Good morning, all. It’s another busy day for local business news, leaving us with a lot to look forward to — including renewed chatter about the privatization of Banque du Caire, more support for the hospitality sector, and a forum to lure in US investors.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- There’s noise about Banque du Caire this morning, with Al Mal citing unnamed sources as saying that plans are afoot to list the lender in 2H 2025.

We’re taking that report with a teaspoon of salt: Gulf-based lenders have long shown interest in BdC, with one Emirati bank having made a serious approach pre-covid, only to be rebuffed. We think it likely that Banque du Caire very much remains an acquisition target for ambitious strategics.

There’s been plenty of Emirati appetite for good Egyptian banking and finance assets: The UAE’s largest lender — FAB — made a run at EFG Hermes back in 2022, while Dalia Khorshid has restored Beltone’s mojo, strategic ambitions, and profitability in the two years since the investment bank was acquired by Abu Dhabi’s Chimera. Chimera also took stakes in high-profile non-bank financial services outfits including GB Lease and MNT Investments.

IN CONTEXT- The (very welcome) strategic alliance between Egypt and the UAE is clearly maturing thanks to investments including Modon-quarterbacked Ras El Hekma and Al Dahra’s ambitious plans in agriculture.

Recent movement on BdC: Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly last week used a presser to talk up BdC as a privatization target for 2025, noting it as one of 10 names in which the state could offer stakes. He also mentioned Alexbank, which is largely held by Italian lender Intesa Sanpaolo.

Our take: Don’t hold your breath for an IPO. Banque du Caire has been a perennial privatization prospect, generally in the context of an IPO. And the state has successfully offloaded a 30% stake in CBE-owned United Bank, which hit the EGX last week following a heavily oversubscribed IPO.

Why? There’s a massive difference in size, scope, and ambition between United and BdC. The central bank skilfully cobbled United together from smaller, non-viable institutions as part of a bold cleanup of the sector. BdC is not just one of the nation’s largest lenders, it’s among the crown jewels of the financial system, and the central bank together with management has long invested in preparing it for sale. With the 2025 IPO climate shrouded in uncertainty, the odds of the state getting the best possible valuation (to say nothing of finding a good “corporate parent” for the bank) would be maximized by selling Banque du Caire to a qualified strategic — ideally an Emirati one.

#2- Egyptian-US Investment Forum in the works: Egypt will host the Egyptian-US Investment Forum in 1H 2025 to promote American investment in Egypt, according to a cabinet statement. The forum will focus on exploring cooperation in key sectors and showcasing potential investments, namely in the renewables, digital transformation, automotive, and data center sectors. There’s no word yet on the timing or location of the gathering.

#3- More support for hospitality players? The Madbouly government is looking into launching a new initiative to support investors looking to set up new hotels in the local market, Tourism Minister Sherif Fathy said during a presser yesterday. The initiative is pending discussions with the Finance Ministry and the central bank, seeing as they will be providing the funds needed, he explained.

Remember: The government aims to attract some 25 mn tourists annually by 2028. To that end, it plans to add some 240-250k rooms to existing hotel room capacity. That’s at least 20% more than the 200k hotel rooms that were initially planned. The finance and tourism ministries launched the EGP 50 bn subsidized loan program for hospitality players last month.

IN THE HOUSE-

Investment Minister Hassan El Khatib outlined his ministry’s vision in an address to MPs yesterday. The ministry’s strategy focuses on creating a more attractive and competitive investment climate, enhancing the role of the private sector in the economy, and boosting exports, he told the House. “We aim to have Egypt rank among the top 20 countries in terms of foreign trade by 2030 through introducing clearcut measures that will help boost exports to above USD 145 bn,” he said.

Acknowledging the problem: “There are countries near us where a company can come to exist in 24 hours, and that includes Egyptian companies. We suffer from procedural burdens,” El Khatib told MPs. He also pointed to the high cost of imports — “The cost of imports in Egypt is 6x that of Morocco and 12x that of India.”

That’s not all: El Khatib told the House that there’s a plan to double the assets and investments managed by the Sovereign Fund of Egypt in the coming period. The move aims to maximise returns from the state’s underutilized assets through innovative management strategies and private sector partnerships.

Also from yesterday’s session: MPs preliminary approved the draft Criminal Procedures Law after weeks of discussions. The House will discuss the bill’s articles in upcoming sessions. The House also greenlit a number of draft bills on maritime transport, which we dive into in this week’s Hardhat in the news well, below.

