Under a best-case scenario with the ongoing pandemic, Egypt’s tourism industry is expected to lose out on c.73% of its revenue in 2020, according to a report (pdf) from the National Planning Institute. The best-case scenario would entail a recovery beginning in 3Q2020 with flights resuming by mid-June or early July. The persistence of the pandemic would still put a damper on leisure travel, however, and would result in the country’s tourism industry closing out the year with USD 3.45 bn in revenues. Under a less optimistic scenario, normal life and travel would fully resume by 4Q2020, which would give Egypt 25% of its regular tourist arrival and income. This scenario assumes a total of 750k tourist arrivals and USD 3.1 bn in revenues throughout the year. The final (and worst-case) scenario, which assumes the virus continues to spread aggressively until December and travel restrictions remain in place until the end of the year, would result in a 100% y-o-y drop in Egypt’s tourist arrival figures from April until December.

Tags: