The House of Representatives has approved all remaining articles of the InvestmentAct, according to a statement (pdf) from the Investment and International Cooperation Ministry on Thursday. The bill as a whole will now be put to a vote at the House in a plenary session today, Al Ahram reports. The Finance Ministry appears to have made its peace with the return of private-sector-run free zones, with Deputy Finance Minister Mohamed Maait telling Al Masry Al Youm that the ministry will be working on regulations to govern the zones. Establishing a private free zone would require the approval of the entire cabinet, a condition which helped win over the Finance Ministry, said Deputy Finance Minister Amr El Monayer, according to Al Mal. Deadlock on this and other contentious amendments to the law were apparently resolved during a sitdown between Prime Minister Sherif Ismail and House Speaker Ali Abdel Aal. El Monayer added that the amendment would set a cap on investment incentives at 80% of the capital invested in any one project.
The act’s executive regulations will be out within a month, Investment and International Cooperation Minister Sahar Nasr told Al Masry Al Youm. She made sure to point out that all ministries will be consulted during the drafting. Ministry officials also took to the local press to remind everyone that it was the House Economics Committee that raised the ceiling on investment incentives for any one project above the 40% specified in the ministry’s first draft of the act.
GAFI will not be the final arbiter of land allocation for business: The House also reportedly approved articles that would give the Trade and Industry Ministry and the CIT Ministry the authority to sell state land to the private sector, Al Mal reports. An earlier draft had granted the General Authority for Free Zones and Investments the overall power to privatize land for investment. It is still unclear how this will work given what appear to us to be conflicts with other laws including the State Lands Act, which grants ministries and authorities the right to tender land under their jurisdiction.
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Foreign investors have increased their holdings in Egyptian treasury bills to USD 5.8 bn as of end of April, up from less than USD 1 bn before the EGP was floated in November, Finance Minister Amr El Garhy told President Abdel Fattah El Sisi in a meeting on Saturday. At the current exchange rate, this figure would be higher than the EGP 91.8 bn that we noted at the end of April. Foreigners also invested USD 134 mn in Egypt’s equity markets in April alone, according to an Ittihadiya statement picked up by Al Borsa.
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Continuing last week’s drumbeat of investment stories: Chemplast Sanmar plans to investUSD 300 mn to “turn around” its Egyptian business, India’s LiveMint reports. “We are investing USD 300 mn in doubling our PVC capacity (in Egypt to 400k tonnes). One particular approval to build a pipeline did not come through and as a result our alternative approach was to make entire finished product there to cut our dependency on the pipeline,” the story quotes Sanmar Group Deputy Chairman Vijay Sankar as saying in an interview. The story then recaps the challenges Sanmar has faced in Egypt since its 2007 investment: “Egypt then was coming off 30 years of stable regime. Taxation was more progressive than in India and with project finance available, cost of production was low. Then all hell broke loose.” Sanmar is backed by leading Canadian investor Prem Watsa’s Fairfax (also a shareholder in CIB here in Egypt), the story notes, and is “betting on improving economic and political conditions in Egypt.”
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The government signed an agreement activating the financing of Sonker’s liquid bulk terminal in Ain Sokhna, Al Masry Al Youm reported. Sonker is investing USD 500 mn to construct and operate a bulk-liquids terminal for the import and storage of gasoil and LPG in the third basin of Ain Sokhna Port. USD 320 mn of the project’s cost is being financed by IFC, EBRD and CIB. Amiral is providing the rest of the financing.
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Women on unpaid maternity leave are still entitled to annual wage rises, the Supreme Constitutional Court ruled yesterday. The court was ruling in a case brought by employees of the Nasser Social Bank who argued it was unconstitutional to grant them “only part or none of their annual pay increases while on unpaid leave,” Ahram Online reports. Separately, the newspaper reports, the court ruled that early retirees are entitled to full pensions provided they paid into the state’s social insurance fund for at least 240 months. Early retirees were previously eligible for 85-95% of their total pension.
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Egypt is tied with Italy as the sixth-most expensive place in the world to buy an iPhone. Deutsche Bank’s annual “Mapping the World’s Prices" report is out, and found Turkey, Brazil and Russia as the three most expensive places in which to acquire a 128 GB iPhone 7, according to Business Insider. Egypt isn’t on DB’s list, but by our math, the EGP 17,999 price of an iPhone 7 at Tradeline (our Apple-pusher of choice when shopping here at home) is the equivalent of USD 995 and change, or just about the same price as in Italy. That makes Egypt cheaper than Poland and more expensive than the Czech Republic.
