Korra Energi breaks the EGX's wait-and-see

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

IMF mission lands in Cairo a month early for combined review

Good morning, friends. Reform week is here, and it’s moving faster than we thought.

An IMF mission landed Monday and began the combined seventh and eighth reviews yesterday — over a month ahead of schedule. The government filed updated reform credentials days before the mission flew in, in a bid to prove reforms will outlast the loan program itself.

On cue, the ERA hiked electricity tariffs 18-31% per kWh for several economic and service sectors. Households are spared the direct hit; the pass-through isn't. This is the rules-based pricing the IMF has been asking for.

ALSO- Korra Energi is breaking the IPO wait-and-see with an 11% EGX float, and Russian crude imports were up 217% in April after a US Treasury waiver.

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THANK YOU to everyone who filled out our first listener survey. If you’re seeing this for the first time, Morning Drive has been up and running for a while now, and we think it’s time for a quick check-in. So if you have a few minutes to spare, we’d love to hear from you, whether you’re a longtime listener, you’ve only just heard us, or you’re somewhere in between. AND — here’s today’s episode .

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A month ahead of schedule

An IMF mission landed in Cairo on Monday and began the combined seventh and eighth reviews of the country’s economic reform program yesterday, over a month earlier than previously anticipated, a senior government source tells EnterpriseAM. The delegation reportedly began its two-week visit on Monday with meetings at the Central Bank, followed by sit-downs with the Cabinet and Finance Ministry.

The government is working to prove its reforms are durable. The visit follows the government’s submission of updated structural reform credentials to the Fund earlier this week, which was designed to demonstrate that its recent policy shifts — including the third overhaul of the State Ownership Policy and the transition to rules-based energy pricing — will outlast the loan program itself. Successfully clearing this combined review is expected to unlock a USD 3.3 bn disbursement.

Charged up

As the IMF mission visit commences, the Electricity Regulatory Authority (ERA) has hiked electricity prices for several economic and service sectors, according to a government document seen by EnterpriseAM. Households are spared the direct hit, but the indirect pass-through to consumer prices is another matter.

The new rates, per kWh:

Metro: EGP 1.89, up from EGP 1.60 (up 18.1%);
Irrigation: EGP 2.55, up from EGP 1.94 (up 31.4%);
Water distribution companies: EGP 2.55, up from EGP 1.94 (up 31.4%);
Commercial and service subscribers: EGP 2.55, up from EGP 1.94 (up 31.4%).

Why now? “The 18-month freeze on power prices significantly widened the gap between production costs and retail rates. The new tariffs are designed to gradually align prices with the actual cost of generating each kWh,” a government official tells EnterpriseAM. Production costs have climbed on higher natural gas prices and heavier reliance on imports to meet peak summer demand, we’re told.

Why it matters: The IMF wants Egypt off state-set pricing and onto a rules-based energy formula — and this hike is the government’s answer. Narrowing the gap between generation and retail is how the government plans to cut the energy subsidy bill from EGP 75 bn to just EGP 15.8 bn. It also matters for the EGPC-Electricity bottleneck we reported yesterday — the Finance Ministry’s move to settle historic dues for the Petroleum Corporation only holds if the electricity and water sectors stop running deficits.

Indian investment, Egyptian phosphate

Three Indian companies are weighing nearly USD 1 bn in investments in our phosphate and fertilizer sector, Alborsa reports, citing unnamed sources. The targeted projects — spanning extraction, manufacturing, and export-linked logistics hubs in Ain Sokhna and the New Valley — are still in the approvals stage, with the firms in talks with the General Authority For Investments.

Why it matters: The move indicates that India may be interested in moving beyond just buying Egyptian fertilizer to getting a foothold in the country’s production. The ongoing regional war has driven urea prices for Indian buyers up more than 40% to over USD 700 per ton, turning fertilizer into a national security issue. Indian firms have already contracted 350k tons from local producers. Egypt’s 980 mn-ton Abu Tartour phosphate reserves and the EGP 16 bn Ain Sokhna fertilizer complex make the country an attractive option for new investments.

Filling the tank and pantry

Another year, another USD 1.5 bn from the ITFC: The Madbouly government signed a USD 1.5 bn annual work program with the International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation to support our energy and food security, according to a Planning Ministry statement.

