Egypt prepares to offer a 40% stake in Banque du Caire as early as April

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What We're Tracking Today

Israeli gas begins to trickle back into Egypt

Good morning, friends. As the war in the Gulf enters its second week with little to no signs of abating, the government’s privatization push seems to be undeterred by the economic uncertainty, forging ahead with the long-awaited IPO of Banque du Caire and a USD 416 mn exit from the Gabal El Zeit wind farm.

Economic pressure is also starting to filter down, with leaders in the pharma industry warning that production costs could jump 30% on the back of rising input and freight costs, and the government signaling that price gougers across the economy may be referred to military courts.

While the pressure is certainly there, the most pessimistic forecasts have not been borne out — the EGP held firm at 50 at the end of trading last week, despite USD 1 bn in exits on Thursday alone.

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ENERGY — Natural gas flows from Israel to Egypt have partially resumed from Chevron’s Tamar gas field, industry publication Mees reports. The return of “small volumes” of gas follows the shutdown of both the Leviathan and Tamar fields after Israeli strikes on Iran began on 28 February.

Why this matters: While mazut and LNG shipments are in short supply and seeing significant price increases as nations compete to secure energy supplies amid the closure of the Hormuz Strait, Israeli gas can only be used domestically or exported to Egypt or Jordan due to infrastructure constraints. If — and there’s a big if here — Israel reopens its offshore field imports to Egypt, which averaged 920 mmcf/d in January, it could significantly ease our energy squeeze.

COMMODITIES — The government is signaling it will take a hard line against price gougers and hoarders taking advantage of the war on Iran, with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi directing the government to study referring those accused of doing so to military courts, according to an Ittihadiya statement. Describing the country as being in “a state of near-emergency,” the president signaled that the state will no longer rely on just consumer protection fines and other standard measures to stabilize the domestic market during the conflict.

Why this matters: The problem is that the invisible hand of the market can often be overridden by panic in times of crisis. With the rise in global energy prices, supply chain disruptions, and a weakened EGP, price pressures and shortages are expected to rise to an extent — but often it is the anticipation that creates a feedback loop of consumers rushing to market to stock up and sellers more than willing to raise prices irrespective of the current market fundamentals.

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PSA-

Got an Opel? You may need to get your airbags replaced. Opel’s local agency Mansour Auto has issued a recall for models manufactured between 2007 and 2019 due to a manufacturing defect in its airbags that may “affect their performance efficiency and lead to serious accidents,” warned the Consumer Protection Agency in a statement. Owners are instructed to go to authorized service centers to have their airbags replaced without charge, in addition to a complimentary oil and oil filter change.

WEATHER- The brisk and breezy weather continues in Cairo today, with a high of 21°C and a low of 11°C, according to our favorite weather app.

Sunny skies are forecast for Alexandria, with a high of 20°C and a low of 11°C.

The big story abroad

The escalating regional war is getting widespread coverage today, with US President Donald Trump saying Iran will be hit “very hard” on Saturday, adding that Washington will consider striking areas and groups of people in the Islamic Republic that were not previously targeted. This came after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian roundly rejected Trump’s call for Tehran’s “unconditional surrender.”

Regional oil output is severely disrupted: The UAE and Kuwait have started cutting oil production in light of the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Kuwait Petroleum — a key exporter of naphtha to Asia and jet fuel to Europe — declared a force majeure over the weekend. It began with a cut of about 100k barrels per day early yesterday, which is expected to triple today, unnamed sources told Bloomberg.

Meanwhile, on Wall Street: Blackrock has set limits on withdrawals from one of its flagship private credit funds after seeing a 54% jump in redemption requests during 1Q 2026. Clients withdrew some USD 1.2 bn from the HPS Corporate Lending Fund, around 9.3% of its net asset value. Blackstone last week reported a similar outflow, with clients pulling out USD 3.7 bn from its flagship BCred fund in the first three months of the year.

Holding steady — for now

The Madbouly government isn’t backing away from plans to sell a stake in Banque du Caire, a senior government official told EnterpriseAM at the end of last week, even as the US-Israeli war on Iran accelerates.

Officials are talking amongst themselves about a valuation for the bank that feels comfortable and are eager to see investment bankers line up cornerstone investors, we’re told.

