Good morning, friends, and happy FRIDAY. We’re giving ourselves a big pat on the back for making it through this rollercoaster of a week, and we hope you’re doing the same and are taking a breather this weekend. With an Opec exit, bns of AED in new funds and national strategies announced to mitigate the impact of the war, and earnings season in full swing, it’s been a lot, to say the least.
We don’t expect things to quiet down next week. Make It in The Emirates is kicking off on Monday, and it’s set to be its largest edition yet — and the largest event to take place in the UAE since the war started.
The government is also teeing up key announcements for the event, including a list of 150 key commodities that will fall within the new National Supply Chain Resilience Program’s scope. Those are set to include food, meds, and industrial goods.
Things are not looking great on the ceasefire front. The US yesterday said it was looking into a potential attack on Iran to pressure it as ongoing negotiations stall, and Iran hit back with threat of “long and painful” strikes on the US if it renewed its attacks on the country. Meanwhile, attacks continued in the South of Lebanon despite the ceasefire, with at least 9 killed and 23 wounded yesterday alone.
The UAE also banned its citizens from traveling to Lebanon, Iran, and Iraq, citing the “current developments in the region” and requested those who are there to coordinate their immediate return, state news agency Wam reports.
Local markets took a nosedive on the renewed hostilities — with the ADX down 1.2% and the DFM falling 1.6%. The two exchanges had been rebounding most of this week, with the ADX rising yesterday on news of the UAE’s exit from Opec.
Today’s big story is — refreshingly — a package of regulatory updates from DIFC and ADGM. DIFC is proposing amendments that could open up its Prescribed Company structure — akin to popular offshore structures — to more people, while ADGM issued its crypto staking framework and is proposing new, tightened AML rules for crypto and for engaging with high-risk jurisdictions and individuals.
We also have a slew of earnings for you, with Mashreq and Ghitha having a strong quarter despite regional headwinds, and NMDC and Borouge seeing a bigger impact.
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WEATHER- It’s another beach weekend (likely one of the last before sitting by the beach feels like a test of human endurance). Dubai will see a high of 38°C today and tomorrow, before rising to 39°C on Sunday. Meanwhile, the mercury in Abu Dhabi will rise to 36-37°C before reaching a high of 39°C on Sunday. Both emirates will see lows ranging between 26-28°C throughout the weekend.
PSA
We’re paying a little more at the pump this month: The UAE’s Fuel Price Committee raised the price of Special 95 and Super 98 by around 8%, with Special 95 now priced at AED 3.55 per liter, and Super 98 priced at AED 3.66, state news agency Wam reports. E-Plus 91, meanwhile, is up 9% to AED 3.48.
But there’s good news for logistics + transport firms: The price of diesel was kept unchanged at AED 4.69.
REMEMBER- Last month, fuel prices saw their steepest hike in years, and the impact has been making its way throughout the economy. Diesel in particular contributed to an increase in the cost of moving goods, causing rises in freight rates and delivery pricing, with sectors like transport, logistics, construction, and delivery services particularly exposed. Analysts we spoke to said the full impact will only reveal itself in phases, as businesses start to absorb rising prices before eventually passing them on to consumers.
SOUND SMART- The increase this month was largely expected, with no end in sight yet for the regional war. While the ceasefire has helped bring down global oil prices slightly, Brent rose sharply to USD 126 / bbl — a four-year high — amid concerns around further escalation of the regional conflict and an extended blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Tourists can now get a digital banking account as soon as they land in the UAE through an initiative launched by Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB), the Central Bank of the UAE, and the Federal Authority for Identity, Citizenship, Customs and Port Security (ICP). The account would allow them a digital debit card, according to a statement (pdf).
Watch this space
TECH — The region’s digital recovery is going to be a long haul: Amazon said restoring its cloud operations in the UAE and Bahrain following damage from drone strikes earlier in the conflict will take several months, Reuters reports. The tech giant has suspended billing for affected customers in the region as it grapples with the physical aftermath of the conflict.
The current state of play: AWS’s service health dashboard currently lists 37 services across both countries as disrupted. The company is advising clients to migrate accessible workloads to other global regions or restore from remote backups.
