Abu Dhabi makes more than one gas move

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: The port beyond Hormuz is getting bigger + the UAE’s USD 50 bn investments for Canada are stuck at the gate

Good morning, everyone. Yesterday’s issue saw a rare focus on inbound capital — today it’s back to outbound.

Adnoc Distribution is venturing into South Africa with 580 new fuel stations; Adia is anchoring India's biggest asset-manager IPO; and an Abu Dhabi royal family office just wrote a USD 1.13 bn check into global LNG.

That last one is interesting: It’s a reminder that the sovereign funds aren't the only Abu Dhabi money that matters. There’s a whole layer of family capital quietly building positions, and we’re not the only ones taking note.

Bloomberg is also taking a look at AC Limited — the family office of UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed — a firm so discreet that even some of its own staff reportedly didn't know who was behind it, yet its money turns up in Amazon and Microsoft stock, Blackstone's real estate debt funds, and a Citic-run buyout vehicle in China. Today’s LNG bet comes from a different Al Nahyan family office, but it’s the same underlying story — royal capital increasingly acting like its own investment institution, running alongside (not through) the sovereign funds.

Meanwhile, Adnoc’s gas book keeps filling up, with Ruwais’ LNG now already past 90% committed. Plus: We speak with Mashreq Kuwait’s country head about the financing pipeline coming out of the recent conflict, and why Kuwait’s growth story is interesting for a UAE lender.

Canada leaves USD 50 bn UAE investment stuck at the gate

None of the USD 50 bn in investments the UAE committed to Canada last year has moved yet. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s own Major Projects Office (MPO) told a visiting UAE delegation mid-June that Canada has no shovel-ready projects to deploy capital into, the Financial Times reports, citing three officials it says are familiar with the matter.

Even a USD 1 bn critical minerals agreement Carney said in November was “in the process of being finalized” still hasn’t materialized. It’s not a UAE-specific issue — former Quebec premier Jean Charest, who co-chairs the UAE-Canada Business Council, says the MPO is giving the exact same answer to everyone right now: “we’re not ready.”

Abu Dhabi’s line: A UAE official pushed back on the delay framing, telling the salmon-colored paper the investments are simply moving through standard due diligence — the review and planning phase any foreign investment goes through before deployment. The official added that the two sides remain closely engaged “on all levels,” calling the relationship one of the most important partnerships globally.

Where the UAE might actually plug in: Carney recently announced a fresh slate of projects meant to catalyze well over USD 141 bn in new investment — including a proposed 1 mn bbl / d pipeline from Alberta to British Columbia’s west coast that currently has no private backers. Charest says the UAE delegation has specifically “raised interest” in the pipeline and is broadly circling Canada’s energy sector.

What to watch: Carney is under pressure to sell “shovel-ready” at the upcoming Toronto investor summit in September, which aims to generate USD 1 tn in total investment over five years. Also: Carney has ordered his staff to finalize a UAE-Canada trade agreement he wants signed this month — a sign he’s still pushing to move the relationship forward even as the investment side stalls.

ADX lifts the cap

The ADX is removing daily price limits on ETFs and futures contracts listed on the market starting 3 August, allowing these instruments to move with the market freely without being throttled by trading bands, according to a statement (pdf). The exchange says the change should reduce disruptions caused by temporary halts or suspensions when instruments hit their daily limits.

Why it matters: The change matters most when markets move fast. ETFs and futures should be able to reprice more smoothly, while investors using them to trade or hedge get fewer artificial stop-starts. The ADX says it will still be able to use temporary trading halts in exceptional cases to manage volatility.

Dubai gets cheaper — on paper

Dubai dropped seven places to rank as the 14th most expensive city globally for the ultra-rich, according to Julius Baer’s latest Global Wealth and Lifestyle Report 2026 (pdf). But this is not really a Dubai-is-getting-cheaper story. The wealth management group says the fall was driven more by other cities getting pricier — especially those lifted by stronger currencies — than by any meaningful cooling in Dubai prices.