There are two big questions to watch on Banque du Caire: The first is the size of the transaction — one variable that remains firmly in the hands of policymakers here in Cairo. We previously reported that up to 30% could be on offer, but the math speaks in favor of a larger offering. The official we spoke with suggested a 30-40% stake could be up for grabs — the upper end of that range would be an improvement, but we’d prefer to see 49%. That’s the maximum that selling shareholder Banque Misr is allowed to part with under listing regulations.

Why larger? Investor appetite for Banque du Caire was strong in an early-look roadshow that saw CEO Hussein Abaza and CI Capital investment bankers sit with potential cornerstone investors from across the world. The roadshow stopped late last year for investors in London, New York, the UAE, and South Africa.

Heavy appetite from potential international investors speaks to an order book that could fill up quickly. At 30%, that would have bankers scrambling to fit in non-anchor international investors as well as local institutions — and they’ll still want overhead left for retail investors who provide the daily trading liquidity that allow institutions to get into and out of positions.

Officials would like to see BdC go to market in the April-June window, the official said, confirming our reporting of late last year.

SOUND SMART #1- Anchor investors are funds that could have the appetite and AUM base to write a meaningful ticket for an IPO that, in this case, could be worth up to USD 500 mn. Anchor investors are typically assured they’ll get whatever size stake they ask for, but would customarily have to agree to a lockup period.

Uhm, Enterprise? You said *two* things to watch? Yep. The other is market conditions. With investors in a risk-off posture amid the war in the Gulf, the first thing that usually gets shelved is an IPO. That officials are trying to stay the course is a good thing — it’s still early days — but don’t read this as a policy failure if they put the sale on ice. If it slips, bankers could still try to catch the fall IPO window if investor sentiment improves.

Banque du Caire isn’t the only state-owned bank that could be on the auction block. A piece of Arab African International Bank — Hassan Abdalla’s alma mater — may be up for grabs, and we’ve previously reported that officials want to part with the 20% of Alexbank that’s not owned by Italy’s Intesa Sanpaolo.

With drones and interceptors flying in the Gulf, last week was a surprisingly busy week for the privatization program. In addition to pushing for progress on the BdC sale, officials told us they plan to temporarily list 13 state-owned companies and that the Sovereign Fund of Egypt is seeking an investment bank to quarterback the upcoming IPO of Misr Life.

SOUND SMART #2- With BdC, the building blocks of a strong IPO are in place. CEO Hussein Abaza — a perennial favorite among emerging markets investors and a multi-time Extel honoree — has sharpened the bank’s competitive edge, which includes unique brand equity and a strong balance sheet. The sale of a significant stake in BdC would be Egypt’s first compelling listing in years and the clearest signal yet to the IMF that the state is taking seriously demands that it step back from direct competition with the private sector.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

The EGP held firm against heavy selling pressure on Thursday

The USD held firm just above the EGP 50 mark as banks closed on Thursday for the weekend, capping a day that saw investors sell down debt and equity positions worth nearly USD 1 bn, a senior banker tells EnterpriseAM. The scale of outflows on Thursday was considerably larger than the week’s average and nearly matched levels seen when markets first opened after the conflict started last Saturday.

We saw USD 3.5 bn in total interbank volume last week, more than double the USD 1.6 bn the week before. Much of this activity — including USD 710 mn on Thursday — was driven by banks fulfilling foreign investors’ exit requests.

Hot money outflows now stand at c.USD 3 bn since the conflict started, another banker told us. Egypt had attracted some USD 45 bn in portfolio investment before the drones started flying.

This isn’t a bad thing: Investor confidence in the central bank’s commitment to a flexible exchange rate has gotten a boost, the second banker told us, signaling to some more risk-tolerant investors that it might be worth staying in the market to avoid the FX loss they’d take by pulling out now.

Two other bankers we spoke with over the weekend told us they saw no sign that the central bank had its thumb on the scale: “Look, the proof is in the interbank market,” one said, adding, “You’d hear the howling now if investors were locked into positions and the CBE was telling us to slow-walk them” out the door.

Egypt has more breathing room than the headlines suggest. Importers typically front-load orders ahead of Ramadan, a government official we spoke with over the weekend noted, meaning it’s unlikely in the near-term that the EGP will face additional pressure from a spike in demand for letters of credit and letters of guarantee.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

A look at Mohamed Farid’s agenda

The government will focus on practical reforms that make it easier to operate and invest in Egypt, newly appointed Investment and Foreign Trade Minister Mohamed Farid said during his first policy remarks at the AmCham Egypt Iftar on Thursday. Farid outlined a reform agenda centered on cutting bureaucracy, digitizing services, improving economic data, and supporting exporters and entrepreneurs, adding that his priority will be to fix everyday bottlenecks rather than unveil new strategies. “We cannot be talking grandiose, we cannot be talking about dreams, without resolving our problems,” he said.

