, power, agribusiness, and services, Lutes said. The opportunity lies in linking these sectors to specific projects across African markets rather than presenting them in the abstract, he explained.

Unlocking this opportunity requires more than positioning, including better identification of bankable projects and coordination across stakeholders, Lutes said. The focus should be on “targeted project identification and dynamic, multilateral commercial cooperation, alongside clearer pathways to financing and support tools,” he noted.

What companies are looking for

Companies prioritize predictability, regulatory clarity, and fair competition, Lutes said. They are looking for “a level playing field,” alongside “regulatory consistency” and “clear and enforceable dispute resolution,” with financing tools such as DFC and Ex-Im Bank also needing to be more accessible to “bring more confidence, more clarity,” he explained.

A freetrade agreement is unlikely in the near term, but that should not delay incremental improvements. “Let’s be realistic and know that that’s probably not in the cards anytime soon,” he said.

Strategic asset management: the new competitive frontier for real estate professionals

Egypt’s real estate sector is entering a more demanding phase. Following years of rapid development, long-term asset performance, operational efficiency, and regulatory navigation are becoming central priorities. The question is no longer how fast projects are built, but how effectively existing assets are managed, financed, and optimized.

This is changing the skillset required across the industry. Developers, facility managers, investors, and asset managers are increasingly required to move beyond project delivery toward a more integrated approach spanning urban planning, finance, operations, marketing, and legal frameworks.

To keep pace, professionals need stronger capabilities in data-driven decision-making and sustainable practices. Integrating environmental, social, and governance (ESG) standards is becoming more relevant to attracting capital and supporting long-term resilience. By prioritizing lifecycle value over short-term gains, managers can mitigate risks and maximize returns.

Executive education is adapting to these requirements. The Real Estate Management programs at AUC Onsi Sawiris School of Business Executive Education focus on developing a broader, more strategic perspective across market cycles. Covering development, finance, facility management, marketing, valuation, and regulatory frameworks, the programs provide professionals with a structured understanding of how to navigate a more complex real estate environment.

Egyptians behind the wheel at Bugatti

US-based global VC HOF Capital, co-founded by Onsi Naguib Sawiris, is leading a consortium that has bought out automaker Porsche's complete stake in supercar brand Bugatti, according to a statement (pdf). Abu-Dhabi based investment firm BlueFive Capital as the largest investor in the HOF Capital-led consortium.

What we know: The venture capital firm now holds a 45% share in JV Bugatti Rimac alongside Croatian automotive-focused investment holding company Rimac Group with a 55% share. The size of the investment ticket has been kept confidential, although informed sources told Bloomberg in December the valuation is in USD 1.2 bn territory.

What’s next? After the agreement is given the final rubber stamp after regulatory clearances before the end of the year, “Rimac Group is set to take control of Bugatti Rimac and form a strategic partnership with HOF Capital and BlueFive Capital to support its continued growth,” the statement notes. HOF Capital will also become the largest shareholder in Rimac Group.

About HOF: Founded in 2016 by Hisham Elhaddad, Onsi Sawiris, and Fady Yacoub, the firm has over USD 7 bn in assets under management as of 2026. HOF Capital has a network of over 240 strategic limited partners and a portfolio of household names including OpenAI, SpaceX, Anthropic, and Neuralink.

Cyprus joins the list of strategic partners

President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and his Cypriot counterpart President, Nikos Christodoulides, have upgraded bilateral ties to a strategic partnership. The partnership will formalize cooperation between the two countries across energy, defense, and migration.

But why now? The answer may lie in the Aphrodite and Cronos gas fields. Egypt has increasingly been keen on assigning strategic partner status to countries without openly hostile relations, but recent momentum to get the plan to re-export Cypriot natural gas as LNG from Egyptian terminals back on track may be the reason behind the recent handshake and signature.

AUC greenlights President Ahmad Dallal’s second five-year term

The American University in Cairo’s Board of Trustees voted to grant Ahmad S. Dallal another five-year term as president, according to a statement (pdf) from the university. Dallal has held the role since 2021, and previously served as dean of Georgetown University in Qatar, provost of the American University of Beirut, and taught at Stanford University, Yale University, Smith College, and Georgetown University.

Nassef Sawiris in search of greener, tax-friendlier pastures

Nassef Sawiris’ departure from the UK and the shuttering of the London branch of his private investment firm NNS Group got ink in Bloomberg over the weekend. The OCI Global executive chair and Aston Villa FC majority shareholder’s decision to close the branch follows an earlier decision to move his residency to Italy and Abu Dhabi following changes to the UK’s non-domiciled tax status that had initially made foreign income and gains tax exempt providing it didn’t enter the country.

Sawiris isn’t the only high net worth individual — or Egyptian for that matter — to relocate to more tax-friendly jurisdictions, with Mansour Group and Man Capital Chairman Mohamed Mansour also deciding to end his residency in the country last year. Mansour’s move came despite his prominence in the country that saw him receive a knighthood and serve as the senior treasurer of the Conservative Party.

Up next on the privatization auction block…

Another batch of six state-owned companies received the greenlight to temporarily list on the bourse, according to an announcement from the EGX. Four companies will head to the main market — El Nasr Housing and Development, Sinai Manganese, Spring and Transport Equipment Manufacturing, and the Egyptian Contracting Company (El Abd). And two will join the SME market — National Asset Management & Investment Company and Al Ahly for Investment and Development (Norco).

