At least 11 people were killed when a gunmen attacked the Coptic Orthodox Mar Mina church and a shop in Helwan before being shot on Friday. “The gunman killed at least nine people, including a policeman, at the church,” Reuters reports. “The Coptic Church said the gunman first shot at a Christian-owned shop 4 km away, killing two people.” Five others were wounded, “including two women who [the Health Ministry] said were in a serious condition.” Witnesses from the scene told The Associated Press that it was bystanders who helped contain the situation. “One man in particular — a 53-year-old resident who pounced on the gunman as he was reloading his automatic rifle — likely saved dozens of lives.” (Tap here for more survivor accounts from The AP and here for videos of the attack)

As Daesh claimed the attack, authorities were able to identify the gunman, whom investigators said was linked to several terrorist attacks since last year. Friday’s attack came a day after a roadside bomb killed six people in Sinai, including a senior military officer. Additional security forces have reportedly been deployed to guard churches around the country ahead of 7 January’s Coptic Christmas celebrations. The Interior Ministry said it has already managed to dismantle a terrorist cell that had attacks planned for New Year’s eve, killing three suspected terrorists in the process.

US President Donald Trump spoke with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi “to offer condolences to the people of Egypt” and “condemned the attack and reiterated that the United States will continue to stand with Egypt in the face of terrorism,” according to a White House statement. The Vatican’s Pope Francis has also expressed his support and condolences.

The attack requires a broad response from “an empowered civil society,” Ha Hellyer says in a piece for The National. “After attacks such as these, the instinct is to focus solely on security solutions. Security solutions are, of course, important – the attackers are violent extremists – but there are wider issues that ought to be addressed.

The story is receiving widespread international coverage, with pickups on Bloomberg, CNN, Al Arabiya, and Asharq Al Awsat. The Associated Press also has a review of recent attacks on Coptic Christians.

CBE keeps rates unchanged in its last meeting of 2017: The central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept the overnight deposit rate at 18.75%, the overnight lending rate at 19.75%, and the rate of its main operation and discount rate unchanged at 19.25% in its meeting last Thursday. Keeping the rates unchanged came in line with expectations. The MPC says that while the drop in inflation accelerated in November due to favorable base effects, “inflation was affected during this period by continuous supply shocks related to fiscal consolidation measures, leading regulated price adjustments to account on average for 44% of monthly headline inflation, in addition to indirect effects on core CPI items.”

Leading indicators also point to continued improvement in economic activity, despite weaker momentum in non-hydrocarbon sectors. The MPC added that it decided that current policy rates remain appropriate and its baseline inflation outlook remains consistent with its targets. The MPC also provided forward guidance saying it will “only reconsider its stance conditional upon data confirming the moderation of underlying inflationary pressures.”

“The timing of interest rate cuts will be determined by: managing consumer expectations to be able to reach CBE inflation targets by 2018 year-end, oil prices and their impact on inflation through subsidy cuts, domestic demand growth as a result of the witnessed pick-up in economic activity, and monetary policy in advanced economies,” Pharos’ head of research Radwa El Swaify told Reuters.

CI Capital Asset Management’s Khaled Darwish sees the CBE cutting rates in 2018. “that will likely prompt more investors to opt for stocks over bonds. Healthcare, infrastructure and consumer shares have the most attractive valuations” he tells Bloomberg.

… Separately, the central bank also announced on Thursday that it is extending its initiative to support the tourism sector until December 2018. The initiative, which was started in February 2016, allows banks to show more leniency in collecting loans from the sector and also be more relaxed in collecting personal loans from people who work in the tourism industry.

The central bank also repaid over USD 2 bn in debt in December, Al Masry Al Youm reports. USD 1.2 bn was repaid to AfreximBank and USD 920 mn to other international bodies. This month, the central bank will be repaying USD 700 mn to the Paris Club debtors.

The paper also reported that the central bank has received the USD 2 bn loan tranche from the IMF on Thursday. The amount represents the third instalment of Egypt’s extended fund facility from the organization.

Debts owed to international oil companies in Egypt should be paid off entirely within two years if work on new fields continues at a reasonable pace and fuel subsidies continue to be reduced, former Oil Minister Osama Kamal says, according to Al Mal. He says about 80% of fuel subsidies do not reach those who are most in need and that the state should redirect spending there towards health and education.

HSBC, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase & Co, Morgan Stanley, and National Bank of Abu Dhabi will be managing Egypt’s upcoming USD 4 bn eurobond issuance, the Finance Ministry announced, according to Bloomberg. Al Tamimi & Co. and Dechert LLP have been chosen as legal advisers. Al Tamimi’s Head of Banking & Finance, Hossam Gramon, and Head of Corporate Commercial, Mohamed Gabr, will lead the firm’s team, according to a statement (pdf). The sale is scheduled for this month but a “final date for the sale has not been set, and the government may not carry out a lengthy roadshow like it did in previous sales,” Minister Amr El Garhy told Bloomberg.

INVESTMENT WATCH- Dubai-based private equity player TVM Capital Healthcare Partners launched a USD 250 mn fund to invest in markets including the GCC, Egypt, Turkey, India, and Singapore, Reuters reports. TVM will make make its investments over the next two years, with the first transaction scheduled to close in 2H2018. “The new fund will aim to deploy the capital, which it plans to raise from global and regional investors, through 10 to 12 investments in areas including cancer, mental health, metabolic diseases, diagnostics, pharmaceuticals and laboratories,” the fund’s operating partner said.

