Sections

About

Privacy & Support

Get EnterpriseAM daily

Available in your choice of English or Arabic

Wednesday, 7 Jan 2026

What We’re Tracking Today
The Big Story Today
Ipo Watch
Tax
Also On Our Radar
Planet Finance
Calendar
Hardhat

Gourmet looks to go public

An independent publication supported by

Opening up a world of opportunity

Realize More

Live More

Powering with nature

Driving growth

Today at a glance

1

The Big Story Today

The latest reboot could see 13 more companies added to the privatization pipeline.
2

IPO WATCH

Gourmet is going to go public on the EGX.
3

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Private sector grows in December, albeit at a slower pace.
4

TAX

Manufacturers could see their property tax holiday extended.
5

ALSO ON OUR RADAR

Foreign reserves jump to USD 51.5 bn in December, but most of it was from revaluation of gold.
6

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Orascom Construction gets huge Ras El Hekma contract.
7

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Egyptera hits ‘pause’ on net metering for solar.
8

PLANET FINANCE

What Venezuela means for regional oil + where the risk actually went.
9

HARDHAT

What does 2026 hold for the real estate sector?
1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Orascom Construction secures EGP 15 bn Ras El Hekma contract

Good morning, wonderful people, and Merry Christmas to everyone celebrating this morning. We hope you’re all surrounded by family and friends — and that maybe (just maybe) you’re bridging tomorrow…

We have a quick read for you this morning, and it’s pretty much all good news.

Up first: Stop us if you’ve heard this one before… The Madbouly government is once again revisiting the state ownership policy and taking inventory of marketable assets on the state’s books. The goal: To add names to the list of companies and other assets it’s going to sell or take public. It’s more of the same — and more of the same noise about only offering minority stakes. Progress on privatization is important (particularly to the good folks at the IMF), but we really hope policymakers accept in 2026 the reality that there are very few real operators out there that want to be minority partners with *any* government.

MEANWHILE- B Investments looks like it’s going to IPO Gourmet Egypt, our favourite supermarket and food producer. It could set up a handsome exit for the private equity outfit. If successful, it could serve as proof of concept for other PE players looking to exit (in full or in part) assets they’ve carried on their books through one or more currency crises.

AND- Reserves are up again (thanks in large part to the revaluation of our gold holdings) and manufacturers could see their real estate tax holiday extended for a few more years.

^^ We have all of that and more in this morning’s news well, below.

** But first, a programming note: EnterpriseAM is off tomorrow and Morning Drive, our 6:30am daily podcast, is off today. Our Egypt staff will be taking Thursday off to enjoy a three-day weekend in observance of Coptic Christmas. We’ll be back in your inboxes on Sunday morning at the usual time. EntepriseAM UAE, EnterpriseAM Saudi, and EnterpriseAM Logistics all publish tomorrow.

WEEKEND WEATHER- Look for a high today in Cairo of 25°C with the mercury rising to 26°C tomorrow before a return to the high teens this weekend, our favorite weather app tells us.

December was good for the private sector

A closely-watched gauge says activity in the private sector grew again last month. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reading for Egypt in December stood at 50.2, according to S&P Global (pdf). That puts our non-oil private sector in expansion territory for the second month running, albeit at a slower rate than November’s 61-month high of 51.1.

The breakdown: December saw new orders and output expand again, though their pace of growth cooled from November’s highs. For the first time in 10 months, firms accelerated their purchasing activity to keep up with demand. Caution in hiring led to the sharpest drop in employment in over a year as firms focused on productivity over headcount.

Supply chain issues persisted, as vendor shortages caused input stocks to decline for the third straight month despite higher purchasing. Input cost inflation edged up slightly, driven by rising prices for fuel, cement, and wages. For the most part, companies passed on only modest price hikes despite the rise in their own costs.

Watch this space

ENERGY — The Egyptian Electric Utility and Consumer Protection Regulatory Agency (Egyptera) has hit pause on new net metering rules for solar power. After pushback from business leaders, the regulator opted for further study to ensure the new framework doesn’t stifle investment in the sector, chair of the Sustainable Energy Development Association Ayman Haiba tells EnterpriseAM.

