Egypt’s annual urban headline inflation slows for third consecutive month

Locally, it was a week of relief and belt-tightening. Inflation cooled for a third straight month to 12.7%, and Goldman Sachs called the EGP more than 30% undervalued, even as the Cabinet ordered three months of spending restraint, the state trimmed industrial gas by a third, and drugmakers pushed for price increases after October’s slide. Abroad, the mood was jittery: Nvidia probed its own CEO, who later resigned, while US, Russian, and Ukrainian delegations met for the first time since February, and a USD 2.5 tn Nasdaq 100 selloff left credit investors wary of AI debt.

ECONOMY-

Annual urban headline inflation slowed for a third consecutive month to 12.7% in October, down from 13.9% in September, its lowest level since January. Annual core inflation, a gauge computed by the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) that strips out volatile prices, eased to 13.1% from 14.1%. On a monthly basis, headline prices rose just 0.7%, slowing from September’s 1.3% clip.

Goldman Sachs thinks the EGP is trading more than 30% below fair value after October’s currency slide, making it one of the most undervalued emerging market currencies. The bank now sees the USD at EGP 53 in three months, 52 in six, and 50 in 12.

TRADE-

Exporters will get an average of 35% more in government support under a revamped export rebate program the Cabinet approved on Thursday, 5 November. The new rates already apply to shipments from the start of this month. The increase varies by sector and excludes freezone exporters. Freight gets its own support line, with the program covering 50% of sea and land freight costs to Africa, Latin America, Australia, Southeast Asia, and Russia.

MEANWHILE- The Cabinet approved a draft decree on Thursday ordering three months of public spending rationalization across all state budget entities and public economic authorities, extendable if needed. Events in the Middle East require the state to reorder its spending priorities to contain the crisis’s fallout. Any spending with a foreign currency component now needs the Finance Ministry’s approval, coordinated with the CBE.

CAPITAL MARKETS-

Orascom Construction’s board approved the capital increase needed to deliver its merger with Dutch-listed OCI Global on Thursday, 5 November. The EGX-listed company is issuing 97.2 mn new shares to OCI, lifting its issued capital to USD 207.4 mn, up from USD 110.2 mn. That written resolution was the last scheduled approval step on Orascom’s side, coming after shareholder approval of the swap in January and OCI shareholders’ sign-off on 30 October. The new shares are due to list on the EGX and the ADX on 24 November.

EARNINGS-

Newly listed MNT Tech Holding for Financial Investments more than doubled its net income q-o-q to EGP 836 mn in 3Q 2026 since debuting on the EGX on 20 October. Revenue climbed 15% q-o-q to EGP 5.4 bn, and annualized return on average equity rose 20 percentage points to 41.1%. Most of the q-o-q jump came from offloading income, cheaper funding, and a one-off gain.

AND- Banque du Caire’s consolidated net income fell 20% y-o-y to EGP 4.17 bn in 3Q 2026, by our math based on the state-owned lender’s first post-IPO earnings release. Net income was also down 13.1% q-o-q in the quarter, though it’s still up 4.7% y-o-y to EGP 13.11 bn over the first nine months of the year.

ALSO- Our friends at CIRA Education more than tripled their normalized net income to EGP 966.9 mn in FY 2025/26 as revenue rose 33% to EGP 5.1 bn. Most of the growth came from higher education, where enrollment jumped 50% to 38.8k students and pushed available-seat utilization to 95% from 67%, while the K-12 network grew to 30 schools across nine governorates.

M&A-

The National Bank of Egypt (NBE) expects to close its acquisition of Banque Misr’s UAE branches by the end of November or mid-December. The transaction now has near-final approval from the Central Bank of the UAE, with only commercial registry procedures left before final sign-off. NBE has finished due diligence and valued the branches at a 1.02x book, under terms that leave Banque Misr liable for any obligations that surface within a year of closing.

ENERGY-

The Niat and Rasgha wind projects at Ras Ghareb reached financial close, with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the European Investment Bank, and German Investment Corporation each providing a third of a USD 436 mn debt package (around USD 145.3 mn apiece, by our math). The two 250 MW farms cost USD 626 mn combined and are due to start commercial operation by the end of 2028.

MAJOR HEADLINES THIS WEEK-

Nvidia’s Jensen Huang resigned as president, CEO, and board member, effective immediately, the company announced yesterday. CFO Colette Kress is now interim CEO, and the board will search for a permanent successor. Shares dropped more than 13% following the news.

The exit follows days of mounting pressure: Nvidia had opened an independent investigation into whether Huang “has been the target of a foreign intelligence effort” after the Financial Times reported his romantic involvement with a Megaspeed executive, whom US intelligence believes was recruited by China’s State Security Ministry. Megaspeed is a Singapore-based Nvidia customer under US scrutiny for allegedly smuggling chips into China. The New York Times then reported a second extramarital affair with a Nvidia executive who reported to Huang, and The Wall Street Journal reported that the board was preparing to remove him.

US, Russian, and Ukrainian delegations met this week for their first talks since February. Russia struck energy facilities around Kyiv ahead of the talks, killing at least two as temperatures near zero. The talks ended without a breakthrough. On Iran, US President Donald Trump called renewed strikes “highly unlikely,” while State Secretary Marco Rubio dismissed Iran’s demands as “outrageous and ridiculous.” Separately, France blamed Iran for October’s supermarket cyberattack on some 700 retailers, summoning Iran’s ambassador and planning sanctions at the European level.

IN WASHINGTON- Trump instructed the Justice Department to open an investigation into Democrats, who have promised to scrutinize his handling of the Epstein files, tariffs, immigration policy, and stock trading once they take control of Congress in January.

IN ISRAEL- President Herzog tapped opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot to form the next government, backed by 67 incoming lawmakers to Netanyahu’s 46. Eisenkot has 28 days, extendable by 14, but his centrist bloc holds only 48 seats, and he has ruled out relying on the two Arab-led parties that hold 19.

IN THE BUSINESS PRESS- Banks and credit investors are reportedly pulling back from AI debt, even with guarantees from big tech names, after a selloff erased USD 2.5 tn from the Nasdaq 100 last Thursday. China’s trade surplus topped USD 1 tn for the second straight year, reaching USD 1.04 tn in the first 10 months of the year.