EGP / USD CBE market average: Buy 17.86 | Sell 17.95

EGP / USD at CIB: Buy 17.86 | Sell 17.96

EGP / USD at NBE: Buy 17.78 | Sell 17.88

EGX30 (Monday): 12,476 (+2.8%)

Turnover: EGP 742 mn (6% below the 90-day average)

EGX 30 year-to-date: -16.9%

THE MARKET ON MONDAY: The EGX30 ended Monday’s session up 2.8%. CIB, the index heaviest constituent ended up 3.2%. EGX30’s top performing constituents were Elsewedy Electric up 5.5%, and Pioneers Holding up 5.3%, and Heliopolis Housing up 5.1%. Yesterday’s worst performing stocks were Ibnsina Pharma down 1.6%. The market turnover was EGP 742 mn, and regional investors were the sole net sellers.

Foreigners: Net Long | EGP +46.5 mn

Regional: Net Short | EGP -98.1 mn

Domestic: Net Long | EGP +51.7 mn

Retail: 43.1% of total trades | 41.5% of buyers | 44.7% of sellers

Institutions: 56.9% of total trades | 58.5% of buyers | 55.3% of sellers

***

PHAROS VIEW

Pharos View — Domestic inflation dynamics and EM conditions dictate rate stability: Pharos Holdings sees domestic inflation dynamics and high yields in emerging markets support keeping interest rates where they are in the CBE’s upcoming MPC meeting on 27 December. Egypt’s after-tax yield is 15.96%, which is still competitive among yields in other EMs — such as Turkey, Argentina, and Nigeria — due to Egypt’s moderate risk levels, as reflected by the CDS rates. This comes as foreign ownership of domestic short-term debt has declined 17% m-o-m at the end of October 2018 to USD 11.8 bn, down from USD 13.1 bn in September 2018. On the inflation front, Pharos expects the monthly inflation rate to accelerate 0.5% in December 2018. This acceleration will mainly be driven by the change in the customs exchange rate. Inflation is expected to accelerate further in 2Q2018-19 to 16.5%, before tapering off to reach 16.4% and 16.1% in 3Q2018-19 and 4Q2018-19, respectively. You can view the full report here (pdf).

***

WTI: USD 50.96 (-0.08%)

Brent: USD 59.97 (-2.76%)

Natural Gas (Nymex, futures prices) USD 4.51 MMBtu, (-0.68%, January 2019 contract)

Gold: USD 1,249.60 / troy ounce (+0.02%)

TASI: 7,819.67 (-0.25%) (YTD: +8.21%)

ADX: 4,789.30 (-0.97%) (YTD: +8.89%)

DFM: 2,449.93 (-1.98%) (YTD: -25.82%)

KSE Premier Market: 5,401.75 (-0.74%)

QE: 10,555.81 (-0.46%) (YTD: +23.85%)

MSM: 4,503.49 (-0.97%) (YTD: -11.68%)

BB: 1,317.81 (+0.03%) (YTD: -1.04%)