What really happened: The AED’s peg to the weakening USD made Dubai look relatively cheaper in the USD-denominated index, even if costs for residents spending in AED have not changed much. The data was also collected before the Iran war, meaning any impact from the latest regional escalation wasn’t reflected in the ranking.

Good news, with caveats: Dubai’s “cheaper” ranking could help its pitch to global wealth — but only on a relative basis. Luxury lifestyle costs rose 10.2% globally in USD terms, while Middle East HNWIs were still in expansion mode before the war: 43% said they had invested more and spent more over the past year, even as 43% also cut their risk appetite.

ICYMI- Analysts previously told us that the UAE is expected to see a large net outflow of HNWIs this year, with inquiries for the UAE residence program already falling 13% in 1Q. However, experts also said that the trends could be temporary and not a meaningful reallocation of wealth or mobility.

Dubai approves world’s first commercial vertiport

The world’s first commercial vertiport is coming to Dubai, after the General Civil Aviation Authority and Skyports Infrastructure gave the VDX vertiport the green light for electric vertical take-off and landing operations, Al Bayan reports.

The details: Developed by Skyports Infrastructure, the four-story facility is designed to handle up to 170k passengers a year and will be the first hub in Dubai’s air taxi network plan, with three additional vertiports under development at Palm Jumeirah, Dubai Marina, and Downtown Dubai.

IN CONTEXT- The UAE has been pushing to develop its eVTOL network in the past few years. Electric aircraft developer Joby Aviation was aiming to launch its first vertiport at Dubai International Airport by 1Q of this year, while Abu Dhabi is looking to set up more than 10 vertiports in the emirate.

DFSA looks to make DIFC’s funds less box-ticky

The Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) is proposing overhauling the DIFC’s Collective Investment Fund framework, publishing a consultation (pdf) that would mark the largest changes to the framework since 2010. The proposals aim to give fund managers more room to run hybrid and multi-strategy funds without letting risk management fall through the cracks, according to a statement.

The potential changes include moving away from rigid specialist classifications, scrapping some requirements for credit funds, and updating master-feeder structures. We’ll have a full breakdown of the changes and what they mean in tomorrow’s issue.

Expanding beyond Hormuz

Khorfakkan is about to get a lot bigger: Gulftainer’s Khorfakkan terminal is undergoing a major expansion that will push capacity past 10 mn TEUs, alongside 2-3 mn TEUs of inland logistics capacity, Khaleej Times reports, citing Gulftainer as saying. Gulftainer hasn’t disclosed a timeline or cost estimate, nor has it said whether the 10 mn TEU target is a near- or long-term goal.

Khorfakkan — the UAE’s only port located outside Hormuz — stands out as Gulftainer’s flagship terminal, along with Sharjah Container Terminal at Port Khalid. The firm extended its 1986 concession agreement in 2023 for another 35 years to manage, operate, and develop the two terminals. Khorfakkan is an essential gateway for services to the Arabian Gulf, the Indian Subcontinent, the Gulf of Oman, and East African markets. The terminal spans some 450k sqm, hosting a 70-hectare facility and a total capacity of 5 mn TEUs.

There’s more: Gulftainer unveiled a USD 2 bn global trade infrastructure strategy during a press conference at Khorfakkan Port, Wam reports. The initiative will combine ports, shipping, and AI supply chains into one platform.

More time for thinking on Orascom-OCI merger

ADX- and EGX-listed Orascom Construction is giving its proposed merger with OCI Global some more time, pushing back the deadline to fulfill all conditions to 30 December, Orascom said in a disclosure (pdf). Now, OCI is working to meet those conditions and will hold a shareholder meeting to vote on the merger.

BACKGROUND- The Cairo-born contractor and the Dutch-listed fertilizer player — both backed by Egyptian bn’aire Nassef Sawiris — are looking to create what they’re billing as a global infrastructure and investment platform based in Abu Dhabi, with a USD 14 bn backlog to boot. A Dutch court had blocked OCI from voting on its own side, giving veto power to independent board members.