Joining the club, again

HSBC Egypt is the latest private bank to hike rates on its fixed-return savings product, raising the yield on its three-year savings certificate to 17.25%, up from 16%, according to the lender’s website.

IN CONTEXT- The move falls in line with other commercial banks seeking to shield their deposit portfolios from being swallowed up by state lenders, which hiked rates on their certificates of deposit by 125 bps as of last month. The move aims to help the central bank absorb excess liquidity and curb dollarization through market instruments without adjusting official corridor rates.

Money for the rails

The Transport Ministry is looking to secure EGP 321 bn (c. USD 5.8 bn) in fresh financing in FY2026/27 to clear out its pipeline of nearly-completed national projects, according to government officials and an official document seen by EnterpriseAM.

What is the money for? It’s mostly about rail. The ministry is prioritizing wrapping up six electric and monorail projects, including the recently piloted New Cairo line, while launching six new metro lines. Funding will also cover the second and third lines of the high-speed rail network and upgrades to 13 existing metro lines.

Digitizing travel

Cairo International Airport will roll out a digital visa-on-arrival system by August, allowing travelers to pay online to receive a digital QR-code visa for instant scanning upon arrival, according to a statement. The system allows travellers to apply to visas up to 48 hours before arrival and will be gradually introduced to other airports.

Who’s behind it? Homegrown cybersecurity and digital solutions company Cyshield will carry out the project and the National Bank of Egypt and Banque Misr will handle operations.

PSA-

WEATHER- It’s another hot one in Cairo, with the mercury hitting a high of 39°C and a low of 21°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s much cooler in Alexandria, with a high of 28°C and a low of 18°C.

And over the weekend, expect to see more tolerable weather in the capital and even cooler weather for our friends on the Mediterranean.

In a market defined by geopolitical risk, inflation, currency volatility, and declining interest rates, knowing how to manage your money has never been more important, and yet few people are really good at it.

The default in Egypt has traditionally been to dollarize, buy real estate, or stash your extra cash in a high-yield certificate of deposit, but that playbook is dying.

With an illiquid real estate market, the era of ultra-high-yield deposits coming to an end, and a rapidly expanding ecosystem of digital investment options, investors are looking for new, smarter opportunities.

In this four-part series, EnterpriseAM Money Matters will walk you through smart personal finance decisions regardless of your age, income, or starting point.

Coming straight to your inbox. Stay tuned.

The big story abroad

The highly-anticipated Trump-Xi meeting is happening as we’re pressing send this morning. The meeting is expected to see President Donald Trump ask his Chinese counterpart to “open up” the world’s second biggest economy to US investment. The US side is also expected to press Beijing to pressure Iran to “walk away from what it is doing in the Gulf,” Reuters said, citing comments by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

It’s official: The US Senate has confirmed Kevin Warsh as the next head of the Federal Reserve, taking over from outgoing chief Jerome Powell, whose term officially ends this Friday. Warsh, a longtime advocate for rate cuts, will take over during a period of high inflation and internal dissent in the Fed. We dive deeper into upcoming Fed moves and what they could mean for the region in this morning’s Planet Finance, below.

Two blockbuster IPOs are the latest sign that the AI hype is alive and well, highlighting the strong and ongoing appetite investors have for AI-focused companies. AI chipmaker Cerebras Systems raked in USD 5.5 bn in its IPO, bringing its value to roughly USD 40 bn, while the IPO of Blackstone’s newly-formed Digital Infrastructure Trust raised USD 1.75 bn, which will go towards buying data centers to support AI computing.

The future of private credit is once again making headlines after former Securities and Exchange Commission chair Jay Clayton said that there is no evidence that the US private credit sector suffers “excess leverage.” The comments follow heavy losses in the sector, fueled by fears that AI disruption could cripple the debt-heavy software firms it supports.

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Charging onto the EGX

Energy solutions firm Korra Energi is moving to break the wait-and-see mood in the IPO market by floating 11% of its shares on the EGX, Prime Holding CEO Yasser Shahin tells EnterpriseAM. Korra’s IPO will be managed by Prime Capital, and it marks the second private-sector entry into the main market this year following the blockbuster Gourmet IPO.