Going digital: “Step one is digitization and facilitating processes,” the new minister told attendees, adding that reforms will first target operational issues affecting companies already on the ground in Egypt. “Anything associated with their corporate actions […] needs to be facilitated and streamlined,” including capital increases and company establishment, Farid noted.

Drawing on his experience leading the Financial Regulatory Authority and the Egyptian Exchange, he recalled how delays in capital increases weighed on listed companies. The moment a capital increase was announced, he explained, the stock price would dive because investors “would not want to wait four months until [they] get the stocks in [their] hands,” adding that investors typically expect to receive their shares within days.

The data gap: The second reform pillar will focus on improving the economic data used in policymaking, including companies’ financial reporting and data collection procedures. Farid highlighted the need to better calculate Egypt’s national saving ratio to determine the level of investment required to support growth. “What you cannot measure, you cannot manage,” he added. He also suggested that Egypt’s FDI statistics may understate actual inflows, noting that “a significant portion of FDI is not only the flows that happen through the banking system, but [also] retained earnings.”

Reducing government intervention is another reform priority. “We need to put ourselves in the backseat a little bit when it comes to corporate actions,” the minister said, adding that authorities should step back from interfering in company valuations and investment decisions unless violations occur. He noted that in some cases, regulators have blocked transactions because they disagreed with valuations proposed by investors. “The investor is taking the risk. Who am I […] to decide that they should not be taking the risk in that regard?”

Digitization will also enable foreign investors to establish companies remotely, Farid said. Authorities are working on systems that would allow investors to verify their identity using electronic passports and digital signatures, without needing to be physically present in Egypt. Under the envisioned framework, “foreign investors don’t even need to notarize a power of attorney document with the public notary here in Egypt because [they will be identified] abroad.”

Effective targeting is key: Beyond administrative reforms, the minister outlined plans to support exporters and industrial players through better trade promotion. Egypt has “significant [prospects] and quite good players when it comes to exporting,” he said, but exporters need more targeted support. The government plans to improve trade promotion tools, exhibitions, and market intelligence to help firms identify growth windows and expand their footprint, he added.

A new fund to close the startup growth-capital gap: The minister announced plans to address financing gaps facing startups and scaling companies. Early-stage funding is already supported by incubators and accelerators, he said, but growth-stage financing remains scarce. “What is missing […] [is] limited partners. This is where you have a serious bottleneck in Egypt.” To address this, the government plans to establish a large co-investment vehicle through the Sovereign Fund of Egypt to invest alongside venture capital firms, Farid said, adding that World Bank Group President Ajay Banga expressed interest in participating.

Implementation over new strategies: Farid emphasized that improving the investment environment will not come from “one big reform” but rather from a “series of small reforms with calculated interventions” implemented over time. The focus now, he added, is execution rather than drafting new policy frameworks. “We have sufficient policies, we have enough strategies, and we have enough charters […] For me, I’m going to do the reforms. That’s the bottom line.”

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

No such thing as a freeride?

The Transport Ministry is sending the Administrative Capital for Urban Development (ACUD) an EGP 1 bn bill to help offset the costs of extending the light rail transit (LRT) system into the new capital, according to a government document seen by EnterpriseAM. The demand is split between an EGP 300 mn betterment fee, stemming from the increase in land value adjacent to the LRT’s third phase extension, and a second EGP 700 mn fee for advertising rights inside LRT stations.

Why it matters: The move could signal that other developers may soon have to chip in for infrastructure works that boost their land value. By demanding betterment fees, the state is attempting to claw back some of the benefits created by public investment. For developers, the prospect of having to cough up as areas are built up may push them to rethink the calculus of land banking or the speed at which they need to complete projects.

The ministry also plans to let local developers building on both sides of the LRT sell in USD, which the document presents as a move to bolster receivables for ACUD.

AND- The LRT will also be funded by a CNY 1.5 bn loan (c.USD 213 mn) from the Export-Import Bank of China, which carries a 2% annual interest rate and a 20-year tenor, including a five-year grace period, according to the document. The Finance Ministry is guaranteeing the facility, with Egypt covering all related taxes, customs duties, and VAT.

