Egypt looks set to resume LNG exports

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What We're Tracking Today

All eyes on Dubai as the countdown to COP28 begins

Good morning, friends. Two foreign stories in which Egypt is deeply involved will nudge business news off center stage this week: The war in Gaza and COP28.

#1- Israel’s war in Gaza has entered a new phase. Egypt’s diplomatic efforts to negotiate a ceasefire — and then to keep hostage and prisoner releases on track — are the story of the morning. A measure of quiet has descended over Gaza, where more than 12k people have been killed so far as a result of Israel’s war. The ceasefire, which took hold on Friday morning at 7am local time, seems largely to be holding.

The pause in the fighting is set to expire on Tuesday morning, but State Information Service chief Diaa Rashwan said in a statement late yesterday that Egypt was brokering talks with Hamas and Israel to extend the ceasefire for at least one to two days, a development that would give more time to get aid in to Gazans.

COUNTDOWN TO COP28

#2- We’re in the final countdown to COP28, which kicks off on Thursday, bringing together global leaders in science, policy, and business in host city Dubai. The summit runs from 30 November to 12 December.

Setting the agenda: The gathering will focus on fast-tracking the world’s transition to green energy, slashing emissions before 2030, transforming climate finance, and building resilience, the COP28 presidency said in its letter to parties. A big focus of the summer will be the first of the so-called global stocktakes — or “GST” in COP-speak.

What’s a GST? They’re five-year checkpoints that track the progress (or lack thereof) made by the international community since the 2015 Paris Agreement.

Could the loss and damage fund finally see the light? Little progress has been made on the landmark loss and damage fund over the past year after delegates from some 200 nations signed off on the pact at the close of COP27. The fund, championed by Egypt’s climate envoy, Dr. Mahmoud Mohieldin, aims to have wealthy nations pitch into a fund to help vulnerable countries cope with climate change.

Where does it stand? A draft agreement on the fund, reached earlier this month, will be put up for a final vote during COP28, but the AP is warning that it will face challenges getting through.

A new fund to help heavy industry go green? The Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) — a financing scheme under which Western donors help fund developing nation’s transition to green energy — should be replicated for heavy industries and hard-to-abate sectors such as steel, aluminum, cement and fertilizers, Mohieldin told Reuters.

FAST FACT- Emerging markets need some USD 387 bn a year through 2030 to adapt to climate-driven changes, the UN said in a report (pdf).

** Go deeper: Enterprise Climate spoke to Mohieldin earlier this year on all things COP, loss and damage fund, and fossil fuels.

** NEED MORE? Tomorrow’s Enterprise Climate will have the inside track on what you need to know about COP28.

EXPATS VOTE NEXT WEEK-

ELECTION 2023 UPDATE- Egyptians abroad go to polls on 1-3 December to choose between incumbent President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, Al Wafd Party’s Abdel Sanad Yamama, the Egyptian Social Democratic Party’s Farid Zahran, and the Republican People Party’s Party Hazem Omar.

Voters in Egypt will cast their ballots on 10-12 December. First-round results are due on 18 December and a runoff, if necessary, will take place in early January 2024.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

WATCH THIS SPACE

#1- Erdogan could visit Egypt soon: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could touch down in Cairo “soon” to discuss accelerating the evacuation of wounded Palestinians from Gaza, the Turkish president told reporters on Wednesday, according to Turkish news outlet Haberturk. The visit — a first since diplomatic relations between Egypt and Turkey broke down in 2013 — comes as Erdogan calls on the Islamic world to act as a “single fist” on Gaza. “When that fist hits the table with all its force, it will not be possible for Israel to continue its occupation or oppression,” he said. Cairo and Ankara restored full diplomatic ties in July this year.

#2- Our green hydrogen strategy is imminent: The Madbouly government will launch its long-awaited green hydrogen strategy within days, Al Mal reports. The news comes shortly after the National Green Hydrogen Council approved the strategy. We have the full story in this morning’s news well, below.

#3- Companies have until tomorrow to submit bids for the EEHC’s solar tender: The Egyptian Electricity Holding Company (EEHC) will close bidding window for its tender for five concentrated solar power plants tomorrow, Al Mal reported, citing sources it says are involved in the bids. The plants will power desalination plants on the north coast and will have a combined capacity of 250 MW, helping desalinate over 400k cubic meters of water per day. The plants are expected to require USD 270 mn of investment and will be established under 25-year build-own-operate contracts.

