Fertilizer joins crude oil as India’s top geopolitical vulnerability

Fertilizer is becoming a geopolitically priced input for India, joining crude oil as one of its most critical vulnerabilities amid the ongoing regional war. With urea prices for Indian buyers doubling pre-war levels to nearing USD 1k per tonne, the crisis is exposing a bundled dependency on the Gulf region.

“The overlap is most visible in India’s relationship with countries such as Saudi Arabia, a key supplier of both crude oil and phosphates,” Anupam Manur, economist at Takshashila Institution, a Bengaluru-based public policy school and think tank, tells EnterpriseAM. The Gulf region powering India’s energy needs now underpins its agrarian economy, raising the stakes of prolonged supply chain disruptions.

Imports are MENA-concentrated: India’s fertilizer supply relies heavily on imports, bringing in some 18 mtpa, including 60% of its phosphate needs and nearly all of its potash. Around 20% of India’s urea consumption comes from the Gulf. Diammonium phosphate (DAP) is sourced from Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Russia, China, and Jordan, while muriate of potash comes from Canada, Russia, Belarus, and Jordan.

Maritime chokepoints hit supply chain

With the Strait of Hormuz largely blocked since late February and Bab Al Mandab under sustained pressure from the Houthis, two of the country’s primary western sea routes for fertilizer imports stand compromised. Early warning signals are evident, including cancelled fertilizer tenders in neighboring countries as well as rising freight and war-risk ins. costs, notes Manur.

Alternative sources are constrained: Chinese export restrictions have led to a steep drop in DAP shipments to India, while reliance on lower-priced Russian supplies introduces the risk of secondary sanctions, Manur points out. Canadian potash, Moroccan phosphates, and Omani urea remain available, but at elevated prices, as multiple importers compete for the same limited pool outside disrupted routes, he explains.

The political sensitivity of fertilizer pricing: A 45-kg bag of urea still retails at INR 242 (USD 2.9) against a market price of INR 2.2k (USD 26), with nearly 90% of the cost covered by the government subsidy. While the state currently absorbs these costs to protect cultivators, India's subsidy regime is under extreme pressure. The country’s budget for FY 2026/27 earmarked some USD 12.7 bn (INR 1.1 tn) for urea subsidies. However, absorbing global price shocks could drive total fertilizer subsidies to USD 24-25 bn, Manur estimates.

Macro impact: “While this may increase the fiscal deficit — projected at 5.3-5.8% — by 0.2-0.3% of GDP, the impact is manageable in the short term. But, the continued absorption of price shocks will aggravate existing inefficiencies in fertilizer use.”

What’s lacking? India’s strategic reserves of fertilizers are minimal relative to annual import requirements. Meanwhile, subsidy policies continue to encourage overuse and distort nutrient balance, rather than responding to price signals, says Manur.

A critical monsoon sowing season ahead

India’s fertilizer buffers typically cover 30-45 days of stock. But if shipping disruptions persist through April and May, cargoes expected to arrive at Indian ports in early June may not materialize, warns Manur. With demand peaking in mid-June, these stocks that appear adequate on paper could be depleted by late June, threatening the primary sowing season.

Food security to take precedence: An export ban on grains is not immediate but remains a real possibility. India previously imposed restrictions on wheat exports in 2022 after the Ukraine invasion and on non-basmati rice in 2023 under similar pressures.

The triggers for such bans are well established: a 5-10% decline in monsoon crop yields, food inflation above 8-9%, disruptions to the winter sowing cycle, and the political calendar, particularly state elections.

A circular dependency

The Middle East is both India’s primary fertilizer supplier and a major destination for its agricultural exports. The region accounted for 21.8% of India’s total agri-exports in 2025, worth about USD 11.8 bn, making it a critical market for farm products such as rice, spices, meat, and dairy. Disruptions in fertilizer flows from the region could force India to restrict food exports to provide for domestic consumers, impacting Gulf food security, Manur told us.

This mutual vulnerability may drive strategic quid pro quo arrangements, such as long-term supply agreements or equity stakes in exchange for stable food exports — similar to India’s existing partnerships with Saudi Arabia’s Maaden and Oman India Fertilizer Company.