Good afternoon, all. It is officially the first day of fall and we can’t wait for the temperature to drop.
THE BIG STORY TODAY-
Egypt seeks more Israeli gas: The Madbouly government is reportedly planning to increase its imports of Israeli gas by 20% to 1.2 bn cf a day starting next month in efforts to cut down on LNG imports for the winter period, a government official told Asharq Business.
THE BIG STORY ABROAD-
The foreign press is still focused on the rising tension between Israel and Hezbollah following the Israeli airstrike on Beirut’s southern suburb that killed senior Hezbollah commander Ibrahim Aqil and 15 other members. Israel’s army noted over 100 rockets having been fired across the border overnight in response, with BBC reporting another 85 being launched Sunday morning. (Reuters | New York Times | The Guardian)
Get Enterprise daily
The roundup of news and trends that move your markets and shape corporate agendas delivered straight to your inbox.
** CATCH UP QUICK on the top stories from today’s EnterpriseAM:
No more load shedding: “The electricity will not be cut off again... and there will be no more load shedding,” Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly said last week.
Egypt signals it's ready to issue Eurobonds — and other issuances — for the first time since 2021: Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk told foreign investors in London last week that Egypt was set to issue USD 3 bn in Eurobonds and other debt instruments in the current fiscal year coming to a close at the end of June.
We’re in line for USD 129 mn from the US: Egypt will receive USD 129 mn from the US government as part of its “commitment to advancing joint US-Egypt priorities.”
*** It’s Inside Industry day —your weekly briefing of all things industrial in Egypt. Inside Industry focuses each Sunday on what it takes to turn Egypt into a manufacturing and export powerhouse, ranging from initial investment and planning to product distribution, through to land allocation to industrial processes, supply chain management, labor, automation and technology, inputs and exports, regulation and policy.
In today’s issue: We take a look into BMI’s crystal ball on our pharma sector.
☀️ TOMORROW’S WEATHER- The temps are cooling down, with tomorrow seeing highs of 32°C and a low of 23°C in the capital, according to our favorite weather app.
Men between the ages of 25 to 54 have slowly been dropping out of the workforce and showing no interest in looking for employment, reports CNBC. 10.5% of US men in this age group — 6.8 mn in total —- are not only unemployed, but are not looking for employment. This is a big jump from the rate of 2.5% in 1954, as documented by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to external sources.)
What’s going on? A study conducted by the Pew Research Center found a link to education. Men who do not receive a college education leave the workforce at higher rates than those who do. “The big impacts are on the non-college-educated groups on their ability to enter and stay in the labor market,” said Jeff Strohl, a director of the Center on Education and the Workforce at Georgetown University. So why isn’t the rate steady? The number of men enrolling in college has been dropping over the past decade.
Higher education is becoming less and less appealing. More people are electing not to attend university to avoid student loans, which often leave Americans in debt for close to 20 years. Interest rates on these loans have risen by 44% in just five years. Gen Z undergraduates are now embracing the NEET lifestyle — Not in Employment, Education, or Training — and research shows that men are more likely than women to do so.
Experts are concerned. “The long-term decline in labor force participation by so-called prime-age men is a tremendous worry for our society, our economy, and probably our political system,” said Nicholas Eberstadt, a political economist at the American Enterprise Institute. In fact, the global employment-to-population ratio has been steadily declining since Y2K. Over the last 24 years, the employment rate has dropped from almost 5%.
OpenAI doesn’t want users poking around to see what its latest AI model is “thinking”. Since launching the new Strawberry AI model family last week, Open AI has been on high alert, sending warning emails and threatening bans to anyone who dares to look too close, Wired reports. When it comes to their shiny new o1-preview and o1-mini models, they’d prefer to keep the secrets under wraps.
What’s the big deal? Unlike previous models, this one is designed to think through problems in a step-by-step manner — like in your math exams where you have to break down how you got your answer. Cool, right? Here’s the twist: When you ask ChatGPT the question, you don’t actually get to see the breakdown — instead, OpenAI hides it, giving you a filtered version cleaned up by a second AI. This is what piqued hackers and AI enthusiasts’ interest, who are now racing to find out o1’s raw chain of thought by using jailbreaks and prompt injections — some have had luck but nothing concrete has surfaced yet.
But OpenAI is watching. If anyone dares to ask for the model’s deduction methods — even the term “reasoning trace” is flagged —, you might end up getting a stern email from the company.
