Wait-and-see mode takes hold as businesses await clarity on regional conflict

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: JPMorgan trims Gulf growth forecast + Adnoc shelves dim sum issuance amid regional conflict

Good morning, everyone. It was a relatively calm night until we started hearing blasts in Abu Dhabi in the early hours of the morning, which the Defense Ministry confirmed were the result of a “barrage of ballistic missiles launched from Iran.”

Attacks continued across the region on Monday, but there was limited damage on the ground here in the UAE despite energy infrastructure being targeted for the first time since the conflict began. (We have more on that in this morning’s War Watch, below.)

No *physical* damage doesn’t mean there hasn’t been damage: The biggest hit the GCC has taken has been to our “safe haven” status. That has government officials, business leaders, and investment professionals alike working overtime to help shore up the sense of security residents used to take for granted, as we write in this morning’s Big Story Today.

Most businesses we’re talking to are taking a wait-and-see approach, with relatively few opting to pull up stakes and run.

MEANWHILE- The macro forecasts have also started to pour in: JPMorgan has reportedly trimmed its 2026 non-oil growth forecasts for the GCC economies by an average of 0.3 percentage points following the expansion of the US-Iran conflict over the weekend. The UAE and Bahrain are expected to feel the sharpest pinch, with the bank cutting our forecast by 0.4% and the kingdom’s by 0.5%.

JPM warns of a risk of bigger revisions ahead: “Risks are elevated across multiple fronts and will depend heavily on the conflict’s outcomes,” JPMorgan analysts said.

ALSO- Fitch Ratings sounded a reassuring note on Middle Eastern sovereign credit ratings, saying they have sufficient headroom to weather a short-term regional conflict, provided there is no further escalation, according to a Fitch Ratings report.

The ratings agency cautioned, however, that material damage to GCC energy export infrastructure — see today’s War Watch — remains the primary risk to trigger a negative outlook. It expects the conflict to last less than a month due to dwindling Iranian military capacity and domestic US aversion to a prolonged conflict.

The agency is also not too concerned about the Strait of Hormuz’s closure for the duration of the conflict, saying that the Gulf’s pipelines will allow a big portion of production to pass through.

Fitch maintains — as we do — that the largest risk is to the region’s safe-haven status, which could see long-term reputational damage, especially if an exodus of expats takes place.

^^ We look at the likelihood of that happening, the general sentiment among people we’ve spoken to, and much more in this morning’s issue, below.

Watch this space

MARKET WATCH — The UAE’s capital markets face a high-stakes reopening tomorrow after a rare two-day suspension designed to blunt the impact of escalating regional tensions. The closure was designed to take the energy out of any “panic-driven selling” after the outbreak of war and allow for a “more orderly” return to trade, Vijay Valecha, CIO at Century Financial, tells EnterpriseAM.

Look for heavy trading at the opening bell: Hamza Dweik, head of MENA trading at Saxo Bank, notes that traders will start the day tomorrow with a significant backlog of orders, which typically signals a “volatile open” where a sharp move in the first hour would not be unusual.

Still, ours are very “institutional” markets, with long-only capital serving as anchors. That means floors are holding in much of the region, as Dweik pointed to Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul, where the TASI initially dropped more than 4% at the start of trading on Sunday before quickly paring its losses. That performance, Dweik argues, points to “selective risk reduction” and elevated uncertainty rather than a total breakdown in market functioning or “indiscriminate selling.”

For the DFM, which closed at 6.5k on Friday, Valecha identifies a “strong support band” between 6.28k and 6.3k. If the index stays in that range, he believes the longer-term breakout would remain intact, though a sustained move below 6.3k could invite additional technical selling toward a psychologically important support mark at 6k.

DEBT WATCH — Adnoc is reportedly shelving its planned USD 2 bndebut dim sumbond as the widening regional war rattles credit markets, Bloomberg reports, citing people it says are in the know. The energy giant, which had been sounding out investors since October and was due to market the notes this week, has now paused the process to avoid paying a war premium and secure better borrowing costs.

