From ratings and growth forecast cuts, to debit card blocks and frozen aid, it’s a “bad news” kind of day

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What We're Tracking Today

Two banks just stepped up overseas FX restrictions

If this is what a long weekend gets us, we’ll go on holiday no more… We have an exceptionally busy (and downbeat) issue for you all this morning. Among the big headlines:

Moody’s has downgraded us;
The IMF is pushing us hard on devaluation ;
The World Bank has downgraded its growth forecast for Egypt;
At least two banks have banned FX-denominated payments and withdrawals on EGP debit cards;
The Biden administration is looking for a way forward after a US senator blocked all of our rights-continent military assistance.

Oh, and Hamas and Israel are at war.

It was already set to be a busy week on the economy front as the IMF and World Bank annual meetings get underway tomorrow in Marrakech, with the next edition of the World Economic Outlook due out on Tuesday.

^^ We have the rundown on all of these stories and more in this morning’s issue, below.

** Our apologies for being late this morning, but we’ve had unexpected technical gremlins show up. We’ll be back to our customary dispatch time tomorrow morning.

WATCH THESE SPACES-

#1- Two banks just stepped up overseas FX restrictions — and more could follow: A number of banks have begun blocking customers from using EGP debit cards outside the country in a bid to preserve foreign currency. Reuters reported late last week that AAIB and Arab International Bank had notified customers that they would no longer be able to use their cards for FX withdrawals or payments. AAIB has also lowered the amounts that customers can withdraw and use for payments outside the country, according to Masrawy.

Watch this space: Other banks may put in place similar measures this week, Reuters reports, citing an unnamed source.

#2- Elab, Ethydco, EDC stake sales to happen before year end: The government will finalize the sale of minority stakes in Egyptian Ethylene and Derivatives Company (Ethydco), Egyptian Linear Alkyl Benzene (Elab), and Egyptian Drilling Company (EDC) to Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund ADQ before the end of the year, Oil Minister Tarek El Molla told Asharq Business (watch, runtime: 7:07).

Remember: An initial agreement was reached earlier this year for the fund to purchase 25-30% stakes in the three companies for USD 800 mn. The government was originally aiming to complete the sale before the end of 3Q 2023.

This means the Sidpec-Ethydco merger is on ice: The upcoming all-share merger between Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals (Sidpec) and Ethydco has been temporarily postponed until the ADQ acquisition is complete.

#3- ACUD is on the lookout for a global financial advisor: The Administrative Capital for Urban Development (ACUD) — the new administrative capital’s developer and manager — is looking to hire international financial advisors for its IPO that’s set to debut in the first half of 2024 on the EGX, ACUD Chairman Khaled Abbas told Asharq Business. Abbas said in an interview last month that the military-and-Housing Ministry-owned company is considering offering 5-10% of its shares to investors in a public share sale.

Remember: The company’s former chairman said last year that it had hired CI Capital to advise on the planned IPO.

#4- A big push for UAE investment: Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly, Finance Minister Minister Mohamed Maiit, CBE Governor Hassan Abdalla, and other senior officials met with UAE Investment Minister Mohamed Hassan Alsuwaidi on Tuesday, according to a cabinet statement. Madbouly highlighted government efforts to promote the private sector and encourage foreign direct investment, the statement added.

#5- Cabinet extends its approval for issuing panda ponds until the end of the fiscal yea r so the Finance Ministry is able to make the necessary preparations , cabinet said in a statement. The CNY-denominated panda bonds worth USD 500 mn could be a cornerstone of the Finance Ministry’s target of securing USD 1.5-2 bn in fresh funding by the end of 4Q 2023.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

Inflation figures are due out on Tuesday. Inflation clocked in at 37.4% in August, marking a third consecutive month of record-breaking highs.

HAPPENING IN THE HOUSE-

#1- Tax thresholds and expat car import scheme up for discussion: The House of Representatives’ budget committee will hold three meetings today to discuss amendments to raise the income tax exemption threshold by 25% for state employees to EGP 45k from EGP 36k and a bill that will allow the government to re-open its expat car import initiative for three months to raise much-needed FX.

#2- Emergency cost of living measures passed last week: The House Manpower Committee gave final approval to President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s new social support measures last Wednesday. The committee approved amendments to the 2022 law that would raise the exceptional cost of living allowance to EGP 600 for all state employees starting this month, double the EGP 300 paid out previously.

