Ascom board advances Ostool buyout

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

EGX tightens rules for index funds as industry surges

Good morning, friends. We end this short workweek with a rather long issue — leading with Ascom inching closer to snapping up a 90% stake in Raya’s Ostool, setting the stage for the logistics firm to essentially return home to Qalaa Holdings.

We have two major — and worrying — macro stories to digest today. Our domestic savings rate has collapsed to a mere 1.2% of GDP, as relentless inflation leaves households with virtually nothing left to save. Also, the non-oil private sector contracted for a fifth straight month in May, marked by a historic surge in selling-price inflation as businesses pass their mounting costs onto consumers.

But pleasant news comes from the EGX, which eked out a 1.73% gain last month. However, the real momentum has rotated down-market to smaller caps. Also to watch at the bourse: it introduced a strict six-month launch timeline for new index-tracking funds.

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WISH THIS MORNING’S ISSUE was a podcast? We’ve got you. Tap or click here to listen to Morning Drive, a 10-minute version of today’s issue crafted for you to enjoy with your morning coffee, while getting the kids ready for school, or while stomping around the house wondering where the [redacted] you left your [redacted] reading glasses.

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Index fund countdown begins

The EGX rolled out new rules for investment funds tracking its indices, effective Tuesday, 2 June, according to a bourse f iling (pdf). Fund managers are now required to be official EGX member firms licensed by the Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA). Managers of existing index-tracking funds who do not hold membership are being given a six-month grace period to comply.

The new framework also adds a ticking clock to product launches. Funds now have a maximum of six months to close their subscription rounds and issue certificates after receiving preliminary EGX approval. If they fail to meet the deadline or submit misleading data, the initial approval is automatically voided, and the exchange will formally notify the applicant and the FRA within 48 hours of the cancellation. Applicants must also commit in writing to paying the index licensing fee before approval is granted.

“There is genuine demand from retail investors for index tracking,” Thndr Chief Equity Strategist Amr El Alfy tells EnterpriseAM, pointing to massive interest in funds tracking the EGX100, EGX70, and the recently introduced EGX30 Capped. With retail investors accounting for more than three-quarters of market trading volume, the equity market’s strong run over the past period has meaningfully accelerated appetite for these products, El Alfy argues.

IN CONTEXT- The new rules arrive amid explosive growth in the broader investment fund industry, which jumped 30% in 1Q 2026 to hit an overall net asset value of EGP 411 bn. However, index funds still represent a tiny fraction of that market, holding just EGP 243.7 mn in net asset value, despite returning a solid 7.54% during the quarter.

CBE steps out, SFE steps in

The Sovereign Fund of Egypt (SFE) plans to take a 10-20% stake in two new industrial investment funds with targeted capital of EGP 5 bn, the Arabic press reports, citing unnamed government officials. Launched with CI Capital and Cairo Capital, the funds will target scalable, export-driven manufacturers. Prospectuses are heading to the Financial Regulatory Authority this month for a September rollout — a slight delay from the initial July tar get. The move provides a firm timeline for the broader pipeline announced in March, which will ultimately see the SFE partner with five major investment banks on a suite of debt and equity vehicles.

Why it matters: Manufacturers have been squeezed by borrowing costs north of 30% after subsidized central bank lending initiatives were rolled back under IMF pressure. By using the SFE to de-risk investments and crowd in private capital, the government is shifting industrial growth from a fiscal burden to a capital market play. This also aligns with the government’s goal to divert liquidity away from safe havens — like real estate and gold — into productive sectors. The state aims to raise the industrial sector’s GDP contribution to 20% and double industrial jobs to 7 mn by 2030.

Data point

USD 4.6 bn — that’s Egypt’s trade deficit for March, marking a 48.8% y-o-y surge, according to Capmas’ latest monthly foreign trade report. The widening gap was driven by a 17.8% y-o-y spike in imports to USD 9.3 bn, heavily fueled by ballooning energy and food bills — crude petroleum imports soared 90.4%, wheat jumped 41.9%, petroleum products rose 16.7%, and natural gas climbed 16.6%. This import surge completely overwhelmed a minor 2.5% y-o-y retreat in exports, which landed at USD 4.6 bn.

