If this is what a long weekend gets us, we’ll go on holiday no more… We have an exceptionally busy (and downbeat) issue for you all this morning. Among the big headlines:

  • Moody’s has downgraded us;
  • The IMF is pushing us hard on devaluation ;
  • The World Bank has downgraded its growth forecast for Egypt;
  • At least two banks have banned FX-denominated payments and withdrawals on EGP debit cards;
  • The Biden administration is looking for a way forward after a US senator blocked all of our rights-continent military assistance.

Oh, and Hamas and Israel are at war.

It was already set to be a busy week on the economy front as the IMF and World Bank annual meetings get underway tomorrow in Marrakech, with the next edition of the World Economic Outlook due out on Tuesday.

^^ We have the rundown on all of these stories and more in this morning’s issue, below.

** Our apologies for being late this morning, but we’ve had unexpected technical gremlins show up. We’ll be back to our customary dispatch time tomorrow morning.

WATCH THESE SPACES-

#1- Two banks just stepped up overseas FX restrictions — and more could follow: A number of banks have begun blocking customers from using EGP debit cards outside the country in a bid to preserve foreign currency. Reuters reported late last week that AAIB and Arab International Bank had notified customers that they would no longer be able to use their cards for FX withdrawals or payments. AAIB has also lowered the amounts that customers can withdraw and use for payments outside the country, according to Masrawy.

Watch this space: Other banks may put in place similar measures this week, Reuters reports, citing an unnamed source.

#2- Elab, Ethydco, EDC stake sales to happen before year end: The government will finalize the sale of minority stakes in Egyptian Ethylene and Derivatives Company (Ethydco), Egyptian Linear Alkyl Benzene (Elab), and Egyptian Drilling Company (EDC) to Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund ADQ before the end of the year, Oil Minister Tarek El Molla told Asharq Business (watch, runtime: 7:07).

Remember: An initial agreement was reached earlier this year for the fund to purchase 25-30% stakes in the three companies for USD 800 mn. The government was originally aiming to complete the sale before the end of 3Q 2023.

This means the Sidpec-Ethydco merger is on ice: The upcoming all-share merger between Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals (Sidpec) and Ethydco has been temporarily postponed until the ADQ acquisition is complete.

#3- ACUD is on the lookout for a global financial advisor: The Administrative Capital for Urban Development (ACUD) — the new administrative capital’s developer and manager — is looking to hire international financial advisors for its IPO that’s set to debut in the first half of 2024 on the EGX, ACUD Chairman Khaled Abbas told Asharq Business. Abbas said in an interview last month that the military-and-Housing Ministry-owned company is considering offering 5-10% of its shares to investors in a public share sale.

Remember: The company’s former chairman said last year that it had hired CI Capital to advise on the planned IPO.

#4- A big push for UAE investment: Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly, Finance Minister Minister Mohamed Maiit, CBE Governor Hassan Abdalla, and other senior officials met with UAE Investment Minister Mohamed Hassan Alsuwaidi on Tuesday, according to a cabinet statement. Madbouly highlighted government efforts to promote the private sector and encourage foreign direct investment, the statement added.

#5- Cabinet extends its approval for issuing panda ponds until the end of the fiscal yea r so the Finance Ministry is able to make the necessary preparations , cabinet said in a statement. The CNY-denominated panda bonds worth USD 500 mn could be a cornerstone of the Finance Ministry’s target of securing USD 1.5-2 bn in fresh funding by the end of 4Q 2023.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

Inflation figures are due out on Tuesday. Inflation clocked in at 37.4% in August, marking a third consecutive month of record-breaking highs.

HAPPENING IN THE HOUSE-

#1- Tax thresholds and expat car import scheme up for discussion: The House of Representatives’ budget committee will hold three meetings today to discuss amendments to raise the income tax exemption threshold by 25% for state employees to EGP 45k from EGP 36k and a bill that will allow the government to re-open its expat car import initiative for three months to raise much-needed FX.

#2- Emergency cost of living measures passed last week: The House Manpower Committee gave final approval to President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s new social support measures last Wednesday. The committee approved amendments to the 2022 law that would raise the exceptional cost of living allowance to EGP 600 for all state employees starting this month, double the EGP 300 paid out previously.