#3- Old rent top of the agenda: Newly elected chair of the House Housing Committee, Mohamed Attia El Fayoumi, told the media that amending the old rent law will be at the top of the committee’s agenda in the coming legislative season. President Abdel Fattah El Sisi urged lawmakers to address the old rent law last week, telling a conference in the new capital that it is “unacceptable” that property owners are unable to take economic advantage of what he said amount to 2 mn housing units across the country.

Senate committee elections last week saw only one change, with Ali Mahran elected chair of the Senate’s health committee. Presidential hopeful Hazem Omar was re-elected to his position as the chair of the Senate’s foreign relations committee after the Senate declined to discuss his resignation and clarified that there was nothing in the “constitution or the Senate’s internal bylaws [to] prevent Omar from standing in the upcoming presidential elections” as a member of the Senate.

ELECTION 2023-

El Sisi files running papers: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s campaign manager, Mahmoud Fawzy, has filed with the National Elections Authority (NEA) paperwork to allow El Sisi to run in December’s presidential poll, a statement said on Saturday. El Sisi – who also completed the required medical examinations on Saturday – has secured 424 endorsements from members of Parliament in addition to more than 1.1 mn citizen declarations of support, the statement added.

Remember: Candidates must receive no less than 25k endorsements from eligible citizens with the right to vote from at least 15 governorates, with a minimum of 1k supporters from each governorate. The NEA will accept election candidate applications until Saturday, 14 October.

Three other candidates could be joining El Sisi soon: The Wafd Party’s Abdel Sanad Yamama, the Egyptian Social Democratic Party’s Farid Zahran, and the Republican People’s Party Hazem Omar all secured the required endorsements from members of parliament earlier this week.

And two others are vying for a spot on the ballot: Former MP Ahmed Tantawi and head of the Dostour Party Gameela Ismail are also trying to collect signatures to secure a place in the election.

The timeline: Egyptians will go to the polls in December to elect a president for a new six-year term. Polls will be open at home on 10-12 December, while expats will vote on 1-3 December. The results will be announced on December 18, with a runoff in early 2024 if there is no clear winner.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Israel declares war on Hamas after militants kill hundreds of Israelis in shock attack: The Israeli military has launched retaliatory airstrikes in the Gaza Strip after Hamas gunmen killed at least 250 Israelis in a shock ground attack early on Saturday. More than 230 people in Gaza have died in the strikes in what international media is calling the deadliest day of violence in Israel since the 1973 war. Hamas also launched thousands of missiles at Israel and took dozens of hostages, prompting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to declare war on the militant group and vow to inflict an “unprecedented price.” (Associated Press | Reuters | Bloomberg | Financial Times | New York Times)

Global leaders are urging a halt to violence: Egypt, usually the chief mediator between the Palestinians and Israelis during conflict, alongside Saudi Arabia and Jordan, have called for an immediate halt to the clashes between Israeli and Palestinian forces. Egypt’s foreign ministry warned of “grave consequences” resulting from an escalation of violence. Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry has held various phone conversations with international and regional counterparts to investigate how to diffuse the tensions in the Gaza Strip, including the US, Russia, Germany, Turkey, the UAE, France, Spain and the EU, while President Abdel Fattah El Sisi spoke with his counterparts from France and Iraq.

Israel calls on Egypt to mediate hostage release: Israel has called on Egypt to help mediate the release of an undisclosed number of Israeli soldiers and citizens being held hostage by Hamas, reports the Wall Street Journal, citing Egyptian government officials.

NOBEL PEACE PRIZE-

The imprisoned Iranian activist Narges Mohammadi was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize on Friday for her work against the oppression of women in her country. Mohammadi has been convicted five times by the Iranian regime for her work and handed prison sentences totalling 31 years and 154 lashes. This year’s prize was dedicated to those behind Iran’s anti-morality protests that have been ongoing in the country for the past year, the Norwegian Nobel Committee said. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani condemned the prize as a “spiteful and politically motivated” move, reported Iranian state news agency Tasnim. (Reuters | Bloomberg | BBC)

Get ready to embark on a sensational journey of entertainment: From October through December, London will be illuminated by the brilliance of three remarkable events sponsored exclusively by Somabay. The laughter will be unstoppable at the uproarious Egyptian Trilogy comedy tour, followed by the enchanting Samar Tarik. Brace yourselves for a captivating finale with the mesmerizing Farah El Dibany. Somabay brings you an unforgettable trifecta of events that will leave you utterly captivated and eagerly anticipating each spectacular moment.