PSA

If you were traveling to Kuwait today, your trip may have been canceled. EgyptAir suspended flights to and from Kuwait yesterday and today, citing regional developments, after an Iranian attack targeted Kuwait International Airport. The airline says the suspension is temporary and urged passengers to check their bookings and contact customer service for the latest updates. The government condemned the attack, which the Foreign Ministry said caused injuries and serious damage to airport facilities.

WEATHER- It’s very hot and sunny in Cairo today, with the capital looking at a high of 38°C and a low of 24°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s a little cooler in Alexandria, which is in for a high of 30°C and a low of 19°C.

And over the weekend, expect to see similar conditions in the capital (a high of 36-37°C) and a cooler 32°C for our friends on the Mediterranean.

The big story abroad

We have a slew of updates on the regional conflict. A Republican-controlled US House of Representatives has voted to block President Donald Trump from launching further strikes on Iran unless congressional approval is obtained. This is the House’s fourth attempt to curb Trump’s military actions and still requires approval from the Senate.

Is headway being made? Trump has said that Tehran has “already agreed” not to have nuclear weapons, adding that it can still change its mind. Iran’s Foreign Ministry declined to weigh in while an unnamed government source said the president’s comments were misleading.

More strikes: Kuwait International Airport was targeted yesterday in a strike that injured several people and forced flight cancellations. While regime-affiliated media reported that Iranian authorities have denied responsibility and blamed US interceptor rockets, the US military rejected those claims.

ALSO- Lebanon and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire. The truce — brokered by Washington — is contingent on a complete halt to Hezbollah fire and the total evacuation of its operatives from the South Litani Sector.

Meanwhile, Uber is reportedly plugging some USD 500 mn into Nuro, a self-driving startup. The startup — backed by Nvidia and Soft Bank — aims to license its software to carmakers and is expected to launch later this year.

SpaceX’s IPO isn’t the only offering making headlines: Anthropic has reportedly tapped Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs to lead its highly-anticipated IPO this year, which could take place as early as October.

The exit clears

Ascom’s board of directors approved a fair value study to acquire a 90% stake in Raya Holding’s Ostool Transport and Logistics, bringing Qalaa Holdings’ mining arm one step closer to executing the EGP 641 mn buyout, according to two EGX filings (here, pdf and here, pdf). The board greenlit the purchase of nearly 77.9 mn shares, offering EGP 8.22 apiece — a 30.5% premium over the EGP 6.3 fair value (pdf) set by independent financial advisor Fact.

REFRESHER- This is Raya’s latest attempt to exit the land logistics sector after a previous agreement to sell the unit to Paradigm Logistics, which collapsed in 2022 after the buyer failed to transfer funds. Raya then reversed course in late 2023, consolidating its ownership in Ostool to 90% before Ascom submitted its initial buyout offer in June 2025.

A full-circle moment: Founded in 2010 as a joint venture between Raya and Qalaa, Ostool is essentially returning home. The firm — which provides fleet and transport services to industrial, energy, and construction players — will slide back under Qalaa’s umbrella following a six-year divestment orbit.

Next steps? Both Ascom and Raya’s shareholders will likely still need to sign off before the parties can move forward with the actual ownership transfer and any remaining regulatory approvals.

MARKET REAX- Raya’s stock closed down 0.13% yesterday at EGP 7.47, while Ascom gained 14.1% to EGP 57.1.

ADVISORS- Fact served as the independent financial advisor for the fair value study, which was audited and signed off by Zarrouk & El Salawy.

Down-market rotation

The EGX30 added 1.73% in May to close the month at roughly 52.7k points, according to the bourse’s latest monthly report (pdf ) — a far cry from April’s 14.2% surge but still a solid showing since the month was shortened by four trading sessions for Eid El Adha. Total market cap climbed 2.48% to EGP 3.76 tn. Broader indices outperformed the blue-chip benchmark by a wide margin, with the EGX70 gaining 4.44% and the EGX100 rising 4.52%, suggesting the rally that started in large caps in April is working its way down the market.