Egyptera will now work on a revised model in a bid to bridge the gap between technical grid stability and the financial viability of private solar projects, Haiba tells us, warning that halting net metering could slow the rollout of solar energy projects.

IN CONTEXT- The move comes weeks after Egyptera suspended the net metering system starting at the end of December, a decision that put investments by 168 companies at risk. Any shutdown of net metering could directly hurt Egyptian exporters under Europe’s carbon border tax (CBAM) — which began its implementation phase on 1 January 2026 — and weaken the country’s competitiveness.

REAL ESTATE- Orascom Construction has secured a EGP 15 bn contract from the UAE’s Modon Holding to execute the first phase of the Wadi Yemm district in Ras El Hekma, Asharq Business reports. The scope of work includes infrastructure, residential units, administrative offices, and a 70-room hotel.

This contract is the first physical rollout of Modon’s investment plans, which we noted back in September involved earmarking EGP 45 bn for infrastructure and construction. Orascom Construction has effectively captured one-third of the initial budget Modon allocated for local contractors, cementing its role as a lead execution partner in the USD 35 bn mega-project.

What to watch for next: Awards to other large domestic players including Hassan Allam as the Emirati developer looks to accelerate work on Wadi Yemm — the first of 17 planned districts — to push forward with delivery of both residential units and tourist facilities.

** DID YOU KNOW that we cover Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the MENA-IndiaCorridor?

** Were you forwarded this email? Tap or click here to get your own copy delivered every weekday before 7am Cairo time — without charge.

The big story abroad

Uhm, did the US just *literally* steal Venezuela’s oil? Oil tankers are moving from the US towards Venezuela to begin loading stranded Venezuelan oil after US President Donald Trump said Venezuela will hand over some 30-50 mn barrels of oil to the US. The sale of the cargoes could be worth around USD 3 bn at current prices.

What he said: “That money will be controlled by me, as President of the United States of America, to ensure it is used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States,” Trump wrote in a post on his Truth Social platform.

^^ The must-read on the topic: Trump: Venezuela to turn over 30-50 mn barrels of oil to US.

And the White House is now saying that military force is on the table in its bid to “acquire” Greenland. “President Trump has made it well known that acquiring Greenland is a national security priority of the United States, and it’s vital to deter our adversaries in the Arctic region,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said. “The president and his team are discussing a range of options to pursue this important foreign policy goal, and of course, utilizing the US military is always an option at the commander-in-chief’s disposal.”

Her remarks came after White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller channeled his inner Balon Greyjoy, saying, “Nobody’s going to fight the United States militarily over the future of Greenland. … We live in a world, in the real world … that is governed by strength, that is governed by force, that is governed by power. These are the iron laws of the world since the beginning of time.” See more in the New York Times and the FT.

Closer to home:

  • Saudi Arabia has fully opened up its capital markets to foreign investors in a move set to bring in more liquidity ahead of a deep 2026 IPO pipeline.
  • The Qatar Investment Authority participated in Elon Musk’s xAI’s USD 20 bn series E funding round, alongside Nvidia and Cisco. (Reuters)
  • Clashes between civilians and police in Iran amid a wave of protests that took the country by storm as of last week have left 29 dead and more than 1.2k people arrested. (Bloomberg)

*** It’s Hardhat day — your weekly briefing of all things infrastructure in Egypt: EnterpriseAM’s industry vertical focuses each Wednesday on infrastructure, covering everything from energy, water, transportation, and urban development, as well as social infrastructure such as health and education.

In today’s issue: We look at the country’s real estate reset and what we can expect from the market now that the era of defensive demand and inflation hedging is behind us.

Tags:

Christmas is just the beginning. At Somabay, the celebrations unfold day by day, night by night, building all the way into the New Year. From rooftop takeovers and beach parties to late-night performances and full-band shows, the season is curated to let you choose your moment and celebrate it your way — right through the final countdown and beyond.

New Year’s and beyond at Somabay.

Celebrate when it feels right: Pick your night. Book your plans.

Discover the full December & NYE calendar here. Welcome the New Year at Somabay.

2

The Big Story Today

More companies to join Egypt’s privatization program

The Madbouly Government is kicking off the year with a plan to add 13 new companies to its privatization program, two senior government officials tell EnterpriseAM. The plan also includes a selldown of stakes owned by state-owned banks in government-related companies and taking other companies public.