There’s plenty of interest from developers:Our friends at Hassan Allam Utilities and Infinity are said to be interested, as are Madkour Group and Smart Engineering Solutions (SES). Foreign bidders include Saudi Arabia’s Acwa Power, Al Nowais’ AMEA Power, Norwegian renewables producer Scatec, Japan’s Toyota, and Spain’s Aquila.

#4- Once, this meant it was any random Tuesday. Today, it’s rarer than hen’s teeth: Foreign VCs are in town to meet with startups: US-based VC firm Plug and Play is coordinating meetings between five foreign VCs — Speedinvest, ENZA Capital, Ingressive Capital, P1 Ventures and DenVC — and 25 local startups to explore possible investment, Plug and Play’s Egypt director, Karima El Hakim, told Al Mal.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

The foreign press is fixated on three main stories this morning: The hostage exchange between Israel and Hamas (we have the details in this morning’s War Watch), Sam Altman’s return to OpenAI, and a large Russian drone attack on Ukraine.

FAST FACT- More women and children have died in Gaza in two weeks than have died in Ukraine in nearly two years.

Sam Altman is back at the helm of OpenAI: Sam Altman was reinstated as CEO of the high-profile AI just five days after his sacking by the board — a move that triggered a riotous response from employees and investors alike and sent shockwaves across Silicon Valley.

OpenAI’s board is out: The board that fired Altman, which was in place to ensure the “safe development” of AI, has been replaced by a three-man provisional board. The board that fired Atlman included two high-profile effective altruists and Ilya Sutskever, a co-founder of OpenAI and its chief scientist. Sutskever helped lead the rebellion against Altman and then flipped sides, saying he would leave the company if Altman did not return as CEO.

So who’s on the board?

US economist and former treasury secretary Larry Summers (someone apparently thinks he’s capable of standing up to Altman ?)
Bret Taylor, a former Facebook and Salesforce exec who was a key player in negotiating the sale of Twitter to Elon Musk;
Quora CEO Adam D’Angelo, the only remaining member of the board that had sacked Altman.

Their mandate: Sort out a proper governance structure and an expanded board, among other things.

There are whispers that an AI breakthrough catalyzed Altman’s sacking: Prior to Altman’s dismissal, a previously unreported letter from staff researchers to the board of directors had warned of a powerful AI discovery that they believed “could threaten humanity,” two sources told Reuters. It was this letter, and the new algorithm finding named Q*, which catalyzed Altman’s ousting, they added.

But the tech press isn’t buying it (yet). Reporters have been unable to track down the letter, and there’s disagreement among experts on whether an AI that can do grade school math is a breakthrough.

See more at: Bloomberg | Financial Times | The Verge.

MARKET WATCH-

OPEC+ pushes back crucial policy meeting: The alliance of oil producers known as OPEC+ will be meeting on Thursday instead of today to decide on next year’s production target, it said in a statement. OPEC members failed to reach a consensus on the output quotas for African members, which caused the delay, Bloomberg wrote. There are signs the alliance moved closer this weekend to reaching an agreement with the African producers, who are aiming for higher quotas, four OPEC+ sources told Reuters.

FACT CHECK- B Investments’ OFH acquisition is still happening: B Investments has denied social media claims that it is backing out of its acquisition of Orascom Financial Holdings (OFH) in an EG X disclosure (pd f). The EGX-listed private equity firm is working with the Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) to finish up the necessary legal procedures before submitting its offer for up to 90% of OFH “as soon as possible.” B Investments has until mid-December to submit its mandatory tender offer (MTO).

DICE FOUNDING FAMILY OWNS 63.4%-

CORRECTION-Dice’s founding family now owns 63.4% of the company after buying back 545 mn shares at EGP 0.80 per share through a mandatory tender offer (MTO), according to a statement (pdf) from Beltone Financial Holding. Last week, we had miscalculated the stake that the founding family’s Toma Company for Commercial and Industrial Investments holds in the company post acquisition. We have since updated the story on our website.

ADVISORS- Beltone’s investment banking arm acted as financial advisor on the transaction, steering the transaction structure and overseeing execution. Beltone Securities acted as broker.