The move tracks with a broader wave of global issuers delaying their debt sales. Yesterday was the first time this year that not a single European or US company, sovereign, or “supranational” bond was in the market, the business information service reported separately.

CRISIS MANAGEMENT — Emirates Global Aluminum promised its customers that deliveries will arrive within weeks following ship-loading delays driven by the war, Bloomberg reports, citing a letter it has seen. The country’s top aluminum producer told customers that it “is taking every measure to mitigate this including opening additional ports and leveraging stocks already outside the UAE.”

IN CONTEXT- The price of aluminum leapt on the London Metal Exchange yesterday with investors worried about disruptions to shipping. The region accounts for 9% of global aluminum production.

Oil watch

Brent crude jumped 9% after Iran said it closed the Strait of Hormuz last night to settle at USD 79.45. “We view the pace of the rebound in traffic through Hormuz and the extent of Iranian retaliation as key for the oil price in the next few days,” UBS analysts wrote in a note.

Middle Eastern oil producers have roughly 25 days before they run out of storage space, Bloomberg reports, citing JPMorgan forecasts. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed beyond this window, producers may have to halt output entirely because there will be nowhere left to store the oil — which would leave them with a massive logistical and technical undertaking. Once wells are capped due to a lack of storage, restarting them is neither fast nor cheap.

Gulf producers have some 343 mn barrels of onshore crude storage, enough to hold roughly 22 days of stranded production if Hormuz remains closed. At sea, tankers could absorb an additional 50 mn barrels, extending operations by only a few days.

Data point

AED 428.2 bn — that’s Abu Dhabi’s non-oil foreign trade haul in 2025, up 39.9% y-o-y, according to Abu Dhabi Customs and Statistics Center data. The pace was set early, with 1H 2025 trade having already reached AED 195.4 bn, up 34.7% y-o-y.

December sealed the year: Trade hit AED 45.4 bn (+52%) in December, with exports (including re-exports) at AED 27.6 bn (+64%) and imports at AED 17.7 bn (+37%). Exports alone jumped 73% to AED 20.5 bn during the month, while re-exports rose 41% to AED 7.1 bn, delivering a AED 9.9 bn trade surplus. That’s narrowed from an AED 25.6 bn surplus in 2024.

Follow the flows: Switzerland led export markets in December with AED 11.9 bn in exports, ahead of India (which saw some AED 2.3 bn in exports) and Saudi Arabia (AED 1.9 bn). The emirate imported the most from the US (AED 2.8 bn), narrowly ahead of China (AED 2.6 bn). The export mix remains distinctly Abu Dhabi — with pearls, precious stones, and metals dominating at AED 14.1 bn.

Zooming out: At the federal level, the UAE’s non-oil foreign trade topped USD 1 tn (AED 3.8 tn) in 2025, up 26% y-o-y — reaching 2031 targets five years ahead of schedule. That trajectory is being underpinned by the CEPA drive, with 35 agreements signed and 14 already in force, laying the groundwork for the next phase of expansion.

WEATHER- It’s another cloudy, warm day, with temperatures peaking at 33°C in Dubai and 34°C in Abu Dhabi, before cooling to 22°C in the former and 20°C in the capital.

The big story abroad

The world’s front pages are all about the widening regional war for the third day running. Two updates are topping headlines this morning:

#1- US President Donald Trump vowed to do “whatever it takes” in Iran, saying that US-Israeli attacks on the country could go on for over a month.

#2- Iran officially closed the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to fire at any ship trying to pass through — effectively halting 20% of the world’s oil supply.

THE HOMETOWN ANGLE- We dive into what this all means for us at home in the news well, below.

