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World Bank cuts Egypt’s growth outlook for the current fiscal year to 2.8%

1

What We're Tracking Today

Bidding for the second half of the Zafarana wind farm to open in 2H 2024

Good morning, friends. In today’s issue, we’ve got news of the World Bank downgrading our growth forecast for the current fiscal year, the CBE raising daily withdrawal limits, unconfirmed reports that the government is gearing up to offer up and sell the other half of the Zafarana wind farm by end of this year, and much more for you to read through this morning.

** DID YOU KNOW that we now cover Saudi Arabia and the UAE?

** Were you forwarded this email? Tap or click here to get your own copy delivered every weekday before 7am Cairo time — without charge.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

Bidding for the second half of Zafarana could open this year: The New and Renewable Energy Authority and the Sovereign Fund of Egypt are planning to open up bidding for the second half of the Zafarana wind farm in the latter half of the year, unnamed sources told Al Borsa. Several companies have reportedly already expressed interest in submitting bids and the winning bid will be chosen before the end of the year, the sources added.

Remember: It looks like the sale of the first half of Zafarana could be wrapping soon, as shipping giant Maersk has reportedly begun due diligence for the 545-MW wind farm in February ahead of submitting a final offer.

PSA-

WEATHER- It’s another summery day in Cairo today, with a high of 31°C and a low of 19°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s much the same in Alexandria, with a high of 30°C and a low of 18°C.

HAPPENING TODAY-

It’s day two of the IMF and World Bank spring meetings and Finance Minister Mohamed Maait will take the stage to discuss the country’s “recent policy experience following a series of external shocks.” Titled Egypt: Lessons in Restoring Macroeconomic Stability, the talk will see Maait hold a one-on-one conversation with the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia head Jihad Azour.

Go deeper: Check out the full schedule for the gathering — which kicked off in Washington yesterday and runs through 20 April — here.

Also to look out for: The IMF will release its Outlook and part of its Global Financial Stability report today and its fiscal monitor tomorrow.

And on Maait’s Washington schedule: Maait is also attending the World Bank’s three-day annual health financing forum that wraps up tomorrow and the G20 finance ministers’ meeting running tomorrow and Thursday, according to a statement from the Finance Ministry.

EGP WATCH-

EGP weakens against the greenback on the first day back after Eid break: The EGP fell 1.6% to around 48.30 against the USD yesterday.

In perspective: After falling to around EGP 50 against the greenback after the float of the EGP in March, the national currency has been steadily gaining against the USD. Even with the USD gaining occasionally on the pound in recent weeks, the EGP is still up nearly 3.5% against the USD since the float and a far cry away from pre-float highs of up to EGP 70 against the USD on the now-defunct parallel market.

FACT CHECK-

No, the Roads and Bridges Authority has not taken on the role of transport minister: The Transport Ministry has shot down rumors circulating in local media yesterday that the chairman of the General Authority for Roads and Bridges was granted the same power and responsibilities as the transport minister, in a statement released yesterday. A recent ministerial decision only authorizes the authority to remove encroachments on its properties and land, the statement clarified.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

#1- Attention, culture vultures: The AUC’s Tahrir CultureFest — held at AUC Tahrir Square from Wednesday to Monday — is a celebration of the Cairene spirit. Panel discussions about Cairo’s history, people, and evolving culture will kick off the festival, and will be accompanied by live music, a book bazaar, a local market, and art exhibitions. Register for the event here.

#2- Prepare to turn your clocks an hour forward: Daylight saving time starts on Friday, 26April. You’ll be losing an hour’s sleep as clocks jump forward one hour until the final Thursday of October.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Israel’s senior military officer signaled yesterday that “missiles into the territory of the State of Israel will be met with a response.” Herzi Halevi was speaking in a carefully choreographed set piece, standing in front of an F-35 fighter jet on one of the air bases Iran had targeted in the Sunday missile and drone attack.

WHERE WE STAND NOW: Officials in the Arab world and the West are still working overtime to try to tamp things down, with the United States, the European Union, Germany, France, and the UK all urging Israel to hold back. (FT | WSJ | NYT | Politico)

The tone abroad: A dangerous turning point in the Middle East (FT)

Regional markets were mixed as traders took things in stride: The EGX was up nearly 4%, while the Tadawul and ADX were up slightly and the DFM was largely flat.