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The developer of Egypt’s new capital could raise more than EGP 150 bn from its planned EGX IPO

ACUD has a target raise for its planned IPO: The developer of the new administrative capital could raise more than EGP 150 bn when it goes ahead with its anticipated IPO on the EGX, company chairman Khaled Abbas told Asharq Business. Administrative Capital for Urban Development (ACUD), a joint venture between the military and the Housing Ministry, plans to offer 5-10% of its shares on the Egyptian Exchange in a sale that some have speculated could be the largest-ever public share sale in Egypt.

An FX overhang?Abbas told the news outlet that the sale could fetch more than EGP 150 bn “after re-evaluating the company’s assets in light of the currency challenges.” The company is looking to increase its paid-in capital to EGP 77.5 bn from EGP 57 bn, making it the largest in Egypt, and its total assets are expected to reach EGP 300-320 bn by the end of the year from EGP 255 bn in 2022, Abbas said. No formal valuation of ACUD has ever been made public.

Which unit goes public? Abbas floated the possibility of either the parent company or a subsidiary being selected for IPO. The decision about which company to list will be made with the advisors working on the transaction, which ACUD is still in the process of appointing, he said. The company could be ready for listing by 2Q 2024, he added.

Dual listing ahead? If the ACUD itself goes public, it will look at the possibility of a dual listing in a Gulf or international market, Abbas said. “Our brothers in the Gulf have many investments in the [MENA] region and they know the proceeds of [investing in real estate], and they can gauge the future returns,” Abbas said.

More than two years in the making: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi first raised the idea of the ACUD going public in 2021. Abbas last talked up the IPO this past September.

Refresher: Since being established in 2016, ACUD has been in charge of selling the 700 square-km new capital land bank to developers and government bodies, awarding construction and services contracts, and supervising the development of the city. The military owns 51% of ACUD and the Housing Ministry holds the remaining 49%.

TWO NEW COMPANIES UP FOR PRIVATIZATION?

Two Transport Ministry entities up for grabs? The Transport Ministry has nominated its investment arm MOT Investment and Projects and the state-owned shipping firm National Navigation Company (NNC) to be added to the privatization program, Al Mal reported, citing sources it says are familiar with the matter. The Transport Ministry has two other companies that it could later consider adding to the program.

NNC already has an interested buyer: French shipping giant CMA CGM expressed interest in acquiring a stake in NNC in July. The ministry-controlled Holding Company for Maritime and Land Transport owns 56% of NNC, the National Bank of Egypt holds 39.9%, while the remainder is owned by private-sector investors.

It looks like we’re about to resume LNG exports: An LNG vessel has arrived at one of Egypt’s liquefaction plants, Bloomberg reports, suggesting that we’re about to resume gas shipments after half a year with virtually no LNG leaving our country. Shipping data obtained by the news outlet shows that a carrier has docked at Idku, though its destination remains unknown.

Remember: LNG exports have been on hold since the first half of the year due to an unusually long summer heatwave, declining local production, and the war in Gaza.

A scorching summer + declining production: Egypt exported barely any gas during the summer months due to soaring local demand and falling production, triggering a months-long power crisis that has seen daily blackouts across the country.
The war compounded problems: Our imports of Israeli gas fell to zero after Chevron halted operations at the Tamar gas field in early October in response to the war in Gaza. The US energy firm restarted production from the field earlier this month and exports to Egypt are said to have returned to pre-war levels of 800 mn cubic feet per day.

Exports so far in 2023 have been less than half of last year’s volumes: Egypt has exported just 3.38 mn metric tons of LNG so far this year, down from 7.1 mn tons during the whole of 2022, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights data. The country has capacity to export more than 12 mn tons a year via its two liquefaction plants at Damietta and Idku.

How much we can export is the big question:The government is said to be calculating how much gas it can allocate to export this winter, with cooler temperatures reducing local demand and war-related disruption easing. Bloomberg projections remain gloomy, expecting export volumes to be 40% lower this winter than it forecast last month.

Egypt’s green hydrogen council approves green hydrogen strategy

Another step towards a green hydrogen strategy: The National Green Hydrogen Council approved the national strategy for green hydrogen on Wednesday ahead of passing it to the Supreme Council of Energy, according to a cabinet statement.

