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GEM opens its doors today for trial operations

1

What We're Tracking Today

The Grand Egyptian Museum kicks off trial operations today

Good morning, all. We have a packed issue for you this morning as we dive into Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman’s time in Cairo and his meeting with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and a whole lot of M&A news, most notably Arla Foods’ bid for Domty.

BUT FIRST- We’re looking for our first dedicated audience development professional. Someone who loves the challenge of helping us reach new readers in new markets — Saudi, the UAE, and lots more to come —using a range of digital channels and tools. You’re someone who thrives on working in a small, focused team. You’ve got proven digital skills (more likely than not on the performance marketing side). And you want to be part of what we immodestly think is the region’s most exciting media, advisory, and business intelligence company.

Interested? Tell Patrick and Moustafa why and send us your resume on newjobs@enterprise.news. We’d love to hear from you today. The position is based in Cairo, offers two days a week working anywhere you please, and offers a competitive package. (We’re also pretty nice people to work with, if we don’t say so ourselves.)

HAPPENING TODAY-

The Grand Egyptian Museum’s (GEM) trial operations of its main galleries begin today, offering visitors a preview of 12 curated exhibition halls, the museum said in a statement (pdf). The trial phase is part of the museum’s ongoing efforts to iron out any issues ahead of the museum’s much-anticipated opening.

EnterpriseAM dropped by the museum yesterday to get the downlow first hand. During the trial operations, GEM will welcome only 4k visitors a day, Assistant Tourism Minister for Archaeological Affairs at the GEM Al Tayeb Abbas told us. Following its official opening, the museum will play a prominent role in supporting the state reaching its ambitious tourism footfall targets, Abbas added.

The date of the full opening of the museum is still under wraps, with Abbas confirming to EnterpriseAM that the official opening date is yet to be decided.

HAPPENING TOMORROW-

To cut, or not to cut: The Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet tomorrow to decide on our interest rate trajectory. All of the analysts and economists we surveyed for our EnterpriseAM poll see the MPC holding rates steady as the central bank works to prioritize controlling inflation over any monetary policy easing.

Naeem Holding is also forecasting that the bank will keep rates as they are, as the CBE responds to several issues facing the Egyptian economy, Naeem’s VP of equity research, Hesham Hamdey, told EnterpriseAM. Hamdey points to sticky inflation, current investor wariness of Egyptian debt, and Israel’s war on its neighbors endangering Egypt-bound gas flows and ramping up the price of energy imports.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- IFC finalizes airport management transfer plan: The International Finance Corporation (IFC) has submitted its technical study and proposed timeline to the government for handing over management of Egypt’s airports to the private sector, unnamed sources told Al Arabiya. The plan reportedly involves offering the management and operation of 20 of the country’s airports as part of the country’s privatization push.

We’ve been on the lookout for airport privatization news since Prime Minister Madbouly said earlier this week that some “important” privatization news regarding airports and banks would be announced soon. The Madbouly government first revealed plans inNovember 2023 to invite private sector players — including foreign companies — to take over the management of airports in the country.


#2- SCZone gets ready to launch large-scale green hydrogen projects: Five large-scale green hydrogen projects will kick off construction within a year on five plots of land currently being prepared by the Suez Canal Economic Zone, the SCZone’s executive director told Al Mal. The projects should be completed within four years, Saad added.

The zone’s first water desalination public-private partnership is also set to be launched, which will be used to help produce green hydrogen in the zone, Saad added.

DATA POINT-

#1- Egypt’s Zohr gas field produced an average of 2 bn cbf natural per day during the last fiscal year, PetroShorouk Chairman Khaled Mowafy said according to an Oil Ministry statement.


#2- Giza’s recently-inaugurated Bashteel station can accommodate up to 250k passengers a day, making the project four times the size of Ramses Station, project developer Hassan Allam Construction said in a statement (pdf).


#3- EGP 27 bn worth of PPPs coming this fiscal year: The government is eying six new public-private partnerships (PPPs) this fiscal year with investments exceeding EGP 27 bn, writes Asharq Business, citing Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk. The Madbouly government is currently looking into a number of projects, including electricity transformer stations, wastewater treatment plants, technical schools, warehouses, and wholesale markets.