Spearheading these efforts is a newly-formed prime ministerial committee that will soon start working on updating Cabinet’s state ownership policy.

Progress here is critical to keeping the IMF happy — and to signal to the business community that officials are serious about seeing the private-sector lead economic growth. As we’ve previously reported, slow progress on the privatization file has long been a sticking point in relations with the IMF as we speed toward the wrap-up of our USD 8 bn assistance program this fall.

AND- Proceeds from the privatization program would help shore up FX reserves, where officials have set a goal of building a USD 55-56 bn war chest before the end of the program.

What can you expect? Officials will kick the tires of public sector enterprises and their assets, including a large land portfolio estimated at around 2 mn square meters, as the government prepares to offer minority stakes ranging from 10-40% either to strategic investors or through the bourse, our sources said. The National Investment Bank (NIB) has been tasked with coordinating these offers, the sources added.

Our perpetual caveat: Few operators or financial investors are interested in being minority partners with the state. Cabinet will need to put majority stakes on offer if it’s serious about getting out of the economy.

Consolidation for value: The government plans to merge companies with overlapping activities to reduce operational losses and trim financial entanglements, according to the source.

A new census: An internal government audit revealed that of the 561 state-owned companies, 364 are currently profitable.

IN CONTEXT: The NIB alone holds stakes in 85 companies across sectors including petrochemicals, pharma, manufacturing, and housing. State-owned giants including NBE and Banque Misr have countless others on their balance sheets.

Where the money will go: The proceeds are intended to settle outstanding financial entanglements and improve the financial positions of these companies.

What’s next: A final draft of the updated policy is expected to see the light by June 2026.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Tags:

This publication is proudly sponsored by

3

IPO WATCH

No foreign buyer? No problem. Gourmet files for IPO as B Investments eyes monetization

Our favourite supermarket chain and food producer is getting ready to go public. Gourmet has submitted a request to the Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) to IPO on the EGX, a source with direct knowledge of the transaction tells EnterpriseAM, confirming a report in the domestic press earlier this week.

What could the transaction look like? Gourmet could announce in the coming weeks a plan to offer up to 40%. The company, backed by high-profile private equity outfit B Investments, has been exploring a potential IPO for more than a year now, as we’ve previously reported. In August 2024, B Investments, which owns 53% of Gourmet, was reportedly considering a partial selldown, a full exit, while founder Jalal Abu Ghazaleh, who as of 2024 held 47% of the grocer, had engaged EFG Hermes to advise on a potential stake sale.

!_SuHed_! Our take

“We see this as a deliberate choice to lean into market momentum,” Mirette Ramez, managing director of Nexus Capital, which has multiple ongoing engagements with family-run businesses, told EnterpriseAM. She notes that Gourmet is becoming a textbook case study for family businesses that “build scale, open their capital structure to a seasoned financial investor (B Investments), and tap public markets for liquidity.”

This could be the exit B Investments has been waiting for, with Chairman Hazem Barakat previously signaling the 1Q 2026 window for a selldown. B Investments acquired 40% of Gourmet in 2018 for EGP 65 mn, implying a valuation of roughly EGP 160 mn, before raising its stake to 53% through a capital increase. With the company valued at an estimated EGP 1.5 bn in 2024, the private equity firm is looking at a healthy exit.

Barakat had suggested in 2023 that a sale to a foreign strategic investor could be in the cards, but the transaction stalled when the potential buyer revised its strategy. Heading to the EGX now suggests B Investments thinks it can lock in a healthy valuation — and that there’s enough liquidity in the market to pull off a successful transaction. The delay in pursuing a foreign buyer only strengthened Gourmet’s equity story, as 30-40% y-o-y growth in 2024 reinforced the rationale for going public, according to Barakat.

Advisors: Our friends at EFG Hermes are reportedly quarterbacking the transaction, with White & Case acting as counsel. EnterpriseAM haven’t yet gotten callbacks on who is advising — we’ll let you folks know when we do.