US markets reacted much as Mohamed El Erian suggested they would, with major benchmarks sagging at the closing bell. Traders of European equities took things with a bit more equanimity as major benchmarks closed up or little changed yesterday. Oil and gold were up a little bit in overnight trading.

The EnterpriseAM Hyperbole Award™: “We’re now in the prelude to World War III precisely when humanity should rebuild its economy towards the rapid goal of decarbonization.” CNBC used the “prelude to World War III” bit in its front-page coverage of sentiment.

Other headlines worth knowing about:

  • Sales of Apple’s iPhone lineup may have fallen as much as 10% in 1Q 2024, according to independent data, losing a bit of ground as Samsung launched its S24 lineup and Chinese manufacturers Xiaomi and Transsion picked up steam in their home market. (Financial Times)
  • Tesla is laying off up to 10% of its global workforce, CEO Elon Musk said in a memo to employees. The company’s shares were down 3% on the news. (CNBC)
  • Goldman Sachs’ 28% bottom-line growth beat analyst expectations, sending its stock up 3%. Advisory work, underwriting fees, and bond trading fueled income growth. (Reuters)

*** It’s Going Green day — your weekly briefing of all things green in Egypt: Enterprise’s green economy vertical focuses each Tuesday on the business of renewable energy and sustainable practices in Egypt, everything from solar and wind energy through to water, waste management, sustainable building practices and how you can make your business greener, whatever the sector.

In today’s issue: We sat down with Co-CEO of EFG Hermes and CEO of Vortex Energy Karim Moussa to discuss EFG Hermes’ plans for Vortex Energy and what’s next in its investment strategy.

Somabay's second annual Spring Festival: A celebration of life, music, fashion, and fun. Join us for an unforgettable experience at Somabay's second annual Spring Festival, happening from 10-14 April. Discover a world of excitement and connection against the stunning backdrop of the Red Sea. Dance under the stars at beach parties with top DJs, indulge in the latest fashion trends at our beachside fashion show, and savor gourmet delights from our selection of food trucks. With a variety of activities for all ages, this festival is the ultimate Spring getaway you won't want to miss.

2

Economy

World Bank cuts Egypt’s GDP growth for FY 2023/24 to 2.8%

The World Bank has downgraded our growth outlook for the current fiscal year yet again: The international lender has penciled in growth slowing to 2.8% in the state’s FY 2023-24 — a 0.7 percentage point drop from its previous forecast in January and a whole 1.0 percentage point drop from the previous fiscal year — it said in its latest MENA Economic Update (pdf).

The rationale: The bank pointed to our “sluggish industrial sector performance” and high inflation in its assessment of the country’s growth trajectory. The report also highlighted that while the war on Gaza has increased economic uncertainty across the region, “Egypt could suffer the largest fiscal effects from the combined effects of the Suez Canal crisis and the conflict in the Middle East, as a result of lower fiscal revenues and tourism receipts.”

And it could get worse: The downgraded projections “assume that the conflict in the Middle East will not expand,” the report writes, warning that “If fighting were to worsen or continue for a protracted period,” Egypt would face an even greater strain on its FX revenues from tourism and the Suez Canal.

ICYMI: This is the second time already this year that the bank has lowered our growth outlook for the fiscal year. Growth projections were scaled back 0.2 percentage points to 3.5% at the start of the year on the back of ongoing economic challenges and the risk of a heightened regional conflict intensifying “pressures on external accounts through implications on tourism, remittances, and oil trade balance” and exacerbating “the inflation problem, eroding households’ purchasing power and constraining activity in the private sector.”

But on the plus side: The lender now expects the country’s economic growth to pick up next year to 4.2% in the next fiscal year — in line with the Madbouly government’s forecast — a 0.3 percentage point upward revision on its previous outlook.

The bank’s forecast is significantly lower than what the government and other institutions are predicting: The Madbouly government sees the economy growing at a 3.5% clip in the fiscal year ending June 2024, along with S&P Global Ratings. The IMF revised its growth outlook downwards to 3.0% in January.

The World Bank sees our budget deficit widening to 6.5% in 2024, up from 6% in 2023, “as tax revenue shrinks from a slowing economy while interest payments rise because of a devalued currency and monetary tightening.”

But across the region, growth is expected to rebound, with the World Bank forecasting GDP growth accelerating to pre-pandemic levels of 2.7%, up from 1.9% in 2023. GCC economies are expected to see an even bigger rebound, with growth expected to increase to 2.8% in 2024, up 0.9% the year before, as oil production cuts are phased out and non-oil sectors benefit from ongoing diversification efforts.