ICYMI- Meanwhile, NNS Holding, the Cyprus-incorporated arm of Sawiris’ family office that backs Orascom, is pushing ahead with its voluntary allcash public offer for all of OCI Global’s issued and outstanding shares that it announced last month in a bid to break the deadlock. OCI’s board is backing the offer on the condition that the bid is combined with the wider Orascom transaction.

PSA

WEATHER- We’re in for a high of 41°C in both Dubai and Abu Dhabi, along with a low of 31°C, according to our favorite weather app.

The big story abroad

The US-Iran conflict has reignited, as the US military launched a series of retaliatory strikes against Iran, putting at risk the interim agreement inked between the two sides last month. The US Central Command said the attacks came in response to Iranian attacks on commercial vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz earlier this week. The US strikes were reportedly launched against military targets.

Washington also revoked a waiver that allowed Tehran to sell oil openly on global markets. The 60-day exemption was issued last month, allowing the Islamic Republic to conduct such transactions in USD — even to US importers.

Iran has not claimed responsibility for the attacks on vessels in the strait, but reiterated its authority over parts of the waterway in a document submitted to the International Maritime Organization — the United Nations’ shipping agency.

We’ll be closely watching the Iranian response and how these developments impact oil prices — which dipped below USD 80 / bbl after the agreement and now sit around the USD 75 mark.

Meanwhile, in the world of AI: E-commerce behemoth Amazon plans to bankroll its AI investments by raising USD 25 bn in USD-denominated bond sales. This dovetails into a recent trend of tech players resorting to debt markets to build AI infrastructure, as seen by the likes of Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta.

The latest offering from Meta’s AI overhaul is here — an image-generation model. Muse Spark Image can be used to generate images from scratch or edit existing images. It can also be used to power new editing features on Instagram.

And on Wall Street: Private equity firms are now saddled with a nine-year backlog of unsold companies — some 13.5k in the US alone — as potential buyers hesitate to buy software-heavy portfolios amid fears AI will disrupt tech-based business models, analysis by PwC finds. For reference, buyout firms typically aim to hold investments for around three to five years.

PLUS- Nato allies went on a USD 50 bn defense agreement spree during the summit in Ankara, signalling an attempt by Europe to meet demands from US President Donald Trump.

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Circle your calendar

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

Adnoc Distribution to acquire Shell South Africa’s downstream business

580 new stations, one new country: Adnoc Distribution signed a definitive agreement to acquire Shell Downstream South Africa (SDSA) in a transaction valued at around USD 1 bn before debt and working capital adjustments, according to a press release (pdf). The acquisition hands Adnoc 580 fuel stations plus SDSA's wholesale fuels, aviation, and lubricants businesses and is expected to close in 2027.

Why it matters: This is Adnoc Distribution's fourth retail market and its first outside the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt — and South Africa isn't a random pick. Regulated pricing there insulates retailers' margins from inflation, FX swings, and oil-price volatility, giving Adnoc steadier earnings visibility than most of the deregulated markets it operates in, per an investor presentation (pdf). Adnoc says the acquisition will lift earnings per share by around 6% in its first full year post-close.

The numbers: The transaction would expand Adnoc Distribution’s global network by 55% to nearly 1.6k service stations, increase convenience stores by 70% to around 900, and lift annual fuel volumes by around 20% to 19.2 bn liters.

The mechanics: Adnoc will retain the Shell brand across retail and lubricants under a long-term licensing agreement. Post-close, it plans to sell a 28% stake in SDSA to a local empowerment partner and an employee stock ownership plan, to comply with South Africa's Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment rules.

Abu Dhabi family capital just joined Saudi Aramco and Mitsubishi as a MidOcean Energy shareholder

An investment firm owned by members of Abu Dhabi’s ruling family is making its first major move into the global LNG sector: The Private Department of Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalid Al Nahyan will invest USD 1.13 bn in MidOcean Energy, the LNG company formed and managed by US energy-focused private equity firm EIG, according to a press release.