#3- Old rent top of the agenda: Newly elected chair of the House Housing Committee, Mohamed Attia El Fayoumi, told the media that amending the old rent law will be at the top of the committee’s agenda in the coming legislative season. President Abdel Fattah El Sisi urged lawmakers to address the old rent law last week, telling a conference in the new capital that it is “unacceptable” that property owners are unable to take economic advantage of what he said amount to 2 mn housing units across the country.

Senate committee elections last week saw only one change, with Ali Mahran elected chair of the Senate’s health committee. Presidential hopeful Hazem Omar was re-elected to his position as the chair of the Senate’s foreign relations committee after the Senate declined to discuss his resignation and clarified that there was nothing in the “constitution or the Senate’s internal bylaws [to] prevent Omar from standing in the upcoming presidential elections” as a member of the Senate.

ELECTION 2023-

El Sisi files running papers: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s campaign manager, Mahmoud Fawzy, has filed with the National Elections Authority (NEA) paperwork to allow El Sisi to run in December’s presidential poll, a statement said on Saturday. El Sisi – who also completed the required medical examinations on Saturday – has secured 424 endorsements from members of Parliament in addition to more than 1.1 mn citizen declarations of support, the statement added.

Remember: Candidates must receive no less than 25k endorsements from eligible citizens with the right to vote from at least 15 governorates, with a minimum of 1k supporters from each governorate. The NEA will accept election candidate applications until Saturday, 14 October.

Three other candidates could be joining El Sisi soon: The Wafd Party’s Abdel Sanad Yamama, the Egyptian Social Democratic Party’s Farid Zahran, and the Republican People’s Party Hazem Omar all secured the required endorsements from members of parliament earlier this week.

And two others are vying for a spot on the ballot: Former MP Ahmed Tantawi and head of the Dostour Party Gameela Ismail are also trying to collect signatures to secure a place in the election.

The timeline: Egyptians will go to the polls in December to elect a president for a new six-year term. Polls will be open at home on 10-12 December, while expats will vote on 1-3 December. The results will be announced on December 18, with a runoff in early 2024 if there is no clear winner.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Israel declares war on Hamas after militants kill hundreds of Israelis in shock attack: The Israeli military has launched retaliatory airstrikes in the Gaza Strip after Hamas gunmen killed at least 250 Israelis in a shock ground attack early on Saturday. More than 230 people in Gaza have died in the strikes in what international media is calling the deadliest day of violence in Israel since the 1973 war. Hamas also launched thousands of missiles at Israel and took dozens of hostages, prompting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to declare war on the militant group and vow to inflict an “unprecedented price.” (Associated Press | Reuters | Bloomberg | Financial Times | New York Times)

Global leaders are urging a halt to violence: Egypt, usually the chief mediator between the Palestinians and Israelis during conflict, alongside Saudi Arabia and Jordan, have called for an immediate halt to the clashes between Israeli and Palestinian forces. Egypt’s foreign ministry warned of “grave consequences” resulting from an escalation of violence. Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry has held various phone conversations with international and regional counterparts to investigate how to diffuse the tensions in the Gaza Strip, including the US, Russia, Germany, Turkey, the UAE, France, Spain and the EU, while President Abdel Fattah El Sisi spoke with his counterparts from France and Iraq.

Israel calls on Egypt to mediate hostage release: Israel has called on Egypt to help mediate the release of an undisclosed number of Israeli soldiers and citizens being held hostage by Hamas, reports the Wall Street Journal, citing Egyptian government officials.

NOBEL PEACE PRIZE-

The imprisoned Iranian activist Narges Mohammadi was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize on Friday for her work against the oppression of women in her country. Mohammadi has been convicted five times by the Iranian regime for her work and handed prison sentences totalling 31 years and 154 lashes. This year’s prize was dedicated to those behind Iran’s anti-morality protests that have been ongoing in the country for the past year, the Norwegian Nobel Committee said. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani condemned the prize as a “spiteful and politically motivated” move, reported Iranian state news agency Tasnim. (Reuters | Bloomberg | BBC)

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