** You can check out our full rundown of the report’s updated projections for Saudi Arabia on EnterpriseKSA and for the United Arab Emirates onEnterpriseUAE.

3

Economy

Egypt’s account deficit widens over 440% y-o-y in 1H FY 2023-24

Egypt’s current account position has weakened over 441% y-o-y to USD 9.6 bn in 1H FY2023-24, from USD 1.8 bn recorded the same period last year, according to Enterprise calculations based on central bank figures (pdf).

BoP back in the red: Egypt recorded a BoP deficit of USD 410 mn during the first half of the current fiscal year, in comparison to a surplus of USD 599 mn during the same period in the previous fiscal year. On a quarterly basis, the balance of payments in 2Q FY 2023-24 was back in a deficit after two consecutive quarters of recording a surplus.

DRIVING THE DECLINE-

#1- Exports fall: Exports weakened nearly 24% y-o-y in 1H FY 2023-24 to USD 16.4 bn, driven by a 63% y-o-y dip in oil exports, which recorded USD 3.2 bn for the period. This resulted in the trade deficit widening 21% y-o-y to USD 18.7 bn.

#2- Remittances on the decline: Remittances from Egyptians abroad fell 21% y-o-y to USD 9.4 bn during the period between July and December 2023.

#3- Less FDI: Foreign direct investment came in at USD 5.5 bn during the period, down from USD 5.7 bn during the same period in the previous fiscal year.

SOFTENING THE BLOW-

#1- Tourism revenues saw a 6% y-o-y rise to USD 7.8 bn during 1H, driven by an increase in both tourist nights and arrivals. Egypt received 7.8 mn tourists during the period, up almost 15% y-o-y.

#2- Portfolio inflows jump: Investors reversed course and have once again started pouring capital into Egypt, with the country recording USD 253 mn of net portfolio inflows during the half, in comparison to outflows of USD 3 bn recorded during the same period last year.

#3- Despite the disruptions in the Red Sea, Suez Canal receipts were up 21% y-o-y to USD 4.8 bn.

#4- Imports dip: Imports fell over 5% y-o-y to USD 35.1 bn thanks to a dip in oil and non-oil imports.

4

DEBT WATCH

Qalaa Holdings offloads 18% stake in Taqa Arabia to banks in debt settlement agreement

Qalaa offloads 18% of its stake in Taqa Arabia in debt settlement agreement: Qalaa Holdings has signed a debt settlement agreement with a number of banks to settle the entirety of its EGP 4.5 bn debt in exchange for a 17.68% stake — 239 mn shares — in Taqa Arabia and a land plot overlooking the Nile, it said in a statement (pdf).

The banks in question: Qalaa signed the agreement with Banque Misr, Banque du Caire, Arab African International Bank, and Al Ahli Bank of Kuwait.

Qalaa can reacquire its shares: Qalaa — Taqa Arabia’s parent company — will retain the right to repurchase its shares in the energy distribution company from the banks within the next five years, but if that doesn’t happen the banks can resell the shares back to Qalaa in the sixth year.

And for its loans owed to the AIB, Qalaa inked a separate debt restructuring and settlement agreement with the Arab International Bank (AIB), under which it will pay back USD 184 mn in installments between 2024 and 2033 at an interest rate equivalent to the secured overnight financing rate.

Advisors: The Arab International Law Firm represented the banks in the transaction, while Zulficar and Partners represented Qalaa Holdings and its subsidiaries.

MARKET REAX- Qalaa shares on EGX jumped by 19.6% at yesterday’s close following the news.

5

Banking

Egypt’s central bank raises daily withdrawal limit

You can now withdraw more from your bank account: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) has raised the daily limit that individuals and companies can withdraw from their bank accounts both at branches and via ATMs, it said in a circular (pdf) released yesterday.

The new limits: The daily limit on over-the-counter withdrawals has been set at EGP 250k for individuals and companies, up from EGP 150k. Meanwhile, the daily limit on ATM withdrawals now stands at EGP 30k, up from 20k. The limits were last raised in August 2022.

Call for action: The CBE urged local banks to update their internal policies in line with the new limits and to periodically update their maximum withdrawal policy for foreign currencies.

More liquidity in the local banking system: Egyptian banks saw their liquidity rise to EGP 9.1tn in February up from EGP 8.99 tn in January, according to the latest data from the central bank.