Two additional facilities have been arranged to cover part of the National Authority for Tunnels’ obligations to China’s AVIC under their commercial contracts for the supply and construction of the third phase. A USD 42 mn loan, priced at 3.75%, will finance 10.7% of the construction contract’s value, while a separate USD 90 mn facility, with an interest rate of 2.75%, will cover 22.9% of the machinery supply contract’s obligations.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Egypt prepares the ink for USD 416 mn Gabal El Zeit exit

The long-awaited acquisition of the 580 MW Gabal El Zeit wind farm is entering the home stretch, with the UAE’s Alcazar Energy set to finalize its takeover of the site later this month, senior government officials tell EnterpriseAM. Alcazar’s acquisition is expected to total USD 416 mn — a significant jump from the previous c.USD 300 mn offer from the UK’s Actis.

We were initially told that Alcazar would wrap up the acquisition in mid-February at a price exceeding USD 420 mn.

The final price was determined based on new valuation standards recently adopted by the government, which take into account the full value of the project’s assets to reach a fair market price. Per the agreement, the Electricity Ministry will remain responsible for paying off the roughly USD 350 mn loan to build the farm and the state will purchase output at USD 0.03 per kWh, paying mostly in USD.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

EGP slide puts the pharma industry in a corner

A weakening EGP is adding pressure on the pharma industry, forcing the Central Bank of Egypt to fast-track urgent letters of credit for essential imports, Egyptian Chambers of Commerce pharma division head Ali Ouf tells EnterpriseAM. While Egypt currently has a six-month supply of raw materials and a four-month stock of finished meds, the volatile exchange rate is threatening the industry, Ouf warns

Manufacturers are caught in a classic double bind: skyrocketing import costs and fixed local prices. With most active ingredients sourced from China and India, the cost of making drugs is highly vulnerable to the trade disruptions currently rocking the Gulf. Ouf estimates that production costs could climb by 30% over the next three months, compounded by a potential 50% jump in container ins. costs. Air freight is no longer a viable escape valve either, with costs having spiked by 200-300%.

Under normal circumstances, a mandatory pricing system prevents manufacturers from passing these costs onto consumers, Ouf explains. Drug makers are also bogged down by a list of import and financial fees owed to the Egyptian Drug Authority and the Finance Ministry.

But these aren’t normal times. Ouf is calling for special treatment to avoid potential drug shortages. His division is urging the government to either adjust price caps to reflect current exchange rates or slash the fees imposed on drug registration, logistics services, and financial charges. Either of these measures, combined with the CBE’s support, could stabilize production without forcing the public to pay more at the pharmacy counter, Ouf argues.

MEANWHILE- The government has cleared a significant chunk of its debt to the industry, paying out EGP 30 bn of the EGP 43 bn owed — a much-needed liquidity boost for a sector under pressure.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Nassef Sawiris to exit OCI Global chair after two decades

Nassef Sawiris will step down as OCI Global’s executive chair after more than two decades at the helm of one of the world’s largest fertilizer producers “due to other professional commitments,” according to a statement from the Dutch-listed company. Sawiris will officially leave the role as of the company’s next annual general meeting.

Why this matters: This looks like a move from Sawiris to get the proposed merger with EGX- and ADX-listed Orascom Construction back on the table. Back in January, a Dutch court threw a wrench in the works by blocking the merger, in part due to concerns over Sawiris’ influence on the board.

Polaris Parks heads to the New Capital

Polaris Parks will soon be opening up shop in the New Capital after the industrial developer finalized its partnership agreement with the Administrative Capital for Urban Development to develop a 1.8 mn sqm industrial and logistics park, according to a joint statement (pdf). The announcement follows an MoU signed by the two during President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s visit to Turkey in 2024.

The USD 120 mn project is expected to attract investments of USD 2 bn, according to an Industry Ministry statement, citing Industry Minister Khaled Hisham.

Heavy industry will be off limits to avoid a detrimental effect on the wider city, with the project focusing on light and clean industries including food, pharma, engineering, chemicals, and cosmetics, Polaris Parks General Manager Bassel Shoirah tells EnterpriseAM.

What’s next? The zone will be up and running in two years, we were told.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Asia loses altitude

The “sell America, buy Asia” trade has hit turbulence. One of 2026’s cleanest positioning calls is suddenly wobbling, as oil, war risk, and a firmer USD force investors to ask whether Asia’s rally was built for geopolitics after all, Bloomberg reports.