PSA-

WEATHER- It’s another cool day in Cairo, with a high of 30°C and a low of 21°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s even cooler in Alexandria, with a high of 28°C and a low of 20°C.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

#1- EFG Hermes will host its One on One Conference from 7 to 10 April 2025 in Dubai, the largest gathering of its kind in the MENA region. The conference connects hundreds of international company leaders with institutional investors and family offices.


#2- CEO Women Conference will kick off at the end of the month: The CEO WomenConference will take place on 30 October under the theme The Future of Healthcare in Egypt. The conference will highlight women's role in healthcare, the global focus on public health, and the role of AI in healthcare. The event — which will be held at the Four Seasons Hotel — will bring together over 950 attendees and 30 speakers.

The conference will also debut the Entrepreneur Zone, a platform that will allow female entrepreneurs to showcase their innovative projects, connect with investors, and build valuable partnerships.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Nothing goes up and to the right forever. That’s the key takeaway on a very busy morning for global business news as market watchers join an increasingly loud debate about how much gas is left in the tank for the global equities market.

On the “we’re worried” side: Shars of the most important tech company you’ve never heard of slumped the most in 26 years after it booked not even 50% of the orders analysts expected. ASML Holding makes key equipment that chipmakers themselves use to make chips; the shortfall in orders has folks taking a deeper look at the chipmaking industry. Companies that sell chips with AI applications are doing really well — those that sell more workaday semiconductors for the auto, memory, and other industries? Not doing nearly as well.

Also on the worried side of the ledger: Luxury goods conglomerate LVMH saw sales slump in 3Q and says the outlook is “uncertain,” thanks in large part to a pullback in spending by Chinese consumers.

On the other side: US consumers look on track to spend about 3.5% more during the upcoming holiday season, a business group representing American retailers said. And Goldman Sachs has just reported a “monster jump” in 3Q earnings while Bank of America did a bit better than analysts had expected and Citi recorded 44% increase in fee income from investment banking activities.

The state of the debate (presented with no guidance…): Can the stock market keep goingup? Market watchers think so.

ALSO IN THE BUSINESS PAGES on this fine fall morning:

MEANWHILE- There are 19 days to go until the US election. About 2x more voters turnedout to cast early ballots yesterday in the key state of Georgia compared to during the 2020 cycle. Kamala Harris is on a media blitz. And Donald Trump is beating his protectionist drum.

IN POLITICS- Washington has warned Tel Aviv it has 30 days to allow more aid into Gaza or risk a cut to arms sales (Wall Street Journal | New York Time | Reuters).

And for our fellow iSheep: Apple has released an updated iPad Mini with a beefed up processor (the same as in last year’s Pro model) and the same big, ugly bezels as last year, too.


** DID YOU KNOW that we now cover Saudi Arabia and the UAE?

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*** It’s Hardhat day — your weekly briefing of all things infrastructure in Egypt: Enterprise’s industry vertical focuses each Wednesday on infrastructure, covering everything from energy, water, transportation, and urban development, as well as social infrastructure such as health and education.

In today’s issue: We dive into how mixing green hydrogen into the country’s existing natural gas pipelines could help with the country’s energy transition.

Somabay, every reason to fall in love.

2

Diplomacy

Mohammed Bin Salman spent the day in Cairo, talking trade, investment, diplomacy with El Sisi

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman was in Cairo yesterday for a one-day visit that saw him meet with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi to discuss strengthening relations and other issues of common interest, according to an Ittihadeya statement. The two sides touched on trade and investment, as well as regional tension.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

The outcome: The two sides inked the formation of the Egyptian-Saudi Supreme Coordination Council, which will be co-chaired by them. They also inked an Agreement on Promotion and Mutual Protection of Investments between Egypt and Saudi, which chairman of the Egyptian-Saudi Joint Business Council Bandar Al Ameri previously said could bring in upwards of USD 10 bn in bilateral investments over the next three years.

A two-month wait time: The agreement will be implemented within the coming two months once the legislation receives the regulatory greenlight from both sides, Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly said last month.

Remember: Saudi Arabia is looking to turn its deposits with the Central Bank of Egypt into investments, with a focus on the industry, tourism, ICT, logistics, and green energy sectors

We’ve been investing a lot in Saudi, too: During the first half of this year, over 1.7k Egyptian investors got their Saudi investment license — representing 30% of the 5.9k licenses given out during the six-month period, according to data from the Saudi Investment Ministry.