6

Energy

Egypt plans to build two solar plants with EU funding

The gov’t is setting up two solar plants with EU funding: The Madbouly government unveiled its plans to build two solar power plants for the state-owned Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC) worth over EGP 1 bn to be financed by a grant from the European Union, the Oil Ministry said in a statement.

Plant #1: The first plant — an EGP 550 mn project — will generate some 10 MW of power for EGPC subsidiary Assiut Oil Refining Company and is expected to be completed in 11 months. The government has tapped a consortium of state-owned petroleum-focused contractors Enppi and Petrojet to carry out the project.

Plant #2: Another EGP 500 mn will go towards a 6.5 MW capacity solar energy project for the EGPC, the statement said without disclosing any further details.

Where is the money coming from? The entirety of the projects’ cost will be covered by a grant from the EU. While the statement doesn’t disclose if the grant is part of the recently announced EUR 7.4 bn aid package we’re getting from the EU, it could be part of the EUR 600 mn in grants the bloc is giving us. The EU also earmarked EUR 35 mn to develop our renewable energy capacities under the government’s Nexus for Food, Water, and Energy initiative in 2022.

Remember: The government wants to generate 42% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030, and wants renewables to make up almost 12% of electricity output this fiscal year.

7

EARNINGS WATCH

Ezz Steel turns to losses in 2023 despite revenue growth

Ezz Steel ends 2023 in the red despite a jump in revenues: Steel giant Ezz Steel turned to losses in 2023 driven by FX exchange losses and falling domestic demand. The company reported net losses of EGP 717 mn for the year, compared to net income of EGP 6.6 bn in 2022, the company said in its latest financialreport. Revenues increased 70% y-o-y to EGP 143 bn for the same period, up from EGP 84 bn in 2022.

Exports almost doubled in 2023: Ezz Steel’s exports reached a record USD 1.6 bn in 2023 —the highest in Egypt’s history for a manufacturing company and almost double 2022’s USD 797 mn. The jump in exports was driven by hot rolled coil and reinforcing steel products. Meanwhile, domestic sales of both products fell y-o-y as Ezz Steel shifted its focus towards exports in 2023.

FX complications drove losses: Ezz Steel recorded FX losses of EGP 30.9 bn in 2023, half of which were the result of arranging “the foreign currency component including the short-term USD banks’ and suppliers’ facilities,” the statement said. The company raised the local prices of HRC and reinforcing steel to absorb the losses.

But things are looking up post float: After a nation-wide decline in the construction industry in 2023, Ezz Steel sees national projects and real estate developments picking up in 2024 following the float of the EGP and the availability of FX through the banking system. Likewise, contrary to the previous year, Ezz Steel has already slashed the prices of its local rebar twice this year on the back of a strengthening EGP. The company expects the EGP to strengthen further and has penciled in the USD falling to EGP 45, according to unconfirmed media reports.

8

Moves

Mohamed Shamroukh tapped as new National Telecom Regulatory Authority head

Mohamed Shamroukh now at the helm of the NTRA: Mohamed Shamroukh (LinkedIn) has been tapped as the CEO of the National Telecom Regulatory Authority (NTRA), according to a statement from the Communications Ministry. After spending over two decades with Telecom Egypt, Shamroukh will leave his current role as the CFO to take the lead at NTRA.

9

LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

Price of non-subsidized bread set to drop up to 25%

The nation’s talking heads were back on the airwaves last night following the end of Ramadan and Eid Al Fitr. While Israel’s war on Gaza and its escalating tensions with Iran were top of the agenda last night, the nation’s hosts also found the time to cover falling bread prices.

Some good news fresh out of the oven: “The prices of non-subsidized bread are expected to drop by between 20% and 25%, thanks to the decline in the prices of flour as a result of the stability of the exchange rate and the elimination of the parallel market for the USD,” Abdullah Ghorab, chief of the bakeries division of the General Federation of Chambers of Commerce told Lamees El Hadidi on Kelma Akhira (watch, runtime: 7:48). Some bakeries had already begun lowering prices two days ago, he added. Ghorab phoned into El Hayat El Youm to discuss the topic (watch, runtime: 5:01).