The bourse approved the temporary listing of Korra’s shares back in December 2024, with a paid-in capital of EGP 450 mn distributed over 2.25 bn shares. A week later, the company said it intended to float 20% by 1H 2025.

Why 11% and not 20%? “The founding family preferred to retain a controlling 89% stake rather than selling a larger portion now,” Korra Energi Vice Chairman Heba Korra tells us. “We are not seizing [a chance] to exit; we are floating a stake to fund expansion because we believe the share value will double in the future thanks to our upcoming projects.”

The breakdown: The 11% stake (c. 247.5 mn shares) will be split between a private placement for institutions (60%) and a public offering for retail investors (40%).

The proceeds will fund a capital increase to fuel regional growth. Korra has already opened branches in Saudi Arabia and Iraq and is planning to enter three new African markets, founder and CEO Ayman Korra tells us, though he did not disclose the expected total from the sale.

When will Korra IPO? “We are in the final stages of meeting FRA requirements, and we expect to begin immediately after the Eid El Adha holiday,” Shahin says.

By the numbers: Korra’s revenues jumped from EGP 1.6 bn in 2022 to EGP 7.9 bn in 2025 and the company is targeting EGP 17.6 bn by 2030, Ayman Korra says, noting that the firm recorded a net income of EGP 554 mn in 2025 alone.

More in store for Prime: A successful Korra IPO would provide a major tailwind for Prime’s plans to float two additional companies before year-end, Shahin says, adding it would also confirm that sustainable energy and energy efficiency have become a safe haven for investors seeking growth.

Parked, blended, redirected

Egypt’s Russian crude imports surged 217% in April to 707k bbl / d from the 223k bbl / d recorded in March after a mid-April US Treasury sanctions waiver, according to S&P Global Commodities data — and Russian products imports nearly doubled to 499k bbl / d, taking Egypt's share of Russia’s April seaborne product exports to almost a quarter.

Part of it may simply be demand: Regional conflict has cut off traditional import routes — crude from Iraq and Kuwait, products from the UAE — with only limited Saudi volumes still arriving via the Red Sea, former oil minister and Senate Energy Committee chairman Osama Kamal tells EnterpriseAM. Egypt has meanwhile been lining up alternative barrels from Libya and Algeria — but the scale of April’s Russian import surge goes well beyond what supply substitution alone would require.

Egypt’s total refining capacity stood at around 650k bbl / d in March — meaning April’s Russian crude imports alone already exceeded what the country, consuming 750k bbl / d on average, can process.

On the products side, total consumption averaged around 690k bbl / d in FY 2023/24 — meaning Russian products alone would have accounted for the equivalent of nearly three quarters of that level last month.

“Russian flows are less the story than the signal,” Wolfgang Lehmacher, former head of supply chain and transport industries at the World Economic Forum, tells EnterpriseAM. “Barrels are being parked, blended, and redirected.”

A storage and redistribution play: Russian fuel oil and vacuum gasoil cargoes were being transferred near Port Said in March via ship-to-ship operations with unclear final destinations. “As sanctions and chokepoint uncertainty accumulate, the system responds by deepening its reliance on adaptable nodes such as Egypt,” Lehmacher said, pointing to infrastructure including Al-Hamra Port on the Mediterranean and the Sumed pipeline linking Ain Sokhna to Sidi Kerir.

The infrastructure piece: Egypt has around 29 mn barrels of spare storage across its main ports — a figure that positions the country as a viable option for traders looking for optionality and a strategic location. It operates 19 commercial ports, 14 under development, and nearly 79 petroleum storage facilities built or upgraded in recent years.

Why Egypt? The mid-April temporary waiver from the US Treasury cleared the delivery of Russian crude loaded on vessels until 16 May to stabilize global markets amid regional conflict. “Egypt is monetizing its geography and storage to intermediate displaced cargoes, while selectively using discounted volumes to ease pressure on its own subsidy-burdened market,” Lehmacher says.

The flows fit a broader shift: Early last month, Russia and Egypt held high-level talks floating the idea of establishing a grain and energy hub in Egypt. “With the [temporary] sanctions relief that had been imposed on the sale of Russian crude, Egypt has to benefit from it since we have very good relationship with the Russians,” Kamal says, adding that “trade between the two countries is not tied to the USD either, with settlements possible in local currencies, which makes it suitable for us.”