The two sides are also setting up a strategic partnership covering capital aggregation, agreement origination, and institutional investment across the UAE and select regional markets, with energy and adjacent infrastructure as a stated area to explore next.

Why this matters: The transaction marks the Private Department’s first investment in the global LNG sector, highlighting the growing appetite among UAE investors for long-life gas assets. While separate from Adnoc’s investment strategy, the agreement reinforces Abu Dhabi’s broader push to expand its presence across the global gas value chain.

BACKGROUND- MidOcean has scaled fast since EIG launched it, building a balance sheet north of USD 5 bn and stakes in LNG projects across Canada, Latin America, and Australia. Its shareholder roster already includes Saudi Aramco and Mitsubishi — the Private Department joins a shareholder base already stacked with strategic, not just financial, backers.

The investment also follows MidOcean’s broader equity fundraising effort back in March, when the company raised more than USD 1.2 bn and was targeting up to USD 2 bn from new investors to fund further expansion of its global LNG portfolio.

Unexplained delays and blocks reportedly hit Saudi to UAE bank transfers

Saudi-UAE transfers getting stuck? Payments from banks in Saudi Arabia to accounts in the UAE have been delayed, returned, or blocked outright since at least May, often with no explanation from the banks moving them, a source in the know tells EnterpriseAM, confirming news first picked up by the Financial Times and Bloomberg.

What’s going on? The alleged cases involved money leaving a Saudi account and never landing in Dubai, some transfers held for about a week and then bouncing back, and electronic payments refused with a mere “transaction failed,” the FT reports.

What we’re hearing: Our source says the issue has been happening for about a month. They think it most likely reflects the Saudi Central Bank tightening compliance screening on inbound and outbound transfers rather than a blanket block.

Official statements point in the same direction. The Saudi Central Bank said the financial sector “operates within a robust regulatory framework” with “no direct restrictions on specific countries,” and that banks “apply risk-based measures consistently across all transactions.” The UAE’s economy ministry also said it has had no complaints from private-sector firms about transfer problems.

If true, this would create friction in the Arab world’s largest trade relationship. Bilateral trade between the two hit USD 25.7 bn last year, up from USD 21.7 bn in 2024, and many firms run their Saudi-facing business through Dubai hubs. Some companies caught in the delays are reportedly already rerouting through Bahrain or onto costlier rails like PayPal to keep goods moving.

Why it matters: The backdrop is the sharpest UAE-Saudi rift in years, with tension over Yemen reaching a boiling point in December, followed by Abu Dhabi’s April exit from Opec. Whether these snags are routine de-risking or a symptom of that strain, they raise the cost and the uncertainty of moving money between Dubai and Riyadh.

The war’s impact on Kuwait’s power and utility infrastructure is opening a financing pipeline Mashreq wants in on

The shadow of regional conflict may dampen the appetite of some foreign investors (albeit not all, if the recent investment blitz in the UAE is anything to go off of). However, regional institutions will likely be stepping up their game as they lean into the Gulf’s compelling growth story and expanding pipeline of prospects.

There is no shortage of lending prospects for regional banks, Mashreq’s Kuwait Head Ammar Boumijdad tells EnterpriseAM. In fact, if anything, there’ll be more to come in the near term, he adds, and they’ll carry even more weight as regional countries look to repair affected infrastructure and diversify their supply chains amid ongoing supply chain disruptions.

REMEMBER- The Gulf is now facing a whopping USD 58 bn repair bill for existing energy infrastructure, as well as rising raw material costs.

For regional players, the current climate is less a reason to retreat and more an opening to step up. That’s especially the case for countries in the region with plenty of room to grow and diversify into different sectors, like Kuwait.