The two leaders also discussed regional developments — particularly the situations in Gaza and Lebanon. “Both sides agreed on the gravity of the regional situation and the necessity to de-escalate tensions. The two leaders emphasized that the establishment of a sovereign Palestinian state, in accordance with international legitimacy resolutions, is the only path to achieving sustainable ceasefire, peace, and security in the region,” the statement read. Discussions also touched on what’s happening in Sudan, Libya, and Syria.

The story got ink from Bloomberg and Reuters.

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3

M&A WATCH

Arla Foods looks to take over Domty in USD 183 mn transaction

It was a busy 24 hours for M&A news — Danish Arla Foods wants to snap up Domty, AngloGold Ashanti’s bid for Centamin gets the greenlight from the Egyptian Competition Authority, and updates on Amoun’s planned acquisition of Atlas for Investment and Food Industries.

ARLA FOODS WANTS DOMTY-

Arla is eyeing a complete takeover of Domty: Denmark-based Arla Foods has submitted a non-binding offer to acquire up to 100% of local cheesemaker Domty, according to a press release.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

The offer: Arla is looking to buy a majority stake of up to 100% in the company at EGP 31.48 per share, valuing the company at some EGP 8.9 bn or USD 183 mn. The offer price of EGP 31.48-a-pop represents a 74.6% premium on Domty’s closing price of EGP 18.03 yesterday.

Our large dairy market is a big part of the pull: “The dairy market in Egypt is substantial, Domty is a leading player in that market, and the company is well aligned with our strategy,” Arla’s Senior VP for MENA Kim Valladsen said. The MENA region is Arla’s second largest commercial area after Europe.

A full takeover seems unlikely, with Arla expecting the founding El Damaty family to keep a stake in the company, with Mohamed El Damaty to continue to lead the company as CEO.

El Damaty confirmed this in a Facebook post, saying that whether the transaction goes through or not, he will remain atop the company’s board of directors and the company’s plans to add more production lines and acquire a new plot of land will move forward.

A vote of confidence in the local market: “The offer shows just how much Domty has been undervalued amid weak valuations and a low share price over the eight years since its IPO,” El Damaty said.

More details: Arla plans to delist the company from the EGX in the event of a successful purchase.

What’s next? The offer is subject to “satisfactory due diligence, definitive documentation, corporate and regulatory approval.”

Not the company’s first venture into the Egyptian market: Back in 2015, Arla formed a JVwith dairy giant Juhayna to sell Arla’s products in Egypt. The company further cemented its name in the regional market after securing the license to use the Kraft brand in the Middle East.

Advisors: EFG Hermes is acting as the exclusive financial advisors to Arla on the transaction, a source close to the matter told EnterpriseAM.

ECA GREENLIGHTS ANGLOGOLD’S CENTAMIN ACQUISITION-

ECA clears the path for AngloGold’s acquisition of Centamin: The Egyptian Competition Authority (ECA) has approved NYSE-listed miner AngloGold Ashanti’s offer to take over LSE- and TSX-listed Centamin, according to an LSE disclosure.

Refresher: The two companies agreed last month to an acquisition that will see AngloGold buy Centamin in a cash and share transaction valued at around USD 2.5 bn. The acquisition will give AngloGold — the sixth-largest gold miner in the world — ownership of Egypt’s Centamin-run Sukari mine.

What’s next?Centamin shareholders are scheduled to vote on the transaction at the end of October for the transaction to be finalized before year end.

PREMIUM HEALTHCARE HAS MORE ACQUISITIONS IN THE PIPELINE-

Premium Healthcare subsidiary eyes Jordan expansion with new JV: Premium Healthcare — formerly City Labs — subsidiary Premium Diagnostics UAE is forming a joint venture with Jordan’s Qudah Consulting Laboratories, the company said in an EGX filing (pdf). The JV — dubbed Premium Diagnostics for Laboratories and Medical Supplies — will open 20 new branches over the next three years and be jointly owned by the two companies in a 50/50 split. The final investment and capital requirements are expected to be settled within 60 days.

All part of a bigger plan: The medical diagnostics company has plans to expand its network of labs to 216 across Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan next year.

