** #1 An Asian bond issuance looks increasingly in the cards, with Finance Minister Mohamed Maait reporting “very positive” feedback from his meetings with Asian investors in Seoul last week, where the ministry kicked off its nondeal roadshow on the continent to test appetite for the planned USD 5 bn eurobond issuance. Egypt has been “advised to try to issue in Asia,” Maait told Reuters yesterday, adding Egypt could tap debt markets with an offering in a currency other than the USD or EUR and that a decision would be made “in the near future.” The Finance Ministry embarked its pan-Asian roadshow last week amid talk that ‘samurai’ and ‘panda’ bonds were being considered. The roadshow should take officials next to Singapore, Hong Kong, China and Japan. Sources had told us that the government is planning to issue as much as USD 20 bn in foreign-currency denominated bonds between now and 2022 as it looks towards diversifying its sources of funding. The Madbouly government aims to strike a balance between foreign currency and interest rate risks by balancing its local-currency and foreign-currency borrowing.
Also from the pan-Asia roadshow: Maait, who was in Bali for the IMF and World Bank annual meetings, sat down with representatives of ratings agency Fitch, as well as executives from Citigroup, to discuss the Madbouly government’s ongoing economic reform program, Egypt’s fiscal policy, and the impact of the emerging markets selloff on investor appetite for Egyptian debt. The minister made the same solid pitch at an EFG Hermes investors call on Wednesday.
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** #2 Central bank enters USD 3.8 bn repo agreement with int’l banks: The central bank is entering into a new USD 3.8 bn repurchase transaction with a consortium of global banks, allowing the CBE to “boost its foreign-currency stockpile at a time when an emerging-market selloff is spooking investors.”
The details: Consortium members including Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, First Abu Dhabi Bank, HSBC, ICBC Standard Bank, JP Morgan Securities, Natixis and Nomura International. “The repurchase transaction will settle on 19 November 2018, following the CBE repayment of the total sum of USD 3.1 bn, on 15 November 2018, honoring the terms of the previous repurchase transaction transacted in November 2017, with a consortium of international banks,” the CBE said in a statement on Thursday (pdf). “The transaction aims to achieve CBE’s objective of enhancing its liability management by extending the duration of its debt structure,” the statement said.
The transaction is a vote of confidence, the CBE writes, reflecting “the continued strong affirmation and vote of confidence by the international market in the success of the home-grown economic reform program during the past years.”
Background: The USD 3.1 bn agreement in 2017 was an extension to the USD 2 bn in repo funding that was secured in November 2016 against USD-denominated sovereign bonds as part of funding required to secure the USD 12 bn IMF Extended Fund Facility. Bloomberg and Reutersboth have the story.
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** #3 Tarek Amer says policymakers must consider “community impact” of their decisions: Authorities must consider the political and community impact of changes in monetary policy, CBE Governor Tarek Amer said on Thursday at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bali. “Policymakers have to have the sense of the market,” Amer said, according to Bloomberg. “At the end of the day these decisions are very political. … You have to have an understanding of the psychology of your community. You can’t be in closed-doors and think raising interest rates is good, but you don’t know how the community is going to take that.’’ Bloomberg writes that the remarks offered a “rare glimpse into the concerns facing the central bank as it decides whether to reduce interest rates to ease the budget deficit and boost growth.”
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** #5 FT says global banks love Egypt, but interest rates remain a thorny issue: In a climate in which emerging market economies are more than ever competing for scarce global capital, “the latest focus of bankers’ attention is Egypt,” writes Nicholas Megaw for the FT. The economic reform program, and the stability it has brought, has drawn a number of foreign banks after a period where banks, including Citi, Société Générale and BNP Paribas, had closed up shop in the country. “It’s a good sign because this push from different international banks and entities increases the potential of foreign investor participation in the market,” says our friend Mohamed Ebeid, co-CEO for investment banking at EFG Hermes. Karim Tannir, JPMorgan’s head of investment banking for Middle East and North Africa, sees “a lot of potential in Egypt,” saying, “the country is embarking on several reform initiatives, including privatization which we expect to be an important theme in the coming years.”
Retail banking is the key: While the short-term prizes on offer for corporate and investment banks are not expected to be as large as in Saudi Arabia, Egypt’s large population also creates opportunities in retail banking, says Julien Faye, head of financial services for Middle East and north Africa at Bain. He credits in part the CBE’s financial inclusion initiative for those opportunities. Those who have stayed the course in Egypt during trying times, including QNB Al Ahly, say they are benefiting from the economic turnaround the growth of the retail banking sector.
Interest rates remain a thorny issue: The high interest rate environment has been great for bankers who have opened their wallets to lend to the government, notes Cairo bureau chief Heba Saleh in another feature appearing in the Arab World Banking and Finance package — but it’s not been good for private-sector borrowers looking to finance capex or operating expenses, she notes. Thanks largely to the economic turnaround, private-sector lending looks like it could be on the upswing: CIB Chief Operating Officer Mohamed Sultan noted that loans to business increased by around 13% in 1H2018. While these have mostly been for working capital, there is an uptick in demand: “Factories which operated at 50-60% capacity last year are now at 70-80%,” he says. “For capex lending to come back they need to be operating at 90% capacity, and interest rates should come down,” he noted.
