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Why is Apple abandoning their tried-and-tested Supercycle?

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TONIGHT

Government considers relief measures after phone exemption ends

Good afternoon, friends, and welcome to the start of a shorter-than-usual workweek. Following backlash over the phone exemption rollback, the government is now discussing relief measures for expats — from extra handset allowances to customs installment plans. Elsewhere (and as per usual), Trump ramps up tariff threats, this time against Canada, and we look at how Apple’s staggered iPhone launch could shake up regional distribution.

*** It’s Inside Industry day — your weekly Sunday briefing of all things industrial in Egypt. Inside Industry explores what it takes to turn Egypt into a manufacturing and export powerhouse, ranging from initial investment and planning through to product distribution, land allocation, industrial processes, supply chain management, labor, automation and technology, inputs and exports, and regulation and policy.

In today’s issue: We’re spotlighting Egypt’s dairy giant Bel Group for January’s Manufacturer of the Month.

THE BIG STORY TODAY-

?Hold the phone: Discussions are currently underway to extend new incentives for Egyptians living abroad to mitigate the impact of the recent decision to scrap the exceptional customs exemptions on mobile phones, three government sources tell EnterpriseAM. Proposals include allowing Egyptians with permanent residency abroad to bring in one additional phone annually for work-related commitments, and the introduction of airport-based installment plans for customs duties.

^^ Read the full story in tomorrow’s edition of EnterpriseAM.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

? US President Donald Trump’s tariff campaign has picked back up, threatening Canada with a 100% tariff on goods sold in the US if the country reaches a deal with China. Trump has accused Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney of turning Canada into a “drop off port” for Chinese goods, suggesting that this is China’s tactic to evade US tariffs. The threat comes after Carney announced a preliminary deal earlier this month with Beijing to cut tariffs and remove trade barriers.

^^Read more on: CNBC.

Trump’s threats to attack Iran’s government after its violent crackdown on protestors has led to several European airline suspensions to Middle East destinations over geopolitical concerns. Air France temporarily cancelled flights between Paris and Dubai over the weekend, and KLM suspended flights to Dubai, Riyadh, Dammam, and Tel Aviv until further notice, avoiding airspace over Iran and Iraq as well.

ALSO- Some 10k flights are expected to be canceled due to forecasts of a major winter storm sweeping across the US. The storm is expected to bring heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain over the eastern two-thirds of the country. In response, US crude and natural gas production experienced a drop while spot power prices surged — Energy Aspects predicted a total loss of around 300k barrels a day and 86 bn cubic feet of natural gas production.

^^Read more on: Bloomberg, CNBC, and Reuters.

** CATCH UP QUICK on the top stories from today’s EnterpriseAM:

enterprise

☀️ TOMORROW’S WEATHER- We’re in for a warm, windy day in the capital tomorrow, with temperatures reaching a high of 25°C and a low of 12°C, according to our favorite weather app.

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FOR YOUR COMMUTE

The end of Apple’s Supercycle and the rise of margin protection

For fifteen years, the global consumer electronics’ rhythmic calendar has been set by a single event: Apple’s September keynote. This massive, synchronized injection of inventory defined 4Q for retailers, carriers, and suppliers alike — but that era is reportedly ending in 2026.

Apple is reportedly breaking up its lineup into a staggered release schedule — high-end Pros (and the rumored foldable) in the fall, base models in the spring — and signaling that the economics of hardware have fundamentally shifted. The “Supercycle” is dead, and the era of margin protection has begun.

The primary driver here isn’t marketing, it’s manufacturing physics. The iPhone 18 Pro is expected to run on TSMC’s 2-nanometer process with the new A20 Pro chip. The silicon is exponentially more difficult and expensive to produce than its predecessors. Apple’s calculation is straightforward: they cannot afford to put low-yield, high-cost silicon into a mass-market base model at USD 800 on day one.

By holding back the standard iPhone 18 until 2Q 2027, they buy six months for TSMC’s yields to improve and unit costs to drop. They are effectively sacrificing volume to protect the margin on their flagship silicon. The numbers support this reading: Apple will ship around 250 mn iPhones in 2026 — a modest 2% growth in a smartphone market expected to decline 4%, according to some analysts.

What does this mean for MENA distributors? For operators in the UAE, KSA, and Egypt, this shift presents a logistical headache. Regional retailers rely heavily on “base model” volume to drive footfall during critical times like the Gitex Global show and holiday shopping windows, and a September launch limited to USD 1.1k+ Pros and an expected USD 2k+ foldable would create a cashflow shock. It forces distributors to stock the most expensive, highest-risk inventory during their busiest season, while the volume-driving base models are pushed to the quiet spring quarter.

