imports pull further ahead of local assembly in March

Sales in Egypt’s automotive industry saw a steady increase in March, with the total market growing 3.2% m-o-m to 17.8k units, according to figures from the Automotive Marketing Information Council (Amic). Growth was driven by consumers rushing to buy cars ahead of anticipated price hikes amid regional tensions and a fresh wave of electric vehicle (EV) adoption due to persistently rising fuel costs, according to several industry experts who spoke to EnterpriseAM.

The commercial segments went in the opposite direction, with bus sales declining 15% m-o-m — dropping to 1.2k units in March — and trucks showing slight signs of cooling from February.

Imports outpace local assembly

The consumer market’s preference for completely built-up (CBU) imports over locally assembled (CKD) units persists. Despite a push for domestic assembly, imported CBU sales hit 8.2k units in March, surpassing the 5.9k units that rolled off local assembly lines. In the broader YTD figures, CBU growth hit 77.6%, compared to just 40.7% for local assembly.

IN CONTEXT- The gap comes as the Madbouly government pushes to make Egypt a regional manufacturing hub. The revamped Automotive Industry Development Program (AIDP) lowered the entry threshold for local components to 20%, targeting 60% value-added over time. The state has also folded the auto sector into its export subsidy scheme at 4.5-5.5%, matching high-value engineering. Mansour Group’s MAC for Mobility Manufacturing recently secured an EGP 2.7 bn loan for an assembly plant due in 1Q 2027.

What’s driving the split

The gap doesn’t signal a structural shift toward imported cars. CBU imports are gaining ground mainly because dealers are clearing inventory and local manufacturers misjudged how quickly demand would rebound, Khaled Saad, secretary-general of the Egyptian Association of Automobile Manufacturers, tells EnterpriseAM. “Local manufacturers did not expect sales to rise so suddenly after a six-month market standstill,” Saad says, adding that dealers are offloading accumulated CBU stock to make room for 2027 models.

Buyers are also prioritizing quick delivery, responding to “immediate availability and more stable pricing,” Tamer Kotb, vice president of Abu Ghaly Motors, tells EnterpriseAM. CKD volumes remain constrained by production cycles, localization limits, and supply chain dependencies, making local assembly less responsive to short-term demand spikes, he says.

The CBU-CKD split tracks price brackets and perceived quality, the high-profile industry analyst (and Cars with Maged Youtube host) Maged El Tawil says. “For entry-level cars like the Nissan Sunny or Hyundai Elantra, CKD remains the hottest seller because they are as cheap as they get,” he says. But as prices climb toward the EGP 1.5 mn benchmark for the average SUV, the math shifts. “People are willing to pay the extra thinking that local quality is not up to par,” he explains, and CBU becomes more competitive and trusted in that segment.

A race against inflation and a scramble for inventory: March sales cooled relative to February’s pre-war retail data, but supply-side pressure hasn’t eased. As Egypt’s economic outlook shifted early in the year, Saad describes recent activity as a scramble by importers to secure inventory before the war triggered anticipated shortages. “The major problem today is finding space on a cargo ship headed to Egypt … Everyone is pushing to bring in the largest quantities possible and secure their shipments at any price,” he says. Kotb notes that active consumers rushed to clear available stock to hedge against inflation, sensing imminent price hikes from FX volatility and importers’ announced increases.

EVs gain ground, but supply chains stay shaky

EVs still account for a small fraction of the passenger car market, but they're carving out a more visible niche. March data showed 290 units from Chinese automotive giants BYD, Zeekr, and Lynk&Co hitting the Egyptian market, Kotb tells us. Kotb, who forecast this rise in December, credits early adoption momentum, stronger value propositions like warranties and service packages, and rising consumer sensitivity to soaring gas prices. “The customer has begun to feel secure with EVs because they save about 60% of usual operating costs,” Saad says.

Supply chain disruptions from escalating global tensions still weigh on the market. EV and CBU growth reflects a market reacting to availability and pricing swings rather than a structural shift, Kotb tells us, citing “supply chain instability, increased shipping costs, and war risk ins. premiums” as ongoing challenges.