Businesses are in “wait-and-see” mode

The initial wave of panic over the weekend has given way to a measure of calm reflection for most people here in the UAE, as the frequency of loud explosions and videos of missiles and debris hitting buildings tapered off somewhat on Monday, day three of the US-Israel-Iran war.

“The idea of safety and stability has declined rapidly due to the increased number of attacks. And of course, the images circulating have become a source of fear, especially for expats and foreigners in the GCC,” MENA economist Hamzeh Al Gaaod tells us. “I believe this will have the biggest negative impact on economies in the future. But for now, the impact will be on aviation, retail, transportation, tourism, and energy.”

Businesses have shifted from an initial state of shock to a wait-and-see stance, especially after the government released figures showing that defense forces continue to sweep the sky of the vast majority of inbound missiles and drones, Amandeep Ahuja, head of research at business consulting and advisory firm Confluence Consultants, told EnterpriseAM.

“Of all the glamorous things that we often see in the region, its defense capabilities haven’t been highlighted to the extent that businesses would be aware that we even have an air force or defense system,” Ahuja said. The government’s response and the success of its air defense system have helped reassure many of those who were initially in panic mode, she added.

Despite reports of businesses pulling out their UAE staff and drawing up contingency plans, Ahuja believes most businesses in the Emirates are thinking long-term. “For businesses, it’s a long, drawn-out process to expand into this region,” so leaving is not a decision that would be taken lightly, she said.

That sentiment was echoed by KKR, where a spokesperson told the press: “We take a long-term approach to investing and regularly assess geopolitical and macroeconomic developments as part of our process.” The firm says it will be “monitoring” developments closely and adjusting its approach as needed.

A top business advisor we spoke with sees little chance of inbound corporate partnerships slowing down. “Inbound investors might price risk in or insure differently, but they’ll still want to benefit from the size of the opportunity that’s up for grabs here,” said the source, who regularly advises top companies in the UAE on risk, corporate crises, and law enforcement issues.

Others who have recently relocated stand firm on their plans for now: “I have great faith in [the UAE’s] commitment to growth and safety, particularly given its rapid coordinated response over the weekend, and feel as confident as ever building our future here,” Philip Khinda, managing partner at Khinda Advisory, a regulatory consulting firm and board advisor, told EnterpriseAM.

The US is calling on its citizens to leave the country: The US State Department has urged Americans to depart over a dozen countries in the region, including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, and Oman, citing “serious safety risks.” But with airspace closed and flights restricted, it may prove difficult for Americans to leave the region.

A sense of “normal” on social media

Working overtime to project a sense of normalcy: From business leaders and senior government officials to influencers and everyday residents, folks in the Emirates have taken to social media to project a sense of calm. Many are using social platforms in what they’re positioning as bids to set the record straight amid a proliferation of misinformation. Dozens of expats are on social media showing themselves out in sunny Dubai and Abu Dhabi, assuring those who are watching from afar that they feel as safe as ever — and showing gratitude to the government for its ability to keep business going.

It’s not just expats: Official Emirati media pages and Emirati leaders are working overtime to reassure people that it’s safe to be out and about. The Dubai Media Office last night posted a video (watch, runtime: 00:28) showing President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Defense Minister Hamdan bin Zayed walking around Dubai Mall.

On the retail front

Supermarkets and many retail outlets remained open over the past few days, though some have temporarily closed, including Gucci, Reuters reports. Chalhoub Group, which operates brands including Versace, Jimmy Choo, and Sephora across the region, closed its stores in Bahrain temporarily but kept branches in the UAE and Saudi Arabia open with limited staff. Apple’s stores are also closed until Wednesday in one mall and Thursday in another, according to Google Maps.

Still, the wait-and-see approach dominates: Primark, which is set to open its first store in Dubai at the end of the month, says it’s “monitoring” the situation closely.

What about talent?

