TMG Saudi signed a preliminary deal for a second Saudi project that would be about twice the size of Benan City

Good morning, folks. We have a couple of big money moves to dive into today. The first is about hundreds of thousands of small retail trades, and the other involves a Gulf giant with a hefty domestic expansion plan.

The EGX is being priced by individuals, and there may be implications. Retail investors account for the majority of daily trading, buying and selling at record volumes… but with little to show for it. Traders we spoke with say there’s a method to the madness, while others worry that uninformed investors might wreak havoc on the market.

In another area of investment, Adnoc Distribution is weighing a USD 1 bn investment plan to more than double its Egypt station count and become the country's largest private fuel retailer. We unpack the mechanics of the plan and why it matters in the news well below.

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Cairo Food Week’s Hoda El-Sherif on stories, flavors, and community: Is Egyptian food having a moment? And more importantly, is our cuisine finally claiming its seat at the global table?

Hoda El-Sherif says, “It’s coming.”

Hoda is the co-founder and CEO of Flavor Republic, and the force behind Cairo Food Week, kicking off its fourth edition on 24 September.

Listen to the episode on: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Anghami | YouTube

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Riyadh’s newest address

TMG Saudi embarks on new mixed-use project in the Kingdom: Talaat Moustafa Group’s (TMG) Saudi arm inked a preliminary agreement with Roshn Group, a subsidiary of KSA’s Public Investment Fund (PIF), to develop a mixed-use project in Riyadh, according to a bourse filing (pdf). The proposed joint venture — 51% owned by TMG — is exploring a 55k-home development in the Saudi capital, alongside retail, offices, hotels, entertainment, healthcare, education, parks, and public spaces. No timeline, project value, or plot size details were given.

Why it matters: The real estate giant says the project gives it another source of foreign currency earnings and a bigger footprint in the Kingdom, while letting Roshn put more of its land bank to work as demand for integrated communities grows. The residential piece alone is roughly twice the size of Benan City, TMG’s first project outside Egypt, which was first flagged in September 2023 and is set to bring nearly 28k homes to a SAR 65 bn development in eastern Riyadh.

IN CONTEXT- The preliminary agreement follows a non-binding MoU TMG Saudi signed with PIF in June. The Benan project was already contributing more than half of the group’s real estate revenues by 1Q 2026, following an earlier entertainment JV formed with PIF-owned Sela in May. But Saudi is one of three overseas markets for the developer, alongside Oman and Iraq. In Oman, TMG is developing two mixed-use projects, a residential development in Sultan Haitham City and a beachfront tourism development in Al Shakhakhit worth a combined USD 4.7 bn. Meanwhile, it licensed a USD 10 bn, 43k-unit megaproject in Baghdad back in June.

MARKET REAX- TMG’s stock closed down 1.15% at EGP 94.7 yesterday.

All in favor, Tamweely in hand

E-finance received shareholders’ approval to buy 99.32% of MSME lender Tamweely Financial Services at an extraordinary general meeting late last week, according to the meeting minutes (pdf). E-finance will raise its capital by about EGP 73 mn to EGP 1.81 bn by issuing 146.1 mn new shares, all of them going to Turin Egypt, Tamweely’s principal shareholder, which ends up with about 4.04% of the enlarged company.

Turin gets paid three ways: For each Tamweely share, it takes roughly 65 E-finance shares, EGP 425.7 in cash, and a deferred amount that only lands in 2028 once Tamweely’s audited accounts are out and the performance targets in the sale agreement have been tested.

REFRESHER- E-finance agreed last month to pay as much as EGP 4.8 bn for Tamweely, matching the lender’s book with the cashflow data already running through the fintech’s rails. That is EGP 956.4 mn in upfront cash plus the new shares at EGP 26.34 apiece, with the balance riding on net income targets for FY 2026 and FY 2027. The price is 71% above the EGP 2.8 bn that a consortium of SPE Capital, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Tanmiya Capital Ventures, and British International Investment paid to take the lender out of state hands in September 2024. Management said they’re aiming to close this quarter or the next.

A live offer

Nassef Sawiris’ take-private of OCI Global is now the gate the Orascom merger has to clear. NNS Holding opened its EUR 4.10-a-share cash offer for all of OCI’s shares last week after Dutch regulator AFM approved the offer memorandum, according to a statement (pdf). The tender closes 17 November. The court-appointed directors consented to a vote on the Orascom combination on the condition that NNS first settles the offer — so the merger EGX-listed Orascom holders approved in January can’t execute until OCI’s minorities are bought out and paid. On NNS’s timetable, that lands around 27 November, by our math, a month shy of the 30 December long-stop. NNS can extend the tender once, by up to 10 weeks. OCI has called an EGM for 30 October on the offer, the combination, and a separate OCI Nitrogen sale.

NNS has been quietly shrinking OCI’s freefloat ahead of the tender. Buying stock on the open market through July (pdf) and August (pdf) — below its own EUR 4.10 offer price — took NNS’s stake from 49.21% in mid-April to 57.32%, or 57.50% including Sawiris’ personal shares. NNS says the buying let early sellers exit without it paying above EUR 4.10. Add the Sawiris family's separate 9.07% block, already locked in support of the deal, and 66.6% of OCI is spoken for before a single share is formally tendered. That leaves roughly a third of the company — worth c. EUR 290 mn at the offer price — still with outside shareholders NNS needs to bring on board.

REFRESHER- The Enterprise Chamber froze the OCI-side vote in January over Sawiris’ conflict on both sides of the transaction, and installed two independent directors with veto powers. Orascom shareholders approved the transaction earlier this year at a 0.4634 exchange ratio, but OCI was barred from putting it to its own shareholders. Value8 asked the same court this month to block it.

More institutional funding ahead

The International Finance Corporation (IFC) is mulling an equity investment of up to USD 20 mn in local proptech platform Nawy, according to a disclosure. The IFC expects the investment to boost MSME productivity, expand micro-entrepreneurship prospects — particularly for women — and drive local market competitiveness by scaling a digital real estate platform.

Lining up institutional investments: Nawy’s mortgage arm, Nawy Now, raised EGP 633 mn after Synergy Capital’s asset-management firm, Misr for Financial Investments, closed the second issuance of its shariah-compliant, Ijarah-based fixed-income fund earlier this month.

PSA-

WEATHER- Another light summer day ahead in Cairo today, with a high of 31°C and a low of 22°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s similarly nice in Alexandria, with a high of 30°C and a low of 23°C.

The big story abroad

Major US banks project that the federal government will issue as much as USD 1 tn in short-term Treasury bills in the coming year, amid efforts by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to limit surges in long-term rates. This reliance on short-dated debt may expose Washington to increased financial risk if interest rates continue to climb, with borrowing costs reaching their highest level since 2007.

On the geopolitical front: The Trump administration is seeking to slap the International Criminal Court (ICC) with sweeping sanctions, aiming to prohibit most transactions with the institution after a grace period of six to seven months. Washington’s retaliatory action against the ICC — prompted by its arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — could be finalized during or shortly after this week’s UN General Assembly.

Takeover of Aussie developer falls short: Sydney-based property group Ingenia has turned down a USD 1.5 bn takeover bid by private equity giant Warburg Pincus on account of the proposal undervaluing the firm. The sweetened bid — at AUD 5.05 per share — followed an earlier proposal that valued the firm at AUD 4.75 per share.

*** It’s Blackboard day: We have our weekly look at the business of education in Egypt, from pre-K through the highest reaches of higher ed.

In today’s issue: We look into why Egypt’s push to attract foreign students may be undercut by low prices and low bars for admission.