The working capital implications are significant, particularly for markets where financing and installment plans drive the majority of premium smartphone sales.

Egyptian importers face an additional calculus. With the base iPhone 18 delayed until 2Q 2027, the iPhone 17 becomes the defacto mid-range option for 18 months — far longer than the typical 12-month cycle that drives trade-in programs and promotions.

Apple is wagering that its ecosystem is sticky enough to force high-end users to upgrade in the fall regardless of price, while training the mass market to wait. It’s a risky bifurcation, but in a world of slowing hardware innovation and rising silicon costs, it may be the only way to keep the margins growing.

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ON THE TUBE TONIGHT

Egyptian TV hit Midterm gets top marks

? Midterm has become an undeniable phenomenon — reportedly surpassing 1 bn views even before reaching its finale, and dominating social media for weeks. The 30-episode series, directed by Mariam El Bagoury and written by Mohamed Sadek with the Barah Workshop, follows a group of Egyptian and Arab university students, each with heavy family baggage, navigating the minefield of social politics playing out on a university campus.

Each is sucked into drama at home, at uni, and within the friend group upon joining a mysterious and anonymously run group therapy application called Dr. Freud. Over time, the very tool that gives them a sense of belonging and connection transforms into a psychological weapon that threatens to expose their secrets and fuels conflict within the group.

The show’s greatest strength is its characters. The ensemble cast feels remarkably realistic, using slang that actual Egyptian college students use and dressing in appropriate attire — casual but fashion-forward. Yasmina El Abd delivers a stellar and challenging role as Tia, a psychologically complex character at the center of the drama, playing against Jala Hesham, who holds her own as Naomi. The titular scenes between these two steal the show, barreling towards a fierce stand-off with a major twist in the final batch of episodes. Keep your eyes peeled for singers Ziad Zaza and Donia Wael, who contributed a few tracks to the show’s soundtrack, and Youssef Raafat who gives another standout performance.

The series tackles weighty themes that widely affect today’s youth — parental divorce, physical and verbal abuse, culture shock, mental health struggles — without seeming overly contrived. It succeeds because it takes young people’s struggles seriously without being preachy. At its core, the series delivers a powerful message: unresolved trauma and mental illness will come back to haunt you and ruin your relationships, but it’s never too late to seek help and forgiveness.

WHERE TO WATCH- You can find Midterm on Watch It and Shahid, and watch the trailer on YouTube (watch, runtime: 2:07).

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Sports

Zamalek takes the field, Manchester United and Arsenal face off, and Barça vies for lead

It’s an exciting week out on the pitch, and today is no exception. We’ve got some action from the CAF Champions League and Confederation Cup, alongside the usual European league servings.

Close to home, the White Knights take the field tonight. Seven matches are taking place today in the third round of the CAF Confederation Cup, prime among them being the clash between Zamalek and group leaders Al Masry at Burj Al Arab Stadium at 9pm. The match will be broadcast on BeIN Sports 2.


Four matches are on schedule for matchweek 23 of the English Premier League, led by league headliners Arsenal facing off fifth-placed Manchester United. The Red Devils enter the match with high spirits following a 2-0 victory in the Manchester Derby. Meanwhile, the Gunners have their eyes set on a W to bounce back from two consecutive draws and put some distance between them and second-placed Man City. The match will kick off at 6:30pm on BeIN Sports 1.

Also in the Premier League at 4pm:

  • Newcastle vs. Aston Villa (BeIN Sports 5);
  • Brentford vs. Nottingham Forest (BeIN Sports 3);
  • Crystal Palace vs. Chelsea (BeIN Sports 6).


Over in La Liga, Barcelona is gearing up for a decisive match against Real Oviedo, sitting just two points away from overtaking Real Madrid to lead the La Liga scoreboard. Fans are eager to see the team’s strong seasonal form continue as they look to capitalize off of the home-field advantage at Barcelona’s Spotify Camp Nou Stadium. Whistles will block at 5:15 on BeIN Sports 2.


? In the first round of the Main Stage of the African Handball Championship, the Pharaohs will be facing off against Algeria at 4:30pm on OnTime Sports 1.

This publication is proudly sponsored by

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Mark Your Calendar

Ramadan shopping at the Cairo Flea Market in Heliopolis

? Up for some pre-Ramadan shopping? Cairo Flea Market is hosting a special Ramadan edition at its new location Heliopolis’ Ghurnata Community Space on Saturday, 7 February. Browse vintage finds, local treasures, and get an early dose of the Ramadan spirit before all the family gatherings kick off. Doors are open from 10am to 10pm.

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GO WITH THE FLOW

What the markets are doing on 25 January 2026

The EGX30 rose 0.9% at today’s close on turnover of EGP 6.7 bn (22.5% above the 90-day average). International investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 12.0% YTD.