Hassan Allam Properties (HAP) announced partnering with El Mostakbal for Urban Development to co-develop a 250-feddan mixed-use project in Mostakbal City. The project entails investment of EGP 18 bn an is located in the Eastern extension of New Cairo. The new development is planned for mixed-use and is expected to offer retail, commercial space, office parks, and sports facilities alongside the residential development.

The Agriculture Ministry issued new regulations yesterday tightening inspection procedures for guava and pomegranate exports, less than a week after Saudi Arabia issued a temporary ban on imports of Egyptian guavas over concerns of above-average levels of residual pesticides. Under the new directives — which aim to ensure the quality of goods exported from Egypt — the central quarantine administration in Cairo and South Valley became the sole authority responsible for processing and managing inspections and export approvals for both crops, tasking affiliated committees with testing the cargo for pesticide residues first before transport, and then again once it reaches a pre-approved packaging station.

Inspectors are allowed to reject an entire shipment if a single sample proves to be contaminated, the regulations instruct. The ministry has been working to tighten quality assurance measures on agricultural exports — particularly those to the GCC — after a number of countries, including Saudi, Kuwait, and the UAE, decided to suspend imports of some Egyptian crops, such as strawberries and peppers. The ministry had also said in July that it would apply Global Good Agricultural Practices standards on guava exports as of this season. The Agricultural Exports Council announced last week that they were close to sealing an agreement with one of two European labs that would work in conjunction with local inspectors to test samples of produce before its exported. Tap or click here to view the regulations in full, courtesy of Al Mal.

Exports were seemingly unaffected by the consecutive bans on Egyptian agricultural products, as Egypt’s trade deficit narrowed by 26% y-o-y during 11M2017, compared to 13% y-o-y in the same period in 2016, Trade and Industry Minister Tarek Kabil said yesterday, according to Reuters. Imports for the 11-month period dropped to record a total USD 51 bn, compared to USD 61 bn in 11M2016. Meanwhile, exports for the full year 2017 are expected to grow by 10% y-o-y to a total USD 22.4 bn, up from USD 20.4 bn, led mainly by the petrochemicals and fertilizers industry, ready-made garments, electronics, textiles, and food production, Kabil said.

The Trade and Industry Ministry’s strategy to boost exports during 2018 is already in motion, Kabil also said. The minister explained that the five-point strategy will seek to boost exports by enforcing stricter quality control measures and developing inspection procedures and capabilities, in addition to offering a wide range cash and non-cash incentives, such as credit facilities and reduced-interest borrowing under specialized funding initiatives, as well as insurance plans to hedge exporters against risk. The strategy also involves discounting shipping fees by as much 50% to specific locations, including Russia, the Americas, and various African countries, as well as supporting and subsidizing exporters who achieve certain targets. The ministry will also focus on growing Egypt’s network of logistical centers, which will allow products to enter new and previously untapped markets, in addition to aiding local businesses in promoting and marketing their products overseas.

The Supply Ministry’s price-printing policy officially came into effect yesterday, Al Masry Al Youm reports. The decree requires grocers to clearly list prices either on the product’s packaging or on the shelves inside their respective stores. It also aims to control price gouging by forcing vendors to sell goods within a certain price range set by the manufacturer and print the original price on the sale receipt. Several vendors have yet to comply with the directive, and claim that they need some time to implement it, according to Al Shorouk. Minister Ali El Moselhy had previously said grocers will be granted a grace period until 1 February. The policy had been met with outcry from food manufacturers, who objected to an initial proposal that would have forced them to print prices on packaging, arguing that it would add more pressure on the industry by adding to their costs and disrupting the production process with the additional step.

The Ismail Cabinet approved on Thursday the Planning Ministry’s Unified Planning Act and sent it to the Council of State (Maglis El Dawla) for review. The bill sets a framework for the state to regulate the planning and execution of national projects based on their merit, costs, and sources of funding. The ministers also signed off on amendments to the Agriculture Law to impose harsher penalties on farmers who grow certain crops in areas where their cultivation is banned. Violators will now face no more than six months’ imprisonment and a fine ranging from EGP 3,000-20,000. Cabinet also approved legislative amendments that give the oil minister authority to sign oil exploration and production agreements with the Egyptian General Petroleum Company and the Ganoub El Wadi Petroleum Holding Company.

EARNINGS WATCH- Qalaa Holdings reported consolidated net revenues of EGP 2.469 bn in 3Q2017, growing 38% y-o-y from EGP 1.76 bn “on the back of strong growth from energy subsidiaries TAQA Arabia and Tawazon, as well as solid performances at ASEC Holding and ASCOM,” according to the company’s earnings release (pdf). Qalaa’s net loss after minority interest widened to EGP 311.7 mn, from EGP 214.5 mn in 3Q2016, as a result of higher interest expenses and FX losses. The company is working towards improving profitability through “a growth strategy across our subsidiaries, positioning them for further capitalization on current market dynamics and unlocking their full potential,” said Chairman and Founder Ahmed Heikal. “While our bottom-line continues to witness pullback from high interest expenses mostly related to USD-denominated debt booked at the holding level, the effect is short-term, and we anticipate a return to profitability once the Egyptian Refining Company comes online, now 95.7% complete,” said Co-Founder and Managing Director Hisham El Khazindar.

Protests against economic conditions and corruption in Iran carried into a fifth day yesterday, with the violence escalating as protesters attacked police stations, according to Reuters. Around 13 people were reported dead “in the worst wave of unrest since crowds took to the streets in 2009 to condemn the re-election of then-president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.” President Hassan Rouhani has called for calm. US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu unsurprisingly came out in support of the anti-government protests.