Why the gatekeeping? OpenAI argues that these hidden chains of thought allow them to better monitor the model for any shady behavior — just in case AI gets too smart and starts getting manipulative. There's also the other case of not giving too much away to competitors — AI researchers love to train rival models using OpenAI’s outputs (even though it’s against their terms), and raw reasoning data would be a goldmine for anyone looking to create a knockoff version.
Remember: OpenAI was founded with the promise of being an open source model to make AI accessible to everyone. It’s even in the name. The more the revolutionary tech inflates, the more the company is keeping its code under wraps. Tech titan and chronically online internet troll Elon Musk, who co-founded the company with Sam Altman back in 2015, sued OpenAI for abandoning their original mission, claiming that they misled him and other backers. The company responded in a long blog post that contained several emails showing that not only was Musk aware of their gameplay, but that he was on board with it.
Is OpenAI being hypocritical? OpenAI has built its models by hoovering up information from across the internet, scraping user data without consent or unlawfully using copyrighted material. So while they’re locking down on their own data, one can’t help wondering: if OpenAI can source information from the internet freely, shouldn’t they be playing by their own rules?
One person’s comedy is another person’s tragedy.Kevin Can F**k Himself goes beyond the traditional sitcom. Told from Kevin’s (Eric Petersen) perspective, the show is a laugh-track documentation of the oddball husband who frustrates his uptight finger-wagging wife, Allison (Annie Murphy of Schitt’s Creek fame). But when we switch to Allison’s perspective, it is a dark tale of a loveless marriage to a narcissistic man-child.
(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to external sources.)
The comedy: The show begins by mimicking the clichés of a bad multicam sitcom, where Kevin haplessly finds himself in comedic situations along with his quirky Barney Rubble-esque friend Neil (Alex Bonifer), brother to neighbor Patty, who is in a similar situation to Allison. The Kevin scenes are brightly lit and highly saturated, and use multi-cam shots to stay true to the genre.
The drama: Allison’s scenes are single-camera shots, as are most dramas, with dark, gritty colors that mimic her unhappiness. As Kevin’s comedy continues in its own unchanging sit-com way, Allison starts to plan a murder.
A good comedy and a good drama are difficult to pull off on their own, let alone together. At different points, it feels like the writers, producers, and directors are spread too thin. The episodes seem to drag at times, and the comedy is too over-the-top at times. But that may be part of the gimmick. What if Kevin Can Go F**k Himself isn’t just satirizing sitcoms, but dramas as well?
⚽ The fight for the title has begun earlier than expected: Man City is going head to head with Arsenal at the Etihad Stadium at 6:30pm in the Premier League’s fifth round. The rivalry between last season’s champions and runners-up heats up again as both teams aim for the top spot. Man City is sitting with a full 12 points from four matches, while Arsenal enters the game with 10 points from three victories and a draw.
Barcelona is looking to maintain their victory streak. The Blaugranas have their upcoming match with Villarreal which kicks off at 7:30pm in La Liga’s sixth round. Sitting atop the table with a perfect start, Barcelona is aiming to continue their unbeaten run, a form it hasn't seen in years.
Over in Serie A, we have Derby della Madonnina: Inter Milan is playing against AC Milan at 9:45pm in the fifth round of Serie A. Inter Milan, last season’s champions, has had a rocky start — dropping four points and slipping to sixth place. Its rival, AC Milan, hasn’t fared much better — losing seven points and sitting in tenth. Both teams are desperate for a victory to reset their season and get back on track.
Other key European matches today:
Brighton vs Nottingham Forest (Premier League, 4pm)
Bayer Leverkusen vs Wolfsburg (Bundesliga, 4:30pm)
Rayo Vallecano vs Atlético Madrid (La Liga, 10pm)
Stuttgart vs Dortmund (Bundesliga, 6:30pm)
Roma vs Udinese (Serie A, 7pm)
Closer to home: Al Masry will be going against Al Hilal Benghazi for the second leg of the Confederation African Cup (CAF) round of 32 at 8pm. The first leg saw Al Hilal secure a 3-2 victory.
Related
? OUT AND ABOUT- (all times CLT)
HAPPENING THIS WEEK-
The Ice Warrior Challenge makes a thrilling return to Ski Egypt, featuring over 20 challenging obstacles at freezing temperatures, this is the ultimate endurance test for athletes. The event will take place on Saturday, 28 September starting at 9am. Book your spot here.
