We’re are an increasingly confident lot: The YPO’s 1Q2017 global confidence survey was out last week, and we’ve just gotten around to pulling it out of our slush pile. Globally, business confidence is essentially stable, the survey found, with the big deviations from the trend coming in the Middle East (where executives reported the biggest decline in confidence of any region in this quarter’s survey) and in Africa (also down on last quarter). CEOs in Egypt are bucking the trend, the YPO says, reporting that “Egypt reported a significant gain in confidence … with a surge in confiden[ce] of 14.9 points to the firmly optimistic territory of 79.4.” You can check out the results of the global poll here with a number of cool interactive features, or dive straight into the YPO’s analysis of the MENA results. YPO bills its survey as “the only CEO economic sentiment indicator to span the globe on a quarterly basis.”

Trump tells El Sisi he will visit Cairo “at the earliest opportunity”: US President Donald Trump told President Abdel Fattah El Sisi during a phone call yesterday that he plans to visit Cairo “at the earliest opportunity,” according to a presidency statement. The two also discussed strategic relations and efforts to combat terrorism. El Sisi and Trump are also expected to meet in Riyadh at the Arab Islamic-American Summit taking place on Sunday, 21 May.

Egypt should make it easier to do business and try harder to attract direct investment, economists tell Reuters’ Asma Alsharif. She describes the IMF report, which said its program in Egypt was off to a “good start,” as “glowing.” The Finance Ministry said the IMF review was "a new certificate of confidence for the strength of the Egyptian economic reform programme.” CI Capital economist Hany Farahat says “we are seeing aggressive reforms from the government to bring the deficit down and we're seeing numbers improving beyond expectations when it comes to foreign liquidity in the banking sector.” Arqaam Capital Reham El-Desouki agrees, saying “Egypt has succeeded in attracting large amounts of portfolio investment. The next big step is attracting direct investment, whether local or foreign, and for that to happen a regulatory environment for investment needs to be cleared … The biggest risk now is execution risk and a lot of investors will be waiting to see how this will be implemented through the executive regulations. So there will be a pause in significant direct investment until a regulatory environment is clear.” Farahat also has eyes on the investment act, but notes that the key here is that the market is waiting for the executive regulations. “If the executive regulations don't come out then there is no law ... This is causing us not to tap into the potential that we would be capitalising on today if the whole legislative reforms had been completed,” he says.

GAFI will solicit business input on executive regulations, muddies timeline on which they’re expected: The General Authority for Free Zones and Investment (GAFI) — soon to be renamed the General Authority for Investment — will ask business and investor associations for their input on the executive regulations of the newly-approved Investment Act, which are expected sometime in the next three months, according to GAFI chief Mohamed Khodeir, Al Borsa said on Monday.

The first day of budget discussions at the House was fairly smooth: Discussion at the House Budget Committee of the FY2017-18 state budget kicked off yesterday and went reasonably smoothly apart from the expected griping about inflation. That’s building toward resistance to hiking energy prices this summer on concerns about what that would do to consumers, according to Al Shorouk.

El Garhy briefed MPs on the state’s “special revenue funds” which members of the House have been trying to link to state coffers via legislation. The cumulative value of the funds or “special accounts” currently stands at EGP 33 bn, El Garhy said according to Youm7. The minister dismissed rumors suggesting that the accounts — which are subject to little oversight, are funded through channels separate from the normal budget process, and can reportedly be deployed at a minister’s request — hold more than EGP 600 bn. Members of the House Economics Committee have reportedly written Prime Minister Sherif Ismail to ask that the government present MPs with detailed reports on the special accounts, according to Al Mal.

Finance Minister Amr El Garhy reportedly declined to answer MPs’ questions about plans for energy price hikes in the new budget,but committee members said they plan on meeting with Petroleum Minister Tarek El Molla sometime in the next few days in a bid to postpone in the short term any energy price hikes, according to Al Borsa.

Separately, cabinet is reportedly set to receive plans for new electricity prices this week. The Electricity Ministry will send multiple scenarios for a proposed July price hikes to Cabinet this week, an unnamed ministry official tells Al Shorouk. The tariff increases will not be steep, and will hardly be felt by lower-income citizens, Electricity Minister Mohamed Shaker tells the newspaper. However, Shaker reaffirmed that the hikes are coming, and that failing to raise prices come July would cost state coffers some EGP 60 bn. The phase-out of subsidies will be implemented gradually over a period of five to seven years to avoid burdening the average citizen, the minister said, reiterating a long-standing government talking point.

