Get EnterpriseAM daily

Available in your choice of English or Arabic

EGX rebounds, recouping last week’s losses

1

What We're Tracking Today

Egypt’s benchmark EGX30 recoups last week’s losses

Good morning, everyone. After a particularly busy start to the week, we have a brisk issue for you this morning.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Could we finally see Giza Spinning & Weaving make its long-awaited EGX debut? Giza Spinning & Weaving plans to list 25-40% of its shares on the EGX before the end of the year, Al Borsa reports, citing sources it says have knowledge of the matter. The company is set to file a listing request with the bourse before the end of the month. The company has reportedly tapped Beltone Holding as its financial advisor and transaction manager and Matouk Bassiouny & Hennawy as legal counsel.

Gulf money on the cards? Beltone Holding will reportedly hold roadshows in the Gulf and other foreign markets to promote the offering after it hits the EGX.

It’s been a long time coming: The company had initially planned to float as much as 40% of its shares on the EGX in an IPO in November 2018 before plans got pushed back to 3Q 2019 and 2020 due to poor market conditions, then again to 2022 in the wake of covid-induced market turmoil.


#2- Shutting down industrial factories now requires El Wazir’s approval: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi issued a directive forbidding the closure of any industrial facility without the greenlight from Transport and Industry Minister Kamel El Wazir, according to a ministry statement.


#3- FRA extends SIC’s MTO deadline for CIRA: The Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) granted Social Impact Capital (SIC) a 60-day extension on its mandatory tender offer (MTO) for up to 100% of CIRA Education, according to a statement (pdf) from the authority. The MTO period — which expired yesterday — is getting a 60-working-day extension as of Sunday, 11 August.

Remember: The Saudi Egyptian Investment Company — a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Public Investment Fund — said in May that it will buy into SIC, the vehicle through which the founding El Kalla family holds a controlling stake in EGX-listed CIRA Education. SIC used the cash injection to launch a mandatory tender offer to buy CIRA shares at a price of EGP 14 each to up its stake in the company to 75-100%.


#4- Africa’s first carbon market is ready for liftoff: The FRA has wrapped up all the necessary requirements and procedures to register carbon emissions-reducing projects and kick start Africa’s first regulated carbon market, allowing companies to issue and trade voluntary carbon certificates in Egypt and Africa, according to a FRA statement (pdf).

Remember:The FRA rolled out the requirements for carbon trading last month in preparation for the market’s launch. We took a deep dive into what we can expect for the market in the coming period in a Going Green published earlier this month.

EGX WATCH-

EGX rallies following global market meltdown: The benchmark EGX30 index climbed 2.7% yesterday to close at 29.5k, recouping losses incurred last week amid the recent global market meltdown. Market cap hit EGP 1.4 tn at yesterday’s close, according to market data.

ICYMI: The EGX30 dropped a total of 5.2% early last week while the EGP fell to its lowest level against the greenback in nearly six months on the back of rising geopolitical risk across the region and a global equity sell-off triggered by fears of a US recession.

FACT CHECK-

Elsewedy Electric is not leaving the EGX anytime soon: Elsewedy Electric denied rumors that the company has plans to delist its shares from the bourse, the company said in an EGX disclosure (pdf).

Remember:Last month, Abu Dhabi-based Electra Investment Holding acquired 20% of Elsewedy Electric in a USD 449.1 mn transaction.

Do you want to attend our 2024 Enterprise Finance Forum on 24 September? Seating is strictly limited at our flagship, invitation-only forum for C-suite executives and other senior leaders.

Why attend? We’re in the early days of a generational realignment of power in our industry — in our region and beyond — and on the cusp of the biggest intergenerational transfer of wealth that the world has ever seen. With that as the backdrop, we’re going to take stock of where we stand six months after the float of the EGP and ask what’s next for finance in our country and the wider region. Among the questions we’ll be asking:

  • What’s Egypt’s role in the regional industry?
  • What are foreign investors looking for right now?
  • Is real estate the only asset class in Egypt?
  • What does the next generation of leaders think as they take over established family businesses?