A strategy that gets buy-in from major national and global developers could unlock 10s of bns of USD worth of new investment in solar and wind energy as well as in the building and running of green hydrogen facilities. The Madbouly government is planning a world-scale green hydrogen program that could also give birth to a domestic industry building components ranging from solar panels to bases for wind mills.

What we know: Under a draft decision approved by the Madbouly cabinet in May, companies that implement green hydrogen projects within five years will receive tax breaks of 33-55% on income and pay no VAT on raw materials, plant and machinery bought for the plants.

Ambitious targets: Egypt wants to provide 5-8% of the world’s hydrogen and reduce annual carbon emissions by 40 mn tons by 2040, according to the statement. The strategy also aims to create 100k jobs and add USD 10-18 bn to GDP by the end of the next decade.

Refresher: The strategy aims to provide a regulatory framework for the local production of green hydrogen and has been in the works since 2021. It’s being formulated by the government with help from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. The strategy was set to be unveiled during the COP27 summit in Sharm El Sheikh last November, but has seen multiple delays.

Egypt is going big on green hydrogen: The government signed several framework agreements for green hydrogen projects over the past year, the most recent of which was with China Energy for a USD 6.75 bn plant that will produce 1.2 mn tons of ammonia and 210k tons of hydrogen a year.

ALSO- Egypt exported its first shipment of certified green ammonia: Fertiglobe, a JV between Adnoc and the Sawiris-owned OCI, announced last week it had shipped the world’s first ISCC PLUS-certified (International Sustainability and Carbon Certification) green ammonia. The ammonia was produced at the company’s pilot green hydrogen electrolyzer in Egypt and was shipped to India where it will be used by Unilever to produce soda ash.

Egypt to collect VAT in FX

Sellers are now required to settle their value-added tax (VAT) dues in FX if the service or product they offer is invoiced or paid for in foreign currency, according to a regulatory amendment (pdf) to the Unified Tax Law introduced by the Finance Ministry on Wednesday.

There’s a bit of flexibility: Businesses can settle their foreign-currency VAT dues in local currency if they present evidence that they’ve exchanged FX worth the same amount or more than the value of the VAT within a month of the sale being booked.

What’s next: The amendment will go into effect a day after being published in the Official Gazette.

BACKGROUND- The move is the latest in a string of government measures designed to drum up hard currency in response to the ongoing FX crunch. The shortage of hard currency has triggered the reemergence of a black market, where the EGP has sunk to record lows against the USD in recent days. The currency is currently trading hands at more than 50.0 / USD in the parallel market, almost 40% lower than the official rate.

ALSO- Real-estate-for-fx scheme to extend to the private sector: The government is working on an initiative that could allow Egyptian expats and foreigners to purchase properties from private-sector real estate developers in FX, according to a cabinet statement on Thursday.

Remember: The cabinet approved a decision in July to remove the cap on the number of properties foreigners can own provided that they pay for these properties in hard currency.

Palestinian, Israeli prisoners freed as temporary ceasefire goes into effect

Dozens of Palestinian and Israeli prisoners have been released in the first 48 hours of a four-day ceasefire that is also allowing vital supplies of aid and fuel into Gaza. Since Friday, Hamas has freed 26 Israelis and 15 foreign nationals and Israel has released almost 80 Palestinians under the terms of the agreement, which was brokered by Egyptian and Qatari negotiators during weeks of talks. Some 150 Palestinians, 50 Israelis, and an unknown number of foreign nationals will be freed during the truce, which expires on Tuesday morning. Almost all of those released have been women, children and the elderly.

A bump in the road: Day two of the hostage release didn’t go according to plan, getting held up for several hours following a dispute between the two sides. Egypt helped resolve the impasse, Diaa Rashwan, head of Egypt’s State Information Service, said.

The ceasefire has allowed critical aid into Gaza: The first two days of the ceasefire have allowed medical aid, food, water and fuel into Gaza after supply levels neared zero last week. Aid trucks have increased to around 200 per day, though this remains far below the 500 trucks that crossed the border before the war, with the Palestinian Red Crescent saying yesterday that it does “not even scratch the surface” of the needs of Gaza’s 2.3 mn population. Israel is also allowing 130k liters of fuel a day into the enclave yet this is still just over 10% of pre-war volumes.

