Good morning, everyone. Today’s issue reads like the UAE’s checkbook got caught in a wind tunnel — bns of USD scattered across continents before most of us had finished our coffee.
The sums, for those keeping score: EUR 40 bn (USD 46.5 bn) pledged to Germany, up to USD 22 bn on the table with India's Odisha, USD 3 bn into Elon Musk's tunnel-building outfit, USD 1 bn into China's biggest coffee chain.
Here's the pattern underneath the pattern: Almost every one of these cheques is heading somewhere far from home — Berlin, New Delhi, Beijing. Closer to home, the picture is messier: Algeria formally severed diplomatic ties with the UAE yesterday, the sharpest note yet in a relationship that's been fraying for years over Western Sahara and Sahel alignments.
While everyone else was tallying pledges, we picked up the phone and asked UAE retailers what the war actually did to their sales floor. The answer was nuanced: Destination malls built on tourist footfall lost half their sales overnight — while shops built on local, resident customers didn't just hold up, some had their best quarter in years. Read more in our Big Story Today.
WATCH THIS SPACE- Brics leaders land in New Delhi this weekend with their widest divisions on record — a room where the UAE’s balancing act between two blocs will be worth watching — and the Fed's FOMC meets Tuesday and Wednesday.
On deck for the week: Arabian Travel Market opens Monday, Altinvest convenes Wednesday, and we'll be watching whether DP World and FAB's tightened bond pricing this week marks the start of a broader reopening for Gulf issuers — war or not.
UAE to invest EUR 40 bn in Germany
President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed and Chancellor Friedrich Merz unveiled a EUR 40 bn (USD 46.5 bn) UAE investment package spanning industry, AI, digital infrastructure, and energy, during the president’s visit to Germany this week — more than doubling the EUR 34 bn Abu Dhabi has already put into the German economy, according to a joint declaration.
The pair also agreed to launch a German-UAE Investment Council and a new Strategic Dialogue meant to reboot the two countries' 2004 partnership, while 29 business-to-business agreements worth just over EUR 9.36 bn involving Adnoc, Masdar, RWE, and Covestro were also agreed, though no details have been disclosed as of yet. The pledge includes a commitment to develop 1 GW in data center capacity in Germany.
Berlin isn't a one-off — it's the latest entry in a growing ledger of Gulf mega-pledges. The UAE inked a nearly identical package with each of France and Italy last year, committing to 1 invest in 1 GW worth of data center capacity as part of a broader AI partnership, along with other energy-linked agreements in Italy. The France pledge has already yielded several ongoing projects, including a 1.4 GW AI data center campus near Paris which AI investor MGX is supporting, and a more recent USD 1 bn 50-satellite AI-enabled constellation project in France led by Emirati firms.
This lands even as the UAE sits five-plus months into a regional war that would give it every excuse to keep its capital close to home instead. Read together with the USD 30-50 bn AI/data-center commitment to France last year and the USD 40 bn and USD 51 bn pledges to Italy and Turkey, the pattern looks like a deliberate spread of sovereign firepower across partners who can help it diversify and secure supply chains and, ideally, host equipment production that helps route around export restrictions.
Yes, but: Big numbers don't always turn into big cheques. The UAE’s pledges haven’t been as productive elsewhere, with none of the USD 50 bn the UAE pledged in Canada last year having moved as Ottawa's own Major Projects Office said it simply has no shovel-ready projects to deploy the money into earlier this year. Germany looks further along — a signed council, a business forum, and named corporate partners tend to travel faster than a headline figure.
Odisha’s Abu Dhabi pitch bears fruit
India’s Adani Group and the UAE’s International Holding Group are exploring INR 2.1 tn (USD 22 bn) worth of agreements, as per the Chief Minister’s (CM) Office. The two will explore 14 projects that could employ as many as 868k people.
REMEMBER- Odisha’s chief minister’s visit to Abu Dhabi and Dubai wraps up today and has been targeting institutional capital and partnerships across manufacturing and infrastructure. IHC just this week joined a consortium backing the USD 1 bn equity raise for Adani Airport Holdings.