THE CLOCK IS TICKING ON AMOUN’S OFFER FOR ATLAS-

To sell or not to sell? Atlas For Investment and Food Industries shareholders have 20 working days to respond to Amoun for Real Estate and Tourism Development’s MTO for 65.59% of the company, according to an EGX bulletin. Shareholders have until Tuesday, 12 November to respond to the offer — the acquisition will be executed within the five working days that follow.

ICYMI: Amoun wants to buy 427.2 mn of Atlas’ shares at EGP 0.78 per share in a mandatory tender offer, putting the transaction’s value at EGP 333.22 mn by our math. Last month, it submitted a mandatory tender offer to acquire a majority stake in Atlas, with the Financial Regulatory Authority approved earlier this week.

4

M&A WATCH

Adnoc completes acquisition of OCI’s stake in Fertiglobe

That’s a wrap on Adnoc’s Fertiglobe acquisition: Nassef Sawiris-owned chemical producer OCI has sold its entire 50% stake in ammonia and urea producer Fertiglobe to the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) in a USD 3.62 bn transaction, according to statements from the buyer (pdf) and the seller. The transaction pushes Adnoc’s stake in Fertiglobe to 86.2%, with the remaining 13.8% free floating on the ADX.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Remember: The two companies inked a binding agreement for the sale in December. Adnoc secured the necessary approvals to move forward with the transaction earlier this week.

What this means for Fertiglobe: Adnoc is set to integrate its domestic and global low-carbon ammonia projects into Fertiglobe to more than double the firm’s ammonia project capacity. Fertiglobe will retain its management team, including CEO Ahmed El Hoshy, who will depart his role as OCI CEO.

Fertiglobe has a big presence in Egypt: Fertiglobe shipped the world’s first ISCCPLUS-certified green ammonia to India from its green hydrogen electrolyzer in Egypt last year. The company also recently secured a EUR 397 mn offtake agreement that will see it supply Germany’s H2Global with up to 19.5k tons of green ammonia annually beginning in 2027 — the Egypt Green Hydrogen project will supply the green hydrogen needed for the project.

5

Investment Watch

Egyptian-led Moonbase Capital launches USD 15 mn search fund investment vehicle

Moonbase to invest USD 15 mn in search funds with an eye on emerging markets: Egyptian-led, Spain-based search fund investment firm Moonbase Capital has launched its second, USD 15 mn investment vehicle, according to a press release (pdf). Some 40% of the funds will go to search funds in developing markets — including Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Search funds? Search funds are investment outfits that raise funds from investors to acquire a small- or medium-sized business (SME) that is already operating well in the market, to then grow it and ensure return to their investors. Through the acquisition, the CEO of the company is replaced with a seasoned entrepreneur to lead the company for a period of time until the fund exits the investment. As a search fund investment vehicle, Moonbase invests in search funds that find scalable SMEs that will provide solid returns on investment.

The company is targeting bigger ticket sizes and a more global reach this time around: Moonbase aims to build on the successes of its first USD 10 mn fund — which backed 35 searchers predominantly located in Europe — by targeting bigger investments and backing searchers in emerging market economies that can offer exciting returns, Managing Partner Tarek El Gammal told EnterpriseAM.

The details: Moonbase’s new fund will target 10-15% stakes with an average ticket price of EUR 1.25 mn in around 15 companies over the course of the fund’s 3-4 year investment period, with plans to exit the investments within 4-5 years.

The main target: The company is looking at cash-rich and asset-light SMEs with high profitability, low customer concentration, recurring revenue — a profile often associated with a B2B service business model, El Gammal tells us.

A global view: The company is also looking to invest beyond Europe, with plans to deploy around 40% of the USD 15 mn in Latin American, Southeast Asian, and the Middle Eastern markets. While the company is not yet looking to invest in Egypt, Moonbase does have searchers currently scouring for potential investments in the Saudi and Emirati markets, El Gammal said.

The fund is being spearheaded by an all-Egyptian leadership team, including El Gammal and fellow managing partner Tamer El Bahay — both longtime players in the Egyptian and regional SME space. “We've all run SMEs in developing markets, so that's an expertise that we have that's very different to a lot of the search fund investors,” El Gammal said.

6

LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

All about the Saudi crown prince's Egypt visit

All eyes were on the Ittihadiya Palace, where Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman met President Abdel Fattah El Sisi during his day-long visit to Egypt. Talk shows had coverage of the meeting and what it means for the growing Egypt-Saudi relationship (watch, runtime: 8:03).