This publication is proudly sponsored by

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Also on our Radar

Alexbank’s net income rises 76% y-o-y to EGP 5 bn in 2023. PLUS: Next fiscal year’s draft budget goes up for discussion in the House next week

EARNINGS WATCH-

The state’s 20% stake in Alexbank is looking a whole lot more tempting: Alexbank’s net income rose 76% y-o-y to EGP 5 bn in 2023, according to its latest earnings report (pdf). The bank’s total assets also jumped 22% to EGP 161 bn during the year.

ICYMI: The government is working to offload its 20% stake in Alexbank, with majority shareholder Intesa Sanpaolo reportedly in negotiations to add the state’s 20% share to its 80% stake in the company. Former EGX head Ramy El Dokany also suggested last year that shares of the bank could be offered up on the bourse as part of the state’s privatization efforts.

BUDGET WATCH-

Next fiscal year’s draft state budget goes up for discussion next week: Finance Minister Mohamed Maait and Planning Minister Hala El Said will discuss the draft state budget and socioeconomic development plan for FY 2024-25 in the House next Sunday, according to House Budget Committee head Fakhri El Fiki. The state budget and development plan will be voted on before the start of the next fiscal year on 1 July

11

PLANET FINANCE

European Central Bank will likely cut rates this summer

ECB to cut rates in June? The European Central Bank (ECB) will start cutting interest rates in June, Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau told French newspaper Le Journal du Dimanche over the weekend. “Bar a surprise, we should decide on the first cut at our next meeting on 6 June … Our cut early June will have to be followed by other cuts by year-end,” he said.

Where rates currently stand? The ECB kept rates unchanged when it met last Thursday, keeping the deposit rate at a record 4% in place since September.

Meanwhile in the US, June cuts are looking less likely: Traders have ruled out the Federal Reserve slashing rate over the summer — some have penciled in mid-September for when the Fed will start cutting rates, while some don’t see the Fed cutting rates at all this year, Reuters reports. This came in response to March’s inflation data coming in hotter than expected — consumer price inflation rose 3.5% y-o-y up from 3.2% the month before.

THE MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Major Asian benchmarks are all substantially in the red this morning, following Wall Street’s lead: Korea’s Kospi is off 2.1%, the Nikkei is down 1.6%, and the Hang Seng has lost 1.2%. The Shanghai composite is fairing a bit better — it’s off just 0.8% after China reported its economy grew 5.3% in 1Q 2024, beating expectations.

European and US stock futures are largely unchanged, but point to a lower opening later today.

EGX30

29,616

+3.9% (YTD: +19.0%)

USD (CBE)

Buy 48.29

Sell 48.43

USD (CIB)

Buy 48.3

Sell 48.4

Interest rates CBE

27.25% deposit

28.25% lending

Tadawul

12,708

+0.3% (YTD: +6.2%)

ADX

9,254

+0.2% (YTD: -3.4%)

DFM

4,244

0.0% (YTD: +4.5%)

S&P 500

5,062

-1.2% (YTD: +6.1%)

FTSE 100

7,966

-0.4% (YTD: +3.0%)

Euro Stoxx 50

4,984

+0.6% (YTD: +10.1%)

Brent crude

USD 90.10

-0.4%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 1.68

-0.4%

Gold

USD 2,398.40

+0.7%

BTC

USD 63,303.90

-0.7% (YTD: +49.2%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 closed with a 3.9% gain in the first session after the Eid break on turnover of EGP 4.8 bn (5.2% below the 90-day average). Local investors were net buyers. The index is up 19.0% YTD.

In the green: Qalaa Holdings (+19.6%), E-finance (+11.8%), and Elsewedy Electric (+7.1%).

In the red: Orascom Construction (-0.7%), Eastern Company (-0.6%), and Juhayna (-0.3%).

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

#1- GB Corp will pay out dividends of EGP 0.20 per share on its 2023 earnings, it said in an EGX disclosure (pdf).

#2- Cheesemaker Domty will pay out dividends worth EGP 0.50 per share on its2023 earnings, it said in an EGXdisclosure (pdf).

#3- SAIB bank will pay out dividends of USD 0.50 per share, it said in an EGX disclosure (pdf).

12

Going Green

A look at what EFG Hermes’ Vortex Energy has in its renewable energy investment pipeline

What EFG Hermes’ Vortex Energy has in its renewable energy investment pipeline: Adecade ago, EFG Hermes set up its flagship renewable energy platform, Vortex Energy. In the years since, the platform has launched four funds, the first three of which have deployed some EUR 1.6 bn. We recently sat down with Co-CEO of EFG Hermes, an EFG Holding Company, and CEO of Vortex Energy Karim Moussa to discuss EFG Hermes’ plans for Vortex Energy, and what’s next in its investment strategy.

