Cost of fueling Egypt’s power grid doubles to EGP 60 bn in the last two months

Good morning, wonderful people and welcome back from the extended holiday. It’s a heavy news morning, most of it macro. We have for you updates on the Madbouly government’s next budget, which carries with it the promise that businesses will be spared new corporate taxes as the Tax Authority continues its drive to widen the tax base rather than wring new revenues out of the folks it already has on file.

MEANWHILE- S&P Global Ratings affirmed Egypt’s ‘B/B’ credit rating with a stable outlook, signaling that the country built strong-enough financial buffers. It’s a welcome assessment that reflects both the buffers cabinet has built and the international community’s increasingly positive outlook on how well officials here have handled the fallout from the US-Israel-Iran war in the Gulf.

AND- The oil ministry is pushing ahead with its drive to lock in energy supplies with Gulf production still off the board amid the war. State gas outfit Egas has inked a preliminary agreement with Cyprus to purchase the entirety of the natural gas produced from the Aphrodite field. Officials recently moved to buy more crude from Libya, news that Israel may be resuming natural gas exports to Egypt, and a gas find by Eni in the Mediterranean that officials believe can be quickly bought into production.

The Madbouly government thinks it can pull off three privatization deals before the end of June, Finance Ministry Ahmed Kouchouk said at a presser on the state budget. The minister didn’t specify how many of the transactions would be IPOs and how many might be stake sales. We have more on the budget in this morning’s news well, below.

On a less cheerful note: Urban inflation accelerated to 15.2% last month, well ahead of estimates.

Watch this space

ECONOMY — The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) is committing EUR 5 bn this year to stabilize economies reeling from the war in the Gulf, according to a statement. Part of this support will head our way, as Egypt is designated as a key recipient in the program's second tier, alongside Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.

Why it matters: Unlike frontline support for countries directly affected — like Lebanon and Jordan — the funding for Egypt is specifically designed as a liquidity backstop for state-owned enterprises and a stabilizer for agrifood producers. This suggests that the EBRD is stepping in to prevent a balance-of-payment crisis from cascading into a domestic energy or food security failure.

What’s next: Expect short-term facilities for state-owned energy utilities to ensure service continuity despite the rising price of energy. Smaller and youth-led businesses could also get a shot in the arm through funding extended to banks. Look for the lender’s focus to toward the rebuilding of trade routes when and if the conflict recedes.

BACKGROUND- We reported last month that the bank was prepping a financial lifeline to Egypt and others in the region. EBRD has deployed some EUR 26.5 bn in our corner of the world (which it calls the “southern and eastern Mediterranean region” since 2012.

Data point

USD 14.4 mn — that’s how much Egypt saved in a single week through its electricity conservation drive. The savings were driven by the government-mandated rationing in April, Electricity Ministry Spokesperson Mansour Abdel Ghani told Ala Masouleety’s Ahmed Moussa earlier this week (watch, runtime: 1:36:46).

ENERGY — The cost of generating electricity nearly doubled in February and March, hitting EGP 60 bn as global crude prices climbed past USD 100 on the back of the Middle East conflict, Asharq Business reports, citing what it says are government officials. While the Finance Ministry is currently absorbing the bulk of the electricity sector’s EGP 500 bn annual deficit, more of the cost overrun will be passed on to businesses..

Why it matters:This is a direct hit to business margins. While most households remain shielded from the full brunt of the crisis, commercial tariffs spiked earlier this month by as much as 91% for initial consumption brackets.

You’re going to hear a lot in the domestic press about the “electricity sector” owing the “petroleum sector” money. That’s bureaucracy-speak “the oil ministry is now selling the electricity ministry petroleum at about 75% below cost.”

What that means for normies: Early closing mandates for retail and entertainment will stay in effect — and we’re probably going to see a push for more remote-work days to shave peak load.

Happening today

Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty is scheduled to meet US Secretary of State Marco Rubio by 8:30 pm Cairo time today in Washington, BBC reports. Rubio is also meeting with the Lebanese and Israeli ambassadors to the US today to discuss ending the ongoing conflict in southern Lebanon.

PSA-

WEATHER- Expect a typical spring day in Cairo today, with a high of 29°C and a low of 17°C, according to our favorite weather app. Expect the mercury to rise tomorrow (a high of 34°C) and Thursday (37°C).

It’s a bit cooler in Alexandria, with a high of 27°C and a low of 16°C.

The big story abroad

The US-Iran ceasefire is still holding after Washington started a blockade of Iranian ports yesterday and said it would seize at sea any vessel that paid a toll to Iran in return for transit through Hormuz. US and Iranian officials are reportedly pursuing a new round of face-to-face talks, aiming to reach an agreement before the two-week ceasefire lapses. Iran has offered to suspend nuclear activity for up to five years (the US is demanding 20).

Want to go deeper? The New York Times thinks Tehran is betting Washington can take less economic pain than Washington can.

From the Dept. of Whistling Past the Grave? Asset management giant BlackRock has upgraded its forecast for US equities, saying it expects the impact of the conflict in Iran to be. The firm raised its outlook a notch to overweight from neutral, arguing that there is “tangible evidence of actions” that will lead to a resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. BlackRock singled-out earnings in the tech sector as especially likely to shield stateside equities from fallout of the regional war.

*** It’s Going Green day — your weekly briefing of all things green in Egypt: EnterpriseAM’s green economy vertical focuses each Tuesday on the business of renewable energy and sustainable practices in Egypt, everything from solar and wind energy through to water, waste management, sustainable building practices and how you can make your business greener, whatever the sector.

In today’s issue: We look at how local waste tech startups are pushing for a traceable and tech-driven industry.