An extended temporary truce could be in the cards: Egypt had received ‘positive signs’ of a one- or two-day extension on the ceasefire during intensive negotiations, which would also spell out the release of more hostages in Gaza and Palestinian prisoners in Israeli prisons, Rashwan said yesterday. Under the truce, Israel agreed to extend the ceasefire by one day for every 10 additional hostages released by Hamas.

The likelihood this will be anything other than temporary is remote: Israeli officials have been at pains to emphasize that the truce is temporary and that they will resume their devastating air and ground assault on Gaza in a few days. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant reiterated his goal to completely destroy Hamas and said the IDF could continue the war for another two or three months.

Despite growing diplomatic pressure on Israel from allies: Officials from several European governments have used the lull in the fighting to intensify their criticism of Israel’s war, with the Spanish prime minister accusing it of indiscriminate violence and calling for a Palestinian state at a press conference at the Rafah crossing (watch, runtime: 17:35). In return, Israel accused Spain and Belgium — whose prime minister was also at the presser — of supporting terrorism. The UK has adopted a more critical tone, with the country’s new foreign secretary David Cameron calling the expulsion of Palestinians in the West Bank by extremist settlers “ completely unacceptable.”

El Sisi calls for demilitarized Palestinian state: A future Palestinian state could be demilitarized, with international forces temporarily in place to guarantee security for Egypt and Israel, President Abdel Fattah El Sisi told a press conference in Cairo on Friday, (watch, runtime: 17:35). “We said that we are ready for this state to be demilitarized, and there can also be guarantees of forces, whether Nato forces, UN forces, or Arab or American forces, until we achieve security for both states, the nascent Palestinian state and the Israeli state," he said, alongside the Spanish and Belgian prime ministers.

DIPLOMACY-Biden to El Sisi: No Gaza displacement “under any circumstances” | Arab and Islamic ministers push for permanent ceasefire in London and Paris.

Fitch downgrades Egyptian banks’ operating environment score on ties to sovereign debt

Fitch offers new warning on Egyptian banks: Fitch Ratings has downgraded the operating environment score of four of Egypt’s biggest banks on the back of their high exposure to sovereign debt, the rating agency said Wednesday. This follows on the heels of its decision to downgrade Egypt’s sovereign credit rating earlier this month.

Gauging the operating environment: Fitch measures the operating environment by assessing “the ability of banks to generate business volumes while taking on acceptable levels of risk.” It does this by looking at the GDP per capita of a country and its operational risk index (pdf).

The downgrade: Fitch lowered the score of the National Bank of Egypt, Banque Misr, Banque du Caire, and CIB to ‘B-’ from ‘B’ and revised its outlook to stable from negative. Fitch cut the credit ratings of the banks earlier this month after downgrading its rating for Egypt’s sovereign debt.

The rationale:

#1- Banks are exposed to sovereign debt: “The operating environment score is in line with the sovereign rating as operating conditions for banks are highly correlated with the sovereign profile,” the rating agency said. Fitch estimates that almost 50% of the total assets of Egypt’s banking sector are invested in government debt, creating a significant exposure.

#2- The currency crisis is weighing on investor confidence: The rating agency doesn’t expect a significant increase in FX inflows in 2024 due to weak investor confidence caused by the FX crunch, an overvalued currency, and slow progress on structure reforms. As a result, it forecasts the banking sector’s net foreign asset position to remain negative through next year.

What they said:High inflation, currency pressure, and geopolitical uncertainties are also affecting investor confidence in Egypt, Redmond Ramsdale, Fitch’s head of Middle East Bank Ratings, told Asharq Business in an interview. He went on to predict 3.5% growth in Egypt’s GDP in the current FY 2023-2024, lower than the government’s most recent forecast for 4.2% growth.

WayUp Sports closes seed round led by Beltone’s VC arm

Beltone’s VC arm leads seed round for WayUp Sports: Sports apparel e-commerce platform WayUp Sports has closed a seed round led by Beltone Venture Capital, Index Sports Fund — a private equity fund focused on the sports sector in MENA — and a number of angel investors, the company said in a statement (pdf). Neither the company nor the investors would specify the size of the round.

WayUp: Founded in 2021 by siblings Omar (LinkedIn), Mohamed (LinkedIn), and Basma Afifi (LinkedIn), WayUp Sports offers sportswear and equipment from both local and international brands. The company currently serves over 100k customers and has partnered with more than 70 brands. The company’s sales have grown nine times since it closed its pre-seed round in 2022.