Kuwait’s growth story is an interesting one. The country is benefiting from a raft of reforms implemented since the dissolution of parliament in 2024, including the removal of the requirement for foreign companies to operate through a local agent, a higher sovereign debt ceiling, and a big push in spending on projects and infrastructure. Even through the conflict, Kuwait awarded some USD 8.1 bn in contracts in 1Q 2026 alone, up more than fivefold y-o-y, with a USD 36 bn project pipeline as of the end of last year.

The regional war has had an impact on the region’s infrastructure, particularly facilities like power stations and other critical utilities. “We’ve had initial talks with contractors; and we told them: we’re ready to support you. We’re ready to partner with clients by providing competitive and well-structured financing solutions — considering our situation,” Boumijdad says. Projects that will need financing support span power stations, renewables, and infrastructure, he adds.

The shift to disciplined growth

The bank’s ability to offer this support today is the result of a multi-year strategic pivot. Since starting operations in Kuwait in 2009, Mashreq has moved away from the fragmented retail and SME sectors to focus almost exclusively on large corporates, government-related entities, and multinationals.

“Our risk appetite has changed [over time],” Boumijdad notes. Over the last decade, and particularly through the last five years, the bank has pursued a strategy of “disciplined growth,” he adds. This means being highly selective with new-to-bank clients and during periods of high uncertainty, focusing on deepening relationships with existing, high-quality clients.

“In situations where uncertainty is high, we like to deepen our relationship with existing [clients] because we know their risk profile,” Boumijdad explains.

The multinationals window

The bank is also tracking a surge in interest from multinational giants following the removal of the local agent requirement in 2024, which is transforming Kuwait’s investment landscape, Boumijdad tells us. Companies like Google and Microsoft are already moving to build massive data centers in the country, supported by government land grants and facilities.

“Kuwait has strong fundamentals: USD 1 tn+ sovereign wealth, a strong credit profile — still rated AA- — and low sovereign debt giving plenty of room to borrow, which gives comfort for any investors [who want to] come,” he adds. “As regulations evolve, capital markets deepen, and strategic projects accelerate, banks with regional scale and international connectivity, like ourselves, will play a critical role,” he adds.

For Mashreq, which is a regional bank at its core but is also international, with offices in the US and across various parts of Asia, this is prime territory. The lender is in a strong position to finance companies with presence across those different corridors — Kuwait and the US, or Kuwait and the rest of the GCC. “Instead of going all the way there to a new country and a new bank that hasn’t dealt with you before, you’ll be dealing with us — we know you and we know your risk profile and accept it,” Boumijdad says.

Adia to anchor India’s biggest asset manager’s IPO

Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (Adia) is set to anchor the USD 1.2 bn IPO of India’s largest asset manager, SBI Funds Management, alongside Singapore’s GIC, Reuters reports, citing unnamed sources.

The details so far: SBI Funds — a joint venture between State Bank of India and France's Amundi — manages INR 12.5 tn (USD 131.1 bn) in global assets and is targeting a valuation of around USD 12.3 bn. The two shareholders plan to sell a combined 10% stake, with the offering expected to open next week.

Demand already outstrips supply: Institutional commitments have come in at nearly five times the allocation on offer, led by domestic investors alongside Gulf and Singaporean sovereign funds, Reuters adds. Even so, SBI Funds is reserving half the offering for retail investors.

REMEMBER- Adia has been on a run in Indian markets. It recently anchored Kotak Alternate Asset Managers' USD 1 bn India real estate fund with a commitment of more than USD 675 mn. It also backed Rajasthan-based KRN Heat Exchangers' USD 36.8 mn QIP and participated in Acme Solar's USD 328 mn equity raise.

Advisers: The book-running lead managers include Kotak Mahindra Capital, Axis Bank, SBI Capital Markets, Motilal Oswal, ICICI Securities, JM Financial, and the Indian units of Citigroup, HSBC, and Bank of America. Kfin Technologies is the registrar for the offer.