The market reaction has been blunt: The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is down about 6% this week, versus a 0.1% drop for the S&P 500, as funds rotate back toward US assets and the USD regains haven status. Taiwan is flashing a similar strain, as foreigners dumped USD 6.3 bn of equities in just the first three days of the week, putting the market on track for one of its largest weekly outflows on record.

The problem for Asia: Asia imports the shock more directly than most, with Japan and South Korea especially exposed to Hormuz-linked shipments. China, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan are all heavily import-dependent, making this oil spike “exponentially more corrosive” for Asia than for the West, Vantage’s Hebe Chen said. Goldman Sachs estimates a 20% jump in Brent would shave as much as 2% off regional earnings.

The AI trade is now part of the unwind. Investors are trimming last year’s hardware outperformers — especially South Korea and Taiwan — as higher energy costs collide with rich multiples and make capital-heavy tech stories harder to defend.

Credit is flashing the same warning: A Julius Baer note seen by EnterpriseAM says Asian CDS spreads are widening across oil-importing economies, with India up 6.6 bps in a week and higher-risk Southeast Asian names moving 4-6 bps, as markets begin pricing a steeper regional risk premium if the war drags on.

Truth is, some of that fatigue predated the geopolitical jitters. Foreign investors sold Asian equities for a fourth straight month in February, Reuters reports, with South Korea alone posting record outflows of USD 13.7 bn, as AI valuation nerves had already started spilling far beyond Wall Street.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background and outside sources.)

EGX30	47,516	+2.3% (YTD: +13.6%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 50.09	Sell 50.23
USD (CIB)	Buy 50.09	Sell 50.19
Interest rates (CBE)	19.00% deposit	20.00% lending
Tadawul	10,776	+0.8% (YTD: +2.7%)
ADX	9,903	-1.4% (YTD: -0.9%)
DFM	5,917	-3.2% (YTD: -2.2%)
S&P 500	6,740	-1.3% (YTD: -1.5%)
FTSE 100	10,285	-1.2% (YTD: +3.6%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,710	-1.1% (YTD: -1.2%)
Brent crude	USD 92.69	+8.5%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.19	+6.1%
Gold	USD 5,159	+1.6%
BTC	USD 67,259	-1.6% (YTD: -23.2%)
S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index	1,030	+0.1% (YTD: +3.8%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	151.78	-0.3% (YTD: -0.1%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	29.49	+24.2% (YTD: +97.3%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 2.3% at Thursday’s close on turnover of EGP 6.8 bn (7.0% above the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 13.6% YTD.

In the green: Palm Hills Developments (+6.6%), Qalaa Holdings (+5.9%), and Edita (+5.5%).

In the red: Kima (-3.4%), Raya Holding (-1.7%), and Heliopolis Housing (-1.6%).

CALENDAR

2026

MARCH

10 March (Tuesday): Capmas expected to release inflation data for February

21 March: (Saturday): Eid El Fitr starts (TBC).

30 March - 1 April (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt International Energy Conference and Exhibition (EGYPES).

APRIL

2 April (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s second meeting of 2026.

12 April (Sunday): Coptic Easter.

25 April (Saturday): Sinai Liberation Day.

MAY

1 May (Friday): Labor Day.

21 May (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s third meeting of 2026.

27-29 May (Wednesday-Friday): Eid El Adha (TBC).

JUNE:

30 June (Tuesday): National holiday in observance of the June 30 Revolution (TBC).

JULY

9 July (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fourth meeting of 2026.

23 July (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Revolution Day (TBC).

AUGUST

20 August (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fifth meeting of 2026.

26 August (Wednesday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

SEPTEMBER

15 September (Tuesday): IMF to hold its eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

24 September (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s sixth meeting of 2026.

27-29 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Global Conference on Population, Health, and Human Development.

OCTOBER

6 October (Tuesday): Armed Forces Day.

29 October (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s seventh meeting of 2026.

DECEMBER

17 December (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s eighth meeting of 2026.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

Early 2026: Passenger operations on the New Administrative Capital-Nasr City monorail scheduled to begin.

1Q 2026: Trial operations for the Ain Sokhna-Sixth of October section of Egypt’s first high-speed rail line scheduled to begin.

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments.

2H 2026: Operations at Deli Glass Co’s new USD 70 mn glassware factory kick off.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings.

2027: Egypt-EU Summit 2027.

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

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