After three days of Iranian attacks on the UAE — and the wider region — we have a handful of more positive updates, with the regional airspace opening up slightly after being completely closed off since Saturday and minimal damage reported in the UAE yesterday. The Emirates have so far absorbed the worst of Iran’s attacks, which were triggered by a US-Israeli assault on the weekend.

Drone and missile interception operations continued, with the Defense Ministry saying it fought off nine ballistic missiles, six cruise missiles, and 148 drones yesterday alone. That is a much slower tempo than the 165 ballistic missiles and 541 Iranian drones the UAE was subject to on the first two days of the war.

Among the incidents reported were one of debris falling somewhere in the Al Hamra Village area in Ras Al Khaimah, with no injuries or casualties resulting from the incident, and another of a fire from a drone attack on the Musaffah fuel tank terminal, which didn’t impact operations or result in any injuries. In the early hours of the morning, the Defense Ministry said that forces intercepted a salvo of ballistic missiles from Iran.

Where do things stand this morning? Here’s what we know as of dispatch time:

  • Two Iranian drones targeted Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery, halting operations after interception debris fell near the facility, causing a fire;
  • QatarEnergy has stopped producing LNG after an Iranian drone hit Ras Laffan;
  • The US embassies in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait were struck by drones, though no casualties were reported;
  • Iran officially announced it has closed the Strait of Hormuz;
  • The US says its “hardest hits are yet to come,” promising that the “next phase will be even more punishing on Iran than it is right now.”

On aviation

Airspace has opened up for limited flights, with Emirates, Flydubai, and Etihad Airways all saying they have allowed limited flight operations. Etihad clarified that these operations are for “repatriation, cargo, and repositioning” purposes. All other flights are suspended until at least midday tomorrow, and the airlines have advised against going to the airport without receiving a flight update or notification.

Etihad flights yesterday headed to Amsterdam, London, Moscow, Mumbai, Delhi, Islamabad, Kochi, Bengaluru, Riyadh, Dammam, Jeddah, Muscat, and Cairo, according to Flightradar24 data picked up by Gulf News.

LATEST UPDATE- Two Etihad flights bound for Abu Dhabi were diverted to Muscat in the early hours of the morning, according to FlightRadar24. Meanwhile, a Dubai-bound Emirates flight headed back to Mumbai.

On trade and logistics

Ins. cover pulled amid uncertainty in the Strait: As we await clarity on what will happen to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical corridor through which 20-30% of the world’s oil passes, ins. providers are already pulling cover from the Gulf. Gard, Skuld, NorthStandard, the London P&I Club, and the American Club all issued cancellation notices, effective 5 March, that switch off war risk cover for ships trading in Iranian, Gulf, and adjacent waters.

The market is shifting toward negotiated pricing, with Skuld flagging a buyback option for owners who still want to trade in the zone, and brokers flagging negotiated coverage at higher rates. Prices could jump by as much as 50%.

Why it matters: At least three tankers have already been damaged, and a seafarer has been killed — that is why ins. now decides whether Gulf trade moves or freezes. Iran is warning that navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is shut, and owners and traders have already paused crude, product, and LNG lifts. Ship tracking shows at least 150 tankers anchored beyond the Strait, with more holding on the other side of the chokepoint.

Pricing blindness: S&P Global Platts has also been forced to review its pricing mechanisms for Middle East crude. The agency has temporarily suspended its assessment process for refined products that require transit through the Strait, as there are no longer valid bids or offers to track. Without a functioning pricing mechanism from Platts, regional operators lose the ability to hedge risk or settle long-term contracts based on transparent market data.

On diplomacy

Foreign ministers and UAE officials also ramped up diplomatic efforts as they scrambled to end the conflict.

The Gulf is looking to shore up its defense systems after a busy few days, with Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto reportedly saying in a hearing that requests have included SAMP/T, a Franco-Italian battery that can track targets ‌and ⁠intercept 10 at the same time, and that there is an “urgent need” for air defense and anti-drone capabilities, without specifying which countries have reached out.

France has already pledged to bolster its “regional partners” defense, Reuters quoted Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot as saying following a chaired crisis meeting at the Foreign Ministry in Paris.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, on the other hand, wants to position himself as a mediator between the Gulf and Iran, telling President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan that he will share with Tehran the UAE’s formal objections to Iran’s strikes on Emirati territory, Reuters reports, citing a phone discussion held yesterday. The UAE president maintained that the strikes were unjustified, reiterating that the UAE was not used as a launchpad for the US-Israeli offensive against Iran. Both leaders emphasized the urgency of an immediate ceasefire.

And Ukraine has stepped in with a quid pro quo. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy offered to deploy Ukrainian drone-defense specialists to the region to help intercept Iranian drone strikes in the Middle East, in exchange for Middle East leaders convincing Putin to agree to a month-long truce with Ukraine, the president told Bloomberg.

Diplomatic efforts don’t end here: Abu Dhabi and Doha are reportedly privately lobbying for a swift conclusion to the US-led offensive, Bloomberg separately reports, citing people familiar with the matter. The Gulf nations are looking to build a wide coalition to quickly end the conflict and prevent escalations.

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