Ahuja says most residents she’s spoken with have no plans to pick up and run, with many feeling that the general safety, as well as the openness and proactiveness with which the government has dealt with the danger in the past few days, still makes the UAE a better choice — including individuals from the UK. “People are very much settled here,” Ahuja said, noting that if the strikes were to end soon, it’s likely that most people would much rather go back to their lives in the Emirates than evacuate.

SOUND SMART- Many expats who have moved here in recent years have left their home countries due to a sense of instability, whether economic or policy-related. Others fled wars in their respective countries, like Palestinians and Ukrainians, and thus are somewhat more accustomed to the sense of precarity that has affected the Gulf over the weekend.

Where the war might play a role: Folks who are contemplating a move to the UAE who haven’t yet committed. They could understandably be more reluctant, Ahuja said.

Weeding out the hangers-on? From a glass-half-full perspective, more than a few people we’ve spoken to in the past few days have told us they think the conflict could weed out people who were here on a transient basis, leaving better prospects for folks who are committed to the country long-term and appreciate the scale of the potential here.

Still, reports of high-net-worth individuals hauling out via Saudi Arabia and Oman do suggest that the initial wave of panic was real — but those who have chosen to stay have felt better about their decisions as the situation seemed to calm down over the past two days.

Historical precedent helps

The power of a strong, consistent policy response: While the “safe haven” image the UAE has cultivated for years might have taken a hit, many we spoke with are drawing comparisons to Covid-19 and the government’s response at the time. The feeling that business continued to trudge along, despite people being in lockdown — similar to current events — and the way that the country bounced back after the crisis was over, offers some reassurance.

“Historically, the UAE has been brilliant at converting every crisis into an [opening]. I expect the same will happen,” Viswanathan Shankar, a former top executive at Standard Chartered and founder of Gateway Partners, told Bloomberg.

Are rental prices going to go up?

WATCH THIS SPACE- One data point we’re keeping our eyes on: What the conflict does to the property market, where the residential side of the equation was already on an early path of normalization. Commercial property — which has been red-hot for a while now amid a major Grade A supply shortage — has seen prices soar 21.9% y-o-y in 3Q 2025, according to government data.

One scenario playing out in our heads: Some we have spoken with suggested they’re thinking twice about buying property — a sentiment that could, we think, put upward pressure on rents.

Data is the new oil — and it’s under fire too

If you’ve had a hard time opening a favorite website, placing an order online, or getting into your bank accounts the past couple of days, odds are you can thank the ongoing regional war — two major regional data centers experienced outages, with one appearing to have come after it was hit by falling debris from a drone or missile interception.

Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank confirmed yesterday that “regional IT disruptions” were behind problems clients were having accessing its mobile banking and contact center services. We were also impacted: EnterpriseAM.com is one of the many services hosted on AWS out of the UAE, and our site was down for more than a day after the incident, forcing us to use a backup in another jurisdiction.

Why it matters: Data center outages in the UAE and Bahrain were a wake-up call for the digital economy, exposing centralized data centers as a critical infrastructure vulnerability that businesses across MENA had previously ignored. The attacks on data centers will also challenge the Gulf’s image as a secure hub for AI infrastructure — and could yet force a reassessment of physical security risks amid multi-bn-USD data center investments in both the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

What happened?

An Amazon Web Services (AWS) data center in Dubai caught fire on Sunday morning after being struck by unspecified “objects,” prompting the local fire department to cut power to the facility, including backup generators. The incident occurred on the same day Iranian ballistic missiles struck targets across the GCC, including the UAE and Bahrain.

Is it really that simple? AWS services are designed to withstand a single data center failure, but the outage spread to a second group of data centers, triggering a double failure that bypassed standard redundancies.

At the same time, a power failure in Bahrain knocked out a single zone, taking other racks offline.

As of Monday night, we understand that full restoration of the two damaged data center zones will take at least another day, with both physical cooling and power systems undergoing repairs.

Who else was affected?