Salama names Humaid Alqutam as chairman, rebuilds its board committees after last year’s capital restructuring

Islamic Arab Ins. Company (Salama) tapped a new chairman. The Dubai-listed composite insurer elected Humaid Mohammad Obaid Alqutam to the role at a 2 July board meeting, alongside Fareed Lutfi Al Harmouzi (LinkedIn) as vice chairman, according to a statement. Alqutami succeeds Essa Alzaabi, who chaired the board through Salama’s capital restructuring and stepped down after that process wrapped.

Meet the new board: Alqutami formerly served as health and education minister, later chairing the Federal Authority for Government Human Resources and leading the Dubai Health Authority. He also chaired Commercial Bank of Dubai and sat on the Executive Council of the Government of Dubai. Meanwhile, Al Harmouzi is the ins.-industry counterweight. Over a three-decade career, he served as CEO of Alliance Ins., president of Dubai Ins. Group, and managing director of Dubai Financial Group’s ins. business. Currently, he serves as secretary general of both the Emirates Ins. Federation and the Gulf Ins. Federation.

The move comes alongside the restructuring of its Audit, Risk, Nomination and Remuneration, and Investment committees, signaling a broader governance refresh. Its capital restructuring last year — which lifted paid-up capital to AED 820 mn — aimed to focus on rebuilding underwriting capacity, reactivating distribution channels, and pursuing growth across life and wealth, health, and property and casualty lines.

A couple of energy supply agreements, Dubizzle invests in Takeem, and Bitcoin Suisse secures ADGM approval

90% of Ruwais’ LNG capacity is now committed

Adnoc has signed a 15-year agreement to supply Inpex, Japan's largest exploration and production company, with 1 mn tons a year of LNG from the Ruwais LNG project, starting when the plant comes online in 2028, according to a statement.

The Inpex agreement pushes Ruwais LNG's long-term commitments past 90% of its 9.6 mtpa capacity — with close to a quarter of that now spoken for by Japanese buyers alone — years before the facility ships anything.

ALSO- More UAE-Japan energy cooperation to come? Adnoc and XRG also signed a strategic collaboration agreement with Mitsui, covering crude, LNG, sulfur, shipping, and chemicals, plus joint international investment through XRG, according to a press release.

Fujairah gov’t snaps up supply from Etihad Refinery

Fujairah's government has signed on as a customer of Etihad Refinery, Etihad Energy Holding's downstream subsidiary, inking a 10-year offtake agreement to buy its gasoline output, per a statement (pdf). The financial details weren’t disclosed but the 10-year agreement came into force on Monday, Khaleej Times reports.

ICYMI- Etihad Energy Holding said last month that it was spending USD 300-350 mn to develop a 19k bbl / d refinery in Fujairah. The plant will process Euro5-compliant gasoline and other high-value products, like 95-octane gasoline, low-sulfur diesel, lubricating oil, and naphtha.

More to come? Etihad Energy’s CEO Saif Al Hazaymeh had said that the project was part of an AED 1.5 bn three-year investment plan covering oil and gas and maritime shipping. It's also the latest sign of money flowing into Fujairah specifically. The emirate has become a focal point for UAE energy infrastructure investment, including pipeline capacity built to route around the Strait of Hormuz if there's ever a disruption there.

Dubizzle invests in Takeem to expand rental services

UAE-based proptech startup Takeem has secured an investment from Dubizzle’s early-stage investment arm, Dubizzle Group Ventures, according to a press release. The investment comes months after the startup secured funds from Reach Middle East. The exact investment ticket wasn’t disclosed.

BACKGROUND- Takeem aims to address structural inefficiencies and headaches in the real estate market, including liquidity issues and limited transparency, through its integrated assurance platform targeting both GCC landlords and tenants, its co-founder Rakesh Mavath previously told us. It uses rental data to assess risks and provide landlords with protection against defaults.

IN CONTEXT- The UAE’s proptech sector has been gaining momentum recently, with the likes of Stake and Prypco raising fresh funds, and Dubizzle taking a stake in Tern last month.