This is the news we had last week: Head of cabinet’s State-Owned Enterprises Unit, Hashem El Sayed, told us last week that the state’s list of assets earmarked for EGX listing this fiscal year includes companies such as El Nasr Housing and Development, Sinai Manganese, and firms under the construction and tourism holding companies.

It’s the latest move in a wider privatization push that we’ve been told will see a total of 30 state-owned players temporarily listed on the EGX by the end of the current fiscal year. Earlier this month, another six state-owned firms headed to the exchange.

Shifting sentiment

It’s a battle between the greenback and emerging market currencies as the outlook for the war and the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz changes by the hour.

The USD was down by roughly 2.3% against its peers since its late-March peak, losing value against virtually all major currencies bar Japan’s JPY, the Financial Times reports. The EUR has also clawed back nearly all of its losses since the start of the US’s war with Iran, and riskier wagers in emerging markets were also seeing gains at the USD’s expense.

And after regaining some ground on Thursday, the greenback lost ground over the weekend thanks to pressure from two fronts: the Justice Department’s closure of a probe into Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and rising hopes for a resolution to the US-Iran conflict. The USD index, which measures the value of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.28% to 98.55 on Friday.

Heading into the weekend, EM currencies and equities saw a dip as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz persisted and prospects of US-Iran negotiations remain unclear. MSCI's gauge for emerging market currencies shed 0.2%.

What’s happening? Since the conflict began, the greenback has been enjoying a rebound in its safe-haven status, clawing its way back into investors’ favor, while other defensive asset classes like bonds and gold took a hit. However, recent ceasefire negotiations and hopes of an end to the war are sending mixed signals, providing a bit of hope for risky assets but keeping volatility high amid ongoing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.

While “risk sentiment is improving,” as BNY’s Geoffrey Yu noted, the prospect of the Fed cutting interest rates is clouding the USD outlook. A simultaneous likely uptick in European rates on the back of higher energy costs means foreign capital will probably be looking elsewhere to deposit their funds to secure higher yields.

The outlook: The USD is likely to continue to fall until the war ends as increasingly unpredictable US policy pushes investors to roll back their exposure to US assets. Meanwhile, as things stand, Wall Street lenders predict the EUR will rise to USD 1.2 next year, up from USD 1.175 now, while the GBP is also set to inch up.

Conflict duration is the key decider: “The conflict will dictate the near-term direction,” Vanguard’s Roger Hallam said, indicating that the wider macro environment is pointing to a weaker USD.

Now analysts see a ceasefire as the likely outcome: “Our base case remains that it is in the interest of both parties to come to a deal [...] despite hiccups,” Jeffries’ chief Europe economist Mohit Kumar said.

EGX30	52,375	+0.8% (YTD: +25.2%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 52.56	Sell 52.70
USD (CIB)	Buy 52.52	Sell 52.62
Interest rates (CBE)	19.00% deposit	20.00% lending
Tadawul	11,110	-1.2% (YTD: +5.9%)
ADX	9,789	+0.4% (YTD: -2.0%)
DFM	5,854	+0.7% (YTD: -3.2%)
S&P 500	7,165	+0.8% (YTD: +4.5%)
FTSE 100	10,379	-0.8% (YTD: +4.3%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,883	-0.2% (YTD: +0.6%)
Brent crude	USD 105.33	+0.3%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.52	-3.5%
Gold	USD 4,741	+0.4%
BTC	USD 77,578	+0.2% (YTD: -11.5%)
S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index	1,047	+0.1% (YTD: +5.4%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	151.77	-0.1% (YTD: -0.1%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	18.71	-3.1% (YTD: +29.0%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 0.8% at Thursday’s close on turnover of EGP 12.9 bn (83.2% above the 90-day average). Regional investors were the sole net sellers. The index is up 25.2% YTD.

In the green: Qalaa Holdings (+8.7%), Emaar Misr (+4.4%), and Orascom Construction (+4.4%).

In the red: Misr Cement (-3.7%), Heliopolis Housing (-2.9%), and Orascom Development (-2.7%).

CALENDAR

2026

MAY

1 May (Friday): Labor Day.

5 May (Tuesday): S&P Global to release PMI figures for April

7 May (Thursday): Labor Day National Holiday.

7 May (Thursday): CBE expected to release foreign exchange reserve data for April

10 May (Sunday): Capmas expected to release inflation data from April

21 May (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s third meeting of 2026.

27-29 May (Wednesday-Friday): Eid El Adha (TBC).

JUNE

15 June (Monday): Seventh review of the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility

30 June (Tuesday): National holiday in observance of the June 30 Revolution (TBC).

JULY

9 July (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fourth meeting of 2026.

23 July (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Revolution Day (TBC).

AUGUST

20 August (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fifth meeting of 2026.

26 August (Wednesday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

SEPTEMBER

15 September (Tuesday): IMF to hold its eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

24 September (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s sixth meeting of 2026.

27-29 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Global Conference on Population, Health, and Human Development.

OCTOBER

6 October (Tuesday): Armed Forces Day.

29 October (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s seventh meeting of 2026.

DECEMBER

17 December (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s eighth meeting of 2026.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

Early 2026: Passenger operations on the New Administrative Capital-Nasr City monorail scheduled to begin.

1Q 2026: Trial operations for the Ain Sokhna-Sixth of October section of Egypt’s first high-speed rail line scheduled to begin.

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments.

July 2026: British Prime Minister Keir Starmer set to visit Egypt.

2H 2026: Operations at Deli Glass Co’s new USD 70 mn glassware factory kick off.

2026: The Egyptian-American Economic Forum.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings.

2027: Egypt-EU Summit 2027.

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

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