AWS, businesses, and banks love to talk about their infrastructure when they ink contracts, flooding journalists’ inboxes with press releases. (They’re not alone — we’re looking at you, Microsoft.) They’re quieter about details of setups, citing infrastructure security concerns.

Still, we know the division of Amazon is a partner of choice for multiple banks, financial institutions, digital platforms, local government agencies, and logistics companies across the region, with many relying heavily on key AWS services. The outage in Dubai and Bahrain is causing many to report that key services are offline, while others are seeing service quality degraded.

Why it matters

Data centers and their supporting energy infrastructure are now targets of war on par with oil and gas facilities. Taking them down is a fast way to disrupt government services, businesses, and financial institutions, raising the cost of the conflict — something Tehran seems keen to do.

Hindsight is 20/20: Companies should now be acutely aware of the importance of multi-region deployment of their apps and services to avoid impact in the future, Engagesoft CTO Tareq Tahboub tells us. Case in point: Enterprises and government entities that have backup services on AWS infrastructure in multiple regions were unaffected by the outage.

The data center landscape is highly centralized, Saudi semiconductor design company Rimal’s CEO Houssam Salem tells EnterpriseAM, adding that a handful of companies control most on-the-ground capacity.

Regulations (and quiet pressure) on data sovereignty help keep things that way. Governments across the region have a host of reasons for wanting data about their country (and their residents and businesses) to stay within borders. In our corner of the world, the big issue of the day isn’t “data privacy” as it is in the west, but where data lives and who has access.

Simple economics also mean that clusters of data centers make good sense — until they don’t. The economics of hyperscale AI “push states toward establishing AI hubs which concentrate massive power supply, cooling capacity, and fiber connectivity co-located in a single campus to maximize efficiency,” Rihla Research & Advisory CEO Jesse Marks said in a note. While this is more economically viable, a single strike can take down an entire AI stack, as is evident by the AWS outage, calling into question how builders of AI clusters currently under construction will help harden infrastructure and design fallbacks.

Salem argues this centralization is going to change in the near future as more data centers come online across the region. Gulf states could also resort to embedding frameworks in their existing contracts with hyperscalers, allowing critical systems to be shifted to secure facilities in allied countries within minutes of a disruption, Marks suggests.

The context

Considering security risks to AI infrastructure is now a pressing priority if the UAE and Saudi want to become global hubs of compute. The GCC data center market is projected to hit USD 9.5 bn by 2030, buoyed by sovereign capital flows into hyperscale, AI-native infrastructure by the UAE’s G42 and Saudi PIF’s Humain. Humain’s data centers — currently under construction — were set to come online this year.

Regional stability is among the top selling points for those looking to attract AI investment to our part of the world. “The challenge now is to ensure that the digital infrastructure [countries in MENA] are building commands the same strategic protection they have long afforded their energy assets,” says Marks.

Airspace opens up as frequency of attacks dips on day three of US-Israel-Iran war

After three days of Iranian attacks on the UAE — and the wider region — we have a handful of more positive updates, with the regional airspace opening up slightly after being completely closed off since Saturday and minimal damage reported in the UAE yesterday. The Emirates have so far absorbed the worst of Iran’s attacks, which were triggered by a US-Israeli assault on the weekend.

Drone and missile interception operations continued, with the Defense Ministry saying it fought off nine ballistic missiles, six cruise missiles, and 148 drones yesterday alone. That is a much slower tempo than the 165 ballistic missiles and 541 Iranian drones the UAE was subject to on the first two days of the war.

Among the incidents reported were one of debris falling somewhere in the Al Hamra Village area in Ras Al Khaimah, with no injuries or casualties resulting from the incident, and another of a fire from a drone attack on the Musaffah fuel tank terminal, which didn’t impact operations or result in any injuries. In the early hours of the morning, the Defense Ministry said that forces intercepted a salvo of ballistic missiles from Iran.

