☕ The global coffee market is entering 2026 with a massive supply surplus. A record-breaking Brazilian harvest — projected at some 76 mn bags — has sent international commodity prices into a tailspin. In any other market, this would be the dawn of the cheap latte era. In Egypt, where coffee consumption per capita doubled between 2017 and 2021, the reality on the ground is different.

For Egyptian roasters, the global price drop isn’t a signal to cut prices — it’s a lifeline to rebuild balance sheets decimated by currency volatility and logistics bottlenecks. Despite the surplus in Brazil, local retail prices are remaining sticky as business owners prioritize margin recovery and quality investments over price wars.

RitualCoffee, founded by Hussein Bahgat (LinkedIn), sits at the center of this tension. As a roaster for major F&B brands and a consultant for new entrants through his Ritual Academy, Bahgat sees that the story isn’t the price of the bean, but the health of the ecosystem.

We sat down with Bahgat to discuss what he calls the “Brazil sneeze,” why 10% global drops only mean marginal local relief, and why the next wave of Egyptian coffee growth is happening in the home kitchen. Edited excerpts from our conversation:

EnterpriseAM: How quickly do global price drops translate to lower costs for Egyptian roasters?

Hussein Bahgat: Unlike previous years, a global price drop could actually translate more directly this time. Egypt has its own internal green coffee pricing dynamic, separate from global indices. When global prices drop sharply, local suppliers often hold inventory rather than sell at a loss, which can paradoxically create shortages and push local prices up even as global benchmarks fall.

In a 10-20% global drop, Egyptian roasters might realistically see 6-8% relief at the wholesale level after FX, local market dynamics, and supply chain factors. Last year was a disaster for margins — any relief in 2026 is a recovery, not a windfall.

E: How is Ritual positioning itself to take advantage of potentially lower input costs?

HB: We always invest in innovation, better sourcing, and new machinery. We are planning to further automate our processes to optimize operations and better serve our customers. Our plan this year is to focus on more consumer-facing products — building on concepts like our holiday advent calendar and potentially exploring RTD products and other new formats. Lowering prices is not realistic right now. Last year’s volatility wiped out margins, and we’re still recovering.

E: If green bean costs do fall significantly, where do you see that margin going?

HB: Recovery. Last year was brutal, and any margin relief goes toward rebuilding. In this business, some years are really strong, and some are really dark. You can’t react whenever prices drop or increase right away — you have to wait and analyze carefully. If you keep changing prices as a manufacturer, your customers lose trust. Stability is key. I don’t expect anyone to lower their prices unless big players move first, which I doubt will happen. Once consumers have adjusted to a price point, it tends to stick.

E: Do you anticipate a wave of new entrants into Egypt’s roasting or café market?

HB: The barrier to entry isn’t as high as it was five years ago. There are great suppliers, machine distributors, and academies like ours now — that infrastructure didn’t exist before. So yes, more people will enter. But entry isn’t the hard part — succeeding is. Most concepts that fail don’t fail because of the coffee — they fail because they haven’t identified what makes them different.

The pie is getting bigger. There’s still wide room for growth beyond cafés — in roasting, green coffee trading, academy facilities, and more. And it’s not just Cairo anymore. We’re seeing strong concepts emerging in other cities. Specialty coffee knowledge is slowly but surely spreading across Egypt.

E: Which of Ritual’s services do entrepreneurs have the most demand for?

HB: New entrants typically need general coffee education first. Then, concept creation, machine recommendations, barista training, and finally, coffee sourcing. Often, the journey starts with just buying coffee from us. Then, they get curious, join some courses, and eventually train their full team and uplift their brand. The academy enables people to learn the true technicalities of making great coffee.

The competitive landscape is growing, and there are a lot of people working hard every day to make great coffee. That’s what specialty coffee is — the daily decision to put in the effort to make something spectacular. Without that commitment, you’ve got nothing.

E: What’s your biggest concern that could derail that outlook?

HB: Geopolitics is always a threat. FX is always a concern too, but the biggest factor is Brazil. When Brazil sneezes, the whole coffee world catches a cold — that’s a fact. The 2025/26 Brazilian Arabica crop fell around 13% y-o-y due to drought and high temperatures. We’re watching the 2026/27 season closely. If rainfall disappoints again, the price relief everyone is forecasting simply won’t materialize.

Any disruption to Brazil affects everyone. We saw it in 2025 when US tariffs temporarily hit 50% on Brazilian coffee — it reshuffled global supply flows and drove up prices on alternative origins that we also buy from. Those tariffs were lifted, but the risk of them happening again is always there.

E: If 2026 does bring relief, what would you advise Egyptian roasters to prioritize?

HB: Quality. Without question. When input costs ease, the smartest thing a roaster can do is invest in better roasting machinery, better automation, and better QC processes. Source higher-quality beans, improve your roasting systems, and don’t use the relief to cut prices or overexpand — use it to make a better product. I don’t think there should be any drastic shifts right now. I don’t believe there will be significant price relief at the retail level.

My advice: strengthen your relationship with your supplier. Be clear about your consumption. And most importantly, invest in better coffee, because the end customer feels it. Don’t look for the best price, look for the best value.

E: Do you expect more Egyptians to invest in barista skills and home brewing equipment?

HB: Home brewing is growing exponentially. A lot of people who weren’t coffee drinkers are now drinkers. I believe in the coming years we’ll see more and more people preparing coffee at home. It’s like eating out — you don’t have all your meals at a restaurant. You cook at home and enjoy it. Coffee is going the same way. Ritual Academy is ready for that demand. We’re planning to run more courses and introduce more consumer-facing workshops this year. We’re scaling the education side of the business.

E: How has the specialty coffee scene in Egypt evolved since you started your business?

HB: I started just before Covid-19. At the time, the industry was still young. Since then, awareness has grown massively. Coffee is now part of youth culture. Cafés have become social hubs, replacing traditional shisha spots. Post-Covid, we’ve seen a boom in both local production and consumer demand. More F&B giants are entering the space, and there’s now a clearer distinction between generic and specialty coffee experiences.

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