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Move to cash-based subsidy system won’t happen until inflation cools, El Moselhy suggests in interview with the Financial Times: Rising food prices are forcing families to rely more heavily on subsidized bread, straining an already-embattled bread subsidy system, writes Heba Saleh for the Financial Times. With food price inflation topping 41% in March, more people are dumping other staples such as rice and pasta and replacing these meals with subsidized bread. “We do need every pound [of savings] to decrease the budget deficit and improve the economy but now prices are not stable and inflation is extremely high,” Social Solidarity Minister Ali El Moselhy says. “If we stabilise inflation, I am totally with the cash subsidy. But the subsidy is to protect the poor and the needy in order to provide them with basic commodities. If we don’t achieve this objective, we would be doing something wrong.”
Saleh’s story comes as the visiting IMF delegation met with the officials at the Social Solidarity Ministry to discuss Egypt’s social safety net, including how the ministry has gotten a head start on disbursing cash subsidies, Deputy Social Solidarity Minister Nevine Qabbaj told Al Mal.
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MOVES- OCI Partners LP (NYSE: OCIP) has appointed Ahmed El-Hoshy as president and CEO of the general partner effective 12 May. El-Hoshy will remain a director of the general partner and will also continue as CEO of OCI N.V. in the Americas, the company said in a statement. El-Hoshy has been with Euronext-listed OCI N.V. for seven years and now heads all investment, operations and activities in the Americas. A veteran of Goldman Sachs in New York and Dubai, El-Hoshy is a Harvard grad and succeeds Frank Bakker. OCI Partners LP owns and operates an integrated methanol and ammonia production facility on the Texas Gulf Coast near Beaumont. The partnership is headquartered in Nederland, Texas, and has a methanol production design capacity of 912,500 metric tons per year and an ammonia production design capacity of 331,000 metric tons per year.
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MOVES- Porto Group’s board of directors approved on Thursday appointing Mohamed Mekkawi as the group’s new chairman and managing director, replacing founder Mansour Amer, Al Borsa reports.
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German holidaymakers are returning to Egypt, according to German tourism portal FVW. The number of German tourists visiting Egypt increased by 35% y-o-y in 1Q2017. In addition, new charter airline Azur Air will launch flights from Düsseldorf in mid-June to destinations including Egypt.
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No trace of explosives on EgyptAir MS804 victims: French investigators said no traces of explosives were found on the passengers of EgyptAir flight MS804 that crashed last May en route to Cairo from Paris, French newspaper Le Figaro reports. According to the report, investigators found no traces of explosives on the remains of 12 French victims. The French investigation comes at odds with statements from Egyptian investigators, who said in December that they had found traces of explosives on passengers’ bodies. Sources speaking to Le Figaro are alleging that Egypt has been trying to pin the crash on an explosion to “mask the poor maintenance of the national company’s aircraft, which is currently plagued by economic difficulties.”
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Shakeup at Al Azhar: Grand Imam Sheikh Ahmed El Tayeb sacked Al Azhar University President Ahmed Hosny after the latter called controversial Islamic researcher Islam El Beheiry an apostate. El Beheiry, who advocates a ‘modern’ take on many questions of Islamic jurisprudence, rose to fame via a popular night-time talk show, but was drummed off the air after a campaign by Al Azhar and other critics. He was eventually sentenced to a year in prison for the offense of “contempt of religion.” El Tayeb named Mohamed Hussein Al Mahrsawy as acting president. Hosny has since apologized for his comments.
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Hamas appointed yesterday former deputy chief Ismail Haniyeh as the group’s new political leader, succeeding Khaled Meshaal, who reached his term limit, Reuters reports. The change in leadership comes less than a week after Hamas issued a new policy document cutting its ties with the Ikhwan and touting a more “moderate” tone.
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A cuppa is about to get more expensive: A drought in many parts of Kenya's farming areas has cut its 1Q2017 tea production by more than third y-o-y, according to Reuters. Pakistan, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates are among the top buyers of Kenyan tea, the newswire says.
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US business schools are reporting declining applications from foreign students for the first time in more than a decade, the Wall Street Journal says. Biz school types point to “the Trump administration’s immigration and work visa policies” as being behind the decline in foreign interest.
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AmCham’s annual Doorknock mission wrapped up on Friday in Washington, DC, on a positive note. We joined the media delegation for a chat with outgoing AmCham President Anis Aclimandos and Omar Mohanna, chairman of the Egypt-US Business Council, for a briefing on this year’s mission. Key takeaways:
- Overall, the delegation felt that the view of Egypt in DC is very positive — that “a new page” has been turned in Egypt-US relations. This was fueled by President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s visit to the US. For the first time in years, US administration officials and members of Congress spoke of Egypt as an “ally.”
- The delegation came seeking partnership, not aid. Egypt brings significant opportunities to the table given its large domestic market of more than 90 mn people and its network of interlocking trade agreements.
