How Egypt decides who loses power when gas runs short

An energy shortage doesn’t arrive the same way for everyone. It can run between a household that keeps its power and a factory that loses its gas, or a hotel still serving dinner and a restaurant forced to close. Having traced the gas shortfall and the summer that held, we arrive at the next question: if there isn’t enough energy to meet everyone’s needs, who has to do with less?

The answer has changed from one emergency to the next: Rather than a single published ranking, the approach relies on a series of sector-specific measures — deployed as market conditions dictate and rolled back when pressures ease.

A power cut, a gas cut, and a closing order are three different things. Switching off electricity to a neighbourhood, reducing a factory’s gas allocation, and ordering a shop to close early each land differently. A nitrogen fertilizer plant can have electricity yet remain idle without natural gas feedstock; a restaurant can keep its lights on yet be officially mandated to halt service.

Who makes the call?

Whether your street goes dark is decided well above the control room. In September 2024, the oil and electricity ministries gathered supply and demand data before taking outage options to the Cabinet, which chose between one-hour, two-hour or no cuts. The Oil Ministry manages fuel allocations and supplies; the Electricity Ministry assesses system needs. When gas supplies constrained generation, the Egyptian Electricity Holding Company (EEHC) implemented the resulting load-shedding.

Then comes procurement, enforcement, and negotiation. Egas sought additional LNG cargoes in 2024, while manufacturers later asked the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC) to import on their behalf. Local authorities handled conservation, while industry groups escalated supply problems to the government. What remains unclear is a current rulebook defining which factories lose gas first, how much they must retain, or what compensation follows.

A rulebook, if Egypt introduced one, would weigh more than just who earns USDs: Curtailment should start with non-essential and flexible industrial users, with power generation, critical services, and strategic industries higher up the list, AUC professor Abdelaziz Khlaifat tells us. But the order should flex with energy efficiency, contractual obligations, employment, and “the time required for safe shutdown or restart,” he adds.

Who gets protected

The mall’s air conditioning setting has been policy since 2022: In August 2022 the government explicitly linked electricity conservation to diverting gas for export and bringing in FX. State buildings were mandated to switch off lighting outside working hours, streets and storefronts to use less lighting, and malls to keep air conditioning at 25°C or above.

By the next summer, the trade-offs reached your working week: The government introduced rolling blackouts, cut industrial gas supplies, increased mazut use and formed a cabinet crisis committee. Hospitals and strategic facilities were spared, while coastal areas kept their lights on to protect tourism. Households and public services also absorbed the squeeze, with civil servants working remotely on Sundays and sporting events moved before sunset where possible.

Exporters can lose their place in the queue

Fertilizers show why “exporters first” is too simple: In August 2023, some fertilizer producers were reportedly receiving 20% less gas as supplies were diverted to the grid. Industry figures warned that reduced output could force manufacturers to cut exports to meet domestic requirements, sacrificing FX earnings in the process. The same choice returned in 2024, when the Oil Ministry reportedly reduced fertilizer gas supplies by 20-30% in early June to feed power generators. Shutdown coverage identified Abu Qir Fertilizers, Mopco, Kima, and EgyFert among affected producers, alongside petrochemical company Sidpec.

A year later, even scheduled maintenance exposed the vulnerability. After Israeli imports fell, fertilizer makers faced a 50% gas supply cut over 15 days in May 2025, with some forecasting a 30% production decline. By early June, fertilizer and petrochemical plants were reportedly receiving just 450-500 mmcf/d against usual needs of 770 mmcf/d. The emergency laid bare the priority: the Oil Ministry cut about 900 mmcf/d from energy-intensive industries, including steel, fertilizers and petrochemicals, to supply power stations. Diesel and mazut deliveries to food and cement factories were also suspended for 14 days.

Getting the gas back became its own negotiation — and reached the grocery bill. By late June 2025, fertilizer makers were prioritized because of local obligations and export contracts, while other industries received up to 70% of normal supply. September protocols formalized priorities across domestic agriculture, commercial sales and exports, as farmers reported delays and turned to more expensive open-market purchases. The export obligation helped determine who recovered first, but did not prevent the initial disruption.