IoT is scaling across key industries in Egypt. Vodafone Business is building the system behind it

IoT is no longer limited to connectivity. It is becoming the control layer for how operations are monitored, managed, and optimized. That shift is already playing out in strategic sectors such as pharma, F&B, manufacturing, and agriculture, where these technologies improve resource efficiency and operational visibility. Vodafone Business has developed an integrated IoT ecosystem across Egypt, connecting these capabilities under a single operational layer.

This integration is most visible in smart cities and buildings. Vodafone Business deploys Building Management Systems (BMS) and energy monitoring tools to manage consumption. Using smart meters and sensors, these systems optimize HVAC and lighting while providing real-time oversight of utility use. Digital signage tools also enable remote management of announcements and marketing content, ensuring communication is as efficient as energy use.

The same model applies where conditions must be tightly controlled. In pharma and F&B, maintaining cold chain integrity is a core operational requirement. These monitoring solutions use temperature and humidity sensors to set automated thresholds and trigger alerts when conditions deviate, supporting compliance through verifiable records.

In logistics and supply chains, the focus shifts to movement and efficiency. Vodafone Business provides monitoring systems that support fleet operations. Fleet management solutions use GPS telemetry to track vehicle movement and fuel consumption in real time, improving visibility for planning.

Agriculture represents another area where IoT supports large-scale operations through automated irrigation and real-time monitoring. In partnership with Rakhaa, a Saudi-Egyptian agribusiness, Vodafone Business has deployed IoT-based solutions that use soil sensors and pivot controllers to monitor moisture levels and automate irrigation, supporting water efficiency.

Scaling these applications depends on reliable connectivity, particularly in remote and underserved areas. Vodafone Business is actively expanding its 5G network infrastructure across Egypt to close coverage gaps and ensure its IoT solutions deliver consistent performance at scale, extending reach into agricultural zones, industrial corridors, and logistics routes where connectivity has traditionally been limited. By linking physical assets with digital intelligence, Vodafone Business supports more efficient, data-driven operations across industries.

Bearing fruit again

Tradeline lost most of two iPhone cycles to Egypt’s FX crisis — and is now selling iPhones in Egypt earlier than ever before. The country’s largest Apple premium reseller saw revenue fall 58% between 2022 and 2024 as type approval delays, currency controls, and a swelling gray market collectively shut it out of its core product line for nearly two years.

The recovery is now visible: Tradeline launched the iPhone 17 in September, weeks ahead of the October-November window it had been working with since the company was founded in 1993. “We are back and even better,” CEO and co-founder Mohamed Medhat tells EnterpriseAM.

The September launch is the clearest signal yet that the import regime has normalized. For a mono-brand Apple retailer, type approval timing is not a back-office issue — it is the business. Both the iPhone 14 and iPhone 15 cycles reached the Egyptian market with approvals arriving late, in some cases as late as August, compressing the commercial window for premium devices that depend on launching alongside global availability. Getting the iPhone 17 into stores in September puts Tradeline ahead of the calendar it has historically followed. “The process of type approval now is swifter than ever,” Medhat said.

SOUND SMART- Type approval is the regulatory gate every iPhone has to clear before it can be sold in Egypt. Run by the National Telecommunications Regulatory Authority, it’s a compulsory check that every piece of equipment with a communication element must pass before it can be imported, manufactured, or assembled in the country. Every new iPhone, iPad, and Mac is held at the border until the NTRA certificate lands, and how fast that happens is the difference between launching with the global cycle and launching weeks late.

The crisis years required a different company. Between mid-2022 and mid-2024, with iPhone supply throttled, Tradeline entered what Medhat called “survival mode” in a Founder of the Week interview with EnterpriseAM last year. Hiring froze. The cost base was rebuilt from the ground up. Two of the company’s 25 mono-brand stores were closed — a deliberately small number, Medhat said, because the wager was that the economy would recover and the footprint would be worth more than the short-term savings. “We didn’t want to lose our main footprint in the market.”

The mix shifted toward customers least exposed to retail volatility. Corporate and institutional buyers of Macs and iPads — companies and schools, not consumers — became the demand pool Tradeline leaned on while iPhones were intermittently unavailable.