Where the money’s going: The investment will help the company expand across the region, launch its own brand, and upgrade its website and application to enhance user experience. “We are exploring Arab countries and we are aiming to tap our first market in 2024 … and launch the brand in 2Q 2024,” co-founder and co-CEO Mohamed Afifi told Enterprise.

There’s more where that came from:The company intends to raise more funds in 1Q 2024, Afifi told us, without disclosing how much the company is targeting.

The sportswear market is on its way up, too: The MENA region’s sports apparel market is forecasted to grow to USD 23 bn by 2029 from USD 15 bn in 2021, according to the statement.

Hamas-Israel hostage swap dominates the coverage on Egypt’s talk shows

Grabbing the attention of the talking heads last night The hostage swap between Hamas and Israel, the upcoming presidential elections, and rising cigarette prices.

All quiet on the Rafah front: On Day 2 of the temporary ceasefire, Al Qahera News correspondent Yasser Abdel Setar told Lamees El Hadidi that there was a “complete silence” at the border since the truce had begun on Friday. Sixty-one aid trucks had entered Gaza in what was the biggest convoy since 7 October, he added (watch, runtime: 9:25). Hadidi also spoke to Walaa El Salmeen from Al Qahera News, who described the scene at Ofer Prison in Ramallah, where Palestinian prisoners were released at the weekend (watch, runtime: 8:50). We’ve got coverage of the full story above.

Hamas spox explains the delay in releasing hostages: Appearing on El Hekaya, Hamas media advisor Taher El Nounou explained that the armed group had delayed releasing the hostages for a few hours yesterday because Israel didn’t hold up its end of the bargain. Among its list of grievances included breaching the ceasefire, releasing fewer women from Israeli prisons than had been pre-agreed, and restricting the number of trucks that were allowed to enter northern Gaza (watch, runtime: 6:46). Meanwhile, Alaa Masouleety spoke to head of the State Information Service Diaa Rashwan (watch, runtime: 11:19), who reiterated statements made earlier that day on Egypt’s role in the hostage exchange and the possibility of extending the truce.

Election 2023: The presidential election, now just days away, got attention on the airwaves last night. Al Hayah Al Youm followed the campaigns of the four candidates Hazem Omar (watch, runtime: 0:33); Farid Zahran (watch, runtime: 0:27); Abdel Sanad Yamama (watch, runtime: 0:27); and President Abdel Fatah El Sisi (watch, runtime: 1:19). Elections will run between 10-12 December at home while polls will be open on 1-3 December for Egyptian expats.

Masks out: Expect bad weather in the nation’s capital today, with high winds of 50 km/h likely stirring up dust and sand, Egyptian Meteorological Authority official Manar Ghanem told El Hekaya’s Amr Adib. Most governorates will experience moderate temperatures this week, with Cairo at 25°C today, the North Coast at 24°C, and Sinai at 31°C (watch, runtime: 3:26).

Undercover smoker: Amr Adib dedicated more airtime to discussing soaring cigarette prices, and sent out an undercover reporter to investigate the prices at various local stores and stalls. (watch, runtime: 6:38)

Western brands are feeling the heat in Egypt as Gaza boycott spreads

It’s a quiet morning in the foreign press as far as Egypt is concerned:Reuters covers the spreading boycott of Western goods perceived to be aligned in Israel.

Bids roll in for the FRA’s credit rating license. PLUS: Lots of investment news from the Arab agricultural authority, Megamind, and Gulf nations

FINANCIAL SERVICES-

Three consortiums have submitted bids for the credit rating license offered by the Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA), including a joint bid from Beltone Financial Holding and Italy-based CRIF Ratings; MGM Financial Banking and Consultants and India-based Infomerics Valuation and Rating; and a third one from the state-backed credit bureau I-Score and S&P, the regulator said in a statement (pdf).

What’s next:The chosen consortium will be announced before the end of the year, FRA Deputy Chairman Islam Azzam told Asharq Business.

FYI- CBE out with new regs: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) has issued a set of regulations (pdf) for credit rating agencies, giving firms a 12-month period to make sure their operations abide by the new rules.