The House will break and reconvene on 29 December.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- Investors still have two days to grab a piece of Catalyst’s SPAC capital increase: Investors have today and tomorrow to subscribe to Impact investor Catalyst Partners’ SPAC, Catalyst Partners Middle East’ (CMPE) capital increase. The offering aims to raise the SPAC’s capital to EGP 235 mn through 22.5 mn shares — valued at EGP 10 per share — and was fully covered during its first day, sources close to the transaction told EnterpriseAM.

Remember: The SPAC is looking to acquire six to ten companies — including two fintech and NBFS firms — the firm’s Chairman Maged Shawky previously said.

#2- Foreign ministers of D-8 member states are in town for the D-8 Council of Foreign Ministers Session — taking place later today — and the D-8 Summit — being held on Thursday. Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty will head the meeting.

On the D-8 summit invitation list: Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will be making his first trip to Cairo to attend the summit tomorrow, according to Reuters. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, and Bangladeshi Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus are also confirmed guests attending the summit held in Cairo.

Remember:Egypt took over the rotating presidency of the D-8 cooperation and is heading the group until the end of 2025. During its time as president, Egypt aims to set up several networks, including those of economic research centers and diplomatic training centers that will benefit all D-8 member states — Bangladesh, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The clock is ticking on SIC’s offer: CIRA Education shareholders have 20 working days to respond to Social Impact Capital’s MTO for up to an additional 48.78%, according to an EGX bulletin (pdf). Shareholders have until 16 January to respond to the offer — the acquisition will be executed within the five working days that follow.

ICYMI- SIC has offered to purchase some 284.3 mn of CIRA’s shares at EGP 15 a piece putting the transaction’s value at EGP 4.26 bn. SIC currently holds a 51.2% stake in the country’s leading private education company. The FRA greenlit the offer earlier this week.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

FROM THE DEBT MARKETS-

The Central Bank of Egypt auctioned off EGP 1.9 bn in two- and three-year fixed-rate t-bonds at an average yield of 25.49% for two-year bonds and 24.3% for three-year bonds, according to data on the central bank’s website. The auction saw bids worth EGP 36.5 for rates as high as 34%. The amount auctioned off was significantly below the original ask of EGP 17 bn.

DATA POINT-

#1- Egypt has trimmed its fuel consumption 6% to 171 grams per kWh “over the past few months,” Electricity Minister Mahmoud Essmat said at the Al Ahram Energy Conference, according to a statement. The reduction in demand is saving the country some EGP 1.2 bn on a monthly basis.

#2- The Cairo-Jeddah route was the second busiest flight route in the world this year with 5.5 mn passengers travelling the route, according to a OAG’s Busiest Flight Routes Report. The Hong Kong-Taipei route was the world’s busiest route with 6.8 mn passengers.

PSA-

WEATHER- It’s another cold day in Cairo, with a high of 21°C and a low of 11°C, according to our favorite weather app.

It’s almost as cold in Alexandria, with a high of 22°C and a low of 12°C.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

No single story is capturing the attention of the foreign pages this morning — among those worth noting:

Japan’s Nissan and Honda are in talks over a potential merger, which could help the auto giants stay resilient in the face of increased competition from EV players. The two sides are expected to ink an MoU soon to officially kick off discussions of “partnership-broadening steps, including the details of a potential merger.” The news sent Nissan's shares soaring, rising as much as 24%, while Honda’s shares fell as much as 3.4%. (FT | Reuters | Bloomberg | NYT | BBC | The Guardian)

IN NEW YORK- Luigi Mangione has been indicted for the murder of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson, facing charges of first-degree murder and terrorism after gunning down Thompson outside a Manhattan hotel earlier this month. The killing, described as a “well planned attack meant to sow terror,” has sparked public debate about healthcare costs in the US and donations to Mangione’s legal defense fund. Mangione’s extradition hearing is set for Thursday in Pennsylvania, where he is being held on unrelated gun charges. (Reuters | CNN | NYT | AP)

*** It’s Hardhat day — your weekly briefing of all things infrastructure in Egypt: Enterprise’s industry vertical focuses each Wednesday on infrastructure, covering everything from energy, water, transportation, and urban development, as well as social infrastructure such as health and education.

In today’s issue: We look at how government efforts to change up maritime transport can impact the sector.

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