“We started to focus more on corporate sales because these are the parties that use these devices more than the consumer,” Medhat said. The shift wasn’t a strategic reinvention so much as a recognition that B2B demand is structurally less sensitive to consumer FX shocks than B2C demand.

Tradeline also built a hedge against its mono-brand exposure. XPRS, a multi-brand retail format launched under the Tradeline umbrella during the crisis, sells locally assembled smartphones, PCs, and tablets from non-Apple manufacturers.

At its peak during the import bottleneck, XPRS accounted for 25-30% of group revenue. As Apple supply normalized, that share settled closer to 15%. The category is now a structural feature of the business rather than a contingency — a recognition that concentration risk in a single brand was a vulnerability Tradeline didn’t want to repeat.

Affordability is the other lever — and the hardest to measure. Installment financing has become a load-bearing channel for premium electronics retail in Egypt, where double-digit inflation and a weakened EGP have pushed the price of an iPhone Pro well beyond what most middle-class households can absorb in banknotes.

Tradeline’s financing partner Valu says the structure also changes what people buy, not just whether they buy. “A customer might enter intending to buy an iPhone 15, but then choose the Pro model when the difference becomes only a few hundred pounds per month,” Valu's Head of Growth Dina Shalaby says. The effect is a trade-up dynamic that compounds the volume effect. Financing not only widens the buyer pool but also pushes the existing pool toward a higher-margin product.

Medhat would not put a number on the share of Tradeline sales now going through installments, saying only that it “fluctuates from month to month based on the strength of the offers.” The reluctance to disclose is itself a signal: financing matters enough that the answer is now competitive information.

Tradeline emerged from the crisis with a more diversified mix than it had going in — corporate sales doing more work, a multi-brand format absorbing brand-concentration risk, and financing structurally embedded in the consumer offer. None of these were part of the strategy in 2021. All of them are the strategy now. “Every time we go through these crises, we learn new skills,” Medhat said. “We come out stronger, having acquired more skills than we had when we entered.”

What’s next: The September iPhone 17 launch is the test case for whether the new operating tempo holds. If approval timing stays steady through the next cycle, the recovery narrative is proven and Tradeline is back in expansion mode — Medhat says new stores are already in the pipeline. If approvals slip again on the iPhone 18, the diversification built during the crisis years will be tested as more than a hedge.

Alkan plans EGP 11 bn hotel push in the Citadel

Alkan Holding will invest EGP 11 bn in three hotels and tourism facilities in the Citadel area by 2029, Chairman Khaled Nosseir tells EnterpriseAM. The real estate arm of the local conglomerate is injecting fresh capital into its flagship 60k sqm Citadel Plaza development, bringing the project’s total investment value to EGP 15 bn.

About the Citadel Plaza: The mixed-use tourism and commercial hub will come in stages, with the first phase slated for completion in Q4 2027 and the rest expected to come online by Q4 2029. To sustain foot traffic and integrate local businesses, the project will also feature Darb El Fenoun, a cultural and commercial platform featuring local artisans.

The masterplan for Historic Cairo: To capitalize on growing tourist demand, the government spent years — and around EGP 60 bn — upgrading infrastructure and repairing buildings across Historic Cairo before 2023. Now with the renovation phase complete, the government is offering up heritage sites for Public-Private Partnerships to build boutique hotels and commercial ventures.

Eyes on the prize

Alameda Healthcare is reportedly mulling the acquisition of a 51% stake in International Eye Hospital (IEH) from Lebanon-based Euro Mena II private equity fund, the Arabic press reports, citing an unnamed source. Neither the terms nor the timeline of the potential transaction were disclosed.

The timeline: Euro Mena II bought a majority stake in IEH back in 2012, and this sale has been on our radar since at least 2019, with multiple buyers reportedly circling the asset over the years, including US private equity firm TPG, Saudi Arabia’s Elaj Group — already a 15% shareholder in IEH — an unnamed UK-based fund, and most recently an unnamed strategic buyer in 2024.

Anantara is coming to Somabay

Thai hospitality giant Minor Hotels will set up Anantara Somabay Resort & Residences — the brand’s first property in the country — under an agreement inked with our friends at Somabay, according to a statement. The resort, which we flagged when the two companies signed an MoU last year, will feature 300 hotel keys and 150 branded residential units and open its doors in May 2030.