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

** We have the full rundown of what went down during the crown prince’s visit in the news well, above.

Timing is everything: The visit's timing is significant given the two countries’ shared vision for and desire to craft a common consensus around regional de-escalation, head of the Arab and Regional Studies Unit at Al Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies Mohamed Ezz El Arab told Salaat El Tahrir's Faten Abdel Maaboud (watch, runtime: 2:50). Saudi Arabia views Egypt as an influential Arab power in regional affairs, one of King Saud University's political science professors told Yahduth Fi Masr’s Sherif Amer (watch, runtime: 2:44).

The Saudi crown prince departed Egypt at the end of the day after sharing a thank-you message to President El Sisi afterwards.

7

EGYPT IN THE NEWS

GEM’s trial run caught the attention of foreign press

GEM’s soft opening led the conversation on Egypt in the foreign press this morning, with both Reuters and the Associated Press taking note of the news. The trial operations of the Grand Egyptian Museum’s (GEM) will open up 12 halls in the main galleries to 4k visitors daily starting today.

A long-delayed opening: The USD 1 bn mega project has faced several delays, including the Covid pandemic.

** We have more on the story in the news well, above.

ALSO MAKING HEADLINES- Reuters ran a piece on Africa’s green energy projects in the works and the positive effects that expansion could have on African economies over the next few decades. The newswire said Egypt was considered a stand out nation in the continent in terms of the scale of its planned renewable projects, with the newswire pointing to our 1.4 GW of solar, 2.5 GW of wind, and 1.2 GW of nuclear projects currently under construction.

8

Also on our Radar

NRA to launch tender for the management of Bashteel’s garage

PRIVATIZATION-

Operation of Bashteel Station’s garage to soon be offered up to the private sector: The National Railway Authority’s investment arm MOT for Investments is set to launch a tender next month inviting private sector bids to manage and operate the multi-story parking garage at the newly launched Bashteel railway station, unnamed sources told Al Borsa. The parking garage will hold around 1k cars across five levels, including a basement and ground floor, with 18 EV charging spots, and a rooftop solar panel system.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

The details: The investor will be responsible for maintenance, cleaning, security, and utilities throughout the 10-15 year lease term, along with all applicable taxes, including any future VAT on the garage, according to the sources.

RENEWABLES-

Egypt will supply and install a 276.5 kw solar plant in Djibouti under a bilateral agreement signed between the two sides, according to a statement. The plant is part of efforts to support Djibouti’s sustainable development plans, and will be implemented alongside training programs to transfer local expertise to Djibouti.

ENERGY-

Foreign yachts to pay global rates for fuel: Foreign tourist yachts will be required to pay global market prices for fuel instead of the local subsidized rates, Asharq Business reports, citing an official document.

ICYMI: Yacht owners just got access to a raft of new incentives as the government works to attract more yacht tourism.

LOGISTICS-

Star Shine Shipping and Logistics will develop the first green logistics center in Alexandria’s Margham Industrial Zone, CEO Hossam El Deeb told Al Borsa. The EGP 50 mn first phase of the project should be operational in December, while the second phase is still in the fiscal study phase. The center will offer integrated logistics services including storage, packaging, container maintenance, and refrigerated container services.

DEBT-

#1- Orascom Development has secured a USD 155 mn loan from the International Finance Corporation to refinance existing debt and fund growth opportunities, particularly in its hotels in El Gouna, according to an press release (pdf). The loan will also help fund capital expenditures and renovation of its Movenpick Resort and Spa in El Gouna and other hotels.

The nitty gritty: The facility offers a grace period of 2.5 years and a tenure of 8.5 years, with semi-annual repayments starting late 2027.


#2- EBRD to invest USD 100 mn in AAIB’s sustainability bond program: The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development is set to invest some USD 100 mn in the Arab African International Bank’s (AAIB) USD 499 mn five-year sustainability bond program, the ERBD said in a project summary. The program marks the first sustainability bond ever issued in Egypt and will support the expansion of green projects.

FINANCIAL SERVICES-

B.TECH, Valu to offer more financing products: Consumer electronics retailer B.TECH to offer customers more financing options and exclusive offers under newly-inked cooperation protocol with homegrown fintech player Valu, according to a press release (pdf).