Bitcoin Suisse secures ADGM approval for UAE expansion

Swiss digital asset firm Bitcoin Suisse’s regional subsidiary has secured regulatory approval from ADGM’S Financial Services Regulatory Authority, allowing the firm to offer regulated digital asset services to institutional and professional clients in the UAE, according to a press release. It had secured preliminary approval last year to expand in the region.

The details: Through its UAE subsidiary, Bitcoin Suisse will provide regulated custody, trading, and digital asset management services. The company said it manages USD 3.7 bn in crypto assets globally and is the fourth-biggest staking operator in the world.

Oxford Economics sees faster growth ahead, conditional on a peace that could still fall apart

The global economy is set to pick up speed in the second half of 2026 — but only if the US-Iran truce holds. Global GDP is expected to expand by 3.1% annualized in 2H, with the acceleration concentrated in developing economies, according to an Oxford Economics report seen by EnterpriseAM. The mechanism is straightforward — lower oil prices lift real disposable income and consumption. The condition to see it realized is less clear.

A coin flip peace

Oxford Economics puts the odds of a durable US-Iran agreement at 50-50. The conflict initially drove oil prices higher, lifted inflation, and weighed on growth. The ceasefire reversed that — sending prices lower and reopening the strait to shipping. But the truce is fragile. Renewed military strikes at the end of June mean the breakdown scenario is very much alive, and a return to hostilities would push inflationary pressure back up fast.

The supply chain exposure

Western AI investment has a strait-shaped vulnerability. US AI spending relies on components from Northeast Asia and ASEAN — regions exposed to disruptions in energy shipments through Hormuz. Critical components also depend on specialized manufacturers in South Korea and Germany, leaving the supply chain exposed to unexpected shocks.

China benefited from the disruptions, but that won’t last. Chinese exports benefited from the supply chain disruptions caused by the war, helping offset weakness in traditional export sectors and restrictions on refined petroleum products exports. But over the medium term, a stronger RMB, rising trade barriers, higher factory prices, and weaker global demand could leave China sitting on growing overcapacity.

The tariff calendar

New US tariffs are coming in July. The Trump administration will introduce new Section 301 tariffs to replace Section 122, which expires on 24 July. The replacement is expected to be marginally higher, targeting USD 25-30 bn in monthly revenue to help fund the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The revised USMCA agreement, meanwhile, is no longer expected to lower tariffs, with current rates to stay in place indefinitely.

AND- Brussels and Beijing are heading for a collision. The European Commission expanded its trade-defense investigations against China to more than 50, with duties already imposed on electric vehicles, solar supply chains, and glass fiber. New economic security tools are also planned by September, raising the risk of Chinese retaliation.

What changes if the truce holds

Central banks get room to ease. Lower oil prices would reduce inflation pressures, giving central banks less reason to keep raising interest rates. The ECB’s case for additional hikes disappears — the Fed, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan are all expected to take a less aggressive path than the current one. A renewed escalation, though, pushes everyone back toward tightening.

Several elections could reshape the picture heading into 2027. US midterm elections are expected to produce a divided government even if Democrats win both chambers, limiting prospects for additional fiscal stimulus while raising the odds of a debt ceiling standoff. Meanwhile, Israel’s parliamentary elections could influence ceasefire negotiations with Iran. German state elections may also test coalition stability and complicate the ECB’s outlook.

The biggest upside risk to the global outlook is stronger-than-expected AI investment and productivity gains, particularly in the US and Asia. Sizable spending on data centers, utilities, and major projects such as Australia’s 2032 Olympics could deliver a bigger growth boost than current forecasts assume.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asia-Pacific markets are mixed in early trading this morning. South Korea’s Kospi is down 0.5% after Samsung’s 2Q preliminary earnings triggered a selloff that pushed the tech giant down 4.4%. Japan’s Nikkei is also down, while the Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng are looking at moderate gains.

