In a region heavily dependent on fluctuations in the oil market, Egypt’s non-oil sector may be the quickest to bounce back, according to Emirates NBD’s chief economist and head of research Tim Fox, who ran a comparison of the PMI and inflation rates between Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. On inflation, Egypt has been doing worse than others as the headline. The UAE saw a 0.7% month-on-month increase in January on the back of sharply higher transport costs as petrol prices were increased, while Saudi Arabia saw annual inflation falling in January. The picture turns significantly when looking at the PMIs, with Saudi and the UAE showing vulnerabilities that indicate that even as output and new orders rise, the benefit is still not feeding through into job creation. Egypt PMI, however, pulled back significantly in February with a reading of 46.7, something which is expected to continue as the country reaps the benefits of the float which has improved export prospects for the country. He concludes that Egypt is by no means out of the woods yet, but there are promising signs that the worst may be over.

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