OUTSOURCING-

Advansys completes first phase of UTEC's offshore delivery center: Intro Group’s sustainable solutions arm Advansys has finalized the initial phase of the Saudi-based energy solutions provider United Transformers Electric Company’s (UTEC) new offshore delivery center in Cairo, according to a press release (pdf). The center aims to provide offshore services to businesses across the Middle East and Africa that will boost operational efficiency, cost savings, and scalable growth.

FINANCIAL EDUCATION-

Equiti Group and Sigma Capital have opened a new financial education center in New Cairo, offering workshops and expert-led sessions to boost financial literacy, according to a press release. The facility is now up and offering programs without charge.

What they said: “By collaborating with SIGMA Capital, we're bringing global expertise to a market that is driving growth. This hub will empower Egyptians to achieve financial independence,” said Equiti Group Cofounder Iskandar Najjar.

EXPANSION-

Dubai-based Khazna Data Centers plans to expand further into the Middle East and Asia. It is closing in on the location for a USD 250 mn data center in Egypt (set for completion in 2026) and is in advanced stages of construction in Saudi Arabia, CEO Hassan Al Naqbi told The National. Turkey and Southeast Asia are also on its radar.

9

PLANET FINANCE

IMF paints “worse than expected” picture of global debt outlook, passing USD 100 tn mark in 2024

Crossing the USD 100 tn mark: Global public debt is on track to surpass USD 100 tn by year’s end, representing 93% of global GDP, the IMF said in a blog ahead of the full release of its October 2024 Fiscal Monitor report, which is due to be published in full next week. Public debt is also set to exceed 100% by 2030, 10 percentage points above 2019 levels before the pandemic ushered in higher fiscal spending.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background and outside sources.)

Worst-case scenario: Slower economic growth, tighter borrowing conditions, fiscal “slippages,” and economic and political uncertainty could see global debt soaring to 115% of global GDP within three years, the IMF says. Higher uncertainty in major economies such as the US could also create ripple effects increasing borrowing costs for more vulnerable countries.

Driving the rise in fiscal debt: The IMF warns that, although two-thirds of countries are expected to see their public debt levels “stabilize or decline,” the debt outlook for many others may be “worse than expected.” Budget demands due to aging populations and healthcare needs, the green transition, and geopolitical uncertainty have “tilted” the political discourse towards greater fiscal spending, placing added pressures on state coffers. Countries also tend to be overly optimistic with regards to their debt forecasts and consistently underestimate future debt burdens.

Also a culprit? Unidentified debt: Countries are also facing a pileup of what the IMF calls “unidentified debt,” which the multilateral lender says has historically stood at 1-1.5% of GDP on average. That rate “increases sharply during periods of financial stress,” the IMF notes. Unidentified debt “stems from contingent liabilities and fiscal risks government face, of which most are related to losses in state-owned enterprises.”

REMEMBER- Emerging markets are also facing a wall of debt that many could struggle to repay, with a handful of countries at risk of defaulting over the next decade, S&P Global has said.

As inflation and interest rates come down, it’s time to get moving on fiscal improvements: Cooling inflation and the start of the global monetary easing cycle mean that economies are in a better position today to absorb adverse effects from budget cuts, the IMF says. Economies should make use of this window to roll out budget cuts while seeking a “judicious mix of people- and growth-focused fiscal measures” that balance the needs of low income individuals and economic output and growth, the multilateral lender said. Most economies will have to cut their budgets by about 3.8% of GDP over the next six years to see improvement, with China and the US requiring stronger measures to stabilize public debt.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are down in early trading this morning, mirroring declines yesterday on Wall Street. The Nikkei is down the most (-2.0%), but the Hang Seng, Shanghai Composite, and ASX are all in the red.

Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq futures are little changed in overnight trading, while the FTSE 100, Euro Stoxx 50, DAX, and CAC 40 all look set to open in the red later this morning.