House Budget Committee signs off on capital markets stamp tax: The House of Representatives’ Budgeting Committee signed off on the new 0.125% stamp tax (or EGP 1.25 for every EGP 1,000 in transaction value) that will be applied on the buy- and sell-sides of all capital market transactions once issued, Al Mal reported yesterday. The duty — which will gradually increase to 0.175% by its third year in effect — could come to a plenary session vote any day now, but will only be enforced once ratified by the presidency and published in the official gazette, probably in late May or early June, according to Deputy Finance Minister Amr El Monayer. Sell-siders: Reuters has the story in English, so you’ll want to touch base about this today with any particularly skittish clients. As originally conceived by cabinet, the stamp tax is two-sided and will be charged to both the buy- and sell-side of any transaction.

Unemployment in Egypt has dropped to 12.0% in 1Q2017 from 12.4% a quarter earlier, according to CAPMAS. The labor force increased by 0.3% q-o-q in 1Q2017 to 29.15 mn and the number of those who are unemployed dropped by 2.5% to 3.50 mn in the same quarter. The unemployment rate among females is still stubbornly high at 24.7%, despite dropping from its 4Q2016 level of 25.3%. Among males, the unemployment rate is at 8.2%. Youth unemployment remains a concern as 79% of those who are unemployed are in the 15-29 year old bracket, according to CAPMAS. Labor force participation rate stood at 45.8% in 1Q2017, down from 46.4% in 4Q2016.

China Fortune Land Development (CFLD) plans to invest USD 20 bn in Egypt over the next 10 years, according to an Investment and International Cooperation Ministry press release. The planned investments include projects in the New Administrative Capital in which it will begin a month after the contract for the project is signed. The project’s contract with CFLD is expected to be completed and signed soon, and the first phase of the project will be implemented within a year.

Egypt canceled a sale of seven-year treasury bonds at auction yesterday, according to central bank data, Reuters reports. No reason was given for the cancellation, but average yields on the three-year bonds had increased to 17.360% from 17.229% at the last similar auction, the newswire reported.

EARNINGS WATCH- EFG Hermes recorded a net profit after tax and minority interest from continued operations of EGP 236 mn in 1Q2017. Total operating revenue increased by 106% y-o-y to EGP 825 mn during the quarter. “Our revenue growth reflects both the robust health of our traditional agency business and a growing contribution from our non-bank financial institution. During the second quarter of 2017, we will continue to lay the foundation for profitable revenue growth as we begin integrating our newly acquired Pakistan operation into our platform and press ahead with the rollout of our frontier markets, more NBFI products and merchant banking strategies,” CEO Karim Awad says.

EK Holding turned in an exceptional quarter despite translating what are largely EGP-denominated revenues into USD for the purposes of its financial statements. Attributable net income grew 3% to USD 22.5 mn on flattish revenues of USD 103.4 mn, meaning its attributable net income grew 127% year-on-year in EGP terms. EKH’s investments benefitted from prevailing macro trends including the drive for import substitutes, exports and better availability of energy. The company’s full earnings release is here (pdf).

Telecom Egypt reported in net profit attributable to shareholders growing to EGP 1.34 bn in 1Q2017 from EGP 1.28 bn a year earlier. Operating revenue increased to EGP 4.19 bn during the quarter from EGP 3.06 bn in 1Q2016.

Meanwhile, a handful of international stories worth noting in brief this morning:

• US President Donald Trump is under attack for allegedly having revealed to Moscow “highly classified intelligence” about a planned operation against Daesh. Trump is said to have made the remarks during a meeting in the Oval Office with Russia’s foreign minister. (Reuters | New York Times | Wall Street Journal)
• Mass executions in Syria: The US is accusing the government of Bashar Al-Asad in Syria of running a crematorium to destroy evidence of mass executions. (Wall Street Journal | New York Times)
• GCC willing to recognize Israel? The GCC countries are offering to upgrade relations with Israel “if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will make a significant overture aimed at restarting the Middle East peace process.” The jockeying comes ahead of Trump’s planned tour of the region this month. (Wall Street Journal)
• Hardliners in Iran are closing ranks around Ebrahim Raisi against moderate Hassan Rouhani, the presumptive frontrunner in the polls. Conservative Tehran mayor Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf pulled out of the race yesterday and threw his supporters behind Raisi. (Associated Press)