Where do things stand this morning? Here’s what we know as of dispatch time:

Two Iranian drones targeted Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery, halting operations after interception debris fell near the facility, causing a fire;
QatarEnergy has stopped producing LNG after an Iranian drone hit Ras Laffan;
The US embassies in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait were struck by drones, though no casualties were reported;
Iran officially announced it has closed the Strait of Hormuz;
The US says its “hardest hits are yet to come,” promising that the “next phase will be even more punishing on Iran than it is right now.”

On aviation

Airspace has opened up for limited flights, with Emirates, Flydubai, and E tihad Airways all saying they have allowed limited flight operations. Etihad clarified that these operations are for “repatriation, cargo, and repositioning” purposes. All other flights are suspended until at least midday tomorrow, and the airlines have advised against going to the airport without receiving a flight update or notification.

Etihad flights yesterday headed to Amsterdam, London, Moscow, Mumbai, Delhi, Islamabad, Kochi, Bengaluru, Riyadh, Dammam, Jeddah, Muscat, and Cairo, according to Flightradar24 data picked up by Gulf News.

LATEST UPDATE- Two Etihad flights bound for Abu Dhabi were diverted to Muscat in the early hours of the morning, according to FlightRadar24. Meanwhile, a Dubai-bound Emirates flight headed back to Mumbai.

On trade and logistics

Ins. cover pulled amid uncertainty in the Strait: As we await clarity on what will happen to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical corridor through which 20-30% of the world’s oil passes, ins. providers are already pulling cover from the Gulf. Gard, Skuld, NorthStandard, the London P&I Club, and the American Club all issued cancellation notices, effective 5 March, that switch off war risk cover for ships trading in Iranian, Gulf, and adjacent waters.

The market is shifting toward negotiated pricing, with Skuld flagging a buyback option for owners who still want to trade in the zone, and brokers flagging negotiated coverage at higher rates. Prices could jump by as much as 50%.

Why it matters: At least three tankers have already been damaged, and a seafarer has been killed — that is why ins. now decides whether Gulf trade moves or freezes. Iran is warning that navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is shut, and owners and traders have already paused crude, product, and LNG lifts. Ship tracking shows at least 150 tankers anchored beyond the Strait, with more holding on the other side of the chokepoint.

Pricing blindness: S&P Global Platts has also been forced to review its pricing mechanisms for Middle East crude. The agency has temporarily suspended its assessment process for refined products that require transit through the Strait, as there are no longer valid bids or offers to track. Without a functioning pricing mechanism from Platts, regional operators lose the ability to hedge risk or settle long-term contracts based on transparent market data.

On diplomacy

Foreign ministers and UAE officials also ramped up diplomatic efforts as they scrambled to end the conflict.

The Gulf is looking to shore up its defense systems after a busy few days, with Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto reportedly saying in a hearing that requests have included SAMP/T, a Franco-Italian battery that can track targets ‌and ⁠intercept 10 at the same time, and that there is an “urgent need” for air defense and anti-drone capabilities, without specifying which countries have reached out.

France has already pledged to bolster its “regional partners” defense, Reuters quoted Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot as saying following a chaired crisis meeting at the Foreign Ministry in Paris.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, on the other hand, wants to position himself as a mediator between the Gulf and Iran, telling President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan that he will share with Tehran the UAE’s formal objections to Iran’s strikes on Emirati territory, Reuters reports, citing a phone discussion held yesterday. The UAE president maintained that the strikes were unjustified, reiterating that the UAE was not used as a launchpad for the US-Israeli offensive against Iran. Both leaders emphasized the urgency of an immediate ceasefire.

And Ukraine has stepped in with a quid pro quo. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy offered to deploy Ukrainian drone-defense specialists to the region to help intercept Iranian drone strikes in the Middle East, in exchange for Middle East leaders convincing Putin to agree to a month-long truce with Ukraine, the president told Bloomberg.