The same shortage hits differently

Cement barely noticed, because it stopped depending on gas years ago. Producers reduced their reliance on natural gas following the 2012-2013 crisis, according to our retrospective industry reporting. At the time, 16 of 18 cement producers used coal somewhere in production, and several listed companies said higher gas prices would not affect production lines that did not use it. By June 2025, cement plants were described as largely unaffected by the gas disruption because they relied on coal. Their resilience came from their fuel mix.

Steel’s exposure depends on how steel is made. Direct-reduction plants were affected in 2025. Separate pricing coverage illustrates the difference, with industry estimates putting the cost of a USD 1/mmBtu gas price increase at around EGP 500 per ton for integrated plants, versus no more than EGP 50 for rolling mills, where gas use is largely for furnace heating. Meanwhile, our June 2025 reporting found brick factories largely escaping the disruption, while surpluses cushioned ceramics.

Outside heavy industry, losing electricity could mean losing the product itself. Our June 2024 industry interviews documented poultry farms losing their entire barns of chickens as heatwaves coincided with interrupted cooling. An appliance industry representative estimated a 40% production reduction, while food manufacturers said gas interruptions were their main problem and some were relying on reserves.

When the cut reaches your evening out

Fast forward to this summer that “didn’t break” — thankfully — despite regional disruptions to energy flows, the March conservation package rolled out a 9pm weekday curfew for shops, malls, restaurants, cafes, extended to 10pm on Thursdays and Fridays. It also reduced street lighting, switched off roadside advertising, curtailed government-building use, and slowed diesel-intensive projects.

For the places you go after dark, that removed their busiest hours: In April, we sat down with the owners of your favorite go-to places. Tipsy Camel’s founder said 85-90% of revenue normally came after 9pm, while Brass Monkey put the figure at 80-90%. Babbo’s Eats estimated that early closing erased 60% of revenue, forcing operators to pivot to breakfasts, brunches, and daytime events.

Where you were mattered as much as when: Hotels and tourism establishments were exempt, although businesses reported disputes over how those exemptions applied. However, shop and cafe owners described reduced shifts, cut jobs, and lost sales. Eventually, closing hours were relaxed to 11pm before the cabinet’s crisis committee scrapped the commercial curfew. Sunday remote work was extended at that point.

Buying industry more breathing room

Industry was also promised a larger share of imported LNG. In May, the Oil Ministry allocated five cargoes a month to industry starting June, up from one. The reported allocation amounted to 16 bcf monthly, with more than 65% earmarked for fertilizers, petrochemicals, and steel, with a reported cost of USD 300-350 mn.

The idea had been developing since the previous summer. In June 2025, the government was considering three monthly cargoes for fertilizer and petrochemical producers, over four months, with factories covering the cost. Producers separately asked EGPC to import on their behalf, proposing USD payment, while the Federation of Egyptian Industries suggested an import-support fund financed with 20% of export proceeds.

More secure supply came with pressure to pay for it, and that lands in what you buy. The government raised industrial gas prices in September 2025, then began working on a broader pricing formula reflecting domestic production and import costs. Our February fertilizer analysis described the resulting tension between maintaining supply, domestic agricultural obligations, and producers’ margins.

The cost of losing gas doesn’t show up neatly in a company’s bottom line. Reliable supply helped Mopco produce above plan in 1Q 2026, with sales up 29% to EGP 8.2 bn and exports generating 78.5% of sales revenue — showing what is at stake when gas reaches an export-oriented factory. But Abu Qir’s 9M FY 2024/25 net income decline reflected lower FX gains and investment distributions.

Keeping the lights on is only one measure of what energy shortage costs. The lights may stay on at home even as a gas squeeze starts to hit businesses, industry and agriculture. Until there is enough reliable supply to make those trade-offs less necessary, the question is whose loss the country is prepared to bear.