The project is one piece of Minor’s larger push into Egypt. The group formed a joint venture with Sunrise Resorts & Cruises last October, targeting up to 50 hotels across the country over the next decade — a mix of new builds and redevelopments across West Cairo, Ras El Hekma, and Ain Sokhna.

E-finance starts the year strong

Fintech giant E-finance saw its net income rise 42.3% y-o-y to roughly EGP 857 mn in 1Q 2026, according to its latest earnings release (pdf). Revenues jumped 38.8% y-o-y to around EGP 2.2 bn in the same period, fueled by broad-based growth across the group’s core business segments. Transactions were the biggest revenue contributor, with revenues coming in at EGP 881.2 mn (up 31.3% y-o-y), followed by cloud services (up 36.1%).

Elsewedy Electric sees jump in income

Elsewedy Electric’s net income after minority interest came in at EGP 4.8 bn during 1Q 2026, marking a 16.9% y-o-y increase, according to the company’s latest earnings release (pdf). Revenues surged 26.8% y-o-y during the three-month period to EGP 75.3 bn, driven by growth across all segments — infrastructure investment (up 109% y-o-y), digital solutions (up 64.8%), wire, cable, and accessories (up 25.8%), engineering and construction (up 18.7%), and electrical products (up 15.4%).

ODE’s bottom line wavers amid regional war and Ramadan slowdown

EGX-listed Orascom Development (ODE) saw its net income dip 7% y-o-y to EGP 1.8 bn in 1Q 2026, which management attributed to declining land sales in the company’s latest earnings release (pdf). Revenues remained largely unchanged at EGP 6.5 bn for the period.

Revenues by segment: The hospitality segment saw a 33% y-o-y increase in revenues, contributing EGP 1.6 bn to the top line, despite the impact of the “ongoing regional conflict and seasonal impact from Ramadan.” Revenues from commercial assets rose 24% y-o-y, reaching EGP 1.2 bn.

QNB backs GlobalCorp with EGP 3 bn facility

GlobalCorp Financial Services secured a EGP 3 bn credit facility from QNB Egypt to finance leasing contracts and mortgage lending, according to a statement from the lender.

Giza Systems is out, pulse by solutions is in

Saudi STC Group has rebranded tech consultancy firm Giza Systems to Pulse bySolutions. Solutions by STC, a subsidiary of Saudi Telecom (STC), acquired an 89.5% stake in Giza Systems in 2022.

No cuts, no cushion

The US consumer price index (CPI) (pdf) across the all items index climbed 3.8%, up from 3.3% in March, with the core CPI for the “all items less food and energy” index rising 2.8% over the last 12 months, up from 2.6% in March.

The energy index accounts for only 40% of the monthly all-items increase — meaning the other 60% is now shelter, services, food, and tariff-sensitive categories. Energy surged 17.9% over the 12-month period. Shelter costs and tariff-sensitive apparel rose 0.6%, while airline fares accelerated 2.8% on the month, putting the 12-month gain at 20.7%. Food at home prices increased 0.7%, the biggest monthly gain since August 2022.

This rate increase has weighed on US consumer sentiment in recent weeks, as Americans grapple with an energy price shock that’s rippling through the economy. Real wages dipped 0.5% on the month, marking the first time in three years that US wages have not outpaced inflation. “For consumers, that means the cost of living remains uncomfortable,” economist Sung Won Sohn told CNN Business.

The Fed's rate-cut window just closed: The latest inflation reading sits at a longstanding crossroads for the Fed, following a four-dissent meeting held in late-April, the highest level of internal dissent since 1992. While incoming Chair Kevin Warsh has historically advocated for lower rates, and Governor Stephen Miran remains the lone voice favoring aggressive cuts, major investment banks have now begun pushing first-cut forecasts into 2027, with markets pricing a 30% chance of a hike by year-end.

Chief Investment Officer at Northlight Asset Management Chris Zaccarelli warned that with the labor market holding up, it’s very unlikely the Fed will be able to lower interest rates any time soon, and “we may start pricing in rate hikes for next year,” CNBC reports.

The geographic scope of the April inflation report hit Egypt particularly hard, with credit spreads widening as regional risk aversion triggered capital outflows and heightened concern over short-term funding needs. As we have previously tracked, Egypt’s 5Y credit default swap widened by 110 bps from pre-war levels to hit its March peak of 344.7 bps.