ZOOMING OUT- The mild pickup is a relative outperformance. Regional markets finished May ankle-deep in the red, with TASI dipping roughly 1%, the ADX sliding 0.8%, and the DFM shedding roughly 0.1% of its value during the month, due to renewed geopolitical tensions, according to a report (pdf) by Kamco Invest.

Stocks accounted for 11% of main market turnover, slightly higher than April’s 8.4% equity share but not unusual, and the remaining 89% dominated by bonds and T-bills.

Why the cool-off

April’s outsized gain was always going to be a tough act to follow, especially because its two main engines weren’t available for a repeat. “We didn’t see a continuation of the EGP depreciation; it was sort of range-bound, going up a little and down a little,” CI Capital managing director and head of research Monsef Morsy tells EnterpriseAM. The FX repricing dynamic that lifted stocks broadly in April (a pattern Morsy says played out consistently across multiple cycles over the past five to seven years) simply wasn’t in play last month.

The liquidity picture also shifted. A significant chunk of the one-year CDs that matured through February, March, and April found its way into equities during April’s rally. “A big part of that liquidity already got deployed into the stock market during April,” Morsy says. “This is the main reason for not seeing the same strong performance in May,” he adds, noting that “we didn't see much happening on these specific points.”

Playing catch-up

The EGX70 and EGX100 beating the EGX30 by more than 250 basis points is pure market mechanics. “Because we initially saw strong performance from the larger caps in April, a rotation into the smaller names naturally followed,” Morsy tells us. “Whatever stocks caught up in May from the smaller caps were just catching up with what happened with the larger caps,” he says. “I wouldn’t say this is driven by fundamentals whatsoever,” he adds.

What moved the needle?

Investors piled into travel, trade, and real estate stocks. Travel and leisure led gains (+20.6%), followed by trade and distributors (+9.3%), and real estate (+9.1%), marking the second straight month that travel and real estate rank among the EGX’s top three performers. At the other end, basic resources fell 5%, food and beverages slid 1.9%, and industrial goods edged down 0.1%. Banks, which Morsy flagged in April as the re-rating trade to watch, etched out a 0.6% gain.

The travel and leisure sector benefits structurally from FX exposure — all these companies are positively correlated to CY moves, Morsy notes, which still matters in an environment where some investors are pricing in the possibility of further depreciation at some point. The numbers back up what industry executives told us in March: Egypt's travel and tourism sectors have largely avoided the fallout from the Iran war, with disruption mostly limited to GCC travelers facing flight cancellations.

A one-off gain may also be behind the move. Egyptian For Tourism Resorts (ERC) closed the period up 50%, making it one of the sharpest single-stock moves on the main market in May. This coincided with a court ruling that blocked an attempt to unseat the company’s board and a separate international arbitration award ordering the return of Sahl Hasheesh land plots to ERC’s inventory, which tightened the company’s grip on one of Egypt’s largest coastal tourism land banks.

Real estate’s 9.1% advance wasn’t a sector-wide deployment either. “A couple of developments are happening for the leading companies on the stock market, like TMG and Palm Hills,” Morsy says. TMG closed up 2% at EGP 96, while Palm Hills surged 33.5% to EGP 15.17 — the latter’s Ras El Hekma project developments are among the proximate catalysts Morsy cites. Both stocks ranked among the top three by value traded on the main market for the month.

The thesis on banks’ re-rating remains intact but untriggered. “Sometimes the re-rating takes time because there is no immediate, imminent catalyst for the stocks or the sector,” Morsy says. The fundamental case is as strong as it’s been (earnings visibility, margin resilience, strong 1Q results) but short-term triggers are absent. The clearest one Morsy can point to: any positive surprise on the regional front that sees the market begin to price in interest rate cuts — “that will serve as a strong catalyst for the re-rating of banking stocks,” he says.