Do you want to request an invitation? Tap or click the image above.

PSA-

WEATHER- It’s another sunny day in Cairo, with a high of 36°C and a low of 26°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s a little cooler in Alexandria, with a high of 32°C and a low of 24°C.

** DID YOU KNOW that we now cover Saudi Arabia and the UAE?

** Were you forwarded this email? Tap or click here to get your own copy delivered every weekday before 7am Cairo time — without charge.

ICYMI- Missed this week’s Inside Industry? In our weekly vertical exploring all things industry and manufacturing, we looked at how the industrial sector is coping with rising production costs. Check out the story here.

HAPPENING TODAY-

The CBE is holding its first EUR-denominated t-bill auction since November: The Central Bank of Egypt is looking to raise some EUR 600 mn from auctioning off one-year, EUR-denominated treasury bills, according to the CBE website. The submission deadline for the auction is today at 11am.

So, why now? The central bank is likely looking to raise EUR funds to pay off maturing debt, EGBank board member Mohamed Abdel Aal previously told Enterprise. “FX can help bridge any existing and expected cash gap,” he added.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

#1- 500 Global's Seed Bootcamp returns to Egypt: The 500 Global Seed Bootcamp is accepting applications for early-stage startups to join its 2024 edition in Cairo from 28 September to 2 October. Applications are being reviewed on a first-come, first-served basis, and the window to apply closes Thursday, 15 August.

About the bootcamp: The 5-day program is offered in partnership with ITIDA and brings together global mentors across various areas of expertise, offering hands-on workshops and one-on-one mentoring sessions to help pre-seed and seed-stage startups gain deeper insights and develop effective action plans. For more information, check out the organization’s webinar featuring alumni of the program.

#2- Cairo and Tokyo to cozy up this month: Egypt and Japan plan to organize a high-level policy dialogue at the end of August to discuss development and cooperation, according to a statement by the Planning and Economic Development Ministry.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

The international business press is having another slow morning without one unifying story taking the lead. A few of the stories getting top billing this morning:

From the campaign trail: Kamala Harris is more trusted among American voters to handle the country’s economy than Donald Trump, coming in one percentage point above the former US president in a recent survey, the Financial Times reports. Although Harris’ edge over Trump is narrow, the current vice president polled seven percentage points higher than US President Joe Biden’s performance in US voter sentiment.

Israel is doubling down on its defenses and shoring up resources such as alternative fuel supplies as it expects a retaliatory attack from Iran could be imminent. Iran has vowed to respond to Israel for the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last month. Meanwhile, Israel is also ordering more displaced Palestinians in Khan Younis to evacuate the area, which it declared a “dangerous combat zone.” (Bloomberg | Reuters)

OLYMPICS-

The 2024 Paris Olympics closing ceremony wrapped overnight at Stade de France, marking the end of the summer games after two and a half weeks of action. The end of the Games earned plenty of attention (New York Times | BBC | The Guardian)

The ceremony featured performances by French band Phoenix, an iconic jump of Tom Cruise from the roof of the stadium, H.E.R., Red Hot Chilli Peppers, Billie Eilish, Snoop Dogg, and Dr Dre.

While Team USA tied with China for gold medals, USA topped the charts for overall medal count as they gear up to host the next 2028 summer games in Los Angeles. The US team is going home with a total of 125 medals, leaving one behind after gymnast Jordan Chiles was stripped of her bronze medal from last week’s floor final after the International Olympic Committee (IOC) ruled against her in a score dispute.

Not leaving the city of love just yet: As the Olympics wind down, the Paralympics are gearing up to kick off. Taking place in Paris as well, the Paralympics will start on Wednesday, 28 August and continue for 11 days.

New games, new boss: Thomas Bach’s 12-year stint as IOC president is coming to an end, as per IOC governance rules limiting each person’s term to 12 years, AP reports.