Egypt entered the year facing an extra layer of volatility marked by heavy refinancing needs, FX and inflation risks, and external financing needs of around USD 32 bn in principal and interest payments for FY 2027, Zawya reports, citing Brussels-based KBC Asset Management Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Ismail Fouda. The figure now carries systemic weight considering Egypt is now one of the world’s top five emerging market and developing economies borrowers, alongside China, India, Brazil, and Argentina — collectively representing 78% of all EM borrowing. However, Egypt's external position is materially more fragile than that of the larger four, according to OECD’s Global Debt Report 2026 (pdf).

The gov’t’s window for a clean Eurobond return — previously estimated at a 8-11% yield — is now slammed shut. The pricing was predicated on an early-2027 Fed rate-cut cycle that is now off the table. Consequently, with the window expected to remain closed for the next 12 months, Egypt cannot issue debt without paying a distress premium.

In the GCC, the USD peg means monetary policy is inherited from the Fed. While Aramco and Adnoc benefit from war-driven oil windfalls, the non-oil sector inherits a restrictive, high-rate environment from the Fed, constraining the non-oil credit cycle just as Vision 2030 and UAE industrial diversification deploy heavy capex.

The K-shape runs inside the GCC too — and the Public Investment Fund cutting international allocations from 30% to 20% is the tell that the windfall is being routed home, not deployed outward as it was in 2024-25.

While Aramco’s CEO Amin Nasser recently warned that supply disruptions could persist until a 2027 normalization — estimating a loss of 100 mn barrels for each additional week the strait remains closed — the CPI reading suggests a more permanent shift. As we reported yesterday, producers view 2027 as a tactical recovery, but the inflation passthrough has already locked in higher costs. For regional importers, what began as a temporary war shock is now the structural reality for 2027 budgets.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are up in early trading this morning, led by South Korea’s Kospi and Japan’s Nikkei. Asian stocks are mirroring gains seen across US tech equities over the past few days, which pushed major US indices to end yesterday in the green.

EGX30	53,416	-1.2% (YTD: 27.7%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 52.86	Sell 53.00
USD (CIB)	Buy 52.87	Sell 52.97
Interest rates (CBE)	19.00% deposit	20.00% lending
Tadawul	11,020	-0.2% (YTD: +5.1%)
ADX	9,705	+0.1% (YTD: -2.9%)
DFM	5,759	-0.4% (YTD: -4.8%)
S&P 500	7,444	+0.6% (YTD: +8.8%)
FTSE 100	10,325	+0.6% (YTD: +4.0%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,861	+0.9% (YTD: +1.1%)
Brent crude	USD 105.63	-2.0%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.86	-0.1%
Gold	USD 4,697	-0.2%
BTC	USD 79,299	-1.7% (YTD: -9.5%)
S&P Egypt Sovereign Bond Index	1,050	-0.1% (YTD: +5.7%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	151.19	-0.3% (YTD: -0.5%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	17.87	-0.7% (YTD: +19.5%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 1.2% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 12.8 bn (66.5% above the 90-day average). Local investors were the sole net buyers. The index is up 27.7% YTD.

In the green: Egypt Aluminum (+6.6%), ADIB (+4.4%), and Orascom Construction (+2.6%).

In the red: CIB (-2.5%), E-Finance (-2.0%), and Telecom Egypt (-1.9%).

My Morning Routine: Karim Malash, chairman and CEO of M squared

Karim Malash, chairman and CEO of M squared: Each week, My Morning Routine looks at how a successful member of the community starts their day — and then throws in a couple of random business questions just for fun. This week, we're speaking with Karim Malash, chairman and CEO of M squared. Edited excerpts from our conversation:

I’m Karim Malash, and I’m the chairman and CEO of M squared. I’ve been leading the company for the past four years. Before that, I spent around 25 years with Schlumberger, which gave me the chance to travel extensively and work across different cultures. I’m an engineer at heart, a problem solver, and I’ve always been passionate about working with people, exploring new environments, and understanding different ways of thinking.

M squared was founded in 2012 as part of Intro Holding. From the beginning, the vision has been to create integrated, human-centric communities. The company started with projects across the North Coast and Cairo, and more recently has been expanding with new developments in East and West Cairo, including Sixth of October. The focus has always been on delivering more than just buildings. It's about creating a complete living experience that continues to evolve.