The foreign selling

Local institutions led the rally with purchases of EGP 2.8 bn (excluding block trades), while regional institutions dumped shares worth EGP 2.4 bn, and foreign institutions sold EGP 2.8 bn in EGX-listed stocks. Local (EGP 2.5 bn) and foreign (EGP 25 mn) retail investors recorded net purchases. Regional individual investors were net sellers to the tune of EGP 147 mn.

On profittaking + a live test of Egypt’s repatriation mechanics: Two things are happening at the same time here, Morsy says. First, non-Egyptian investors who are sitting on gains from April and early May are taking gains while they can. Second, and more telling: “Usually, non-Egyptian investors, especially in periods where there are concerns or question marks on the overall FX market, tend to test the market. They want to see if they want to sell, does the repatriation of funds happen easily? Do they get their money right away from banks?”

Rest assured. The domestic picture, in Morsy’s read, is materially better than the foreign selling implies. Inflation dynamics are contained, the energy sector is stable with no talk of shortages, and FX is holding. “All of this gives a positive sentiment and message on the domestic front,” he says. “Eventually, this will reflect on foreign and Arab investor appetite going forward, as long as there is no further escalation on the regional front.”

The new player on the board

Korra Energi was the only company to IPO in May, the second one this year following Gourmet’s blockbuster debut. The energy solutions firm’s retail subscription closed 31.35x oversubscribed before the Eid El Adha break, after its institutional offering was 5.7x covered. Korra, which is floating an 11% stake, is expected to hit the EGX trading floor in the coming weeks.

May also brought six new listings. Egypt Education Platform listed on 6 May with 199.4 mn shares at a par value of EGP 10. Chemical Industries Development, El Nasr Co. for Fertilizers and Chemical Industries, the Egyptian General Company for Tourism and Hotels, and Misr Travel all listed on 14 May. OG Capital for Investments listed on 19 May as a special purpose acquisition company — a relatively rare structure on the EGX.

The brokerage league table

In May, Thndr topped the monthly table (pdf) with a 15.4% market share, beating EFG Hermes’s two brokerage arms (a combined 14.3%) and Mubasher (6.6%).

Meanwhile, EFG’s two brokerage arms dominated the YTD picture with a combined market share of 15.7%, ahead of Thndr (13.5%) and Mubasher (6.6%), according to the YTD ranking (pdf).

The unavailable luxury

Egypt’s gross domestic savings rate collapsed to 1.2% of GDP in FY 2024/25, down from 6.1% the previous fiscal year — a 75% drop in a single year. This puts Egypt’s savings rate at a fraction of what high-growth emerging markets typically need to fund investment-led growth, according to a recent policy brief (pdf) from the Institute of National Planning (INP) and data from the Planning Ministry. In absolute terms, gross domestic savings fell to EGP 218 bn from EGP 848 bn the year before. Emerging economies typically require savings rates of 20-30% of GDP to strongly support investment, veteran banker and EG Bank board member Mohamed Abdel Aal tells EnterpriseAM.

Nothing left to save

It’s not a lack of financial discipline, but a lack of disposable income. “The drop in savings in Egypt is not due to a lack of planning for the future, but rather because the cost of the present has exceeded people’s capacity to endure,” banking veteran and Alraya Consulting and Training Managing Partner Hany Aboul Fotouh tells us. “A large portion of families no longer have anything left to save in the first place.”

Inflation has done the work. Egypt’s inflation cycle peaked at 33.9% in 2023 and has since moderated — Aboul Fotouh references April’s reading of 14.9% — but extended price pressure and repeated currency devaluations have compounded into a sustained erosion of household purchasing power, the INP brief notes.

Abdel Aal makes the same point: each round of price increases in food, energy, and services shrinks the disposable income available for saving. Aboul Fotouh frames the shift more starkly: “Saving shifted from an investment decision into an unavailable luxury. Many families are simply struggling to get through the month with the minimum possible losses.”

Filling the gap

The behavioral shift is structural. As inflation has run, the rapid expansion of buy-now-pay-later platforms, consumer finance products, and installment-based purchasing has weakened traditional savings behavior, the INP brief argues. Abdel Aal says the proliferation of installment-purchase apps and digital financing services has created a consumption pattern more reliant on borrowing than on saving.