The medal table:

  • USA (40 gold,125 overall)
  • China (40 gold, 91 overall)
  • Japan (20 gold, 45 overall)
  • Australia (18 gold, 53 overall)
  • France (16 gold, 64 overall)

THE EGYPT ANGLE- Egypt’s largest-ever Olympic delegation, a 164-strong team competing in 22 sports, delivered some outstanding feats and a few flops at the 2024 Games.

The highs: The Summer Games saw team Egypt clinch a total of three medals after Ahmed El Gendy took home gold in modern pentathlon, weightlifter Sara Samir snagged silver in the women's 81kg, and fencer Mohamed El Sayed picked up bronze in the men's épée individual.

And the lows: Our handball team lost 29-28 to Spain at the quarterfinals, while the football team lost 6-0 to Morocco in the bronze medal match after reaching the semifinals for the first time since 1964.

ALSO- We’re taking a shot at hosting the 2036 or 2040 Olympics: Egypt will bid to host the 2036 and 2040 Summer Olympics as its improved infrastructure and sports facilities strengthen its chances, Reuters quotes Head of the Association of National Olympic Committees of Africa Association (ANOCA) Mustapha Berraf as saying at the Paris Games closing ceremony yesterday. A successful bid would be the first for Africa, which has never hosted the Games. Egypt last made an unsuccessful bid for the 2008 Olympics.

It’s been a long time coming: Cairo expressed its interest in hosting the 2036 Summer Olympics at the Egypt International Olympic City in the new capital back in 2022. The venue will house a 93.9k-seat national stadium alongside 21 other sports facilities.

** Dive deeper: We took a look at how the Madbouly government is looking to the private sector to develop our sports infrastructure ahead of our planned Olympics bid in a Hardhat last year.

Till next time: The International Olympic Committee has chosen five cities to stage the upcoming Games. These include Italy’s Milan and Cortina d'Ampezzo for the 2026 Winter Games, Los Angeles for the 2028 Summer Games, and Australia's Brisbane for the 2032 Summer Olympics.

*** It’s Blackboard day: We have our weekly look at the business of education in Egypt, from pre-K through the highest reaches of higher ed.

In today’s issue: We look at what lower expected public school enrollment means for Egypt’s education spending.

Dive into the enchantment of Somabay's underwater world. Encounter playful dolphins and captivating coral reefs, where each plunge unveils a new marvel. #SummerStoriesBegin #OneParadiseAllSeasons #SomabayRedSea

2

Energy

Egypt is setting up a USD 600 mn gas treatment facility

A new USD 600 mn gas treatment facility in the works: The Oil Ministry has a USD 600 mn natural gas treatment plant in the pipeline, with plans to have it running by mid-2025, a government source told Al Arabiya.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

The details: The plant is located in the Western Desert’s Meleiha concession, which is operated by Agiba — a JV between energy giant Eni subsidiary IEOC and the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC). The facility’s production will feed into the national grid.

Who’s developing the facility? State-owned oil and gas contractor Petrojet is acting as the project’s main contractor, working together with global oilfield services giant Schlumberger on engineering, design, and procurement for the treatment plant.

Timeline: The source said construction on the project should wrap up in 1Q 2025 and will be followed by a pilot run. If all goes well, the facility is expected to be fully operational by mid-2025.

The Western Desert already houses some older gas treatment facilities built in recent years to receive gas extracted from concession fields in the area, according to the source. The new plant will add to this existing capacity, and is designed to accommodate additional gas volumes in the coming years.

Agiba has big targets for this FY: The joint venture plans to invest about USD 500 mn this fiscal year, with a plan to up its daily production capacity to 30k barrels of crude oil and 119 mn cf of gas.

Part of a bigger plan: The Oil Ministry is looking to drill 110 exploratory wells with total investments of USD 1.2 bn in the current fiscal year, as part of a broader push to drill 586 exploratory wells with investments of USD 7.2 bn by 2030.