Egypt must devalue or risk “bleeding” reserves -IMF chief

Egypt needs to move forward with another currency devaluation or we will “bleed” reserves, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told Bloomberg in an interview late last week.

Remember: The IMF has delayed two reviews of our USD 3 bn assistance program after we failed to meet several conditions of the loan, including a commitment to implement a fully flexible exchange rate. Pundits expect the Central Bank of Egypt to allow the currency to float freely to get the Fund’s sign-off and unlock the next two tranches of the loan, though most analysts don’t expect this to happen before the presidential election in December.

The sooner this happens the better, says Georgieva: “The sooner we can reach an agreement on the road map for [EGP devaluation] the better … The issue here is very simple. Egypt would bleed reserves protecting the EGP and neither the country nor overall the environment is such that this is desirable. That’s a problem that has to be solved,” she said.

Should we expect more news in the coming week or two? Egypt and the Fund are “making progress” on a review, Georgieva said. “In the last couple of days there have been some constructive engagements … There will be more systematic work of our team with Egypt. So stay tuned. Let’s see what will come out in the next weeks.” Officials plan to meet during the IMF / World Bank annual meetings, which take place from 9-15 October, Cairo24 quotes House Planning Committee Chair Fakhri El Fiqi as saying.

The Fund will hold off on its review of the health of the our economy (otherwise known as an Article IV consultation) until after it has completed the reviews, Bloomberg reported Wednesday. “We are giving priority to engaging with the authorities on steps to complete the review under the Extended Fund Facility to support macroeconomic stabilization,” an IMF spokesperson told the news outlet last week. “Once the review is completed, we will schedule the Article IV consultation.

More economic reforms post elections: “The way markets have understood moving forward the presidential elections from 1Q 2024 to December is that the reforms initially earmarked for 2023 will wait till post elections,” Standard Chartered Bank economist Carla Slim told Asharq Business (watch, runtime: 8:25).

Further finance from the IMF? “Egypt could get an additional USD 1 bn from the IMF, while other market players believe that the IMF may revisit Egypt’s loan program, pushing it to USD 5-6 bn from its original USD 3 bn,” Slim said, echoing what economist Hany Geneina told us last week.

We’ve been gradually adding to our FX reserve stockpile: FX reserves have increased by more than USD 1.8 bn since mid-2022, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine precipitated heavy capital outflows and caused its FX stockpile to fall almost USD 8 bn. Reserves inched up USD 42 mn to USD 34.97 bn during September, according to central bank data released last week. Some USD 29.9 bn of our FX reserves is made up of short- (USD 14.9 bn) and long-term (USD 15 bn) central bank deposits made by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Libya.

But maintaining a stable exchange rate is increasing FX stress: The central bank has maintained the USD / EGP exchange rate at 30.9 since March, exacerbating the ongoing shortage of FX, Bloomberg says. FX liquidity in the banking system has continued to deteriorate this year, with net foreign liabilities among commercial banks widening to USD 16.5 bn in August.

Moody’s downgrades Egypt’s sovereign credit rating on rising debt fears

Moody’s has downgraded Egypt’s sovereign credit rating further into junk territory, citing worsening debt affordability and the impact of the FX crunch on our ability to meet our repayments. It’s the second time the ratings agency has taken action on Egypt this year, cutting its rating by one notch to Caa1 from B3 with a stable outlook, indicating “substantial risk.” This is seven rungs into junk territory and four above default.

What they said: “The downgrade reflects the government of Egypt's worsening debt affordability trend and the persistence of foreign currency shortages in the face of increasing external debt service payments over the next two years, amid increasingly constrained policy options to rebalance the economy without exacerbating social risk,” the rating agency wrote.

Remember: We will need to marshal some USD 29.2 bn to meet our debt-service obligations in 2024, according to an Enterprise review of central bank figures out last week. That’s equal to almost a fifth of our total external debt and almost 85% of our USD 34.97 bn stockpile of foreign reserves.

Inflows will come if Egypt perseveres with reforms, says Moody’s: The rating agency expects the Madbouly government will eventually unlock funding from the USD 3 bn IMF assistance program and attract inflows from the Gulf. Progress on the asset sale program and regulatory reforms — such as lifting tax exemptions on some state companies — as well as expected currency flexibility will open the door to further financial support and bolster FX reserves.

FinMin responds: In a statement, Finance Minister Mohamed Maait emphasized the government’s progress on reforms and pledged to do more. He attributed the ongoing economic problems to the covid-19 pandemic and the spillover effects from the war in Ukraine.

This the second time Moody’s has lowered Egypt’s credit rating this year: The rating agency in February cut its rating to B3 from B2, and changed its outlook to stable from negative.

S&P + Fitch reviews coming soon: Fitch earlier this year lowered its rating on Egyptian debt to B, two notches above Moody’s grade, with a negative outlook. S&P Global Ratings is the only of the big three rating agencies not to have downgraded Egypt this year, though it did change its outlook to negative in April. S&P will conduct its next review on 20 October and it’s Fitch’s turn two weeks later on 3 November, according to Reuters.

MARKET REAX-

Egyptian debt was volatile in trading on Friday: Egypt’s USD-denominated bonds plunged in early trading on Friday before paring much of their losses later in the session. Some of the government’s bonds fell as much as 3 cents to lows not seen since May, before rebounding to leave the majority down by just 0.2-0.5 US cents, according to Reuters.

There will be less appetite for Egypt’s FX debt among some investors: The downgrade now puts Egyptian bonds out of reach of some institutional investors such as pension funds, who usually refuse to take on such high risk, according to Bloomberg.

Why the late buying activity? “Egypt was already trading like a CCC credit before the downgrade,” one analyst told the business news information outlet. “This doesn’t change the default probabilities over the next 12 months so investors view it as a buying opportunity.”

Don’t be surprised to see the sell-off continue in the coming days and weeks: “Given the little progress on the IMF program review front, FX pressures and the upcoming elections along with the recent global risk off environment, we believe Egypt sovereign bonds will continue to remain under pressure,” JPMorgan analysts said in a note picked up by Reuters.

World Bank downgrades Egypt growth outlook + says MENA is on an “unacceptably low” growth path

The World Bank sees Egypt’s growth slowing in the state’s 2023-2024 fiscal year. That comes as the region is growing a whole lot slower, it said in its latest MENA economic update (pdf). Here’s how it all breaks down:

EGYPT-

The World Bank has downgraded its Egypt growth forecast as rising borrowing costs and heightened inflation squeeze economic activity. The lender expects economic growth to slow to 3.7% in the current fiscal year from a projected 4.2% in FY 2022-2023, 0.3 percentage points lower than its previous forecast in June, according to its latest .

The rationale: A series of currency devaluations has triggered a run of record inflation, hitting private-sector business activity and consumer demand. Meanwhile, a rapid rise in borrowing costs is leaving businesses without access to cheap credit, constraining economic activity. The Central Bank of Egypt has more than doubled policy rates since March in an attempt to rein in inflation.

This is the second time the lender has cut its forecast this year: The Bank lowered its FY 2023-2024 growth forecast from 4.8% to 4% in June.

The Bank isn’t the only one to recently lower its growth expectations:

EBRD: 4.5% growth in 2024 (down 0.7 percentage points)
IMF: 4.1% in 2024(down 0.9 percentage points)
Morgan Stanley: 4.2% in 2023-2024(down 0.8 percentage points)

The World Bank sees our budget deficit widening to 7.1% of GDP this fiscal year from an expected 6.0% last year. The Finance Ministry is currently penciling in a 6.9% deficit this year. It sees the current account balance will remain in deficit at 2.8% of GDP this year.

FROM THE REGION-

Our neighbors are also in for a sharp slowdown: The World Bank expects regional growth to slump to 1.9% in 2023 from 6% last year, thanks to the ongoing voluntary cuts in oil output, the global high interest rate environment, and a rise in living costs. “ MENA continues to be on an unacceptably low growth path,” said Ferid Belhaj, the World Bank vice president for the MENA region, warning about the impact on youth unemployment.

Oil exporters are driving the slowdown: In reversal of a 2022 trend, growth in regional oil exporters is forecasted to decelerate to just 1.5% this year from 6.2% in 2022. The slowdown will be even more pronounced in the GCC, which will record 1% growth in 2023 compared to 7.3% last year.

Remember: GCC states saw their economies boom in 2022 on the back of surging oil and gas prices. This year, a combination of lower oil prices and oil supply cuts has caused economic growth to slow significantly.

KSA will be the hardest hit of the bunch: The Bank expects the Saudi economy to contract by 0.9% this year on the back of the deep voluntary oil production cuts, which it recently extended through to the end of the year in a bid to prop up global oil prices. Lower oil revenues will push government finances into the red, with the Bank forecasting a 1.5% / GDP budget deficit this year compared to 2022’s 2.6% surplus.