- Egypt’s economic reform program was well received in Washington, where policymakers and lawmakers welcomed the elimination of the FX parallel market and moves to allow the repatriation of profits and capital.
- There were concerns about the high level of inflation in Egypt, but a recognition that the economy has so far proven able to absorb shocks and that Egyptian consumers are resilient. Other concerns raised centered on savings and tax revenues as a percentage of GDP.
- A backlog of USD 400-450 in unused US economic aid from previous budget cycles will not be recalled, which sends a positive sign.
- The strategic dialogue between Egypt and the US will likely have a business component — a significant achievement, in our view.
- The Doorknock delegation brought up the issue of a free-trade agreement with the US, a perennial “ask” on the Egyptian side that has in the past seen the US counter with conditionality on human rights. (We’re of two minds here: On the one hand, it’s hard to remember a president more predisposed to engage with Egypt than Trump. On the other, Trump’s skepticism of free trade is exceptionally clear.)
- There appears to no significant US objection to reducing the minimum percentage of Israeli content in exports to the US from Qualifying Industrial Zones to 8.5% from 10.5%. That said, the delegation was told the issue must be dealt with at the political level between Egypt and Israel.
- Creating better economic opportunities is a weapon in the war against terror. The US sees Egypt as a moderating force in the global struggle against religious extremism.
- Concerns about human rights and lawsuits related to US NGOs were brought up.
- The AmCham delegation held a total of 87 meetings including 54 with Congressmen, and nine with executive authorities such as the USTDA, the EXIM Bank, the Small Business Administration, and the Departments of Treasury, of Commerce, of Energy, and of State.
- The delegation met with International Finance Corporations (the OPIC, the World Bank, and the USAID), influential figures like NY Times columnist Thomas Friedman and George Washington University scholar Nathan Brown. They also met with 16 think tanks.
Egypt’s ambassador to the US Yasser Reda also hosted the delegation at the embassy. Key takeaways:
- A bilateral “strategic dialogue” on policy implementation is in the works. That dialogue will be run by Egypt’s minister of foreign affairs and the US secretary of state. The ambassador did not specify when the dialogue could kick off, but said he hopes it will be before autumn.
- Reda highlighted that Egypt will benefit from credit guarantees from the US.
- There was talk during El Sisi’s visit about a free-trade agreement between the US and Egypt, and early talks are still ongoing at the ministerial level.
- El Sisi’s visit to Washington wasn’t to sign agreements, but to have Egypt present its views on regional matters to the new US administration while the latter is still shaping its policies.
- El Sisi met with US companies to promote investment in Egypt. A positive political climate has an indirect effect on encouraging businesses to invest, the ambassador said.
- Egypt did not come to the US looking for aid, but for a strategic partnership and to attract investment.
Enterprise sat with Hazem El Beblawi, executive director of the IMF and former Egyptian prime minister and finance minister, along with the media delegation accompanying the AmCham Doorknock mission. Key takeaways from the luncheon:
- The second USD 1.25 bn tranche of the USD 12 bn facility to Egypt will be disbursed six weeks after the IMF concludes its current mission to evaluate progress on the economic reform agenda, said El Beblawi.
- Asked whether interest rates are an effective means of transmitting and inflation-targeting monetary policy given Egypt’s large unbanked populated, El Beblawi said it is one tool that can be used as part of a larger set of economic reform policies that work together.
- The IMF’s extended fund facility has made it easier for Egypt to access global credit markets and is a seal of approval on Egypt’s economic reform program.
- Improving the quality of local goods is the key to boosting Egypt’s exports — it’s not just about cost-competitiveness.
State Department official describes Egypt as “major non-NATO ally”: We visited the State Department last week with the media delegation, where an official described Egypt as a “major non-NATO ally of the United States.” President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s visit was very successful, he said, adding that the US is looking forward to working with Egypt make progress on files including security, the economy, trade, and regional issues. The official suggested that talk of any specific agreement to liberalize trade between the two countries would be premature.
“The most important thing about El Sisi’s visit is that it happened”: The delegation also sat with Mirette Mabrouk, deputy director and director of research and programs at the Atlantic Council’sRafik Hariri Center for the Middle East. “The most important thing about [President Abdel Fattah El Sisi's] visit is that it happened,” Mabrouk said, adding that it is too early to discuss what to expect of the Trump administration because it is still shaping its policies and many Department of State positions arestill vacant. It’s also key to remember that Trump does not rule alone, Mabrouk said, noting that Congress will have an influence on how relations between the two countries unfold. That said, it’s clear the Trump administration is putting significant focus on security issues. Mabrouk said the US is “concerned” about what is happening in Sinai, but that it believes it is up to the Egyptian government to deal with it its own way. On fears relating protectionism, she said the US will always be open for business. The only impediments to more US companies doing business in Egypt will be security and the regulatory framework.
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