3

EARNINGS WATCH

Raya Customer Experience triples its income y-o-y in 1H 2024

Raya CX triples its net income in 1H 2024: Raya Customer Experience (Raya CX) saw its net income triple to reach EGP 245.3 mn in 1H 2024, rising 199.9% y-o-y, the company said in its latest earnings release (pdf). The company’s top line also climbed 38.5% y-o-y to record EGP 1.3 bn during the same period.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Driving the growth: The company’s business process outsourcing was the primary contributor to growth once again, accounting for EGP 707.4 mn, or 56.1% of total revenues for the first half of the year. The company’s hosting business recorded EGP 354.5 mn (28.1% of total revenue), while its insourcing business recorded EGP 199.6 mn (15.8%), according to the release.

FX revenue streams paid off once again: Offshore revenues denominated in USD recorded the equivalent of EGP 956.7 mn, accounting for 75.8% of the company’s total revenue — up from 53.7% in the same period last year. The FX streams enabled the company to “absorb fluctuations in foreign exchange rates,” according to the release.

What’s next? “Regionally, we are continuously strengthening our foothold in the GCC, and expect to add more delivery facilities in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and fully utilize our facility in mainland Dubai, UAE. Our operations in Europe are also under strategic review to identify growth opportunities, with Europe representing a market of immense potential,” CEO Alaa El Khishen.

ADIB DOUBLES NET INCOME IN 2Q-

Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank (ADIB) Egypt nearly doubled its net income in 2Q 2024 to EGP 2.5 bn — an increase of 94.7% y-o-y — the company said in its latest financial statement (pdf). The bank’s returns from Murabaha, Musharaka, and similar financing came in at EGP 8.8 bn, up from EGP 4.5 bn during the same period last year.

4

LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

More on Egypt’s Olympic victories

It was day two of Olympic festivities on the airwaves: Last night’s talk shows honed in on the victories of modern pentathlon athlete Ahmed El Gendy, weightlifter Sara Samir, and fencer Mohamed El Sayed at the Paris 2024 Games for a second night in a row. The medalists — who clinched gold, silver, and bronze at the Games — received attention from El Hekaya (watch, runtime: 1:46), Ala Mas’ouleety (watch, runtime: 11:49 | 9:56), Salet El Tahrir (watch, runtime: 4:09), and El Sa’a El Sadesa (watch, runtime: 5:07).

This publication is proudly sponsored by

5

Also on our Radar

Polaris Parks is set to invest EGP 5 bn in new industrial complexes

INDUSTRY-

Polaris Parks wants to set up new industrial complexes: Industrial real estate developer Polaris Parks has plans to invest EGP 5 bn in the local market to set up five industrial complexes in Obour, Tenth of Ramadan, Badr City, New Cairo, and Sadat City, General Manager Bassel Shoirah told AlMal. The company has sent in requests for new land plots ranging between 1-4 mn sqm to the Transport and Industry Ministry

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Remember: Polaris was among four industrial developers that received land for new industrial zones from the New Urban Communities Authority in New 6 October City in May.

ENERGY-

Ten LNG shipments and counting: The Oil Ministry received 10 out of 21 contractedliquified natural gas (LNG) shipments as of last week, Al Arabiya reports, citing an unnamed government official. The official also told the news outlet that the ministry is set to receive another 3-4 LNG shipments within the coming two weeks.

Remember: The government is reportedly planning to import up to 17 shipments of LNG in 4Q 2024 to ensure the lights stay on after an extended period of power cuts.

MINING-

Saudi Drilling & Exploration could soon enter the Egyptian market: One of the biggest mine exploration drilling companies in Saudi Arabia Drilling & ExplorationCompany could soon ink an agreement with an undisclosed Egyptian private sector player holding two gold exploration concessions in the Eastern Desert, the company's technical advisor Salah Bader told Al Mal. Under the pending agreement, the Saudi firm will provide drilling and prospecting services as well as geological and technical consulting. This would mark the Saudi firm's first venture into the Egyptian market.