The slump should be short-lived: The Saudi economy is expected to return to growth in 2024, expanding at a 4.1% clip.

A US senator just blocked all of Egypt’s human rights-contingent military aid

Egypt will receive less than USD 1 bn in US military aid this year: The new chairman of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Ben Cardin (Democrat), has withheld the entire USD 320 mn of human rights-contingent military aid destined for Egypt following the indictment of previous chair Senator Bob Menendez over allegedly accepting bribes to covertly aid the country. “My hold on current funds will remain until specific human rights progress is made,” he said in a statement on Tuesday.

Remember: Some USD 320 mn of the USD 1.3 bn the US gives to Egypt in military aid each year is contingent on our making improvements in our rights record. Of that, USD 85 mn is tied to releasing political prisoners, ensuring due process, and preventing the intimidation of US citizens. The other USD 235 mn is linked to other democracy and human rights requirements and can be overruled by the government on national security grounds.

Cairo was due to receive three-quarters of the sum: The Biden administration last month decided to allow Egypt to receive USD 235 mn of the aid, withholding the remaining USD 85 mn on human rights concerns.

The Biden administration is trying to find a workaround: “We’re going to continue to engage closely with not only the Egyptian government, but also Congress, about how these funds will be used,” a State Department spokesperson told reporters on Wednesday.

ALSO- European Parliament weighs in on Egypt election: European MPs last week called on Egypt to hold “credible, free and fair elections” and accused authorities of harassing the campaign staff of leftist presidential hopeful Ahmed El Tantawy. In a resolution adopted on Wednesday, the European Parliament also called for the release of opposition figure and high-profile publisher Hisham Kassem, who was last month sentenced to six months in jail for allegedly insulting a former minister and verbally assaulting policemen.

Egyptian MPs weren’t happy: In a statement, the House accused the Europeans of an “unjustified and desperate” attempt to interfere in the election, and called the resolution “lacking credibility and neutrality.” It said that the call to release Kassem was an “objectionable attempt to pressure the Egyptian judiciary” and denied that members of Tantawy’s campaign had been arrested.

Egypt generates current account surplus in 4Q as imports fall, tourism revenues rise

Egypt generated a current account surplus in 4Q 2022-23 on the back of falling imports and rising tourism and Suez Canal revenues, according to Enterprise calculations of central bank figures (pdf) released last week. The current account turned to a USD 560 mn surplus during the April-June quarter, compared to a USD 3.0 bn deficit in 4Q 2021-22 and a USD 3.5 bn deficit in the previous quarter.

For the year: The current account deficit for the entire fiscal year narrowed more than 70% to USD 4.7 bn from USD 16.6 bn in FY 2021-22 aided by the import squeeze and record tourism and Suez Canal revenues.

Surpluses are still a bit of a rarity for us: This year’s Q4 current account figures are only the second time we’ve achieved a quarterly surplus since 2014. The other instance was in 2Q of this year when we managed to achieve a USD 1.4 bn surplus.

Here’s what happened:

#1- Imports continued to decline: Imports declined for the fifth consecutive quarter to hit their lowest level since the covid-19 pandemic in 2020 as the FX shortage continued to make life difficult for importers. Imports fell 25% to USD 16.2 bn from USD 21.3 bn in 4Q 2021-22, primarily due to the non-oil sector. This resulted in the trade deficit narrowing to USD 7.6 bn from USD 9.9 bn a year ago.

#2- The tourism boom: Tourism revenues rose more than 30% y-o-y to USD 3.3 bn in 4Q. Across the year, tourism revenues jumped 27% to hit a record USD 13.6 bn, up from USD 10.7 bn in the fiscal year prior.

#3- Suez Canal receipts contributed: Suez Canal revenues rose by a third y-o-y to USD 2.5 bn during the quarter. For the year, the canal’s revenues jumped 25% to hit a record USD 8.8 bn from USD 7.0 bn t5he year before.

On a less positive note:

Despite gov’t efforts , FDI continued to fall: Foreign direct investment recorded its lowest quarterly figure this year, falling to USD 2.1 bn from USD 2.2 bn in 3Q. Nevertheless, the quarterly figure was more than 30% higher than 4Q 2021-22.
Exports slump: Exports weakened to USD 8.6 bn from USD 11.4 bn a year earlier and USD 9.6 bn the previous quarter. The decline was driven by a fall in oil and gas exports, while non-oil exports were largely flat at USD 6.5 bn.
Remittances declined again: Remittances hit their lowest level since FY 2016-17 amid the continued currency uncertainty. Some USD 4.6 bn was sent home from Egyptian expats during 4Q, down from USD 8.3 bn a year earlier.
Portfolio flows: Investors continued to pull capital from financial assets, though the rate of outflows slowed to its lowest level this year. Egypt recorded USD 303.3 mn of portfolio outflows during the quarter compared to USD 3.7 bn of outflows in the same quarter last year.

