The EGX has yet to capture the full economic weight of Egypt’s real estate sector. “Real estate as an asset class remains under-represented on the EGX despite accounting for roughly 18.5% of GDP,” Bonyan CEO Tarek Abdel Rahman tells EnterpriseAM. Although real estate stocks provide the liquidity and price discovery that direct ownership lacks, Abdelrahman says the market is still figuring out how the sector should be priced in equity form.

DATA POINT- The real estate index ended 2025 up 39.6%, roughly in line with the benchmark EGX30, which gained 40.7%. Gains were led by Talaat Mostafa Group (+44.8%), followed by Orascom Development Egypt (+35.8%), and Palm Hills Developments (+24.0%).

“The question is not whether real estate deserves a place in portfolios…but whether listed real estate stocks can close the gap between how the asset class is used in the economy and how it is priced on the exchange,” Arab African International Securities Head of Research Mahmoud Gad tells us.

“We view this gap as a disconnect between market pricing and fundamentals rather than a reflection of operational performance,” Madinet Masr CEO and President Abdallah Sallam tells EnterpriseAM. He points to Madinet Masr trading at roughly 3-4x earnings versus sector averages of 5-6x. “Historically, such valuation gaps tend to close as execution and results continue to be delivered,” Sallam explained.

What investors want

#1- Cash-visibility: Reported earnings have become a weak signal for investors, as most developers recognize revenue only upon delivery, leaving current results reflective of sales made three to four years ago rather than today’s demand environment, Al Ahly Pharos Head of Research Hany Genena told EnterpriseAM in part one of this story. Investors want liquidity, not paper returns, he said. Okaz Asset Management Managing Director Randa Hamed agrees with this view, arguing that the market is rewarding cash-visibility. “Investors are increasingly focused on quality rather than scale,” she said, pointing to a growing preference for developers that can adapt to new ownership and funding models.

Think Bonyan: “Bonyan’s IPO is an important development, precisely because it is not a real-estate developer, but a real-estate investment company,” Hamed tells us. In a market where affordability has deteriorated and capital has become more selective, listed vehicles that provide recurring cashflows offer a form of access that development-led listings do not.

#2- FX revenue streams: Any re-pricing is likely to be selective, favoring developers with tourism exposure, secondary housing projects, and geographic diversification, Gad added. Underlying demand in those segments remains supported by foreign buyers, particularly in coastal and hospitality-linked products, such as branded residences, Talaat Moustafa Group (TMG) IR Head Sameh Abdelraouf tells EnterpriseAM. These assets help generate hard-currency inflows and can feed through to equity performance at a time when investors remain highly sensitive to FX dynamics, he added.

Who’s positioned to benefit

The strongest positioning within Egypt’s real estate sector is clearly tilted toward TMG, Acumen Asset Management Managing Director Rana Adawi tells us, citing its diversified exposure across real estate and a strong hospitality portfolio. She noted that hospitality assets are benefiting from record tourism revenues and the sector’s ongoing recovery. She added that Orascom Development Holding comes second in terms of attractiveness.

From an investment strategy perspective, Adawi said a long-term, buy-and-hold approach in selective names with upside potential makes sense, particularly for companies with exposure to tourism or those trading at attractive valuations.

CI Capital’s MENA top picks (pdf) underscore a clear preference for large-cap, scaled, cash-generating real estate platforms, with Emaar Properties and TMG standing out on valuation and upside. Emaar, rated overweight, trades at AED 13.3 versus a target price of AED 16.7, implying 25.5% upside, with a forward P/E of 6.8x and a dividend yield exceeding 7% by 2025. This reflects its mature, income-backed model and balance-sheet strength. TMG, also overweight, offers a more aggressive rerating case, trading at EGP 71 against a target price of EGP 152, implying 114% upside, with a 2025 P/E of around 11.6x.

“With top real estate companies trading at very attractive multiples, we are forecasting our selected companies to trade at single-digit P/E levels in 2026,” Hamed said, citing estimates that place TMG at around 11x earnings, Palm Hills Developments at roughly 5.2x, and Orascom Development Egypt at about 7.4x.

What 2026 has in store

Consensus expectations point to steady earnings growth for EGX-listed real estate developers over the medium term, with analysts forecasting around 14% annual growth, Al Ahly Sabour Real Estate Development Company Chairman and MD Ahmed Sabour tells EnterpriseAM. This backdrop would help sustain investor interest even as stock-level repricing remains uneven.

The macro picture: Easing interest rates over the medium to long term could support valuations, particularly if financing conditions improve and market liquidity deepens, Gad said. The maturity of high-yield certificates of deposit issued since early 2024 is expected to release liquidity back into the market, part of which could flow toward real estate, Abdelraouf tells EnterpriseAM.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)

Tags: