Finance Ministry launches Citizen Bond to lower borrowing costs by tapping retail investors

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

I New state strategy links export incentives to measurable results

Good morning, wonderful people. In today’s issue of EnterpriseAM, we bring you news that the Ramadan slowdown is starting to take hold. But while we may not have many stories in today’s issue, the ones we do have are certainly important.

Leading the issue is the launch of the Citizen Bond to tap into retail liquidity and average down borrowing costs. Also catching our attention is the Investment Ministry signalling that export subsidies moving forward will be strictly linked to KPIs.

We’re also tracking a massive USD 297 mn rail revamp that favors overhauling existing locomotives over buying new ones, a spike in EGP volatility as regional tensions provide the currency’s first major stress test of the year, and much, much more.

So, when do we eat? Maghrib prayers are at 5:49pm in the capital, and you’ll have until 5:01am tomorrow to hydrate and caffeinate ahead of fajr.

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WISH THIS MORNING’S ISSUE was a podcast? We’ve got you. Tap or click here to listen to Morning Drive, a 10-minute version of today’s issue crafted for you to enjoy with your morning coffee, while getting the kids ready for school, or while stomping around the house wondering where the [redacted] you left your [redacted] reading glasses.
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Watch this space

EXPORTS — The government is overhauling its export subsidies program, moving away from acquired-rights toward a strictly performance-based model. Investment Minister Mohamed Farid told heads of 13 export councils in a meeting last week that the state will no longer grant subsidies without “measurable and verifiable digital targets,” according to a ministry statement. The new framework — developed in coordination with Industry Minister Khaled Hashem — will link export rebates to specific key performance indicators (KPIs), such as penetrating new markets, increasing production capacity, and hitting job creation targets.

Why this matters: For years, many Egyptian exporters have relied on state rebates as a predictable component of their net income margins. Farid’s message was clear: “No incentives without targets.” This shift potentially ends the era of automatic cost reimbursement, putting immediate operational pressure on firms that have built their business models around state payouts rather than efficiency.

The move to a data-heavy, KPI-driven system is expected to favor large, organized players. Established companies with robust reporting systems will likely find it easier to provide the granular data required to prove they have met growth benchmarks. Conversely, smaller or less structured exporters may struggle to navigate the new compliance requirements, potentially leading to a consolidation in the export sector.

What’s next? The meeting will be followed by individual sessions with each export council to set sector-specific numbers and timelines. We will be watching for the official release of the new executive regulations for the export subsidy program to see exactly how these KPIs will be weighted across different industries.

INVESTMENT — The government is looking to establish a new investment fund dedicated to supporting emerging athletic talent, according to a cabinet statement. The goal is to provide sustainable financing for promising athletes, particularly in individual sports and underserved governorates.

A shift toward private-sector expertise? This came during a meeting between Investment Minister Mohamed Farid and Sports Minister Gohar Nabil that included high-level representatives from the Financial Regulatory Authority and major private-sector asset managers, including Azimut Egypt’s Ahmed Abou El Saad and Beltone’s Khalil El Bawab.

EGP watch

EGP dropped by an average of EGP 0.75 against the greenback over the last two trading days of last week to settle at EGP 47.64 per USD, driven by a jump in interbank activity and nearly USD 1.5 bn in hot money outflows, banking insiders tell EnterpriseAM. The sell-off followed escalating US-Iran tensions.

Why it matters: Geopolitical tensions play an oversized role in Egypt’s ability to attract foreign capital, which is critical to supporting the currency and sustaining growth under the wider reform program. Exchange rate stability remains a key prerequisite for bringing inflation down to lower, more sustainable levels, and the US-Iran tensions are proving to be the first real stress test of the year.

But there’s a significant silver lining that investors will be taking note of — all exit requests were met, our sources in the industry confirmed to us. The flexible exchange rate has seen the EGP operate within a healthy and acceptable volatility level that is consistent with other emerging market currencies, EG Bank board member Mohamed Abdel Aal tells EnterpriseAM.

The Finance Ministry expects a temporary uptick in yields on government debt instruments until regional political tensions ease, our sources tell us. Our sources also warned that persistent regional headwinds, despite Egypt’s ongoing economic adjustment efforts, could push up the cost of insuring Egyptian sovereign debt, adding further pressure on the recovering economy.

What’s next?The immediate focus shifts to today’s EGP 75 bn in T-bills auction. This sale will determine the tensions premium investors now demand to stay in Egyptian debt. Former Industrial Development Bank chairman Maged Fahmy sees global investors in a wait-and-see mode: a continuation of the current uncertainty would lead to steady, limited outflows, a potential war would trigger significant hot money outflows, and any announcement of negotiations would drive a recovery for the EGP.