EGX30

30,584

+1.0% (YTD: +22.9%)

USD (CBE)

Buy 48.48

Sell 48.62

USD (CIB)

Buy 48.49

Sell 48.59

Interest rates (CBE)

27.25% deposit

28.25% lending

Tadawul

12,002

+0.4% (YTD: +0.3%)

ADX

9,283

-0.2% (YTD: -3.1%)

DFM

4,470

+0.3% (YTD: +10.1%)

S&P 500

5,825

-0.6% (YTD: +22.4%)

FTSE 100

8,249

-0.5% (YTD: +6.7%)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,947

-1.9% (YTD: +9.4%)

Brent crude

USD 74.69

-3.6%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 2.50

+0.2%

Gold

USD 2,679

+0.5%

BTC

USD 66,580

+0.9% (YTD: +57.6%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 1.0% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 4.6 bn (14.7% above the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 22.9% YTD.

In the green: Juhayna (+7.7%), Edita (+7.1%), and E-finance (+5.2%).

In the red: Oriental Weavers (-1.5%), AMOC (-1.1%), and Credit Agricole (-1.1%).

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

Edita will pay out a dividend of EGP 0.571 per share on its 2023 earnings, after its board approved the move, according to a disclosure (pdf) to the EGX. The decision will now be passed onto the local snack maker's ordinary general assembly for the final greenlight.

10

HARDHAT

Could mixing green hydrogen into the country’s existing natural gas pipelines play an important part in Egypt's energy transition?

Green hydrogen blending to the rescue? Egypt’s energy needs and import bill are growing, while its renewable energy targets are fast approaching. Big-ticket solar, wind, and hydro projects are in the works to help address these issues, but some are also pointing towards green hydrogen blending as a potentially important part of our energy transition — with some important advantages.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

But first of all, what is blending exactly? Green hydrogen blending involves mixing hydrogen produced from clean energy sources — think wind, power, and hydro — with natural gas in existing natural gas pipes. It presents an attractive way to diversify and greenify a country’s energy mix that is both gradual and with little up-front costs as it makes use of existing infrastructure. As a clean fuel source, the more green hydrogen sent through the pipes means less emissions as it reduces the amount of natural gas in the mix.

Green hydrogen blending is a relatively new idea that only a few countries have experimented with: Germany and Norway five years ago achieved a green hydrogen blending ratio of around 28% in their respective gas networks — a ratio that it has since maintained. More recently, the UK announced that it has succeeded in implementing green hydrogen into their existing natural gas grid, with green hydrogen comprising around 20% — a figure they eventually want to bring up to 100%, Osama Fawzy, founder of hydrogen market intelligence platform H2lligence, told EnterpriseAM.

Egypt is a good candidate for blending, with a boatload of green hydrogen projects in the works: It’s almost a rarity nowadays if any investment conference in Egypt passes without the mention of green hydrogen. June’s Egypt-EU Investment conference inked EUR 63.8 bn worth of green hydrogen and ammonia investments out of a total EUR 67.7 bn worth of investments over the course of the conference. It’s not just our European and Gulf neighbors that are interested, with even China’s state-owned China Energy inking a framework agreement with the SCZone to set up a USD 6.75 bn green hydrogen plant.

And the government is hoping this is only the beginning: Egypt’s National Low CarbonHydrogen Strategy (pdf) lays out the country’s ambitious goals to potentially capture between 5-8% of the global hydrogen market by 2040. To achieve this, t he goal is to produce 3.2 mn tons of green hydrogen a year by 2030 and 9.2 mn tons by 2040. To achieve these goals — or even a fraction of them — we’re going to need to see USD bns worth of projects implemented over the next few years.

Remember: Green hydrogen is only one party of the puzzle, with the government planning to generate 42% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030, with the latest target being adding 28 GW of renewable energy to the country's energy mix over the next five to seven years

Our existing and extensive natural gas network is also a good match: Egypt’s natural gas network extends over around 100k kilometers, and delivers natural gas to over 14 mn homes, 25k commercial units, and 3k industrial units across the country, according to data from Wood Mackenzie. The total volume of natural gas transported through the national gas network amounted to 68 bn cbm in 2023, according to the Oil Ministry.

The priority should be to provide hydrogen-blended gas supplies to the industrial sector particularly for energy-intensive industries such as fertilizers, petrochemicals, iron and steel, and cement. In addition to needing a lot of energy, these industries are also hard to abate as it is difficult — or at least very costly — to run these operations with just electricity and not hydrocarbons.

This especially important with the EU’s impending carbon tax fast approaching: The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) — which is set to be fully implemented by 2026 — could significantly impact Egyptian exports, particularly those of energy-intensive industries. To avoid the carbon border tax and keep their products competitive, it is important that these industries look to things like green hydrogen blending to keep their carbon footprint — and in turn their carbon tax bill — as low as they can.