GO DEEPER- Abu Ghazaleh is now running AM Foods full-time since stepping back from Gourmet. AM Foods was his first business and is now exporting baladi bread to the United States under contract to a major national supermarket chain. We caught up with him a couple of weeks ago. Read: Food entrepreneur Jalal Abu Ghazaleh on cracking the US export market.

Tags:
4

TAX

Egypt mulls extension of industrial property tax waiver

The Finance Ministry is weighing a one-to-two-year extension of the property tax exemption for some 20 manufacturing sectors, a senior government official tells EnterpriseAM. The current grace period, where the state foots the EGP 3.3 bn annual tax bill for manufacturers, is set to expire this month. A decision is being studied to avoid a ‘sudden fiscal shock’ to manufacturers. Policymakers see manufacturing as a cornerstone of both currency stability and GDP growth, the source added.

Why it matters: The move suggests policymakers are working in tandem. If true, it’s an important signal for the private sector. The Central Bank of Egypt has made clear it’s moving forward with its easing cycle. The hope is that interest rates get low enough that it makes sense for domestic businesses to borrow — in EGP — to fund capital expenditures. The Finance Ministry wants to make sure that manufacturers have the cashflows they need to allow them to take on and service debt instead of having it sucked up by tax burdens, the source says.

Does that mean the exemption is here to stay? While manufacturers are lobbying for a permanent exemption, our source says it’s not in the cards: Giving makers of things a permanent break wouldn’t survive legal review, he says.

More good news for industry: A parallel committee is studying how property tax collection will work once the temporary exemption ends, including resolving issues around open land surrounding factories and establishing clear mechanisms for application and compliance. Factories may also benefit from debt settlement facilities and a cap on late-payment penalties at 100% of the original tax owed.

The big picture: This shift moves in tandem with discussions in the Senate to amend the Property Tax Law. Those amendments aim to raise the exemption threshold to account for inflation and the spike in property valuations, while pushing for digital transformation and lower penalties.

Tags:

5

ALSO ON OUR RADAR

Egypt’s foreign reserves jump to USD 51.5 bn in December

Foreign reserves still on an upward trend

Egypt’s net foreign reserves reached USD 51.5 bn at the end of December, surging over USD 1.2 bn from November, according to central bank data (pdf). The jump was driven by a USD 914 mn increase in the value of our gold reserves and another USD 327 increase in foreign currency holdings, which offset a USD 5 mn slip in Special Drawing Rights.

Turkey’s AS Tekstil to set up textile accessories plant in Qantara

Turkish label manufacturer AS Tekstil signed a USD 4.1 mn contract yesterday to establish a production facility in the SCZone’s Qantara West Industrial Zone, according to a statement. The 3k-sqm factory will produce 60 mn garment labels and textile accessories annually and is expected to create 300 direct jobs once fully operational.

Matouk Bassiouny & Hennawy edges closer to launching full operations in Saudi

Cairo-headquartered regional law firm Matouk Bassiouny & Hennawy acquired a 75% stake in a Saudi firm as it gears up to launch full operations in the kingdom this year, Founding Partner Omar Bassiouny told Al Borsa in an interview. This marks the firm’s second major GCC expansion following its entry into the UAE, effectively linking the three biggest markets in the MENA region. MBH first signaled it was looking at the Gulf back in 2023.

FRA goes paperless

The Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) launched a one-month pilot for the first unified digital payment network for the non-banking financial sector (NBFS), according to a statement (pdf). Developed with EGX-listed fintech player e-Finance, the platform replaces paper-based settlements with a single electronic interface for all regulatory dues and service fees. Regulated companies can now settle financial obligations and track records in real-time, moving the sector away from manual, delayed filings.

What this means: The NBFS sector is getting too big to manage on paper. Players in the industry provided financing worth more than EGP 1 tn in the first 10 months of 2025 for the first time, recording EGP 1.1 tn.

Midar, Sporting for Investment to set up EGP 3 bn new social and sports club

Midar Investment and Urban Development has partnered with Alexandria Sporting Club’s Sporting for Investment and Sports Facilities to develop the first social and sports club in Mostakbal City, with investments exceeding EGP 3 bn, according to a press release (pdf). Construction work on the 42-feddan project will take place over three phases, with the first phase slated to open in 1H 2027.