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Data point

USD 2.9 bn — that’s how much Egypt exported to the US in 2025, according to data from the US Census Bureau.

Moving forward, all incoming goods to the US from every country will soon face a 15% blanket global tariff under a law that gives the Trump administration a 150-day window to maintain the levy without congressional approval. President Donald Trump announced the decision yesterday following the US Supreme Court ruling his previous program of tariffs illegal.

PSA-

WEATHER- We are having another chilly Ramadan day in Cairo today, with a high of 22°C and a low of 11°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s cooler still in Alexandria, with a high of 19°C and a low of 10°C.

The big story abroad

One story is dominating headlines this morning: US President Donald Trump announced he is raising global tariffs to 15% after the US Supreme Court ruled that his previous tariff regime was illegal. Trump initially signed an order for a 10% tariff late Friday before hiking it to “the fully allowed, and legally tested, 15% level” a day later. While his Truth Social post claimed that the 15% rate is effective immediately, the White House has yet to provide an updated timeline — the earlier 10% tariff was set to go into effect on Tuesday.

Read more on the topic: The Financial Times is out with a piece looking at what this means for the trade pacts nations signed with the US over the past year. The main takeaway? Countries are unlikely to walk away from the agreements, but there may be a delay in their entry into force until the regulatory framework is clearer.

IN MARKET NEWS- European equities are the hot thing at the moment, with global investors looking to them in an effort to reduce their US holdings. European stocks are on track for record monthly inflows, having already hit two weekly highs this month with inflows nearing USD 10 bn.

AND- Berkshire Hathaway was a net seller during Warren Buffett’s final quarter as CEO. The conglomerate shed its holdings in Amazon, Apple, and Bank of America.

New Citizen Bond launching today offers Egypt cheaper path to debt

The Finance Ministry will debut its direct-to-consumer Citizen Bond today, with subscriptions available to retail investors through Egypt Post’s nationwide branch network, Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk said in a statement. While the cabinet’s announcement highlights the bond’s role in “enhancing financial inclusion,“ a desire to bypass the banking system and mop up micro-liquidity at a lower cost than institutional debt seems to be what’s really driving the move.

The 18-month, fixed-income bond is designed as a “secure savings and investment tool with a distinctive fixed monthly return,” Kouchouk said. The bonds will offer a net periodic return of 17.8% after taxes and provide a “good monthly return of 3–4%,” a senior government source tells EnterpriseAM, adding that as inflation continues to retreat, “the real return will be higher in future issuances.” Subscriptions start from EGP 10k to EGP 30k to prevent any resulting inflationary pressures.

Why this matters: While the secondary market for T-bills currently has yields hovering around 22-25%, the ministry is offering retail investors a lower net rate of 17.8%, helping it to average down its borrowing costs. The issuance also benefits from capturing a decent amount of liquidity that would otherwise sit in physical notes under the bed or in low-interest accounts.

Many Egyptians may be tempted to sign up given the expectation of positive real returns, with headline inflation of 11.9% y-o-y in January pointing to a return of around 6%.

The senior government official sought to reassure primary dealers (banks) that retail diversification would not hurt their business. Given that annual debt issuance is “massive,” there is room for all players. The ultimate goal is to “reduce the burden of borrowing from banks” and lower overall funding costs, they explained.

What’s next? While the initial launch is for 1.5 years, the ministry plans to add “longer-term tranches for individual investors in the future,” we’re told. This would further the state’s goal of extending Egypt’s debt maturity profile and help soothe one of the International Monetary Fund’s key concerns about our debt profile.

AND- Debt instruments tailored for Egyptians abroad will be ready very soon — by April at the latest — according to our source. The issuance will be offered through a dedicated digital platform currently under development to facilitate subscriptions and trading.

Government chooses overhauls over imports in USD 297 mn railway agreement

The Transport Ministry is set to bring 125 out-of-operation locomotives back to life under a USD 297 mn agreement with Advanced Power Dynamics (APD), the rail aftermarket parts and overhauls arm of Canada’s INPS Group, a senior government official told EnterpriseAM on Thursday. The 12-year contract to rehabilitate and upgrade 180 aging Henschel locomotives — including 55 already in service — plays into the government’s wider strategy of maximizing the efficiency of its existing fleet to support its push into freight transport and logistics.

