Good morning, ladies and gents. It’s a capital flow type of morning.
Apis Partners has closed its third fund at USD 1.23 bn, and we have two exits worth watching: Beltone VC and Citadel out of Bosta at a 75% IRR, and NBE picking up 20% of Scatec's Obelisk solar project. Different stories, same underlying theme — assets here at home are clearing at prices the market is willing to pay.
Also on deck: Travco close to launching a new private airline, and our Coffee With BCG X’s Adham Abouzied on why most AI projects don’t pay off.FIRST, A SMALL CLARIFICATION- The new stamp tax is replacing the long-delayed capital gains tax on EGX-listed securities transactions — not capital gains tax across the board, as it may have sounded in our coverage of the news in yesterday’s issue. Capital gains made outside EGX trading remain subject to the relevant tax treatment.
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Cleared for takeoff
Keep an eye on the sky for a new private airline before the end of this year. Tourism giant Travco Group expects to wrap up the necessary licensing by August, Chairman Hamed El Chiaty tells EnterpriseAM. The company plans to kick off the USD 150 mn venture in October or November with a fleet of three Airbus aircraft, with a target of scaling up to four planes in the first year of operations, Civil Aviation Minister Sameh El Hefny said at a press conference recently.
The target market: The airline will focus on running charter flights to funnel inbound traffic from Europe and other global markets, the Arabic press reports. The Airbus fleet, which will feature a capacity of 180-220 seats per plane, is set to operate directly out of Egypt’s primary tourism hubs — Sharm El Sheikh, Marsa Alam, and Matrouh.
But there's some turbulence: Despite recent historic highs, the company may defer its launch by six months to a full year due to regional instability. “If the issue of the war and oil is not resolved, there is a very high probability that we will postpone the company’s opening until operating conditions are better,” El Chiaty warns. “The tourist will not be willing to pay an extra USD or EUR 180 due to the high cost of ins. and fuel.”
BACKGROUND- The plans confirm news teased by Hefny last month of a new local airline. Travco’s launch lines up with a broader state push to crowd private capital into the local aviation sector, following recent regulatory amendments designed to slash red tape, digitize services, and streamline the licensing process for new private airlines.
Endowed with potential investments
The government plans to offer 20 new public-private partnership investment prospects from the Endowments Authority’s property portfolio in 2H 2026, a government official tells EnterpriseAM. “The new investment [prospects] will include land for real estate investment, partnerships with real estate developers, residential units, and buildings that will be offered for conversion into hotel units or private hotels,” especially within the Historic Cairo masterplan, we’re told.
The authority manages the largest real estate portfolio in the country — valued at 137 EGP bn — but deploying that capital is a logistical headache. A significant chunk of these properties is still locked in the “old rent” system, our source tells us. Also, the government is still bogged down in clearing ongoing land encroachments and resolving judicial disputes over certain endowments.
CBE revises down our growth forecast
TheCentral Bank of Egypt now sees the economy growing at a 4.9% clip this fiscal year, down from its pre-war prediction of 5.1%, it said in its Monetary Policy Report (pdf) for 1Q 2026. As for next fiscal year, the bank now expects real GDP growth to come in at 4.8%, down from February’s forecast of 5.5%.
It’s a war-triggered downgrade: The CBE said the growth downgrade “reflects the repercussions of the conflict between Iran and the US on economic activity,” pointing to the war’s impact on tourism and Suez Canal revenues.
Inflation is on track to rise, the CBE says. The central bank expects annual headline inflation to average 16-17% in 2026 — the bank had previously expected inflation to reach its target of 7% (± 2%) in 4Q 2026. Next year’s inflation is expected to average 12-13%.
Happening tomorrow
Contemporary art gallery Tam.Gallery is hosting its Artists of Tomorrow exhibition on Tuesday, 12 May at the Grand Egyptian Museum. The invite-only opening at the museum’s Glass Court will bring together over 100 local artists, collectors, and cultural figures. EFG Holding is backing the event as art patron, alongside Ulter by Valu as financial partner.
PSA
WEATHER- Summer is getting serious in Cairo today, with a high of 34°C and a low of 21°C, according to our favorite weather app.
It’s also warm in Alexandria, though a few degrees cooler, with a high of 30°C and a low of 20°C.
Riyadh to Mumbai. Abu Dhabi to Singapore. Dubai to London. Cairo to Shenzhen.
The most important business stories in MENA aren’t happening inside MENA anymore — they’re happening at the edges, where regional capital meets global ambition.
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The big story abroad
The US-Iran stalemate crowds the front pages once again. President Donald Trump dismissed Iran’s response to Washington’s latest proposal, calling the demands “totally unacceptable.” Tehran reportedly floated moving a portion of its highly enriched uranium reserves to a separate nation and refused to decommission its nuclear infrastructure — this account was later denied by Iran’s semi-official outlet Tasnim.
Pakistan-Iran talks seem to have made some headway, with Qatar managing to export itsfirst LNG cargo — bound for a Pakistani port — through the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict started. Islamabad reportedly expects three more vessels to ship Qatari LNG through the waterway in the coming days.
The regional conflict is set to dominate the agenda during Trump’s summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing later this week. Both leaders have good reasons to resolve the Iran war, as it is taxing Trump’s domestic popularity and straining Beijing’s reliance on low-cost Iranian oil. Washington’s worries over AI and a proposed new dialogue with China are also reportedly on the table.
Meanwhile, in the world of AI: Alphabet has rapidly evolved into an AI powerhouse, significantly narrowing the valuation gap with chipmaking giant Nvidia. Analysts suggest that the strength of the Gemini model, combined with Google Search, Cloud, YouTube, and Waymo, positions the company as the primary contender to lead the next era of tech growth.
In a retrospective piece on the outgoing Federal Reserve Chair, Bloomberg chronicles Jerome Powell’s long battle to maintain the institution’s independence. Powell’s term saw heavy criticism from Trump, a probe from the Justice Department, and an unusual decision to stay on after his successor stepped up to assume the mantle.

*** It’s Blackboard day: We have our weekly look at the business of education in Egypt, from pre-K through the highest reaches of higher ed.
In today’s issue: We explore how the “university degree or bust” mindset is shifting in Egypt as short-term certifications and micro-credentials become the go-to way for professionals to stay relevant in a fast-moving, AI-dominated job market.