These industries are also particularly important to the national economy: Manufacturing, oil and gas, construction, and transportation are a big part of Egypt’s overall economic output, contributing up to 37% of GDP and representing about 28% of overall national employment, according to a report (pdf) from the National Bank of Kuwait. However, heavy industries currently consume 2.95 bn cf/d of natural gas, 17% less than the 3.54 bn cf/d required to operate them at 80-85% of capacity. Total gas production would need to rise to at least 6.8 bn cf/d for these factories to operate at higher levels without risking energy bottlenecks across the economy.

Green hydrogen blending would be good for the environment — and the public purse: Especially given Egypt’s rising natural gas needs in the summer, which have caused an increase in costly gas imports amid declining local production, blending could help keep the lights on and FX reserves intact, Fawzy told EnterpriseAM.

A big plus is that blending is a gradual process: Egypt could gradually start mixing green hydrogen into the existing natural gas grid until reaching the permitted rate based on the efficiency of the current natural gas pipeline network, Fawzy told Enterprise.

Work is already underway to implement green hydrogen into existing factories: Abu Qir Fertilizers intends to partially replace its existing factories to operate using green hydrogen instead of natural gas, Abu Qir Fertilizers Chairman Abed Ezz El Regal said previously, adding that the firm is in the final stages of signing an agreement with the companies that will carry out the replacement process.


Your top infrastructure stories for the week:

  • El Shahd is looking to invest USD 12 mn in a new sorting and freezing station for vegetables and fruits in partnership with Saudi investors. The project will be located in Sadat City with a storage capacity of 120k tons, targeting both Arab and international markets. (Al Mal)
  • Egypt and the Netherlands inked a water management and climate adaption MoU on the sidelines of Cairo Water Week. The agreement focuses on researching sand sources along the Nile Delta's maritime border and developing coastal adaptation strategies. (Statement)
  • Egypt and Greece are moving forward with plans to draft MoU to boost water management cooperation, focusing on large-scale desalination for food production, water recycling, climate adaptation strategies, and knowledge-sharing initiatives. (Statement)

2024

OCTOBER

13-17 October (Sunday-Thursday): Cairo Water Week, Water and Climate: Building Resilient Communities, Cairo, Egypt.

17 October (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

20-22 October (Sunday-Tuesday): Mediterranean Offshore Conference, Alexandria, Egypt.

21 October (Monday): BEBA working luncheon with Aviation Minister Sameh El Hefny, Cairo, Egypt.

21-25 October (Monday-Friday): The second iteration of the Global Forum for Population, Health, and Human Development.

22-24 October (Tuesday-Thursday: 16th Brics Summit, Kazan, Russia

21-27 October (Monday-Sunday): The World Bank and IMF annual meetings.

30 October (Wednesday): The CEO Women Conference, Cairo, Egypt.

NOVEMBER

4-8 November (Monday-Friday): World Urban Forum, Cairo, Egypt.

7-9 November (Thursday-Saturday): FinExpo Conference and Exhibition, Cairo.

11-15 November (Monday-Friday): Arab African Investment and International Cooperation Summit, Aswan, Egypt.

21 November (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

25-27 November (Monday-Wednesday): Annual Digital Nation Conference, Cairo, Egypt.

26-28 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Egypt Energy Show, Cairo, Egypt.

30 November (Saturday): Deadline to apply for renewable energy projects under the peer-to-peer (P2P) system.

DECEMBER

26 December (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2H 2024: Gov’t to launch the Cairo Ring Road BRT buses.

3Q 2024: Egyptian-Armenian Joint Committee.

First week of November: Egypt-Turkey high-level trade consultation mechanism.

November 2024: Egypt to host the World Urban Forum (WUF12).

End of 2024: The launch of the high-speed train line linking Ain Sokhna with Al Alamein City.

2025

7-10 April 2025 (Monday-Thursday) : EFG Hermes One on One conference, Dubai, UAE.

May 2025: Egyptian Exporters Association (Expolink) exhibition, Italy.

July 2025: The first operational trail of Egypt-KSA electricity interconnection line.

March 2025: Operation of phase one of the Amotope wind farm

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2Q 2025: Safaga Terminal 2 to start operations.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

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