The ministry also signed a EUR 54.9 mn agreement with Italy’s Salcef to modernize 300 km ofrailway lines. Spain’s Indra Sistemas also bagged a EUR 12.4 mn contract to upgrade contactless ticketing for Metro Lines 1 and 2.

Why it matters: By opting to rehabilitate — rather than simply purchase — 125 units, the state isn’t only saving money but ensuring that a lot of its spend goes into locally manufactured parts. Favouring rehabilitation over fresh purchases is a well-trodden path, with the Egyptian National Railways signing three contracts just last year worth over USD 235 mn with US-based Progress Rail to upgrade and maintain parts of the country’s locomotive fleet.

What’s next? We can expect a heavy focus on localization — with the government using these contracts to push for the local production of spare parts and maintenance activities to reduce the long-term FX drain of importing railway components.

Flextock lands USD 12.6 mn as it eyes wider MENA rollout

E-commerce infrastructure platform Flextock secured USD 12.6 mn in a Series A round led by TLcom Capital, with participation from other investors, according to a statement (pdf). The raise brings Flextock’s total funding to date to USD 15.8 mn, having also closed a USD 3.25 mn pre-seed round in 2021. Flextock will use the fresh capital to expand its operational footprint in Egypt and Saudi Arabia and further develop its integrated platform.

Flextock runs a tech-enabled platform that brings together logistics, sales, and financing for e-commerce merchants, simplifying a system that many merchants find fragmented and costly, co-founder Mohamed Mossaad tells EnterpriseAM. The platform combines fulfillment, last-mile delivery aggregation, cross-border trade enablement, online sales channel access, and embedded financing.

The firm focuses on cross-border e-commerce, where sellers often face regulatory uncertainty, customs procedures, tax requirements, and inconsistent delivery timelines. Through its Flexborders arm, the company bundles compliance, customs clearance, fulfillment, and delivery into one integrated service to reduce risk and cost while helping merchants scale more predictably, according to Mossaad.

Looking ahead, Flextock is turning its attention to execution. The company is investing in automation, data intelligence, and AI-driven tools to streamline fulfillment and cross-border operations, while scaling its go-to-market teams to attract larger merchants, Mossaad explained.

It is also eyeing more markets in the region where e-commerce demand is rising but infrastructure remains fragmented, planning a rollout with local partners.

Heliopolis University: education for sustainable development

Heliopolis University for Sustainable Development (HU) is emerging as a leading model that integrates rigorous academics with sustainable development practices. Backed by the SEKEM Initiative’s long legacy, HU integrates environmental, social, cultural, and economic dimensions of sustainable development for Egyptian communities at the core of its higher education mission.

At the heart of the HU experience is a unique human-centered Core Program that runs throughout all years of every degree, nurturing students through arts, culture, humanities, and languages to unfold their individual potential. While this curriculum shapes mindset and creativity, specialized community development centers provide the bridge to real-world application. Through these hubs that facilitate community-based learning, students translate their studies into field visits and social impact projects in regions such as Sharqia Governorate and Bahariya Oasis, becoming active contributors to the sustainable development of rural communities.

The campus itself functions as a living lab, featuring solar installations, sustainable water management systems, and an integrated waste-management facility. HU has also achieved carbon neutrality, balancing emissions through SEKEM’s organic cultivation and reforestation projects, making it a true pioneer of climate-positive education.

HU’s mission is made tangible through expanded sustainable farming projects, deeper community development and partnerships, and events such as the Climate Heroes Celebration, which brings together farmers, youth, policymakers, and women entrepreneurs around shared sustainability goals.

Through SEKEM’s broad ecosystem and partnerships across industries, students gain access to internships and project-based training in green industries and social enterprises, preparing them for growing regional demands in ESG, innovation, and impact-driven business.

As Egypt and the region seek higher-education models that combine academic rigor with real-world impact, HU offers a clear example. Building on SEKEM’s foundation in ethical enterprise and sustainable land development, the university is equipping a new generation to lead Egypt’s transition toward a sustainable, regenerative economy.

Why being small and flexible helps Okaz outperform institutional giants

As the domestic economy shifts from stabilization toward growth, investors are increasingly anticipating a rapid unwinding of the central bank’s tightening cycle. To understand how this may shape market openings in 2026, we spoke with Okaz Asset Management Managing Director Randa Hamed (LinkedIn). Hamed’s career began in brokerage in 2000, heading the high-net-worth-individual desk during the years leading up to the 2003-2007 rally, giving her a front-row perspective on market cycles that still informs her approach today.