ADX	9,941	+0.2% (YTD: -0.5%)
DFM	6,094	+0.1% (YTD: +0.8%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	4,802	+0.1% (YTD: -1.8%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	3.4% o/n	4.1% 1 yr
TASI	10,852	+0.4% (YTD: +3.5%)
EGX30	53,006	+1.0% (YTD: +26.7%)
S&P 500	7,504	-0.5% (YTD: +9.6%)
FTSE 100	10,666	+0.1% (YTD: +7.4%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,320	-1.2% (YTD: +9.0%)
Brent crude	USD 74.24	+2.8%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.28	+0.5%
Gold	USD 4,110	-1.1%
BTC	USD 63,543	-1.1% (YTD: -27.5%)
Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF	AED 3.73	0.0% (YTD: -0.5%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	151.95	-0.2% (YTD: 0.0%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	16.13	+3.6% (YTD: +7.9%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The DFM rose 0.1% yesterday on turnover of AED 488 mn. The index is up 0.8% YTD.

In the green: Islamic Arab Insurance Company (+4.0%), Dubai Islamic Insurance and Reinsurance Co. (+3.7%), and Spinneys 1961 Holding (+2.4%).

In the red: United Foods Company (-4.8%), Lunate S&P UAE UCITS ETF - Share A - Accumulating (-3.3%), and Al Firdous Holdings (-2.4%).

Over on the ADX, the index rose 0.2% on turnover of AED 877.9 mn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was up 0.1%.

CALENDAR

JULY

28-29 July (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

SEPTEMBER

1-3 September (Tuesday-Thursday: Middle East Energy, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): International Property Show, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

12-13 September (Saturday-Sunday): Emirates International Congress on AI & Visionary Leadership in Transforming Healthcare, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

14-17 September (Monday-Thursday): Arabian Travel Market, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

15-16 September (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

29-30 September (Tuesday-Wednesday): AFCM Annual Conference, Abu Dhabi.

OCTOBER

4-10 October (Sunday-Saturday): World Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

5-7 October (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

12-14 October (Monday-Wednesday): Airport Show, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

14-15 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Sharjah Investment Forum, Jawaher Reception and Convention Center, Sharjah.

13-15 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Annual Meeting of Global Future Leaders, Dubai.

20-22 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Health Summit, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

27-28 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): Arab Competition Forum, Dubai.

27-28 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

30 October (Friday): Large businesses achieving annual revenues equal to or above AED 50 mn must appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation.

Signposted to happen sometime in October 2026:

Abu Dhabi Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

NOVEMBER

2-6 November (Monday-Friday): Dubai Future Finance Week, Dubai.

4 November (Wednesday): Digital Transformation Summit, Sofitel, Abu Dhabi.

9-10 November (Monday-Tuesday): Annual government meetings, Abu Dhabi.

9-12 November (Monday-Thursday): EMEA Council on Hotel, Restaurant and Institutional Education Conference, Dubai College of Tourism, Dubai.

10-12 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Dubai International Electric Vehicle Exhibition & Conference, Dubai World Trade Center.

16-18 November (Monday-Wednesday): World Police Summit, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

DECEMBER

2-4 December (Wednesday-Friday): UN Water Conference, UAE.

4-6 December (Friday-Sunday): Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, Abu Dhabi.

8-9 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Capital Market Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

8-9 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

8-10 December (Tuesday-Thursday): Abu Dhabi Water & Power Week, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

1 January: Deadline for large businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1Q 2027: Completion of the first phase of Hassyan seawater desalination project;
1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): World Governments Summit;
31 March: Small businesses with annual revenues of less than AED 50 mn are obliged to contract with an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
31 March: Government entities are required to appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
21-22 April (Wednesday-Thursday): Token2049, Dubai;
1 July: Deadline for small businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1 October: Deadline for governments to implement e-invoicing;
Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2028:

Artificial Intelligence Summit.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2029:

Sibos 2029 organized by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Dubai;
Annual Meetings of the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund, Abu Dhabi;
The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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