For the love of tapestry. Today in History is Amsterdam-based Egyptian artist Dina Danish’s first exhibition in Egypt in nearly a decade. Composed of a collection of appliqué tapestries that resemble medieval banners, the exhibition is still open at the Gypsum Gallery till Saturday, 30 October.
Warm up those vocal chords. Join this Singing Masterclass with world-renowned opera singer, Farrah El Dibany on Friday September 27 at AUC Tahrir. The class will include breathing and singing exercises, vocal techniques for any musical style, and insights on studying abroad and on building a global career in music for both beginners and experienced singers. Book your spot here.
Music that captures the soul. Witness Fouad & Mounib as they display different human emotions through their Piano and Violin duets. Head to Theatro Arkan on Thursday, 26 September at Theatro Arkan, and will begin at 8pm. Get your tickets here.
HAPPENING LATER-
Celebrate the mawlid by attendingEl Leila El Kebira’s musical performance, inspired by the poetry of Salah Jahin and the music of Sayed Mekkawy, at the Rawabet Art Space in Downtown Cairo over three days: September 26, 27, and 28. Shows begin at 8pm, get your tickets here.
TheIce Warrior Challenge makes a thrilling return to Ski Egypt, featuring over 20 challenging obstacles at freezing temperatures, this is the ultimate endurance test for athletes. The event will take place on Saturday 28 September starting at 9am. Book your spot here.
MENA’s first and only design-film festival is back:Film My Design festival is back for its third edition — under the theme Designing Our Lives for a Better Future —, taking place from Thursday, 3 October to Saturday, 12 October at Zawya Cinema. The festival features film screenings, masterclasses, a motion design exhibition, VR immersive experiences, and much more. Buy your tickets here.
Relive the magic of Amy Winehouse withThe Amy Winehouse Band. This isn’t just a tribute band, it’s Winehouse’s actual original band keeping her spirit and legacy alive. Witness the era defining music at The Theater in Somabay on Saturday 5 October. Grab your tickets here.
Go on a run in Egypt’s historic city at the Luxor Half Marathon. TriFactory’s annual event will take place on Friday, 11 October. Pick between a 21km or 10km race, or a short family run. You can register here.
Related
? EARS TO THE GROUND-
Have you ever found yourself pondering the mysteries of the past? The Ancients is your time machine to all things ancient history. Hosted by Tristan Hughes, this podcast dives deep into captivating themes, featuring interviews with historians and archaeologists who share their insights on everything from Neolithic Britain to the Fall of Rome.
Joined by Egyptologist Joyce Tyldesley, Hughes unpacks the origins of Ra, Hathor, Osiris, and Isis, and their creation stories in Origins of the Egyptian Gods — no stone is left unturned (or pyramid unexamined).
It’s a history class that comes with a side of intrigue and just the right amount of wit. The Ancients not only educates but also entertains, making it a must-listen for anyone curious about the tales that shaped our world.
The EGX30 rose 0.3% at today’s close on turnover of EGP 3.7 bn (5.7% below the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net sellers. The index is up 24.7% YTD.
In the green: Egypt Kuwait Holding- EGP (+5.6%), Madinet Masr (+5%), and Emaar Misr (+4.5%).
In the red: Oriental Weavers (-1.6%), Abu Qir Fertilizers (-1.6%), and CIB (-1.5%).
A look into BMI’s crystal ball on our pharma sector: Despite current turbulence in the local pharma sector, it is expected to see positive growth in local currency terms through to 2033 on the back of government support for domestic production, population growth, and increasing healthcare coverage, according to the 4Q 2024 Egypt Pharma Report by Fitch Solutions’ research unit BMI.
(Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background as well as external sources.)
This year’s sales will fare well in EGP terms but see a dip in USD terms: Pharma sales are projected to grow 10.6% y-o-y to EGP 152.8 bn in 2024 as the government moves towards raising pharma prices to support local producers. In USD terms, however, sales will see a 24.7% y-o-y drop to USD 3.4 bn amid the effects of the weaker EGP post-float and high levels of inflation.
ICYMI- Drug price hikes are slated through the end of next year: Some 1.6k pharma products will reportedly be subject to price hikes between September and the end of 2025. Some med prices were hiked an average of 25% in July as per requests from local pharma companies in response to a weakened EGP. The Egyptian Drug Authority (EDA) in April was said to be studying a number of requests and proposals for new med pricing schemes in lieu of the government’s mandatory pricing scheme, under which prices are set for a five-year period.