More in the pipeline? The company has received several offers from entities investing in gold and mineral exploration projects locally and is currently evaluating them, Bader said.

RENEWABLES-

#1- NREA allocates land for renewables plants: The New and Renewable Energy Authority (NREA) has allocated land plots spanning 31k km for investors looking to set up renewable energy projects, Al Mal reports, citing unnamed Electricity Ministry sources. The total renewable energy expected from these projects is estimated at 113 GW — most of which will be generated from green hydrogen, namely from projects that first saw the light during COP27 in 2022.

Who and where? Orascom Construction, the UAE’s Masdar and Al Nowais, Saudi Arabia’s ACWA Power, and Norway’s Scatec are all on the list of investors in line for plots. The largest portion of the land is located in Sohag and Aswan, the sources told Al Mal.


#2- Jade Textile wants to set up USD 1.5 mn solar power station: Turkey’s Jade Textile has contracted an unnamed Gulf-based consultant to establish a solar power station for its factory in Tenth of Ramadan, with investments of around USD 1.5 mn, Corporate Communication Country Manager Moataz Abu Baker told Al Borsa. The station will have a capacity of 1.6k kw/h, providing 30% of the factory’s electricity consumption. The company has inked an agreement with the Arab African International Bank that will see the bank partially finance the construction of the plant.

BANKING-

CBE reminds local banks to allow non-residing foreigners to open accounts: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) has instructed local banks to allow non-residing foreigners to open accounts, reiterating that there are no restrictions on doing so as long as normal regulations are followed. “There is nothing preventing the opening of accounts for foreign clients who are not residents of Egypt,” the CBE said in a circular (pdf) last week.

In context: The clarification follows complaints from foreign customers who were denied access to banking services, a situation the CBE warned could harm the reputation of local banks and encourage transactions outside the formal banking sector.

REAL ESTATE-

HDP launches EGP 10 bn project in West Cairo: Housing and DevelopmentProperties (HDP) — the real estate development arm of the Housing and Development Bank — yesterday launched Club Hills Residence, an EGP 10 bn residential development in Sixth of October city. The project offers a range of residential units including apartments, duplexes, townhouses, and penthouses.

Four more projects in the pipeline: HDP is looking into setting up four real estate projects in East and West Cairo as well as the North Coast, Hapi Journal reports.

DEBT-

Who provided EEHC with its EGP 51 bn financing package? The EGP 51 bn financing package secured by the Egyptian Electricity Holding Company (EEHC) last month to pay off its debt to the government is being supplied by five local banks — the National Bank of Egypt, Banque Misr, Banque du Caire, CIB, and the Arab African International Bank, Hapi Journal reports, citing sources it says have knowledge of the matter.

The terms: While the package is not a joint loan, the financing terms are uniform across all five tranches — with the exception of interest rates, which go up to 0.75 percentage points above the corridor rate. The loans are guaranteed by the Finance Ministry and come with a five-year term.

Background: The Electricity Ministry last month said that EEHC had secured nearly EGP 51 bn in financing to partially settle the debts of the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation, enabling the petroleum sector to supply the necessary fuel for power stations.

INVESTMENT-

A rubber-recycling factory: Rubber manufacturer Hoppec plans to set up an EGP 100 mn rubber-recycling factory in Sadat City’s industrial zone, Al Borsa reports, citing CEO Ehab El Saka. The recycled rubber will go into the production of automotive components.

6

PLANET FINANCE

Multinationals face leaner times as China’s growth slows

Multinationals are increasingly concerned about the state of China’s economy: China has not seen the economic turnaround post-Covid that many expected, with weak demand and sluggish growth pushing down consumer confidence. Amid the economic slowing, multinational companies are seeing sales decline as consumers cut back on spending and turn toward domestic brands — a trend executives believe will continue for the foreseeable future.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Sales are falling: According to advertising giant WPP, sales in the Chinese market have dropped nearly one-quarter in the last three months, reflecting the contraction of consumer appetite amid a sluggish economy. Foreign carmakers in particular have seen significant declines in sales, as consumer preference shifts toward EVs and away from the luxury auto market. Domestic competition is also playing a factor, as more and more Chinese brands outcompete multinationals in the Chinese market.