In the green: Sidpec (+6.4%), Raya Holding (+6.4%), and Juhayna (+4.9%).

In the red: Credit Agricole (-2.6%), Misr Cement (-2.2%), and Fawry (-1.9%).

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INSIDE INDUSTRY

Manufacturer of the Month: Bel Group

? MANUFACTURER OF THE MONTH– Each month, we spotlight a major industrial player shaping Egypt’s manufacturing landscape. Whether homegrown or international, these companies play a crucial role in driving the country’s industrial ambitions.

This month we sat down with Bel Group Plant Director Khaled Attia, the Egyptian arm of leading French dairy group Bel, to discuss the group’s continued success here at home and how they have encouraged some local suppliers to branch out regionally.

A global leader in healthy cheeses and fruit- and plant-based snacks, the group’s journey in Egypt began nearly three decades ago in 1998 and culminated into the occupation of a 29k square meter site in Tenth of Ramadan with 25 cheese production lines including household names such as La Vache Qui Rit, Kiri, Abu El Walad, Regal Picon, and Mini Babybel. Since 2008, the company has injected c. EUR 150 mn into Egypt to bolster its factories and distribution capabilities.

The company sources nearly 90% of its packaging materials by volume — and 50% by value — from the local market. However, primary raw materials like milk and butter are still 90% imported as local quality hasn’t quite yet reached required standards. Bel Egypt has successfully transferred global expertise to local suppliers through a rigorous auditing process that can take up to two years to ensure they meet French standards. This high bar has even enabled some local suppliers to export to Bel factories in other countries, such as Morocco.

Why is full localization difficult to achieve? Take your pick. For one, Egypt lacks standardized milk collection points. Local farms are yet to implement specific nutritional standards for livestock to ensure consistent milk quality and transitioning to 100% local milk requires long-term infrastructure investment.

These challenges, however, might just be windows. Manufacturers in Egypt enjoy a slew of benefits; including relatively low energy costs, abundant skilled labor at competitive prices, a strong local packaging industry that covers 90% of the group’s domestic needs, and — last but not least — a strategic geographic location for exports. Bel Egypt has since been able to turn manufacturing hurdles into possibilities via three pillars:

  • Implementing energy-saving projects to cut costs;
  • Maintaining a three-month buffer of raw materials to absorb supply chain shocks;
  • And introducing affordable products to retain consumers without excessive price hikes.

80% of Bel Egypt’s production is exported to 19 countries led by Saudi Arabia and the GCC. Supported by trade agreements like COMESA and the Greater Arab FreeTrade Area, the company is expanding into West Africa, in addition to new markets such as Syria. Bel Egypt’s export value has reached EUR 1.4 bn over the past 15 years, with plans to increase production to 30k tons — up from 24k today — by 2030, as well as double its market share — currently at 50% for several products.


?️ JANUARY

22 January - 3 February (Thursday-Tuesday): Cairo International Book Fair.

23-26 January (Friday-Monday): Art Cairo at the Grand Egyptian Museum.

25 January (Sunday): January 25th Revolution / National Police Day.

25 January (Sunday): Fatma Said at the GEM.

26 January (Monday): Alaa El Sheikh X Boom Room at Open Air Mall, Madinaty.

29 January (Thursday): Official holiday in observance of the 25 January Revolution and Police Day.

29 January (Thursday): Tommyy at Theatro Arkan.

30 January (Friday): Cairo Marathon normal registration ends.

30-31 January (Friday-Saturday): Darb 15 Garage Sale in Maadi.

31 January (Saturday): Eyad El Mogy: El Sabt El Momtaz - The Last Dance at Hilton Cairo Grand Nile.

FEBRUARY

6 December - 15 February (Saturday-Sunday): Cairo Prints at Cairopolitan in Garden City.

6 February (Friday): Cairo Marathon at Heliopolis, Merryland Park.

7 February (Saturday): Cairo Flea Market at Ghurnata Community Space, Heliopolis.

11-15 February (Wednesday-Sunday): Animatex at AUC Tahrir Square.

13 February (Friday): Bryan Adams at the GEM.

17 February (Tuesday): First day of Ramadan (TBD).

MARCH

20 March (Friday): Eid Al-Fitr (TBD).

APRIL

2 April (Thursday): Hany Shaker at Theatro Arkan.

13 April (Monday): Sham El Nessim.

25 April (Saturday): Sinai Liberation Day.

MAY

1 May (Friday): Labor Day.

26 May (Tuesday): Arafat’s Day.

JUNE

16 June (Tuesday): Islamic New Year.

30 June (Tuesday): June 30th Revolution.

JULY

23 July (Thursday): July 23rd Revolution 1952.

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