Diplomatic efforts don’t end here: Abu Dhabi and Doha are reportedly privately lobbying for a swift conclusion to the US-led offensive, Bloomberg separately reports, citing people familiar with the matter. The Gulf nations are looking to build a wide coalition to quickly end the conflict and prevent escalations.

UAE, Ecuador seal CEPA agreement, with USD 3 bn project pipeline in sight

The UAE and Ecuador formalized plans for deeper economic cooperation. The two countries signed off on their trade and economic partnership agreement, also known as a CEPA, and signaled more than USD 3 bn in projects under discussion, state news agency Wam reports (here and here).

The agreement will lower tariffs and ease trade barriers across priority sectors, including clean energy, advanced technology, mining, logistics, and agriculture. Meanwhile, the UAE’s Investment Ministry and Ecuador’s Production, Foreign Trade, Investments, and Fisheries Ministry agreed to explore potential joint investments.

ALSO- Edge Group signed an MoU with Ecuador’s National Defense Ministry under a USD 250 mn program focused on surveillance systems and border protection infrastructure. A separate anti-corruption cooperation agreement was formalized between the UAE’s Accountability Authority and Ecuador’s Council for Citizen Participation and Social Control.

BACKGROUND- Non-oil trade between the two countries reached roughly USD 373.6 mn in 2025. Ecuador is the fourth Latin American country to sign a CEPA with the UAE, alongside Costa Rica, Chile, and Colombia. Negotiations with Peru are still ongoing.

Global investors turn sour on EMs after record-setting rally amid regional war

Emerging market currencies and stocks have taken a beating as the war in the region prompts a sell-off of riskier assets, snapping a re cord-setting rally that had taken hold amid fears of an AI bubble in the West and a desire to diversify from the USD, Bloomberg reports. Haven trades are back in charge, with investors rotating toward Treasuries, the CHF, and investment-grade emerging markets, excluding the Gulf, as we wrote yesterday.

By the numbers: A gauge of developing-nation FX fell 0.9% after touching all-time highs last week as the USD strengthened. Meanwhile, EM stocks dropped as much as 1.9% — the steepest slide in a month, led by tech and consumer discretionary names. Pakistan’s market plunged enough to trigger an hour-long halt, marking its biggest drop on record.

Local-currency bonds of net oil-importing countries saw yields rise as Brent crude jumped 8.6% to around USD 79 / bbl — its highest in more than a year — while gold rallied alongside the greenback.

JPMorgan also slashed its overweight recommendation on EM currencies and local bonds by half on the back of the sell-off.

Central banks moved fast: Indonesia and India intervened in FX markets, while Turkish lenders reportedly sold about USD 5 bn to steady the TRY. “There’s panic selling at first, then normalization,” said Osmanli Portfoy CEO Mehmet Gerz.

The bigger risk is inflation: Barclays warned that sustained higher oil prices could delay rate cuts across easing-cycle economies like South Africa, Poland, Turkey, and Hungary. Bloomberg Economics sees crude potentially climbing as high as USD 108 / bbl if tensions intensify.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asia-Pacific markets opened in the red this morning as the escalating regional war enters its fourth day. South Korea’s Kospi is down over 3.6% — despite defensive sector gains — and Japan’s Nikkei is down 2.2%. Over on Wall Street, indices are set to open in the red today, with futures down across the board.

ADX	10,454	-1.3% (YTD: +4.6%)
DFM	6,504	-1.8% (YTD: +7.6%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	5,341	-3.1% (YTD: +9.3%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	3.7% o/n	3.7% 1 yr
TASI	10,489	+0.1% (YTD: 0.0%)
EGX30	47,692	-0.6% (YTD: +14.0%)
S&P 500	6,882	0.0% (YTD: +0.5%)
FTSE 100	10,780	-1.2% (YTD: +8.5%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,987	-2.5% (YTD: +3.4%)
Brent crude	USD 77.76	+6.7%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.96	+3.5%
Gold	USD 5,312	+1.2%
BTC	USD 69,349	+6.3% (YTD: -20.8%)
Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF	AED 3.71	-1.1% (YTD: -1.1%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	153.89	+0.1% (YTD: +1.3%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	21.42	+8.0% (YTD: +55.0%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The ADX fell 1.3% on Friday on turnover of AED 3 bn. The index is up 6.9% YTD.