Distressed real estate markets are partly to blame: The heavily indebted Chinese real estate sector has seen growth slow since late 2021. With much of households’ wealth tied up in real estate, the downturn in the market has had a significant impact on consumer spending. “Uncertainty surrounding disposable income prospects, combined with further shrinkage of household wealth due to falling housing prices has led to a reduction in non-essential expenditure or a shift towards value-for-money product,” impacting not just restaurants but also other discretionary categories like “clothing, cosmetics, and gold and silver jewelry,” Fitch Ratings analysts say in a recent research note.

Still, a slow turnaround isn’t enough of a reason to turn one’s back on what is (arguably) the largest economy in the world, executives point out. “Even at current growth rates China still accounts for almost one-third of the world’s annual growth,” CEO of Yum China Joey Wat tells the Financial Times. And while lower sales hurt companies’ bottom lines in the present period, executives believe that the country’s “long-term fundamentals are still in place,” Anheuser-Busch InBev CEO Michel Doukeris tells the salmon-colored paper. Yet, despite a generally positive outlook, according to Wat “business is tough right now.”

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are mostly in the green this morning after one particularly volatile week that saw major sell-offs then sharp rebounds. The Kospi is looking at gains of 0.9%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is down 0.5% at dispatch time. The Nikkei is closed today as the Japanese observe Mountain Day.

MEANWHILE- Futures for US indexes are down this morning as investors await inflation data due on Wednesday.

EGX30

29,533

+2.7% (YTD: +18.6%)

USD (CBE)

Buy 49.17

Sell 49.30

USD (CIB)

Buy 49.18

Sell 49.28

Interest rates (CBE)

27.25% deposit

28.25% lending

Tadawul

11,772

+0.9% (YTD: -1.6%)

ADX

9,306

+0.6% (YTD: -2.8%)

DFM

4,195

0.0% (YTD: +3.3%)

S&P 500

5,344

+0.5% (YTD: +12.0%)

FTSE 100

8,168

+0.3% (YTD: +5.6%)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,675

+0.1% (YTD: +3.4%)

Brent crude

USD 79.66

+0.6%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 2.14

+0.8%

Gold

USD 2,473.40

+0.4%

BTC

USD 58,573

-4.1% (YTD: +38.6%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 2.7% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 4.0 bn (12.8% above the 90-day average). Local investors were net buyers. The index is up 18.6% YTD.

In the green: Elsewedy Electric (+11.0%), Alexandria Containers and Cargo Handling (+7.1%), and Eastern Company (+6.1%).

In the red: Edita (-0.7%).

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

Raya Holding distributed some 3.97 mn shares — worth EGP 8.9 mn — among its employees under its employee incentive and reward program, according to an EGX bulletin.

7

BLACKBOARD

What does lower expected public school enrollment mean for Egypt’s education spending?

Think a falling birth rate means less education spending? Think again. Lower birth rates are set to put the number of students enrolling at every level of public education on a declining trajectory by 2035. While the state has earmarked some EGP 294.6 bn for education spending during the current fiscal year — a 28.2% y-o-y increase — with plans to hire 150k teachers and build 16k classrooms, the education sector faces a funding gap of USD 7 bn for FY 2024-25.

(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Forecasts through 2035 suggest that public spending will not be sufficient to hit our targets, even in light of fewer births, a new Unicef report (pdf) based on Education Ministry and Capmas data says. More investment — particularly from the private sector — is needed to hit the Education Ministry’s targets and equip students with the skills for a changing global economy. We break down the report for you below.