When prices rise persistently, delaying a purchase becomes riskier than financing it. “Younger generations have become closer to the idea of ‘buy now, pay later’,” Aboul Fotouh says. “When the cost of goods rises continuously, delaying a purchase becomes riskier than buying on installment, because people fear tomorrow’s prices more than today’s installments.”

The macroeconomic implication is significant. Economic analyst Ahmed Shawky frames it as a structural risk: “The excessive expansion of consumer finance could shift the economy from a savings-and-investment economy to a debt-funded consumption economy. This will lead to a lower marginal propensity to save, an increase in current consumption at the expense of the future, a rise in non-productive consumer demand, and increased inflationary pressures. Of course, this represents a significant challenge for a country that needs to raise investment rates and increase domestic savings to finance growth.”

A mismatch

The macro picture doesn’t match the household picture, and this disconnect explains why positive macro numbers feel detached from the on-the-ground reality. Real GDP grew at 5.0% in 1Q 2026 and unemployment has fallen to 6.3% in 2025, but the country’s PMI recorded 47.1 in May — well below the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction — and industrial production fell 2.0%. “This means the economy is still facing difficulties in generating a broad productive expansion capable of generating stable and real incomes sufficient for both consumption and savings together,” Aboul Fotouh tells us.

Why it matters, and what could fix it

Shrinking domestic savings means rising reliance on foreign capital. “The economy can withstand a temporary decline in savings, but it cannot rely over the long term on external financing, hot money, and foreign debt to compensate for weak domestic savings,” Aboul Fotouh says. Two other structural factors compound the problem: roughly 69% of bank credit is currently directed toward financing the fiscal deficit, limiting funding available for productive private-sector investment, according to the INP, and over 60% of Egyptians remain outside the formal banking system, weakening long-term savings channels like postal funds and pensions.

Abdel Aal argues the banking sector has acted as a buffer rather than a cause of the savings decline, pointing to high-yield CDs that helped preserve part of savers’ purchasing power during the inflation shock. The catch is structural: high interest rates can only encourage saving when households have income left over after meeting basic needs.

The INP’s policy prescription is broad, including explicit national savings targets, fiscal consolidation, preserving positive real interest rates, tighter oversight of consumer finance, expanding lending to productive sectors, modernizing pension and postal savings systems, broadening financial inclusion, and launching retail sovereign debt instruments aimed at attracting household savings. Several of these are already in motion — the CBE’s recent NBFI tightening addresses the consumer-finance oversight piece, and the IMF program is driving the fiscal consolidation — but the household-income side of the equation remains the binding constraint.

Recovery depends on confidence, not rates. “Families do not return to saving only when interest rates rise, but when they regain confidence that their income will retain its value for a reasonable period,” Aboul Fotouh tells us. The numbers to watch over the next four quarters are real wages, BNPL portfolio growth, the next CBE financial inclusion update, and whether the FY 2025/26 savings rate stabilizes.

Restraint runs out

Our non-oil private sector saw a modest pickup in May activity — but selling-price inflation surged to its second-highest reading in the survey’s history, confirming that the cost restraint of March and April was unsustainable, S&P Global Market Intelligence's David Owen says in S&P Global’s latest report (pdf). The headline PMI reading nudged up to 47.1 from April's 37-month low of 46.6 — a fifth straight month below the 50.0 growth threshold.

The input cost picture got worse, not better. Prices surged at their fastest pace since January 2023 on more expensive diesel and electricity, a weaker EGP, and the sharpest wage pressures since early 2018. Nearly half of all surveyed businesses reported rising costs.

“The principal move was an historic surge in selling charges, with the rate of output price inflation reaching its second-highest in the survey's history,” Owen notes. New orders fell for the fifth straight month as inflation-wary customers kept their wallets shut. Output shrank sharply in wholesale, retail, and services, with only manufacturing and construction showing slight signs of a rebound.

Firms are bracing for more. Companies are hoarding inventories at the fastest rate in almost three years as a hedge against future price hikes. Supply chain disruptions also lengthened delivery times at the fastest pace in nearly four years.