A sizable pitch: The proposed projects span the metal downstream industries, slurry pipelines, critical minerals, rare earths, chemicals, petrochemicals, renewable energy equipment, healthcare, industrial infrastructure, tourism, and the skills and sports infrastructure.
IN CONTEXT- The agreement expands on an MoU inked in July, initially focused on a USD 11.5 bn integrated aluminum complex — billed as India’s largest foreign investment in metals. So far, Odisha has identified land for two main parts of the aluminium project — an alumina refinery in Rayagada and a smelter in Sundargarh.
Plus: The state is exploring collaboration with petrochem major Borouge on a chemicals-processing complex that could use feedstock from Indian Oil’s planned petrochemicals plant at Paradip.
Algeria snaps ties with UAE
Algeria has severed diplomatic relations with the UAE, accusing it of a series of “provocative or hostile” actions, without specifying what prompted the decision, according to a statement from Algeria’s Foreign Ministry.
This is a sharp escalation in a relationship that had been deteriorating for years. Algeria’s Foreign Ministry said it had exhausted “all means of preserving bilateral relations” and gave the UAE Ambassador 48 hours to comply with the decision.
BACKGROUND- The rupture comes against a backdrop of diverging positions on regional issues, particularly over Western Sahara, where the UAE backs Morocco’s sovereignty claim, while Algeria supports the Polisario Front. The two countries also have divergent alliances in the Sahel region.
UAE pushes back: The UAE said it “hopes this decision will be temporary” and reaffirmed the “importance it attaches to its relations with all countries and its commitment to developing and strengthening them,” including with Algeria, in a statement on Wam. Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, also took to X shortly after Algeria’s announcement and said, without explicitly naming Algeria, that diplomacy should be based on “rationality, communication and clarity of interests” instead of “riddles and signals that require decoding,”
PSA
WEATHER- The mercury will reach 43°C in Dubai today, before cooling to 32°C, and 42°C in Abu Dhabi before cooling to 30°C, according to our favorite weather app.
The big story abroad
We have an AI paradox this morning. The industry's loudest safety warning yet landed the same day as one of its strongest earnings prints. Anthropic said it disrupted a Russia-linked espionage campaign and the largest known “distillation” attempt against Claude — Alibaba allegedly ran 151 mn-plus exchanges with the model to train its Qwen models, while Moonshot and DeepSeek allegedly harvested live customer chats — and blocked researchers in China, Russia, and Yemen from using Claude on weapons software, plus several bioweapons-research attempts.
This all unfolded against the backdrop of a wider debate over whether AI is moving too fast. OpenAI's Sam Altman is now said to be weighing whether to pace development after chief scientist Jakub Pachocki warned no one's prepared for the speed of progress, and Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon quit this week accusing both labs of “racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives” — a post viewed more than 150 mn times.
None of that anxiety is showing up in the money yet. Oracle's first-quarter revenue rose 30% to USD 19.3 bn and adjusted earnings beat forecasts at USD 1.92 a share, easing fears its AI buildout was straining the balance sheet. The company booked over USD 30 bn of fresh AI cloud contracts, pushing its backlog to a record USD 664 bn, and held its USD 90-95 bn spending target even as free cash flow beat expectations at negative USD 5.4 bn. Shares rose 4% in extended trading.
CLOSER TO HOME- Iran-aligned Houthi forces seized the port city of Mocha and pushed toward the Hanish islands near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Red Sea route Saudi Arabia has leaned on since the Hormuz corridor effectively closed to a fifth of global oil flows. Brent crude rose to USD 108.68 a barrel and WTI to USD 103.45, putting both benchmarks on track to close a week above USD 100 for the first time in nearly four months.
That oil spike is now colliding with bond markets too. The 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to 4.96% on Friday — its highest since 2023 and closing in on the psychologically loaded 5% mark — as traders priced in roughly a 70% chance the Fed raises rates on 16 September. A hotter-than-expected US inflation reading due Friday could tip it either way. (Bloomberg)
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