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES WILL SHIFT STAFFING AND CLASSROOM NEEDS-

Declining birth rates by the numbers: Egypt’s fertility rate has been on the decline in recent years, from a recent high of 3.4 from 2013-2015 to 2.9 in 2022. We’re already seeing the effect of this decline in public school enrollment — between 2018/19 and 2022/23, Egypt saw the number of children enrolled at pre-primary public institutions fall 10.7% from 1.04 mn to 927k.

The size of pre-primary and primary cohorts have already peaked: As smaller cohorts move through the education system, Capmas projections cited by Unicef suggest that the number of students enrolled at each stage of education — pre-primary, primary, preparatory, and general secondary — will be in decline by 2035. Unicef estimates that pre-primary and primary enrollment have already peaked, with pre-primary enrollment expected to decline 16% to 3.8 mn and primary enrollment to decline approximately 29% to 11.7 mn between 2025 and 2035.

Preparatory and general secondary enrollment to peak in 2027: For preparatory schools, the number of enrolled students is due to rise from an estimated 6.8 mn in 2025 to 7.3 mn in 2027, before falling to 6.8 mn in 2035. Meanwhile, the number of students enrolled in public general secondary schools is expected to rise from 6.1 mn in 2025 to 7.3 mn in 2027, before falling to 7 mn in 2030.

The caveat: Unicef chose to use Capmas’ low population growth rate model when estimating changes in enrollment, so it’s possible that these numbers underestimate the size of incoming cohorts. If that’s the case, we could reach peak enrollment later than these estimates suggest.

Assessing our public education needs by our own metrics: The Unicef report attempts to estimate the number of teachers, classrooms, and schools needed to achieve different key performance indicators (KPIs) laid out in the Education Ministry’s Education Sector Plan 2023-2027, notably the student-teacher ratio, class size, and gross enrollment rate KPIs set for 2027. These KPIs are quite maximalist, aiming for large decreases in all metrics across all levels of pre-tertiary public education. Because primary and preparatory education are the two education levels that the government is trying to achieve full enrollment in, we’re going to focus on their needs in particular.

We need nearly 60% more primary school teachers: In order to bring the currently projected student-teacher ratio of 41:1 to the ministry’s goal of 26:1 by 2025, we would need to hire 197.7k teachers to add to the 357.7k registered with the Education Ministry in 2022/23. Even with the decrease in enrollment by 2035, we would still need 136.2k teachers on top of the 281.9k expected to be employed at that time, given expected attrition rates.

Meanwhile, higher enrollment means more classrooms: To reach full gross enrollment and the targeted primary school class size of 37.8 by 2025, the government would have to build 140.8k more classrooms, in addition to the 230.8k recorded in 2022/23. This represents a roughly 62% increase in the number of public primary school classrooms available. While the number of needed classrooms will decrease as smaller cohorts move through this system, there will be an acute need for more classrooms through 2035 should the government aim to achieve its enrollment targets.

It’s a similar story for preparatory education: In order to reach the ministry’s targeted 21:1 student-teacher, the state would need to hire 100.4k teachers in 2025, 169.5k in 2030, and 124.6k in 2035, taking into account expected teacher attrition. The pattern is similar for the number of classrooms, with an additional 58.8k classes needed — a 53% increase from the 110.1k classrooms registered in 2022/23 — in 2025, with the number of classes needed peaking at 195.5k in 2030 and then declining.

THE PUBLIC SHORTFALL IS A PRIVATE SECTOR OPPORTUNITY-

Unicef’s numbers reflect likely unachievable KPIs and should thus be taken with a grain of salt. Yet these projections do point to an important tradeoff within our education sector — namely, that increasing the number of students in classrooms is only useful insofar as there are teachers and physical and educational resources available to help them learn.

But with change, comes potential: The shift in our demographic profile also comes as the state aims to shift toward encouraging private sector investment — including in the education sector. The public shortfall offers an occasion for the private sector to get involved — to the benefit of all of Egypt’s kids.

