EGX30 erases March losses with 14.2% April surge

The EGX has erased its March war shock. The benchmark surged 14.2% in April to 51.8k points, with local investors crowding into education, travel, and real estate names, according to the bourse’s latest monthly report (pdf). Market cap jumped EGP 433 bn — or 13.4% — to EGP 3.67 tn, recovering March’s 7.9% drawdown with room to spare.

Stocks accounted for just 8.4% of main market turnover, with the other 91.6% dominated by bonds and T-bills — not unusual.

ZOOMING OUT- The EGX30 was a regional standout: Saudi Arabia’s TASI shed 0.55% on profittaking, while the UAE’s bourses found some footing — with the DFM up 6.1% and the ADX up 2.7%, clawing back some of their earlier war-driven losses.

The headline somewhat flatters the data underneath. Local institutions led the rally with net purchases of EGP 3.3 bn, while regional institutions dumped shares worth EGP 905.4 mn. Appetite from foreign institutions managed was weak, with just EGP 100 mn in net buying.

So, what tempts the carry trade crowd back? “We haven't seen foreigners entering aggressively lately. We still need to see incremental inflows from foreign and regional investors,” CI Capital head of research Monsef Morsy tells EnterpriseAM. “It’s not necessarily weak conviction, but rather a result of the investor type and an outlook that isn't 100% clear,” he says, adding that certainty about the “dust having settled” regionally will bring foreign investors back.

Retail traders of all forms trimmed their positions: local investors were net sellers to the tune of EGP 1.1 bn, while regional traders trimmed EGP 1.06 bn, and international retail investors were off EGP 318 mn.

What moved the needle

Don’t credit April’s rally to the ceasefire, that impact actually showed up in May. “The session that most clearly showed the markets are betting on a ceasefire was Sunday’s session [early May], not April’s,” Al Ahly Pharos head of research Hany Genena tells us. For most of the month, the geopolitical risk premium was still being priced in.

This is more a macro story than anything: “April's performance reflected the decrease in the USD exchange rate and the rise in prices of oil, petrochemicals, urea, and so on,” Genena tells us, adding that EGP depreciation expectations “are not severe,” pointing to anchored CIB GDRs as evidence that the black-market fears of prior cycles aren’t driving the current bid.

The anatomy of a concentrated rally

Gains were anything but evenly distributed. Education services led at +51.7%, followed by travel & leisure (+32.3%) and real estate (+21%). Banks (+3.7%), energy (+3.9%), and textiles (+4%) brought up the rear. Meanwhile, shipping & transportation (-0.1%) was the only sector in the red.

Education’s gain was baked in by September. “Education was a top performer because it is a defensive sector whose performance is largely determined at the start of the academic year in September based on enrollment numbers,” Morsy tells us, meaning this year’s “results are already set,” regardless of how the macro played out.

For (a mid-cap) blue-chip like our friends at Cira, there’s a deleveraging factor at play. The sector’s surge also reflects a structural shift for education’s biggest players. “Cira is emerging from a long cycle of heavy debt,” CEO Mohamed El Kalla tells EnterpriseAM. After a “bold” borrowing spree to expand its university and schooling footprint, the company is now entering an exit phase of high leverage. “The bottom line is growing by multiple digits,” El Kalla says, noting that investors are piling in as the company delivers on its growth plans earlier than anticipated. Cira’s stock price was up 15.8% in April to EGP 19.80.

Real estate is a more complicated read. Both Morsy and Genena frame the sector’s 21% gain as largely stock-specific — think dividends here, a new project announcement there. Morsy describes it as “specific stock movement rather than a sector-wide deployment,” and Genena points to names like Talaat Mostafa Group and Palm Hills as the proximate catalysts. Morsy acknowledges a broader dynamic, but with a caveat — “real estate remains a USD hedge, though perhaps not with the same impact as previous years.”

OUR TAKE- That's partially right — and partially convenient. The company-specific narrative holds, but the macro setup is what makes the move clearer. Single-stock pops can’t fully account for a 21% sector gain in a year when investment-driven purchases had already fallen below 20% of demand — down from 55% in 2024 — signaling that speculative appetite was cooling. Real estate still functions as the market’s default macro hedge in uncertain periods, and a weaker EGP, elevated commodity prices, and a war next door create exactly the kind of environment that pushes money into property.

On the travel and leisure front, the 32.3% gain may be partly a real estate story in a different sector. Orascom Development — which hovered near record highs during the month — is one of the largest names on the index, and a master-developer of El Gouna, Makadi, and Taba Heights, which means it carries real estate exposure alongside its tourism business. To the extent the macro hedge logic driving real estate this year is also lifting Orascom Development, some of the index's movement could reflect the same dynamic rather than a standalone sector thesis.

REMEMBER- 5.6 mn tourists landed in Egypt in 1Q 2026, a 43.5% y-o-y increase from the 3.9 mn recorded during the same period last year. The surge in arrivals pushed quarterly tourism revenues to nearly USD 5.1 bn, up 34% y-o-y.

Where might investors be looking in May? Banks are the laggard with a re-rating case building. “Banks are lagging, but they should re-rate soon,” Morsy says. The higher-for-longer rate environment is keeping margins healthy, lending is growing, and 1Q results so far show profitability gains. “There wasn't a major trigger in April for a bigger move, but I expect a gradual re-rating due to healthy margins and the rate environment,” he adds.

The brokerage league table

In April: Thndr topped the EGX brokerage league table (pdf) last month with a market share of 15%, dethroning EFG Hermes’s brokerage arm (14.9%) and Mubasher (6.3%).

YTD: EFG Hermes retains the top spot with a 16.2% market share, followed by Thndr (12.9%) and Mubasher (6.6%), according to the bourse’s YTD ranking (pdf).