Jobs are the casualty. Firms shed positions at the fastest pace since June 2020, actively laying off workers and leaving vacant roles unfilled.

Why it matters: The reading points to a softer 2Q 2026 GDP figure, with the Middle East conflict likely to depress near-term expansion, Owen says.

What’s next: Business confidence jumped to its highest level since August 2024, with firms banking on an end to regional disruptions to improve broader conditions and stabilize the EGP.

New oversight at FRA’s NBFI division

The Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) appointed Rehab Taha to oversee its Non-Bank Finance Sector Supervision and Control division while retaining her current role as research and development advisor to the chairman, according to a statement.

Part of a broader regulatory tightening push: The appointment comes amid an intensified push to tighten control over the non-bank finance sector, with the Central Bank of Egypt recently implementing measures to restrict commercial bank funding to non-banking financial institutions (NBFIs). It also coincides with the FRA’s efforts to place violators under intense regulatory scrutiny by establishing a centralized registry for individuals and companies breaching regulations to boost transparency and mitigate systemic risk.

Why it matters: “As the market evolves, it is only natural for regulatory policies to evolve alongside it and for new leadership to be brought in to build on ongoing reform efforts,” financial analyst Ahmed Ezz El-Din tells EnterpriseAM, noting that Taha’s leadership in developing the FRA’s Basel III solvency standards makes her a natural fit. “The timing is particularly notable, as it coincides with the previously announced implementation phase of these standards, making the appointment a natural extension of the authority’s long-term reform and development strategy.”

A veteran regulator with deep policy experience: Taha has served as advisor to the FRA chairman for research and development since June 2019. She has played a central role in shaping legislative frameworks, drafting futures contracts trading rules, leading the Basel III financial solvency taskforce, and contributing to the FRA’s 2023/2026 strategy.

USD 165 mn to keep the planes coming

The Tourism Ministry is allocating USD 165 mn to its charter flight incentive program in FY 2026/27 — a 6.4% increase from the current FY, Al Arabiya reports, citing unnamed sources. The bump is a direct response to rising jet fuel prices, with the ministry looking to encourage airlines to operate more flights to Egyptian tourist routes. The program covers most major resort gateways, including Red Sea airports, Sharm El Sheikh, Taba, Luxor, Aswan, Borg El Arab, and Alamein.

Why this matters: The charter flight incentive program delivered a USD 66.5 return on investment for every USD spent in 1Q 2026. This helped drive a 43.5% y-o-y surge in total tourist arrivals to 5.6 mn for the quarter, Tourism Minister Sherif Fathi said last month. The government is layering these subsidies with an exceptional three-month package of reduced ground handling and service fees at Hurghada and Sharm El Sheikh airports to boost summer flight capacities. Private capital is also moving in to capture demand, with local tourism giant Travco planning to launch a charter airline in 4Q.

Doubling down on the Beijing hedge

The Central Bank of Egypt and its Chinese counterpart renewed their currency swap agreement for another three years, expanding the ceiling to CNY 30 bn (c. EGP 230 bn) from CNY 18 bn, China’s Xinhua reports.

Why it matters: Every CNY-settled transaction with China is a USD that stays in the CBE’s reserves. The expanded swap offers short-term liquidity relief and a longer-term hedge, especially as Egypt absorbs the twin hit of collapsing Suez Canal revenues and volatile capital flows from the regional war. Foreign Minister Abdelatty had signaled interest in doubling the swap’s value earlier this year.

The warning lights are flashing

Signs that the global economy is suffering from the fallout of the US-Iran war are growing, with the OECD saying in its latest outlook that the global economy could face its worst slowdown in 40 years outside of the pandemic and the 2009 financial crisis if geopolitical tensions and disruptions continue into next year.

Under a prolonged disruption scenario, OECD expects global growth to come in at 2.1% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027 — a significant downgrade from its earlier projection of 3.1% growth next year. It also expects several economies to potentially tip into recession if disruptions persist.