Sales will continue to climb in the medium- and long-term: The market’s value will jump to EGP 218.1 bn (USD 4.3 bn) by 2028, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.6% in EGP terms and -1% in USD terms. By 2033, the market will be worth EGP 325.9 bn (USD 5.8 bn) after growing at a CAGR of 9% (2.5% in USD terms).
So will expenditures: Pharma spending per capita will move from USD 40.1 in 2023 to USD 35.2 in 2028 and USD 44.4 in 2033, driven primarily by population growth and the implementation of universal health coverage. However, pharma spending as a percentage of total healthcare spending is expected to drop to 34.6% in 2033 from 36.1% in 2023 due downward pressure on drug prices and a faster expansion of medical services.
Egypt hasthe largest pharma market in North Africa, ranking ninth in the region and 72nd out of 109 markets globally. While the overall market is poised to expand, there are risks to pharma companies operating in the market, including a weakened currency and trade disruptions in the Red Sea.
The local market is relatively conducive to innovation: Egypt’s risk score stands at 58.1 out of 100, according to BMI’s Innovative Pharmaceuticals Risk/Reward Index (RRI), which measures the attractiveness of a country's pharma market for launching innovative meds. The score, which is higher than the regional average of 56.0, reflects “a matured pharma market, with an extensive domestic manufacturing capacity and an ever-expanding universal health coverage,” the report reads.
Expanding local drug production tops the state’s agenda: “Efforts to bolster the local pharma sector to reduce reliance on drug imports has risen to the top of Egypt's government’s agenda,” the report reads, citing a partnership between the Public Enterprises Ministry, state-owned pharma manufacturer HoldiPharma, and Indian drug producer SysChem as an example. The partners in 2022 kicked off a study on the country’s preparedness for the local production of key drug ingredients. The study focused on infrastructure, GMP compliance, and expanding production at El Nasr Pharma Chemicals Company for essential drugs like metformin, paracetamol, colchicine, and acetylsalicylic acid.
And so is increasing exports: The government expects pharma and cosmeceutical exports to reach USD 1.5 bn during the current fiscal year, up from 1 bn the previous fiscal year, and aims to push the number to USD 2 bn within two years and USD 3 bn before 2030, according to Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly. Exports are set to expand over the medium term, according to the report. “Most exports will continue to target other Middle East and North Africa markets, with a focus on Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Yemen, Sudan and Jordan,” the report said.
The market is largely import-reliant: Despite the government’s efforts to achieve self-sufficiency in manufacturing, the market relies on imports — particularly for advanced meds — due to technological constraints and the limited capacity of local producers. Growing domestic production is expected to somewhat dampen this reliance, but raw materials will continue to be imported. Pharma imports are forecasted to grow to EGP 77.1 bn in 2024 from EGP 69.7 bn in 2023 before reaching EGP 118.9 bn in 2028. Roughly a third of our imports currently come from the EU.
MARKET SEGMENTS-
The local pharma market is expected to see growth across all segments, with generics and prescription drugs showing the strongest performance. Patented drugs and over-the-counter (OTC) drugs are projected to grow but lose market share over time.
Prescription drugs will remain to hold the lion’s share of the market in the medium-term, accounting for 87.2% of all pharma spending by 2028, up from 85.7% in 2023. Spending is forecasted to grow 5.8% y-o-y to EGP 125.3 bn in 2024 from EGP 118.4 bn in 2023 before hitting EGP 190.1 bn in 2028, delivering a five-year CAGR of 9.9%. This growth will be driven by a growing population, rising chronic disease burden, and the rollout of the country's health ins. system.
Generic drugs are next in line, projected to account for 66.9% of total drug spending and 76.7% of prescription spending by 2028. In the meantime, patented drugs will lose market share, declining to 19% of total pharma spending by 2033 from 20.7% in 2023 despite growth. Similarly, the market share of OTC drugs is forecasted to decline to 12.8% of total spending in 2028 from 14.3% in 2023.
Your top industrial development stories for the week:
Mauritian investors eye e-waste recycling project in Egypt: A group of investors from Mauritius is looking to establish a large-scale electronic waste recycling project in Egypt. (Statement)
Egypt Edition 
MENA+ Edition 
UAE Edition 
Saudi Edition 
MENA <> India Corridors 
Logistics (MENA) 
Climate (MENA) 
Share Issue