A big part of my approach is to bring discipline to everything we do, with a focus on enhancing the living and customer experience. I've developed a strong sense of what people expect from the spaces they live in, having lived in around eight countries and visited more than 120. I try to bring that perspective into the way we design and deliver our projects.

At M squared, my role is centered around working with a strong team to reposition the company and evolve its presence in Egypt’s real estate market. This means expanding into new sectors, pushing forward with digital transformation, and rethinking how we engage with communities. We put the customer at the center of everything we do. Real estate isn’t a one-time transaction; it’s a long-term relationship, and that comes with responsibility to both our customers and our shareholders.

The real estate sector today is fast-moving and increasingly complex. There’s a clear shift toward faster delivery cycles and the rapid creation of communities. At the same time, we’re seeing the rise of hospitality-integrated real estate, where the focus isn’t just on construction but on the services that come with it. Partnerships are a key element — working with operators across F&B, sports, healthcare, and entertainment is what ultimately shapes a community. Also, sustainability is becoming a fundamental consideration in both our design and material choices.

I’ve always been an early riser. My day usually starts around 7am with a cup of tea and a quick check of the news. I follow that with a morning workout, mostly high-intensity training and running, which has been a consistent part of my routine for years. After that, I sit down with a coffee, ideally somewhere sunny, and start mapping out the day ahead.

There’s no real typical workday, but my schedule is usually filled with pre-planned meetings, both in person and remote. I also make it a point to stay informed about local and global developments, as they often have a direct impact on the business. I spend time on the ground as well — visiting sites, meeting teams, and staying connected with the people actually building our projects. That hands-on approach is something I value a lot, and I also believe in teamwork and delegation. Giving people clear objectives and directions is key to staying organized and effective.

One constant in my day is learning. Whether it’s from my team, reading, or exploring new areas like technology and AI, I make a conscious effort to keep developing myself.

Looking ahead, my main professional focus is continuing to grow M squared and to deliver on the promises we’ve made to our customers and partners. On a personal level, I’ve developed a strong interest in architecture over the years, and I’d like to pursue a bachelor’s degree in the field.

Work-life balance has always been challenging, especially in leadership roles. It’s important to carve out time for family, friends, and personal well-being. I think of it as making space for “me time” — to recharge, reflect, and take care of both mental and physical health.

One piece of advice that has stayed with me since my early days as an engineer is that failure is not an option. I don’t take no for an answer. I believe in perseverance, constantly pushing the bar higher, and never settling for the norm.

CALENDAR

2026

MAY

21 May (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s third meeting of 2026.

27-29 May (Wednesday-Friday): Eid El Adha (TBC).

JUNE

15 June (Monday): Seventh review of the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility.

30 June (Tuesday): National holiday in observance of the June 30 Revolution (TBC).

JULY

9 July (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fourth meeting of 2026.

23 July (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Revolution Day (TBC).

AUGUST

20 August (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s fifth meeting of 2026.

26 August (Wednesday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

SEPTEMBER

15 September (Tuesday): IMF to hold its eighth review of Egypt’s USD 8 bn EFF arrangement.

24 September (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s sixth meeting of 2026.

27-29 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Global Conference on Population, Health, and Human Development.

OCTOBER

6 October (Tuesday): Armed Forces Day.

29 October (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s seventh meeting of 2026.

DECEMBER

17 December (Thursday): Monetary Policy Committee’s eighth meeting of 2026.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

1Q 2026: Trial operations for the Ain Sokhna-Sixth of October section of Egypt’s first high-speed rail line scheduled to begin.

May 2026: End of extension for developers on 15% interest rates for land installment payments.

July 2026: British Prime Minister Keir Starmer set to visit Egypt.

2H 2026: Operations at Deli Glass Co’s new USD 70 mn glassware factory kick off.

2026: The Egyptian-American Economic Forum.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games.

April 2027: Tenth of Ramadan dry port and logistics hub to begin operations.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2027: Egypt to host EBRD’s annual meetings.

2027: Egypt-EU Summit 2027.

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

September 2028: First unit of the Dabaa nuclear power plant begins operations.

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