The energy shock is doing most of the damage. Crude oil prices rose more than 50% in the weeks following the outbreak of fighting, with gas prices spiking sharply across Europe and Asia and distillates — including jet fuel and diesel — surging alongside them.

Global inflation could be 0.4 percentage points higher this year and 1.3 points higher in 2027 in a prolonged disruption scenario.

At the same time, mns are at risk of losing their jobs in the EU, Bloomberg reports. As many as 560k jobs could be cut this year due to the energy costs, while 600k jobs are already under pressure in the automotive industry.

All of these data points are putting policymakers between a rock and a hard place. OECD expects some rate hikes this year, followed by rate cuts next year, in its scenario where the conflict resolves soon.

The developing world is already acting fast despite the difficult balancing act of reining in inflation while preventing economic harm. At least 10 emerging- and frontier-market central banks have raised rates since fighting began in late February, including Indonesia, Rwanda, South Africa, and Sri Lanka, Bloomberg reported elsewhere.

As for the US Federal Reserve, some Fed policymakers are pushing for rate increases, saying they might be necessary to rein in mounting inflation. The Fed is widely expected to leave its benchmark interest rate in the 3.50-3.75% range at its policy meeting in two weeks, but some traders are already placing a more than 60% chance that a rate hike could come in July.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets opened lower, tracking losses felt across Wall Street a day earlier as a fresh wave of attacks across the Middle East spooked investors. South Korea’s Kospi is down some 2%, while Japan’s Nikkei is looking at losses of 1.8%. The Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng are also in the red.

EGX30	52,564	-0.7% (YTD: +25.7%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 51.88	Sell 52.02
USD (CIB)	Buy 51.87	Sell 51.97
Interest rates (CBE)	19.00% deposit	20.00% lending
Tadawul	11,002	-0.1% (YTD: +4.9%)
ADX	9,582	-0.4% (YTD: -4.1%)
DFM	5,686	-0.8% (YTD: -6.0%)
S&P 500	7,554	+0.7% (YTD: +10.4%)
FTSE 100	10,332	-0.4% (YTD: +4.0%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,054	-0.9% (YTD: +4.4%)
Brent crude	USD 97.18	-0.6%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.24	+0.8%
Gold	USD 4,481	+0.3%
BTC	USD 65,284	-2.2% (YTD: -25.5%)
S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index	1,050	-0.1% (YTD: +5.8%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	152.10	+0.3% (YTD: +0.1%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	16.06	+1.8% (YTD: +7.4%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 0.7% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 9.8 bn (21% above the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 25.7% YTD.

In the green: Kima (+3.4%), Arabian Cement (+2.6%), and Ibnsina Pharma (+2.1%).

In the red: Heliopolis Housing (-3.1%), Beltone Holding (-2.5%), and E-Finance (-2.0%).

My Morning Routine: Youssef El Tawil, managing director of Scandinavian Timber Trade

Youssef El Tawil, managing director of Scandinavian Timber Trade (STT): Each week, My Morning Routine looks at how a successful member of the community starts their day — and then throws in a couple of random business questions just for fun. Speaking to us this week is STT Managing Director Youssef El Tawil (LinkedIn).

Edited excerpts from our conversation:

I’m Youssef El Tawil, managing director of STT, a timber export house. We buy wholesale directly from Scandinavian and European sawmills and sell to construction and industrial buyers across the Middle East and North Africa. Our family business started in 1988, when my father founded El Tawil as a commercial agent — essentially representing sawmills to customers and taking a cut on the trade. In 2013, he founded STT as a full shift in our business model: we moved from being agents to being actual traders, buying directly from sawmills, holding our own stock, and selling straight to end customers.

I started working with my father in 2016 while still at university, spending summers in Sweden learning the trade from one of our suppliers, Polkky. I became fully employed in 2017 and officially took over STT in 2021.

Egypt is our biggest market — it’s one of the largest consumers of wood in the world, but it doesn’t produce any locally. Our job is to bridge that gap and make raw material available for construction and industrial uses there, along with our other major markets — Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Palestine, and Morocco.