In the green: BHM Capital Financial Services (+14.7%), Sukoon Takaful (+4.2%), and Emirates Reem Investments Company (+3.2%).

In the red: International Financial Advisors Holding Company (-7.9%), Agility The Public Warehousing Company (-6.1%), and Emirates NBD (-5.2%).

Over on the DFM, the index fell 1.8% on turnover of AED 2.1 bn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was down 3.1%.

CALENDAR

MARCH

19-20 March (Thursday-Friday): Eid Al Fitr, public holiday.

31 March - 2 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Arab Media Summit, Dubai.

26-28 March (Thursday-Saturday): Social Capital Conference, Dubai.

28-29 March (Saturday-Sunday): Emirates International Congress on AI & Visionary Leadership in Transforming Healthcare, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

30 March - 2 April (Monday-Thursday): IAAPA Middle East Exhibition and Conference, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

31 March-2 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Investopia, Abu Dhabi.

APRIL

6-9 April (Monday-Thursday): Dubai AI Week, Dubai.

7-8 April (Tuesday-Wednesday): Dubai AI Festival, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

7-9 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Health Summit, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

7-9 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Middle East Energy, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

13-15 April (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

13-15 April (Monday-Wednesday): The International Glass Manufacturing Show, Dubai.

14-16 April: (Tuesday-Thursday): International Property Show, Sheikh Zayed Rd, Dubai.

21-23 April (Tuesday-Thursday): UITP Public Transport Summit, Dubai.

28-29 April (Tuesday-Wednesday): Innovation Summit Middle East & Africa, Abu Dhabi.

29 April (Wednesday): Digital Transformation Summit, Sofitel, Abu Dhabi.

MAY

4-8 May (Wednesday-Saturday): Make It in the Emirates, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

8-24 May (Saturday-Sunday): Dubai Esports and Games Festival, Dubai.

11-15 May (Monday-Friday): Dubai Future Finance Week, Dubai.

11-13 May (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

12-14 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Airport Show, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

19-20 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Capital Market Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

19-22 May (Tuesday-Friday): Abu Dhabi Water and Energy Week, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

20-21 May (Wednesday-Thursday): Arab Competition Forum, Dubai.

JUNE

3-4 June (Wednesday-Thursday): Annual MENA Investor Conference, Ritz-Carlton DIFC, Dubai.

15 June - 15 September (Monday-Thursday): Dubai Mallathon, Dubai.

JULY

31 July (Friday): Large businesses achieving annual revenues equal to or above AED 50 mn must appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation.

Signposted to happen sometime in October 2026:

Abu Dhabi Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

NOVEMBER

9-10 November (Monday-Tuesday): Annual government meetings, Abu Dhabi.

OCTOBER

4-10 October (Sunday-Saturday): World Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

NOVEMBER

10-12 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Dubai International Electric Vehicle Exhibition & Conference, Dubai World Trade Center.

DECEMBER

2-4 December (Wednesday-Friday): UN Water Conference, UAE.

Signposted to happen in 2026:

Investopia Global Talks, Tashkent.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

1 January: Deadline for large businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1Q 2027: Completion of the first phase of Hassyan seawater desalination project;

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): World Governments Summit.
31 March: Small businesses with annual revenues of less than AED 50 mn are obliged to contract with an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
31 March: Government entities are required to appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
1 July: Deadline for small businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1 October: Deadline for governments to implement e-invoicing;
Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2028:

Artificial Intelligence Summit.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2029:

Sibos 2029 organized by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Dubai;
The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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