REFRESHER- EFG Hermes set up Vortex Energy in 2014. “It’s the only practice within EFG Hermes’ private equity division that doesn’t invest in the region — only outside the region, with a focus on Europe” Moussa said. EFG Hermes began setting up its renewable energy infrastructure platform in the immediate wake of the Arab Spring, and most countries that were “relevant” to the renewable energy industry were in North Africa and the Levant, which were “deeply held back by the Arab Spring at that time,” Moussa said.

Why Vortex Energy invests where it does: The firm’s management team chose to focus on the asset class, rather than a specific geographic location, Moussa said. “Wind is the same wind, and the sun is the same sun with no specific nationality, and the turbine is the same, whether I install it in Egypt, in Dubai, or in Germany. Once you understand the asset class, you can go everywhere — it’s just the regulatory environment, the offtake agreements, and other such details that change from one country to another.” EFG Hermes pitched the fund to Abu Dhabi sovereign entities to invest in European solar and wind assets.

To date, Vortex Energy has deployed EUR 1.6 bn in equity and debt over a series of funds— Vortex I, Vortex II, Vortex III — including EUR 875 mn in equity, Moussa said. After delivering solid returns to its investors, EFG Hermes now has the Vortex IV fund, on which it reached second close last December. The fund is anchored by EFG Hermes, Abu Dhabi sovereign institutional investors and family offices, and Asian family offices. EFG Hermes “intentionally domiciled Vortex IV in the Abu Dhabi Global Market to recognize the big supporter we had in Abu Dhabi,” Moussa explained.

Today, the renewable energy platform manages USD 400 mn with its co-investment pocket. “It has Spanish renewables developer Ignis Energia, and UK charging solutions provider EO Charging, which was recently awarded a tender for a project for the London bus operator,” Moussa said. EO Charging is a “leader in providing charging solutions for major fleet heavy clients such as Amazon across the UK and Europe and is also active now in the US,” Moussa said, noting that EV charging infrastructure in the US is “severely lacking” in comparison to Europe and there’s a lot of lessons learned from the European players that EO can apply as it moves forward.

What’s next for Vortex Energy: Vortex Energy’s strategy has four pillars — renewable energy generation, battery storage at utility scale, EV charging, and hydrogen and green ammonia. These pillars are essentially divided into one pillar being upstream — renewable energy generation — one in storage, and one in charging, which is consumption and downstream, as well as the fourth pillar in hydrogen and green ammonia. “We currently have one investment in the upstream pillar with Ignis Energia, and we have an investment — EO Charging — in the downstream pillar. We don’t yet have an investment in battery storage and that’s where we’re investing next.” EFG Hermes is currently in the bidding process for a battery storage investment, Moussa said, but declined to provide further details before the transaction goes through.

The structure of the investments: Ignis has invested EUR 300 mn, including EUR 140 mn from the fund and EUR 160 mn from a co-investment pocket. Its style is large transactions and always creating a co-investment pocket for investors to come in. “We feel that this model is very appealing to investors because a lot of investors just don’t want to have full fund exposure, and they also want to have a direct stake. A lot of transactions that we have in the pipeline are large transactions, but we’ll offer the chance to co-invest as well.” We see lots of the sovereign funds’ appetite increasingly more in direct investments, while some investors in the fund will top-up through the co-investment pocket, Moussa said.

But the market dynamics in renewable energy have shifted in the past several years: “Theera of renewables has changed dramatically — when we started out with Vortex Energy, everyone was investing in feed-in tariffs, long-term offtakes guaranteed by the government, and similar frameworks. That was the case both in the region and elsewhere,” Moussa said. In the last decade, the cost of renewable energy went down by 90% as the market matured and allowed it to “stand on its own feet” to be competitive with other traditional sources of energy such as natural gas and coal, Moussa said.

The industry is widening further, and more changes are taking hold: When this shift began taking shape four or five years ago, Moussa said, players in the industry began shifting to mainly corporate power purchasing agreements. “Further, the industry saw tremendous changes when interest rates shot up and prices fluctuated with the war in Ukraine, and the impact of technical issues in the offshore market that affected the sector quite a bit,” Moussa added. The industry has widened now beyond the initial starting point of wind and solar energy and has extended to a wider range, which includes storage, energy management, energy efficiency, green hydrogen and ammonia.