Egypt, Maersk sign green methanol framework agreement

One step closer to Egypt-made green methanol: Egypt signed a framework agreement on Wednesday with Maersk’s new green methanol company C2X to produce the green fuel in the Suez Canal Economic Zone, according to a statement. The first phase of the project will require USD 3 bn of investment and will produce 300k tons of green methanol per year. The company expects to increase capacity to 1 mn tons a year by the final phase of the project.

Remember: The Danish shipping giant established C2X in September to produce and sell green methanol to the global shipping industry. The firm aims to reach an annual production output of over 3 mn tons by 2030 by pursuing large-scale green methanol projects in Egypt and the port of Huelva in Spain, among several other planned locations. The company is 20% owned by AP Moller-Maersk, with the majority 80% stake held by its parent company AP Moller Holding.

Maersk has already been laying the groundwork: The company had signed a preliminary agreement with the government during the COP27 climate summit last year to invest as much as USD 15 bn to set up clean fuel projects in Egypt. It is reportedly in talks to purchase half of the government’s 545-MW Zafarana wind farm to help power green fuels production. In May, the Egyptian cabinet also approved requests by Norwegian renewables producer Scatec and Maersk to allocate a piece of land in the Gulf of Suez for a 320-MW wind farm to power their green fuel projects.

Egypt’s Israeli gas imports have risen 40% since January 2021

We’re importing more gas from Israel: Egypt’s gas imports from Israel are expected to increase by 30% over the “coming period,” Oil Minister Tarek El Molla told Asharq Business (watch, runtime: 7:07) on the sidelines of the Adipec expo in Abu Dhabi last week. Gas imports from Israel are used to supply our two LNG plants, where gas is liquefied for re-export to Europe, El Molla cited the latter for boosting our gas imports from Israel.

Imports jumped in 1H 2023: Egypt’s gas imports from Israel rose 21.5% y-o-y to 903 mn cubic feet per day (cf/d) on average in 1H 2023. Israeli gas imports could rise as high as 1.05 bn cf/d this month due to falling seasonal demand in Israel.

More imports, less exports: Egypt is bracing for its LNG exports to halve this year alongside a drop in revenues from LNG exports, El Molla told Sky News Arabia, saying that he expects our LNG exports to drop to 4 mn tons from the 8 mn tons recorded last year. Egypt exported some 3 mn tons of LNG during the first half of the year.

Remember: We have exported hardly any LNG over the summer months due to higher domestic consumption and lower gas production. The government’s decision to ration consumption during a seasonal spike in demand, combined with production falling to three-year lows, has put pressure on the electricity grid, forcing the government to introduce rolling blackouts since July. “We will resume LNG exports this month, confirming our presence in the market and our ability to export,” he told Sky.

Where does the Gaza Marine gas development stand? A consortium of unnamed Egyptian private companies led by Egypt’s state-owned EGAS will ink the final agreement with the Palestinian Authority to develop the Gaza Marine gas field in “a very short period,” El Molla said. Israel gave its preliminary approval to the development of a gas field off the Gaza coast in June. The agreement to develop the field was expected to be inked between EGAS and the Palestine Investment Fund back in 1Q 2023.

Khalil El Bawab named Beltone’s CEO for local and regional markets

Beltone Financial has appointed Khalil El Bawab (LinkedIn) as its CEO for local and regional markets, where he will lead asset management, brokerage and wealth management, El Bawab told Enterprise. El Bawab joins Beltone after serving as the CEO and managing director of Misr Capital for five years. He has over 25 years of experience in investment banking and asset management and has held non-executive positions on the boards of BM Lease and Misr Life Ins. Takaful and as an executive committee member of the Egyptian Investment Management Association.

Violence in Israel + Gaza, presidential election dominates Egypt’s talk shows

War in Israel and Gaza dominated last night’s coverage: Hamas’ attack on Israel yesterday received blanket coverage across the airwaves. Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem told Amr Adib on El Hekaya that the attack came in response to the Israeli authorities' occupation of Palestinian land and displacement of Palestinian people (watch, runtime: 12:07). Mahmoud Al Habbash, advisor to the Palestinian president, appeared on Mohamed Sherdy’s Al Hayah Al Youm to discuss the latest developments of the conflict (watch, runtime: 6:04).