Hamed expects the central bank to deliver a dramatic 700 basis point cut in interest rates by year-end, bringing the corridor rate down to 12.50-13.00%. She points out that with headline inflation gradually cooling toward 9-10%, the economy is finally entering a phase where risk assets can deliver sustained returns. In her view, the combination of lower rates and easing inflation creates an environment that favors equities over fixed income, setting the stage for a broader market rotation.

This macro outlook is already shaping investor behavior. Okaz has seen its assets under management more than triple since last summer to EGP 2.5 bn. Hamed attributed the growth to “an inflow of investors whose CDs have matured.” She explained that, in a post-devaluation environment, fixed income often acts as a value trap, while equities provide the more reliable path for capital preservation.

Capitalizing on these shifts requires flexibility and a “human touch.” Hamed notes that while institutional giants are constrained by quarterly allocation cycles, boutique managers can rotate positions within weeks. “Being flexible, being small, I think sometimes helps you to make gains easier.”

This nimbleness allowed Okaz to build stakes in overlooked sectors like cement, where one holding rallied 600%, without distorting prices, she noted. For Hamed, the competitive edge isn’t found in an algorithm, but in a relationship that often spans generations. She explains that her clients prioritize a human touch over digital interfaces. “I retain my clients because we answer every call, any time of the day.” This approach is what Hamed believes protects the firm from larger competitors.

With the post-devaluation exporter trade winding down, Hamed is turning toward fundamental value openings. She observes that banks currently trade at low price-to-book multiples, fintech remains a high-conviction play, and the healthcare and pharma sectors are attracting significant regional capital. To mitigate currency risk, she continues steering clients away from T-bills and more toward equities. “If you had your money in T-bills during the devaluation, you lost in real terms,” she notes, underscoring the importance of adapting to macro realities.

Looking ahead, Hamed emphasized that for Egypt to fully institutionalize, the market needs greater depth with large-cap listings. She noted that the exchange is still top-heavy — with activity concentrated in a few index heavyweights — while stamp taxes continue to pose a barrier for retail participation. She expects a period of measured earnings-taking followed by strategic sector rotation rather than a broad-based rally.

Fresh capital for Nargis as Mubadala deepens Egypt play

UAE’s Mubadala acquires 15% stake in Eni’s Nargis offshore concession

UAE’s Mubadala Energy completed its acquisition of a 15% participating interest in the Nargis Offshore Concession from Eni — a 1.8k sq km block located roughly 50 km offshore in the East Nile Delta Basin, the company said in a statement on Thursday. Following the transaction, Chevron remains the operator — alongside the Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company — with 45%, while Eni holds 30%, and state-owned Tharwa Petroleum retains 10%. The transaction value remains undisclosed.

Why it matters: Mubadala now holds a three-block footprint in the Mediterranean in what appears to be a clustering strategy, including a 20% stake in the adjacent Nour concession and a 10% interest in the Shorouk concession (home to the Zohr field). For Egypt, Mubadala provides the fresh capital needed for the Nargis partners to potentially bring the field online soon, which would boost Egypt’s largest-ever Mediterranean drilling campaign this year.

XRG, BP’s Arcius eyes USD 150 mn in Egypt exploratory well

Arcius Energy plans to invest USD 150 mn to drill an exploratory well in Egypt’s Mediterranean in 4Q this year, Asharq Business quotes a government official as saying. The Adnoc and BP joint venture has a broader investment strategy to develop oil and gas concessions in the country that it acquired from BP and Shell, with a USD 3.7 bn target over the next five years, Oil Minister Karim Badawi said.

An expanding portfolio: The company — established in December 2024 — holds former BP assets in two Egyptian development concessions, including a 10% stake in the Shorouk concession and full ownership of the North Damietta concession. It also holds exploration rights in North Tabya, Bellatrix City East, and North Fayrouz. Back in November, Arcius finalized an agreement to acquire the Harmattan gas and condensate field in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Bosta taps Super Jet’s nationwide fleet to expand inter-governorate shipping

State-owned Super Jet and delivery startup Bosta inked a strategic partnership to roll out a same-day inter-governorate shipping service, using Super Jet’s nationwide bus network, the Transport Ministry said in a statement. Bosta will station staff at select Super Jet terminals to receive, register, and prepare parcels for transport on scheduled bus routes. Once fully launched, the project is expected to handle 6 mn shipments annually.

Why this matters: The move signals the government’s push to better monetize transport sector assets through partnerships with the private sector. It also allows Bosta to gain access to a large and scheduled nationwide fleet without buying a single new bus, enabling it to operate faster shipping lines while lowering its cross-governorate delivery costs.