Private sector investment desperately needs a shot in the arm. According to CIRA Education CEO Mohamed El Kalla speaking previously to Enterprise, the sector’s share in educational investments has dropped to 9% from 10% in recent years, with its inability to keep pace with demand for new schools and declining revenues from tuition fees playing a contributing role.

Financing is also a big challenge, with the high interest rate environment making it difficult for private sector players to access funding for capital expenditures on facilities and land purchases. According to industry players, bank funding needs to be more accessible for private and international schools, which are a long-term investment.

The state is already on it: The government is already taking steps to attract private investment, including via preparations to offer 24 schools to investors as part of the state’s public-private partnership program. It also recently announced that it had extended a set of 30-50% tax breaks on education investments until 2029.

More incentives need to be on offer: Closing the funding gap is going to require further incentives and facilitations. Policymakers need to get creative — and realistic — about how we fund public education in the years ahead.

One possibility — encouraging private players to harness debt: Private and international schools can take advantage of debt tools available in the market, such as future flow securitization — which our friends at CIRA Education became the first to tap last year with its EGP 800 mn issuance. This debt instrument — a cheaper alternative to bank loans — could also give companies that struggled to secure growth capital access to immediate funds, noted CIB board member and former Financial Regulatory Authority head Sherif Samy at an education-focused investment conference back in June. New market entrants that are struggling with the high cost of entry could also tap into real estate investment funds to help move forward with their expansion plans, he added.


Your top education stories for the week:

  • The summer break must come to an end: Public schools are back in session for the 2024/2025 academic year on Saturday, 21 September, with the second semester starting on 8 February 2025 and ending on 5 June 2025.
  • Looking to do your master’s in the UK? Applications for the British government’s Chevening scholarship opened on Tuesday. The scholarship offers full financial support for students to pursue an eligible master’s degree at a number of UK universities.
  • Thanaweya Amma results are out: Education Minister Mohamed Abdellatif held a press conference last week to announce the results of the Thanaweya Amma exams.

2024

SEPTEMBER

3-5 September (Tuesday-Thursday): Egypt International Airshow, El Alamein International Airport.

5 September (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

15 September (Sunday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

24 September (Tuesday): Enterprise Finance Forum, Cairo, Egypt

25-26 September (Wednesday-Thursday): The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank’s (AIIB) 2024 annual meeting, Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

25-28 September (Wednesday-Saturday): Cityscape Egypt, Egypt International Exhibition Center, Cairo.

OCTOBER

1-3 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Cairo Sustainable Energy Week, Cairo, Egypt.

6 October (Sunday): Armed Forces Day.

17 October (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

13-17 October (Sunday-Thursday): Cairo Water Week, Water and Climate: Building Resilient Communities, Cairo, Egypt.

21-27 October (Monday-Sunday): The World Bank and IMF annual meetings.

30 September (Monday): Ban on sugar exports expiration.

NOVEMBER

4-8 November (Monday-Friday): World Urban Forum, Cairo, Egypt.

12-15 November (Tuesday-Friday): Arab African Investment and International Cooperation Summit, Aswan, Egypt.

21 November (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

26-28 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Egypt Energy Show, Cairo, Egypt.

DECEMBER

26 December (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2H 2024: Gov’t to launch the Cairo Ring Road BRT buses.

3Q 2024: Egyptian-Armenian Joint Committee.

September 2024: Turkish-Egyptian Business Council meeting in Turkey.

September 2024: US-Egypt Strategic Dialogue, Cairo.

November 2024: Egypt to host the World Urban Forum (WUF12).

End of 2024: The launch of the high-speed train line linking Ain Sokhna with Al Alamein City.

End of 2024: Shalateen Mining Company to launch a gold exploration tender in the Eastern Desert.

2025

July 2025: The first operational trail of Egypt-KSA electricity interconnection line.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2Q 2025: Safaga Terminal 2 to start operations.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

Now Playing
Now Playing
00:00
00:00