Nobody knows how long the war in Iran will last. That has UAE-based businesses in “wait-and-see” mode.

The initial wave of panic over the weekend has given way to a measure of calm reflection for most people here in the UAE, as the frequency of loud explosions and videos of missiles and debris hitting buildings tapered off somewhat on Monday, day three of the US-Israel-Iran war.

“The idea of safety and stability has declined rapidly due to the increased number of attacks. And of course, the images circulating have become a source of fear, especially for expats and foreigners in the GCC,” MENA economist Hamzeh Al Gaaod tells us. “I believe this will have the biggest negative impact on economies in the future. But for now, the impact will be on aviation, retail, transportation, tourism, and energy.”

Businesses have shifted from an initial state of shock to a wait-and-see stance, especially after the government released figures showing that defense forces continue to sweep the sky of the vast majority of inbound missiles and drones, Amandeep Ahuja, head of research at business consulting and advisory firm Confluence Consultants, told EnterpriseAM.

“Of all the glamorous things that we often see in the region, its defense capabilities haven’t been highlighted to the extent that businesses would be aware that we even have an air force or defense system,” Ahuja said. The government’s response and the success of its air defense system have helped reassure many of those who were initially in panic mode, she added.

Despite reports of businesses pulling out their UAE staff and drawing up contingency plans, Ahuja believes most businesses in the Emirates are thinking long-term. “For businesses, it’s a long, drawn-out process to expand into this region,” so leaving is not a decision that would be taken lightly, she said.

That sentiment was echoed by KKR, where a spokesperson told the press: “We take a long-term approach to investing and regularly assess geopolitical and macroeconomic developments as part of our process.” The firm says it will be “monitoring” developments closely and adjusting its approach as needed.

A top business advisor we spoke with sees little chance of inbound corporate partnerships slowing down. “Inbound investors might price risk in or insure differently, but they’ll still want to benefit from the size of the opportunity that’s up for grabs here,” said the source, who regularly advises top companies in the UAE on risk, corporate crises, and law enforcement issues.

Others who have recently relocated stand firm on their plans for now: “I have great faith in [the UAE’s] commitment to growth and safety, particularly given its rapid coordinated response over the weekend, and feel as confident as ever building our future here,” Philip Khinda, managing partner at Khinda Advisory, a regulatory consulting firm and board advisor, told EnterpriseAM.

The US is calling on its citizens to leave the country: The US State Department has urged Americans to depart over a dozen countries in the region, including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, and Oman, citing “serious safety risks.” But with airspace closed and flights restricted, it may prove difficult for Americans to leave the region.

A sense of “normal” on social media

Working overtime to project a sense of normalcy: From business leaders and senior government officials to influencers and everyday residents, folks in the Emirates have taken to social media to project a sense of calm. Many are using social platforms in what they’re positioning as bids to set the record straight amid a proliferation of misinformation. Dozens of expats are on social media showing themselves out in sunny Dubai and Abu Dhabi, assuring those who are watching from afar that they feel as safe as ever — and showing gratitude to the government for its ability to keep business going.

It’s not just expats: Official Emirati media pages and Emirati leaders are working overtime to reassure people that it’s safe to be out and about. The Dubai Media Office last night posted a video (watch, runtime: 00:28) showing President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Defense Minister Hamdan bin Zayed walking around Dubai Mall.

On the retail front

Supermarkets and many retail outlets remained open over the past few days, though some have temporarily closed, including Gucci, Reuters reports. Chalhoub Group, which operates brands including Versace, Jimmy Choo, and Sephora across the region, closed its stores in Bahrain temporarily but kept branches in the UAE and Saudi Arabia open with limited staff. Apple’s stores are also closed until Wednesday in one mall and Thursday in another, according to Google Maps.

Still, the wait-and-see approach dominates: Primark, which is set to open its first store in Dubai at the end of the month, says it’s “monitoring” the situation closely.

What about talent?

Ahuja says most residents she’s spoken with have no plans to pick up and run, with many feeling that the general safety, as well as the openness and proactiveness with which the government has dealt with the danger in the past few days, still makes the UAE a better choice — including individuals from the UK. “People are very much settled here,” Ahuja said, noting that if the strikes were to end soon, it’s likely that most people would much rather go back to their lives in the Emirates than evacuate.

SOUND SMART- Many expats who have moved here in recent years have left their home countries due to a sense of instability, whether economic or policy-related. Others fled wars in their respective countries, like Palestinians and Ukrainians, and thus are somewhat more accustomed to the sense of precarity that has affected the Gulf over the weekend.

Where the war might play a role: Folks who are contemplating a move to the UAE who haven’t yet committed. They could understandably be more reluctant, Ahuja said.

Weeding out the hangers-on? From a glass-half-full perspective, more than a few people we’ve spoken to in the past few days have told us they think the conflict could weed out people who were here on a transient basis, leaving better prospects for folks who are committed to the country long-term and appreciate the scale of the potential here.

Still, reports of high-net-worth individuals hauling out via Saudi Arabia and Oman do suggest that the initial wave of panic was real — but those who have chosen to stay have felt better about their decisions as the situation seemed to calm down over the past two days.

Historical precedent helps

The power of a strong, consistent policy response: While the “safe haven” image the UAE has cultivated for years might have taken a hit, many we spoke with are drawing comparisons to Covid-19 and the government’s response at the time. The feeling that business continued to trudge along, despite people being in lockdown — similar to current events — and the way that the country bounced back after the crisis was over, offers some reassurance.

“Historically, the UAE has been brilliant at converting every crisis into an [opening]. I expect the same will happen,” Viswanathan Shankar, a former top executive at Standard Chartered and founder of Gateway Partners, told Bloomberg.

Are rental prices going to go up?

WATCH THIS SPACE- One data point we’re keeping our eyes on: What the conflict does to the property market, where the residential side of the equation was already on an early path of normalization. Commercial property — which has been red-hot for a while now amid a major Grade A supply shortage — has seen prices soar 21.9% y-o-y in 3Q 2025, according to government data.

One scenario playing out in our heads: Some we have spoken with suggested they’re thinking twice about buying property — a sentiment that could, we think, put upward pressure on rents.