And Fitch makes three: Fitch Ratings followed in the footsteps of S&P Global Ratings and Moody’s in downgrading our sovereign credit rating deeper into junk on Friday, voicing concerns about our debt sustainability. In a statement Friday, Fitch said it had cut our credit rating to B- from B due to “increased risks to external financing, macroeconomic stability and the trajectory of already-high government debt” in addition to slow reform progress and FX constraints.

Things could improve in the months ahead: Fitch revised its outlook to stable from negative on the expectation that the government will accelerate reforms — including on the exchange rate, privatization and reduced infrastructure spending — after the presidential election in December. This will “likely pave the way for a new and potentially larger IMF program and additional support from the GCC.”

Currency uncertainty: “The Central Bank of Egypt's (CBE) ability to restore exchange rate and monetary credibility is uncertain,” Fitch said. “Floating the EGP, without rebuilding confidence and FX availability in the official market, may be associated with significant overshooting of interest rates and inflation … Delays in adjustment aggravate these risks, in our view.”

We’ve got a lot of debt due this year and the next — and it’ll probably get more expensive to service — and our financing options are limited, noting that we are “increasingly reliant on FDI” to cover our current account deficit.

FinMin reax: “The Egyptian economy is still capable of facing challenges and providing external financing needs,” Finance Minister Mohamed Maait said yesterday. Maait highlighted that we can access USD 5 bn annually from international development banks with easy terms and argued that this reflects the confidence of these institutions in the country’s economic trajectory. Egypt has identified sources for external financing of USD 4 bn until the end of FY 23-24, Maait added, including a recent CNY-bond issuance and a JPY-denominated offer that was completed on Thursday.

The international press also had the story: Reuters | Bloomberg.

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