Refresher: The application for the FRA’s license opened in August, allowing a new local credit rating agency to step in with only one license up for grabs. The Middle East Rating and Investors Service (MERIS) is currently our only credit rating agency.

INVESTMENT-

#1- Arab agricultural authority to invest USD 100 mn in Egypt: The pan-Arab Arab Authority for Agricultural Investment and Development (AAAID) is planning to invest USD 100 mn in Egypt over the next three years, the authority’s chief Mohamed bin Obaid Al Mazrooei told Asharq Business on the sidelines of the Gulf-Egyptian Business Forum during the weekend. The AAAID is interested in agricultural crops and livestock production, with a focus on sugar, oils, dairy, and grains.

#2- Megamind eyeing EGP 4 bn investment in healthcare automation:Saudi-based IT services and consulting firm Megamind is in talks to implement a EGP 4 bn project aimed at automating Egypt’s healthcare sector, CEO Hamza Batterjee told Al Mal last week without elaborating.

Megamind is no stranger to Egypt: Megamind, which has two offices in Egypt, has implemented automation projects for the Saudi German Hospital in Cairo and Alexandria.

#3- Is something finally happening with the proposed Egypt-Oman investment fund?Egypt and Oman are in talks to establish a fund for investing in sectors of agriculture, manufacturing, food, and pharma, the Planning Ministry said Friday following trade talks. The two countries have been talking about this for a while: The idea for a joint fund first surfaced back in 2018,

#4-Speaking of potential Gulf investments: During its time in Cairo to partake in the Egyptian-Bahraini Government Committee, a Bahraini delegation met with a number of Egyptian officials including Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly to discuss potential investment opportunities in tourism, aluminum, and postal services. The Bahraini side pledged to double trade exchange between the two countries to USD 1 bn and the two sides reached agreements on a number of undisclosed MoUs and initiatives. The delegation also discussed potential investments with the SCZone head Walid Gamal El Din and Trade Minister Ahmed Samir.

We’re gearing up for a lot of investments from the Gulf, especially Saudi investors, who have expressed interest in spending over a combined USD 2 bn in Egyptian investments last week.

CABINET WATCH-

Cabinet earmarks land in New Valley and Aswan to set up renewable energy stations: Ministers approved allocating a 10k sq km land plot in the New Valley governorate and a 46.7 sq km plot in Benban to the New and Renewable Energy Authority (NREA) to build renewable energy stations, the cabinet said Wednesday, without giving further details.

AND- East Qantara is getting a dry port: The cabinet also approved a decision to establish a dry port in East Qantara in Ismailia governorate.

REGULATION-

The CBE’s anti-money laundering unit just got more powerful: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) has published the new executive regulations (pdf) for the Anti Money Laundering (AML) Act. The amended regulations authorize the government’s AML and terrorism funding unit to implement the law, deciding the legal requirements to be imposed on financial institutions and businesses and handling interagency communications. Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly approved amendments in September.

US gives Gulf wealth funds the side-eye over China dealings

US cracks down on Beijing influence via Middle East deals: Gulf sovereign wealth funds undertaking acquisitions in the US are being investigated for their ties to China, writes Bloomberg, citing anonymous sources reportedly close to the deals. Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Authority and Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund are reportedly under review by members of President Joe Biden’s cabinet on concerns that they pose a national security risk. Beijing’s push to strengthen political ties in the Middle Eastern region comes as Gulf funds have funneled USD 2.3 bn into the Asian country, prompting “increased sensitivity” within the Biden administration and leading the Committee of Foreign Investments in the US to step up its enquiries.

ALSO WORTH NOTING-

Huge rate hike in Turkey: The Turkish central bank hiked interest rates by 500 bps to 40% on Thursday, double what was projected by analysts, as policymakers lok to get a grip on soaring inflation and a weakening currency. (Bloomberg)

Wobbly EU banks: Eurozone banks are showing “early signs of stress” as default rates and late payments rise from historical lows. (European Central Bank Financial Stability Review, pdf).

EGX30	25,519	+2.0% (YTD: +74.8%)
USD (CBE)	Buy 30.83	Sell 30.96
USD at CIB	Buy 30.85	Sell 30.95
Interest rates CBE	19.25% deposit	20.25% lending
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THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 2.0% at Thursday’s close on turnover of EGP 4.6 bn (66.5% above the 90-day average). Local investors were net sellers. The index is up 74.8% YTD.