Global AI demand drives utilities gains

Savvy investors have been wagering for years that AI workloads would lift the utilities sector, and that wager has now gone mainstream, Bloomberg reports. The biggest ETF tracking the sector, the Utilities Select Sector SPDR, is up 6.8% so far this year. Utilities — once bought mainly for predictable dividends — are suddenly being treated as AI plays.

Part of what’s driving this is simple rotation. Investors trimming pricey tech stocks still want exposure to AI, and regulated utilities offer a steadier, dividend-paying way to stay in the AI game without trying to wager on which firms will deliver returns. Power companies are effectively on the W side of AI disruption, because so much capital is flowing into generation and transmission, Citigroup analyst Ryan Levine told Bloomberg.

Momentum is buoying big players in the sector, with NextEra Energy recently hitting a record high after raising its dividend and securing nuclear power agreements with Microsoft and Meta Platforms. Meanwhile, Duke Energy and Constellation Energy have also climbed, supported by expanding data center transactions.

Lower long-term treasury yields have helped too, since utilities rely heavily on borrowing to fund infrastructure. But with positioning now crowded and bond yields under scrutiny, the trade looks more delicate than it did a few months ago.

An “extreme buying frenzy” is how analysts at SentimenTrader describe buying momentum, warning that valuations are starting to stretch beyond fundamentals.

EGX30	50,668	-3.0% (YTD: +21.1%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 47.52	Sell 47.66
USD (CIB)	Buy 47.55	Sell 47.65
Interest rates (CBE)	19.00% deposit	20.00% lending
Tadawul	10,947	-1.9% (YTD: +4.4%)
ADX	10,581	-0.3% (YTD: +5.9%)
DFM	6,591	-0.3% (YTD: +9.0%)
S&P 500	6,910	+0.7% (YTD: +0.9%)
FTSE 100	10,687	+0.6% (YTD: +7.6%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,131	+1.2% (YTD: +5.9%)
Brent crude	USD 71.76	+0.1%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.05	+1.7%
Gold	USD 5,081	+1.7%
BTC	USD 68,056	0.0% (YTD: -22.3%)
S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index	1,029	+0.1% (YTD: +3.6%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	153.36	-0.1% (YTD: +1.0%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	19.09	-5.6% (YTD: +27.7%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 3.0% at Thursday’s close on turnover of EGP 5.6 bn (9.7% below the 90-day average). Regional investors were the sole net sellers. The index is up 21.1% YTD.

In the green: Rameda (+2.4%).

In the red: Ibnsina (-5.4%), Raya Holding (-5.3%), and TMG Holding (-5.0%).

CALENDAR

2026

FEBRUARY

25 February (Wednesday): IMF’s Executive Board meeting for our sixth and seventh reviews

MARCH

15 March (Sunday): IMF to hold its seventh review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

21 March: (Saturday): Eid El Fitr starts (TBC).

30 March – 1 April (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt International Energy Conference and Exhibition (EGYPES).

APRIL

2 April (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s second meeting of 2026.

12 April (Sunday): Coptic Easter.

25 April (Saturday): Sinai Liberation Day.

MAY

1 May (Friday): Labor Day.

21 May (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s third meeting of 2026.

27-29 May (Wednesday-Friday): Eid El Adha (TBC).

JUNE:

30 June (Tuesday): National holiday in observance of the June 30 Revolution (TBC).

JULY

9 July (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fourth meeting of 2026.

23 July (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Revolution Day (TBC).

AUGUST

20 August (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fifth meeting of 2026.

26 August (Wednesday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

SEPTEMBER

15 September (Tuesday): IMF to hold its eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

24 September (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s sixth meeting of 2026.

27-29 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Global Conference on Population, Health, and Human Development.

OCTOBER

6 October (Tuesday): Armed Forces Day.

29 October (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s seventh meeting of 2026.

DECEMBER

17 December (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s eighth meeting of 2026.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

Early 2026: Passenger operations on the New Administrative Capital-Nasr City monorail scheduled to begin.

Early 2026: The government will launch the second package of tax breaks.

1Q 2026: Trial operations for the Ain Sokhna-Sixth of October section of Egypt’s first high-speed rail line scheduled to begin.

1Q 2026: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to visit Egypt.

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments.

2H 2026: Operations at Deli Glass Co’s new USD 70 mn glassware factory kick off.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings.

2027: Egypt-EU Summit 2027.

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

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