Green hydrogen is growing quickly — but it’s not quite the time for private equity to get a slice: The emergence of these energy sources is “super exciting, albeit not investable for us as a private equity player at this point in time,” as the nascent technology still needs government subsidies and grants — akin to the starting point for wind and solar energy, Moussa said. “Private equity usually comes in at a later stage once the market has matured a bit. That process could be very fast — things moved quite fast with renewable energy — and that’s why we still have green hydrogen and ammonia as a bucket or pillar we intend to invest in, but we haven’t found the right entry point from a PE perspective. It is more likely that we will get first exposure to the sector with our portfolio company Ignis Energia as a starting point soon.”


Your top green economy stories for the week:

  • Capital for Egyptian renewable projects: Hassan Allam Utilities has partnered with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and infrastructure-focused investment company Meridiam to raise capital for its subsidiary HAU Energy BV to invest in local renewable energy projects.
  • Subsidized loan program for renewable energy companies gets greenlight: The cabinet approved a new EGP 120 bn program of subsidized loans for manufacturers in freezones as well as agriculture and renewable energy companies at an interest rate of 15%.

2024

APRIL

15-21 April (Monday-Sunday): The IMF / World Bank Spring Meetings.

25 April (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Sinai Liberation Day (TBC) (national holiday).

26 April (Friday): Clocks move forward one hour at midnight as daylight saving time starts.

28 April (Sunday): Grace period to ins. brokerage firms to comply with Law 215 for 2023 expires.

28-29 April (Sunday-Monday): Saudi Arabia hosts a World Economic Forum (WEF) meeting on ‘global collaboration, growth, and energy.’

29 April (Monday): The government’s car export scheme expires.

MAY

1 May (Wednesday): National holiday in observance of Labor Day (TBC) (national holiday).

2-5 May (Thursday-Sunday): Townhall Expo in Riyadh.

5 May (Sunday): Coptic Easter.

6 May (Monday): Sham El Nessim (national holiday).

20 May (Monday): Malaysian Palm Oil Forum in Cairo, with attendance from Malaysian Plantation and Commodities Minister Johari Abdul Ghani.

23 May (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

29 May (Wednesday): Virtual launch of Chicago Booth Executive Program.

JUNE

15-19 June (Saturday-Wednesday): Eid El Adha (TBC) (national holiday).

29-30 June (Saturday-Sunday): EU-Egypt Investment Conference.

30 June (Sunday): June 30 Revolution Day (national holiday).

JULY

7 July (Sunday): National holiday in observance of Islamic New Year (TBC).

18 July (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

23 July (Tuesday): Revolution Day (national holiday).

SEPTEMBER

2-5 September (Monday-Thursday): Egypt International Airshow, El Alamein International Airport.

5 September (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

15 September (Sunday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

25-26 September (Wednesday - Thursday): The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank’s (AIIB) 2024 annual meeting, Samarkand, Uzbekistan.

OCTOBER

6 October (Sunday): Armed Forces Day.

17 October (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

21-27 October (Monday-Sunday): The World Bank and IMF annual meetings.

NOVEMBER

21 November (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

DECEMBER

26 December (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

April 2024: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi will visit Turkey.

1Q 2024: Egyptian-Qatari Joint Supreme Committee.

1Q 2024: Opening of the newly developed Pyramids Plateau in Giza.

1Q 2024: The government is set to finalize the sale of the Gabal El Zeit wind farm.

February-May: The Grand Egyptian Museum could officially open to visitors.

March 2024: The USD 2.7 bn MIDOR Refinery is set to begin full operations.

May 2024: Egypt to receive USD 20 bn of Ras El Hekma funds.

May 2024: Arab Finance Ministers’ meeting at Egypt’s administrative capital.

June 2024: Gov’t expects to finalize sale of Beni Suef combined-cycle power plant.

1H 2024: Gov’t expects to finalize sale of four water desalination plants.

2H 2024: Gov’t to launch the Cairo Ring Road BRT buses.

November 2024: Egypt to host the World Urban Forum (WUF12).

End of 2024: The launch of the high-speed train line linking Ain Sokhna with Al Alamein City.

2025

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2Q 2025: Safaga Terminal 2 to start operations.

2027

20 January-7 February: Egypt to host the African Games

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

End of 2027: Trial operations at the Dabaa nuclear power plant expected to take place.

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