In the green: Juhayna (+7.6%), Credit Agricole (+6.2%) and CIB (+5.1%).

In the red: Talaat Moustafa Group (-2.0%), Eastern Company (-1.2%) and Madinet Masr (-0.8%).

CALENDAR

NOVEMBER

30 November (Thursday): OPEC+ Ministerial Meeting takes place virtually.

30 November-12 December (Thursday-Tuesday): COP28, Dubai.

DECEMBER

1-3 December (Friday-Sunday): Egyptian expats vote in the presidential election.

4-7 December (Monday-Thursday): Egypt Defence Expo, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

9-15 December (Saturday-Friday) :The Engineering Export Council of Egypt’strade mission to Saudi Arabia.

10-11 December (Sunday-Monday): eGlobe Expo, St. Regis Almasa Hotel, Cairo.

10-12 December (Sunday-Tuesday): Voting in presidential election takes place in Egypt.

12-13 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Reserve interest rate meeting.

12-14 December (Tuesday-Thursday): Food Africa Expo, Egypt International Exhibition Center.

14 December (Thursday): Bidding deadline for five gold mine concessions in the Eastern Desert.

20 December (Wednesday): End of sugar export ban.

21 December (Thursday): Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting.

Signposted to happen sometime in December:

Gov’t expects to finalize sale of a stake in military-owned bottled drinks company Safi
Gov’t expects to finalize stake sale for military-owned fuel retailer Wataniya.
Gov’t expects to finalize sale of Zafarana wind farm
FRA to announce chosen consortium for credit rating license
Kenyan trade conference in Egypt.

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

2H 2023: Egyptian government expected to sign agreements with a consultant for the EuroAfrica electricity interconnector.

2H 2023: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expected to hold a summit.

3Q 2023: E-Finance to launch in Saudi Arabia.

4Q 2023: EGX to launch its new futures exchange.

4Q 2023: EGX to launch a shariah-compliant index.

End of 2023: A Developments’ first phase of the Lazoghly development completed.

2024: Standard Chartered Bank to open a branch in Egypt.

25 February 2024 (Sunday): Deadline for bidders for oil and gas expansion in the 23 new regions.

Q1 2024: Opening of the new developed Pyramids Plateau in Giza.

June 2024: Gov’t expects to finalize sale of Beni Suef combined-cycle power plant.

1H 2024: Gov’t expects to finalize sale of four water desalination plants.

2H 2024: Gov’t to launch the Cairo Ring Road BRT buses.

End of 2024: The launch of the high-speed train line linking Ain Sokhna with Al Alamein City.

November 2024: Egypt to host the 12th session of the World Urban Forum (WUF12).

2Q 2025: Safaga Terminal 2 to start operations.

2024

EVENTS WITH NO SET DATE

The Grand Egyptian Museum could be officially open to visitors some time between February and May 2024 .

Q1 2024: Opening of the newly developed Pyramids Plateau in Giza.

JANUARY

1 January (Monday): Egypt to join the Brics.

7 January (Sunday): Coptic Christmas.

17 January (Wednesday): A delegation of Egyptian companies to visit Istanbul.

25 January (Thursday): Revolution day.

FEBRUARY

11 February (Sunday): The deadline to apply for the Chicago Booth Executive Program

APRIL

9 April (Tuesday): Eid El Fitr (TBC).

25 April (Thursday): National holiday in observance of Sinai Liberation Day (TBC).

MAY

1 May (Wednesday): National holiday in observance of Labor Day (TBC).

5 May (Sunday): Coptic Easter.

6 May (Monday): Sham El Nessim (TBC).

29 May (Wednesday): Chicago Booth Executive Program

JUNE

15-19 June (Saturday-Wednesday): Eid El Adha (TBC).

30 June (Sunday): June 30 Revolution Day.

JULY

7 July (Sunday): National holiday in observance of Islamic New Year (TBC).

23 July (Tuesday): Revolution Day.

SEPTEMBER

2-5 September (Monday-Thursday): Egypt International Airshow, El Alamein International Airport.

15 September (Sunday): National holiday in observance of Prophet Muhammad’s birthday (TBC).

OCTOBER

6 October (Sunday): Armed Forces Day.

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