“We are facing difficult days,” said Egyptian foreign ministry spokesperson Ahmed Abu Zeid during an interview with Osama Kamal on Masaa DMC (watch, runtime: 7:42), during which he detailed Egypt’s efforts alongside the international community to de-escalate the ongoing violence.

An unexpected attack: The operation “surprised Israeli intelligence forces, arriving at an unforeseen moment,” Kelma Akhira’s Lamees El Hadidi said, before debating whether the war could pull in actors from Lebanon and Syria (watch, runtime: 4:09 | 6:56). The attack received widespread coverage from El Hekaya (watch, runtime: 6:59), Al Hayah Al Youm (watch, runtime: 2:45) and Masaa DMC (watch, runtime: 5:57).

Election 2023: Talk about the December presidential poll was again prominent on last night’s talk shows. A press conference by Sisi campaign chairman Mahmoud Fawzy got airtime from Ahmed Moussa on Ala Masouleety (watch, runtime: 36:28), as well as from El Hadidi on Kelma Akhira (watch, runtime: 33:26) and Sherdy on Al Hayah Al Youm (watch, runtime: 4:04).

Other candidates could be on the way: Head of the Dostour Party Gameela Ismail has received the required number of recommendations to join the ballot, while former MP Ahmed Tantawi is still trying to collect the requisite signatures, Adib added (watch, runtime: 3:24).

The House of Representatives’ response to the Europea n Parliament’s statement regarding presidential elections in Egypt also got screen time from Ala Masouleety (watch, runtime: 4:06 | 13:06), Al Hayah Al Youm (watch, runtime: 29:38) and Masaa DMC (watch, runtime: 2:08). We have more in the news well above.

The economy was near the bottom of the priority list last night:

FX needed before a devaluation: A future devaluation of the EGP without a stock of foreign exchange on hand will only cause harm and raise prices, ِAmr Adib said, calling on policymakers to address the root causes of our current problem (watch, runtime: 5:33).
Moody has lowered our credit rating: Fakhry El Fiqi, the new head of the House’s Planning and Budgeting Committee told Masaa DMC, that Moody’s downgrading of Egypt’s credit rating is “not surprising.” (watch, runtime: 7:26). We have more in the news well above.

The election, the economy and US military aid are dominating the conversation on Egypt in the foreign press

It’s a busy morning for Egypt in the international press with two main themes dominating — December’s presidential election and soaring inflation. The National, AFP, Financial Times, BBC, DW, and France24 are all out with pieces looking into the elections, while the Economist, Guardian, and Reuters are hyperfixed on soaring inflation.

Military aid blocked: The decision by the new chairman of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee to block the remaining USD 235 mn of our human rights-linked military aid also got a lot of attention in the international press. We have the full story in this morning’s Diplomacy section, above. (Reuters | AFP | Bloomberg | CNN)

Hisham Kassem to remain in jail: Several outlets are covering yesterday’s court ruling that upheld the six-month jail term given to prominent newspaper publisher and political activist Hisham Kassem last month. (Associated Press | AFP)

UAE non-oil business activity rises in September

UAE PMI rebounds: The UAE’s non-oil private sector activity accelerated in September on the back of surging demand and a rise in output, according to S&P Global’s latest PMI figures (pdf) out last week. The PMI rose to 56.7 from 55.0 during the month, driven by new orders which accelerated at their fastest pace since June 2019, and business confidence which reached its highest level since March 2020.

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S&P 500	4,309	+1.2% (YTD: +12.2%)
FTSE 100	7,495	+0.6% (YTD: +0.6%)
Euro Stoxx 50	4,144	+1.1% (YTD: +9.3%)
Brent crude	USD 84.58	+0.6%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.34	+5.4%
Gold	USD 1,845.20	+0.7%
BTC	USD 27,935	-0.2% (YTD: +68.9%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 0.8% at Wednesday’s close on turnover of EGP 1.51 bn (30.3% below the 90-day average). International investors were net buyers. The index is up 36.1% YTD.

In the green: Alexandria Mineral Oils Company (+5.8%), Credit Agricole Egypt (+5.2%) and Beltone Financial Holding (+4.7%).

In the red: Eastern Company (-2.2%), Oriental Weavers (-1.6%) and Juhayna Food Industries (-1.3%).