The strategy: Midar — the master developer of Mostakbal City and Mada — is moving to institutionalize the service offerings across its 46 mn sqm land bank. With a target population of 1 mn residents across its projects, the club is a play to drive value for its existing residential plots while building out a portfolio of recurring-revenue service assets. “The project is a strategic step to develop the sports and social infrastructure in Mostakbal City,” Midar MD and CEO Ayman El Koussy said.

Tags:
6

PLANET FINANCE

What Venezuela means for regional oil + where the risk actually went

The usual script of conflict driving oil shock has been flipped, with markets barely moving after the US capture of Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro. Brent rose only about USD 1 / bbl, with analysts noting that in a supplied global market, Venezuela’s turmoil poses little immediate threat to output. That muted reaction reflects the reality that oil markets are in oversupply — with or without Venezuela. The International Energy Agency has been sounding the glut alarm for months, saying that supply is set to exceed demand by some 4 mn bbl / d this year.

Even under optimistic scenarios, new barrels would take years to materialize. JPMorgan sees Venezuelan production reaching 1.3-1.4 mn bbl / d within two years and up to 2.5 mn bbl / d over a decade, with a limited market impact — roughly USD 4 / bbl downside to 2030 prices.

While global markets are broadly unmoved, the outlook for our neck of the woods is mixed. With uncertainty on how the long-term movements will shake out, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE will each have different angles to watch for.

Who wins and who bleeds

For Egypt, it’s cheaper crude and fiscal breathing room: Every USD 5 / bbl drop in Brent cuts subsidy costs by roughly EGP 30 bn, easing fiscal pressure in the near term, according to CI Capital calculations. Energy subsidies still make up about 90% of total subsidies, but that share is set to fall to some 30% by this year as price liberalization continues.

A sharp drop in Brent would hit Saudi Arabia hard: Lower prices would squeeze fiscal capacity, drain liquidity, and weigh on sentiment. Saudi’s fiscal breakeven sits around USD 87 / bbl, according to CI’s estimates, leading to more strain on public finances and heavier reliance on external borrowing. That’s still far higher than the USD 60 / bbl range we’re currently sitting at.

Balance for the UAE: The country offers stability through low breakeven and diversified revenue — the reason why it remains a credit market darling. Non-oil activity makes up roughly 75% of GDP, and the fiscal breakeven oil price sits near USD 48 / bbl.

A narrow window?

Venezuelan barrels don’t compete head-on with most Middle Eastern crude. They’re heavy and sour, putting them in a different lane than the light and medium grades that dominate Gulf exports. Refineries that want Venezuelan crude are highly specialized, and are mostly in the US.

This opens the door for US refiners to take in more Venezuelan crude — easing reliance on pricier Canadian heavy barrels. The flipside is that barrels would likely be pulled away from China, which has taken most of Caracas’ exports since US sanctions kicked in.

Those volumes are marginal in China’s overall balance and easy to replace — and replacement matters. If Venezuelan barrels are directed to the US, China will have to look elsewhere, and the most obvious substitute is the Middle East.

The window: Saudi Arabia and Iraq sell some heavier grades that can be snatched up by China, with Middle Eastern producers still having the edge on logistics, reliability, and scale. Venezuela’s supply is constrained, operationally messy, and politically fragile.

The macro view: Where the risk actually went

Capital moved first into credit: After Vice President (and former Oil Minister) Delcy Rodriguez was sworn in as interim president, investors wasted no time piling into Venezuelan assets. The government’s and the state oil company’s defaulted sovereign bonds surged some 30% in a single day as regime-change hedges went into overdrive.

Equities followed: Big refiners such as Marathon Petroleum and Phillips 66 jumped 5-7%. Oilfield services — the ones who actually drill — outperformed with SLB and Halliburton surging 7-8%. Majors also moved, with ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips gaining 2-4%.

The move effectively puts oil collateral pledged to China in “US hands,” weakens Russian oil’s strategic relevance, and creates a long runway for US refiners and oil-services firms, Micheal Burry, the Big Short investor, said. Valero — whose Gulf Coast refineries were built for Venezuelan heavy crude — jumped some 10%, with Burry doubling down on the stock.