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** #6 World Bank gives Egypt some love at Bali meeting: Egypt’s successful reform story was one of four that received praise from World Bank President Jim Yong Kim during the opening session of the World Bank’s annual meeting in Bali on Friday, the Investment Ministry said in a statement (pdf). The ministry said Kim reserved particular praise for the government’s reduction of subsidies and the redirection of funds towards health, education, and other avenues of human capital development — which was a topic of discussion in a separate roundtable yesterday (pdf) attended by Investment and International Cooperation Minister Sahar Nasr.
Egypt, World Bank sign pact on USD 300 mn in funding for rural sanitation projects in Egypt. The funding is earmarked to ongoing projects in Sharqiya, Daqahliyah, Damietta, Gharbiya, and Monofiya under an initiative that was launched in 2015, the Investment Ministry said in statement from Bali.
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EXCLUSIVE- Egypt in advanced talks on wheat hedge: Egypt is currently in “serious” negotiations with the National Bank of Abu Dhabi (NBAD) and a leading Kuwaiti lender about a wheat hedge that would insulate the treasury from fluctuations in global prices, a top aide to Supply Minister Ibrahim El Ashmawy told Enterprise. The aide declined to name the Kuwaiti bank, but suggested the wheat hedge could be a trial balloon for a wider program to hedge against rises the prices of key commodities Egypt imports. The news comes as the Finance Ministry is reportedly mulling a fuel hedge, although remarks by Finance Minister Mohamed Maait last week that downplayed the budgetary impact of the rising price of oil suggest that could be on the back burner for now.
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Was the presidency more aggressive on subsidy cuts than the oil ministry? President Abdel Fattah El Sisi reportedly said on Thursday that Oil Minister Tarek El Molla initially proposed a more modest cut to fuel subsidies and was pushed by the president to be more aggressive, according to Al Mal. In a speech on Thursday for the Armed Forces’ culture day, El Sisi said that El Molla had proposed an EGP 125 bn subsidy bill. Fuel subsidy spending in FY2018-19 is worth EGP 89 bn. El Sisi’s stance appears to have been particularly prescient in light of the spike in global oil prices, which has already impacted Egypt’s spending on fuel subsidies. Oil at USD 85/bbl adds EGP 1.70-3.80 per liter to the state's subsidy bill, sources tell Al Shorouk.
El Sisi also pushed for the extradition of terrorist Hisham El Ashmawy, who is wanted for masterminding attacks against security forces, according to the Associated Press. The former special forces officer was recently captured in Libya.
The speech has been widely covered by the foreign press. Xinhua notedEl Sisi’s description of the 25 January uprising as the "wrong medicine for the wrong diagnosis." The Israeli press, meanwhile, was particularly fond of El Sisi’s car metaphors to describe the 1973 war. The president called Israel a Mercedes, Ynet reports, and Egypt a SEAT to highlight how much of an underdog Egypt was.
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** #7 INVESTMENT WATCH- Egypt in line for a chunk of Dragon Oil’s USD 500 mn regional investment budget? Emirates National Oil Company (ENOC) subsidiary Dragon Oil is planning to invest about USD 500 mn next year in oil and gas assets as part of an international expansion strategy to boost its production to 300k bbl/d of oil by 2025, CEO Ali Rashid Al Jarwan told Reuters. The company is eyeing new opportunities in Turkmenistan, North Africa and Iraq, Al Jarwan said. “We are looking at Africa mainly, especially North Africa.” Dragon already has exploration blocks in Egypt, and ENOC Group CEO Saif Al Falasi said back in February that “Investing in Egypt’s market, the third largest in Africa, complements our business strategy to go beyond the UAE and our commitment to industry-leading performance.”
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M&A WATCH- SIDPEC acquires 20% stake in local chemicals company: Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals Company (SIDPEC) has entered into a preliminary agreement to acquire 20% of Solvay Alexandria Sodium Carbonate (CCI), according to a domestic media report citing unnamed company sources. SIDPEC had said last week that it intends to acquire a local petchem company, but had not offered any other details on the transaction.
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Uber and Careem drivers call for a strike over gov’t foot-dragging on exec regs? Drivers at ride-hailing companies Uber and Careem called on social media for a strike today to protest the delay in the issuance of the executive regulations that are set to govern the Ride-Hailing Apps Act, Al Mal reports. Drivers claim that they are still being forced to pay arbitrary fines for using their private fines to offer livery service. The regulations for the Ride-Hailing Apps Act — which were expected to beissued last month — are meant to outline licensing requirements and fees for ride-hailing companies. The act, which was ratified law in June, will require companies to pay up to EGP 30 mn for a five-year operating license, making a 25% down-payment and settling the rest in installments over the licensing period.
Speaking of Uber and Careem, the date for the ride-hailing companies’ appeal against their shutdown verdict has been set for 1 December, the newspaper also says.White cab drivers, who had filed and won a court case earlier this year ordering the shutdown of ride-hailing companies, are reportedly planning to appear in more frequent numbers on the streets today to take advantage of the strike.
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Sphinx airport soft launch tomorrow: Sphinx International Airport in Giza will begin trial runs and a soft launch on Monday, Civil Aviation Minister Younis El Masry said in a presser on Thursday, according to Al Shorouk. The airport will be operating at full capacity by 2020, El Masry noted, according to the newspaper.
El Masry denies UK’s Malicorp plans to bring another int’l arbitration suit against Egypt: The minister also denied reports from earlier this month that UK construction firm Malicorp is planning to file another arbitration case against the Civil Aviation Ministry for USD 500 mn in compensation for terminating an 18-year-old contract to build, operate and manage an airport in Ras Sudr, Al Mal reports. The ministry had been stuck in legal wrangling involving foreign courts with the company since the contract was terminated back in 2001.
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