CALENDAR

OCTOBER

9 October (Monday): The Narrative PR Summit, Somabay Red Sea.

9-11 October (Monday-Wednesday): Arabs Savings and Financial Literacy Conference, Four Seasons Hotel.

9-15 October (Monday - Sunday): The World Bank and IMF annual meetings in Marrakech, Morocco.

10-12 October (Tuesday-Thursday) Ceramica Expo, Cairo International Convention Center.

12 October (Thursday): Egyptian-Italian Business Forum.

13 October- 20 October (Friday-Friday): The sixth edition of El Gouna Film Festival (GFF).

Late October-14 November: 3Q2023 earnings season.

15 October (Sunday): House to reconvene.

15-17 October (Sunday-Tuesday): Egypt Automotive Aftermarket Exhibition, Cairo International Convention Center.

20 October (Friday): S&P Global Ratings to review Egypt’s sovereign credit rating.

20 October (Friday): Deadline for applying for Dar Venture’s Dare incubator.

26 October (Thursday): Daylight saving time ends.

27 October (Friday): Deadline for bidding in tender for five solar plants on north coast.

29-31 October (Sunday-Tuesday): Egypt Energy, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

29 October - 2 November (Sunday- Thursday): Cairo Water Week.

30-31 October (Monday-Tuesday): Intelligent Cities Exhibition and Conference, Dusit Thani LakeView, Cairo.

30-31 October (Monday-Tuesday): Global Business School Network (GBSN), American University of Cairo.

31 October - 1 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

Signposted to happen some time in October:

Deadline for ins. providers to link their databases with the FRA
Egyptian-Jordanian Business Council, Amman, Jordan
Gov’t expects to finalize sale of Gabal El Zeit wind plant
October or November: Gov’t expects to finalize stake sale for military-owned fuel retailer Wataniya
Saudi and Egyptian officials will meet to follow up on the project to connect the national power grids of Egypt and Saudi Arabia

NOVEMBER

2 November (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

3 November (Friday): Fitch to review Egypt’s sovereign credit rating.

8 November (Wednesday): Turkish-Arab Economic Forum 2023, Istanbul.

9-15 November (Thursday-Wednesday): Intra-African Trade Fair, Cairo.

14-15 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): Destination Africa, Royal Maxim Palace Kempinski Hotel.

15-24 November (Wednesday-Friday): Cairo International Film Festival, Cairo.

19-22 November (Sunday-Wednesday): Cairo ICT, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

22 November (Wednesday): Deadline to apply to FRA for credit rating license.

23 November (Thursday): Worldview Education Fair, Cairo. (Register here)

30 November-12 December (Thursday-Tuesday): COP28, Dubai.

DECEMBER

1-3 December (Friday-Sunday): Egyptian expats vote in the presidential election.

4-7 December (Monday-Thursday): Egypt Defence Expo, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

9-15 December (Saturday-Friday) :The Engineering Export Council of Egypt’strade mission to Saudi Arabia.

10-11 December (Sunday-Monday): eGlobe Expo, St. Regis Almasa Hotel, Cairo.

10-12 December (Sunday-Tuesday): Voting in presidential election takes place in Egypt.

12-13 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

12-14 December (Tuesday-Thursday): Food Africa Expo, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

20 December (Wednesday): End of sugar export ban.

21 December (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

Signposted to happen sometime in December:

Gov’t expects to finalize sale of a stake in military-owned bottled drinks company Safi
Gov’t expects to finalize sale of Zafarana wind farm

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2023: The inauguration of the Grand Egyptian Museum.

2H 2023: Egyptian government expected to sign agreements with a consultant for the EuroAfrica electricity interconnector.

2H 2023: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expected to hold a summit.

3Q 2023: E-Finance to launch in Saudi Arabia.

4Q 2023: EGX to launch its new futures exchange.

4Q 2023: EGX to launch a shariah-compliant index.

End of 2023: A Developments’ first phase of the Lazoghly development completed.

2024: Standard Chartered Bank to open a branch in Egypt.

25 February 2024 (Sunday): Deadline for bidders for oil and gas expansion in the 23 new regions.

June 2024: Gov’t expects to finalize sale of Beni Suef combined-cycle power plant.

1H 2024: Gov’t expects to finalize sale of four water desalination plants.

End of 2024: The launch of the high-speed train line linking Ain Sokhna with Al Alamein City.

November 2024: Egypt to host the 12th session of the World Urban Forum (WUF12).

2Q 2025: Safaga Terminal 2 to start operations.

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