Why this matters: It marks a shift in how markets price geopolitical risk, which had been largely absent from commodity markets during the glut. A decade ago, the ouster of an Opec strongman might have sent oil prices skyrocketing, but defaulted bonds are in demand and energy stocks are rallying, while oil itself yawns. Traders see Venezuela’s upheaval as a credit-and-equity play — rather than a supply disruption to panic over — migrating the risk premium away from commodities and into market assets.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

It’s back to a mix of red and green for Asia-Pacific markets this morning, weighed down by defense stocks falling after two days of gains. South Korea’s Kospi is trading up, while most other markets are in the red in early trading. Meanwhile, US stocks rallied to record highs overnight but futures are currently trading flat.

EGX30

41,543

+2.1% (YTD: -0.7%)

USD (CBE)

Buy 47.20

Sell 47.33

USD (CIB)

Buy 47.25

Sell 47.35

Interest rates (CBE)

20.00% deposit

21.00% lending

Tadawul

10,291

-0.3% (YTD: -1.9%)

ADX

9,996

+0.5% (YTD: 0.0%)

DFM

6,183

+0.9% (YTD: +2.2%)

S&P 500

6,945

+0.6% (YTD: +1.5%)

FTSE 100

10,123

+1.2% (YTD: +1.9%)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,932

+0.1% (YTD: +2.4%)

Brent crude

USD 60.70

-1.7%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 3.43

+2.3%

Gold

USD 4,493

0.0%

BTC

USD 93,450

-0.4% (YTD: +6.8%)

S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index

996.04

+0.2% (YTD: +0.3%)

S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk

151.71

0.0% (YTD: -0.1%)

VIX (Volatility Index)

14.75

-1.0% (YTD: -1.7%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 2.1% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 4.8 bn (10.5% below the 90-day average). International investors were the sole net buyers. The index is down 0.7% YTD.

In the green: Juhayna (+6.5%), Raya Holding (+5.3%), and E-finance (+4.7%).

In the red: Misr Cement (-1.2%), Palm Hills Developments (-0.4%), and Valmore Holding- USD (-0.3%).

Tags:

Our weekly deep-dive into infrastructure in Egypt.

Published every Wednesday in EnterpriseAM.

Read Hardhat
7

HARDHAT

From hedging to fundamentals: Egypt’s real estate reset

The FX-driven revaluation of Egypt’s real estate stocks has run its course, with EGX investors moving away from blanket real estate exposure and toward developers with cashvisibility and fast payback speeds. Investors are no longer buying the sector; they are buying specific business models. The market is pivoting away from developers with decade-long payment plans and toward those with fastcash cycles — specifically tourism, commercial rentals, and high-velocity execution.

The end of the “store of value” era

“The years immediately following currency devaluation were largely driven by defensive demand, inflation hedging, and aggressive repricing,” Randa Hamed, managing director at Okaz Asset Management, tells EnterpriseAM. During that period, investors didn’t need to be picky; owning real estate was enough, because it functioned primarily as a store of value rather than a productivity-driven asset class.

The pivot: As the market heads into 2026, the defensive cushion is gone, replaced by what Hamed calls “noticeably higher selectivity from both end-users and capital markets.” The market is now filtering for developers who can survive 2026 — which Arkan Palm Director Ahmed Badreldin warned would be a “tough year” even as the next upward cycle begins.

The new drivers: liquidity, tourism, and commercial assets

Developers have moved beyond land-bank models toward operating businesses with monetizable cashflows best positioned to ride this new wave. Investor interest is increasingly focused on administrative and commercial assets that provide recurring rental income, supported by Egypt’s expanding outsourcing economy and calmer pricing dynamics, Bonyan CEO Tarek Abdelrahman tells us.

Higher interest rates played into the hands of developers with strong balance sheets: “The period of higher interest rates has acted as a natural filter,” Hamed said. “It has favored developers with strong balance sheets, execution capabilities, and land banks, while putting pressure on weaker players,” she added. HC Capital’s Mariam Al Saadany echoed a similar view, telling us we can expect larger, institutional-grade players to aggressively capture market share as smaller, money-strapped developers are forced to exit.