LOGISTICS — AD Ports Group and Azerbaijan’s Azcon Holding signed an MoU to explore joint investments in ports, shipping, and digital trade hubs in Azerbaijan, according to a statement. The agreement targets infrastructure development to link Central Asian trade flows more tightly with European markets via the Middle Corridor.
UAE 💚Azerbaijan: The two countries’ trade and economic partnership agreement officially entered into force on 15 April. The CEPA aims to eliminate or reduce tariffs on 95% of goods and includes a dedicated services chapter designed to stimulate supply-chain integration.
The UAE has been expanding its reach across the Middle Corridor — this month, it signed a strategicagreement with Romania’s National Company Maritime Ports Administration to modernize the Port of Constanța, which is a European gateway for cargo from the Caspian Sea and Central Asia.
INVESTMENT WATCH — The UAE might draw in more investments from the US once it starts pumping more oil after its Opec exit, according to a JPMorgan note picked up by Reuters. This isn’t expected in the near term given the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, but rather in the medium and long term, when the UAE achieves its target of upping capacity to 5 mn bbl / d, up from around 4.8 bbl / d currently.
US President Donald Trump already gave the UAE a thumbs-up for the move, saying it was “great” and could help get oil prices down eventually. Trump has long been on the side of lowering oil prices, and previously said he planned to ask Opec to slash prices in order to restrict Russia’s revenue sources and put an end to the Russia-Ukraine war.
For the UAE, a lower oil price is not a major issue, which partially explains its exit from Opec. The country’s break-even price for oil is below USD 50 / bbl, versus USD 90 for Opec cartel leader Saudi Arabia. That’s partly driven by the fact that the UAE has succeeded at boosting its non-oil sector’s contribution to the economy, bringing it to 77.3% of GDP in 1Q 2025.
The UAE and the US are already partners in the fields of energy, tech, and AI, with the UAE pledging USD 60 bn in investments in energy in the US last year as part of a wider USD 1.4 tn investment pledge in the US. The UAE’s energy investments in the US are set to be valued at USD 440 bn by 2035.
ECONOMY — Dubai’s latest support package targets the emirate’s creatives, with AED 1 bn set to be rolled out in phases to help cultural and creative firms, as well as artists and SMEs working in the sector, according to Dubai Media Office. Since the start of the war, authorities have launched packages targeting the private sector, tourism, and banking.
Under the hood: Support is coming via both public and private sector partnerships, with the likes of DIFC, Dubai CommerCity, and Expo City also getting involved. Creatives can access venues at no charge, along with grants for exhibitions. Dubai is also rolling out training programs and media, marketing, and networking support.
ICYMI- These aren’t the first support measures targeting the creative sector. The UAE has been looking to incentivize local creative production, including by offering higher tax rebates for Emirates-based TV and film productions.
Data point
30x — that’s how much trucking movement has leaped since the war began. Truck traffic has jumped from normal levels to some 4.8k vehicles daily since the disruptions began, while more than 7 mn sqm of storage capacity has helped absorb the flow.
Port capacity has also expanded: Eastern ports’ capacity has expanded twentyfold, with over 262k containers handled. Crane capacity has exceeded 30 units, and Fujairah has handled over 2.8 mn metric tons of GCC bulk cargo. About 1.2k vessels are still being monitored and serviced in UAE waters.
This is mostly thanks to the lifting of restrictions on truck movements between ports, with waived gate fees on key corridors and the opening of customs fast lanes to cut clearance times. Cross-border rules were also loosened to allow empty trucks to circulate across GCC countries.
REMEMBER- When ships stall, trucks roll: EnterpriseAM Logistics a deep dive into how trucking saved the day by managing supply chain disruptions in the Gulf earlier in the conflict.
The big story abroad
Aside from the exchange of threats between Iran and the US, all eyes are on equities and earnings. Apple gave a solid sales forecast on the back of what it said was solid demand for its iPhone 17 and MacBook Neo, sending its shares up 4% in afterhours trading. It also announced a USD 100 bn share buyback program, and warned of the potential impacts of ongoing supply chain disruptions leading to MacBook shortages.
On the equities front, Wall Street is coming off of a record month, with stocks closing April at their highest since 2020, the Financial Times reports. Emerging markets also posted their strongest month since 2022. Both rallies were fueled by tech stocks and optimism over AI demand.
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