The most interesting fact about my industry is how strict the sustainability rules are, especially in Sweden and Finland. It isn’t a passing trend; it’s a way of life. When they cut down one tree, they’re legally required to plant three. Seeing how carefully the forests are managed is easily my favorite part of the business.

The biggest challenge right now is shipping. Because of the volatile events in the region, shipping rates and terms fluctuate daily. We’ll wake up to sudden USD 300 fuel surcharges per container, or have prices double overnight under “war risk” clauses for destinations like Jeddah. It makes long-term planning impossible — I have to price and evaluate transactions day by day.

I wake up between 7-7:30am every day; if I don’t wake up early, my entire day is ruined. I start with breakfast and a massive cup of coffee, then open the news, switching between CNN and Al Jazeera to catch up on what I missed while sleeping. After becoming a father, I’ve adjusted my routine to spend an hour playing with my son before heading out. I’m at my desk at 9am sharp. When I’m in Sweden, which is at least three to four months of the year, I head in earlier and hit the office by 8am.

The constants in my day are coffee and praying at least once, and then I strictly time-block my rest of the day. Between 9am and 12pm, it’s entirely “supplier time” — I’m on the phone with our vendors and sawmills in Sweden and Finland, checking stock levels, getting market updates, and preparing purchase offers. In our industry, the power lies entirely with the suppliers, so maintaining those relationships is critical. From 12pm until 5pm, I switch to the sales side — customer calls, meetings, and heavy documentation. I stay focused by being a pen-and-paper person; I’m not someone who can think on the spot, so I have to organize my thinking beforehand. Every morning, I open a fresh page in my notebook, write the date, and outline everything in numbered bullet points.

Professionally, my next big leap is mastering delegation. I’ve realized that a great leader shouldn’t be afraid to hire people better than them. Right now I’m stretched thin doing purchases, sales, and overseeing operations. My goal is to build an executive team — a dedicated operations manager and a sales manager — even if it means giving up equity or offering aggressive performance-linked structures. That would let me step out of the day-to-day and focus on the purchase side, where supplier relationships matter most.

I don’t believe work-life balance is as easy as people make it out to be. It depends entirely on your ambitions. Right now mine are big, so I’m admittedly bad at balance and don’t give my family as much time as I should. I’m aiming for my 50s to be when I can finally turn off the motor, delegate heavily, and enjoy financial freedom.

When I do switch off, I’ve become a total stay-at-home person. The older I get, the more I appreciate low-pressure environments. I want to sit at home with my family or hang out with a few close friends. To mentally unwind, I’d highly recommend watching Matthew McConaughey’s Oscar acceptance speech about chasing your future self — it’s an incredible reminder of how to keep your priorities aligned.

The best advice I’ve ever received comes from two places. One is a proverb I keep as a permanent state of mind: “This too shall pass.” It gets me through any crisis. The other is an old Arabic philosophy passed down by my father: “Do good and throw it into the sea.” It completely anchors how I treat people and how I conduct business.

CALENDAR

2026

JUNE

30 June (Tuesday): June 30 Revolution.

JULY

9 July (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fourth meeting of 2026.

23 July (Thursday): Revolution Day (TBC).

AUGUST

20 August (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fifth meeting of 2026.

26 August (Wednesday): Prophet Muhammad’s birthday.

SEPTEMBER

15 September (Tuesday): IMF to hold its eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

24 September (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s sixth meeting of 2026.

27-29 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Global Conference on Population, Health, and Human Development.

OCTOBER

6 October (Tuesday): Armed Forces Day.

29 October (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s seventh meeting of 2026.

DECEMBER

17 December (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s eighth meeting of 2026.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

1Q 2026: Trial operations for the Ain Sokhna-Sixth of October section of Egypt’s first high-speed rail line scheduled to begin.

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments.

July 2026: British Prime Minister Keir Starmer set to visit Egypt.

2H 2026: Operations at Deli Glass Co’s new USD 70 mn glassware factory kick off.

2026: The Egyptian-American Economic Forum.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings.

2027: Egypt-EU Summit 2027.

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

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