The tourism premium: Stocks offering short visible cash cycles — specifically through tourism — outperformed the wider market. Talaat Mostafa Group’s hospitality projects managed to move the needle for the company more than its residential developments did, head of research at Al Ahly Pharos Hany Genena tells us. With hotel occupancy at 80-90% and a massive project near the GEM, the key driver was the company’s involvement in tourism. Similarly, Orascom Development Egypt benefited from a tourism premium driven by exposure to El Gouna and the potential reopening of Taba hotels as regional tensions ease.

Why reported earnings and long pipelines are losing favor

Reported earnings have ceased to be a reliable signal for investors. Most developers use the completed contract method, recognizing revenue only upon delivery. However, current earnings reports often reflect sales from three or four years ago, Genena explains, leading investors to largely shrug off the numbers.

The industry-wide shift toward 12- to 15-year payment plans has been damaging to valuations. “You are going to get your money back as an investor after 12 years,” Genena says, reinforcing concerns about liquidity and working-capital duration. Investors prefer short working capital cycles over “paper returns,” he added. Pure-play developers with Egypt-only exposure and long-duration pipelines now face capped valuation upside.

Maturation, not explosion

Heading into 2026, the real estate market is hitting an affordability ceiling, particularly for mass and mid-income segments. Buyers are now hypersensitive to delivery credibility and execution timelines, making construction cost control and cashflow discipline decisive differentiators.

For a meaningful reset, borrowing costs must drop. “The most sustained and broad-based real estate booms in Egypt tend to occur when interest rates move closer to 10% or below,” Hamed says. Any sustained acceleration is likely to be linked to the pace at which interest rates converge toward historically supportive levels.

New access points: “The upcoming launch of regulated real estate investment funds introduces a new layer of institutional capital, allowing investors exposure to real assets through professionally managed vehicles rather than direct development risk,” Hamed explains. In parallel, digital platforms and applications like Safe by Madinet Masr and Nawy are reshaping access to real estate from both investment and distribution standpoints.

Next week in part two of this story, we will look at how these real estate fundamentals translate into equity flows, valuation gaps, and investor appetite, and whether real estate stocks can convince the market they deserve another re-rating.

Tags:

CALENDAR

2026

JANUARY

7 January (Wednesday): Coptic Christmas.

22 January (Thursday): ESBC SEEING webinar, From Zurich to Cairo: How Global Executive Research Shapes Tomorrow’s Leadership.

25 January (Sunday): Revolution Day / Police Day.

FEBRUARY

10-12 February (Tuesday-Thursday): Gitex Global’s AI Everything Middle East & Africa Summit

12 February (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s first meeting.

19 February (Thursday): First day of Ramadan (TBC).

MARCH

15 March (Sunday): IMF to hold its seventh review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

21 March: (Saturday): Eid El Fitr starts (TBC).

30 March – 1 April (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt International Energy Conference and Exhibition 2026 (EGYPES)

APRIL

2 April (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s second meeting.

12 April (Sunday): Coptic Easter.

25 April (Saturday): Sinai Liberation Day.

MAY

1 May (Friday): Labor Day.

21 May (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s third meeting.

27-29 May (Wednesday-Friday): Eid El Adha (TBC).

JUNE:

30 June (Tuesday): National holiday in observance of June 30 Revolution (TBC).

JULY

9 July (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fourth meeting.

23 July (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Revolution Day (TBC).

AUGUST

20 August (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fifth meeting.

26 August (Wednesday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

SEPTEMBER

15 September (Tuesday): IMF to hold its eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

24 September (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s sixth meeting.

27-29 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Global Conference on Population, Health and Human Development.

OCTOBER

6 October (Tuesday): Armed Forces Day.

29 October (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s seventh meeting.

DECEMBER

17 December (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s eighth meeting.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

Early 2026: Passenger operations on the New Administrative Capital–Nasr City monorail scheduled to begin.

Early 2026: The government will launch the second package of tax breaks.

1Q 2026: Trial operations for the Ain Sokhna–Sixth of October section of Egypt’s first high-speed rail line scheduled to begin.

1Q 2026: Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan to visit Egypt

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments

2H 2026: Operations at Deli Glass Co’s new USD 70 mn glassware factory kick off.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings.

2027: Egypt-EU Summit 2027

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

Now Playing
Now Playing
00:00
00:00